Imaging The Conservative Movement After Blues Won A Second American Civil War

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

This is extremely speculative, but I it seems to me that IF — and this is a huge IF — there was some sort of Second American Civil War and Blues won and there was a Second Reconstruction….then I think The Lincoln Project would be see itself at the center of a re-imagined American conservative movement.

But a lot would depend on how bad any such Second American Civil War got. If we bombed ourselves into the Stone Age over “vibes” then it probably won’t make much difference one way or another for a few decades. But if we managed to topple Tyrant Trump in some sort of “Glorious Revolution” then some very interesting things might happen when our politics snapped back into place.

I continue, however, to think that we have two choices at the moment — either Trump wins and we slide peacefully into autocracy or he loses and we punt our political problems down the road another four years.

The other, sexier options, the ones involving civil war and revolution that I’ve written about at great length over the years…I just don’t see them happening at the moment. I don’t want them to happen and I don think they’re going to happen.

But I can’t predict the future.

Hard MAGA Power Vs. Soft Woke Power

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One thing I’ve gleaned from talking to my far more conservative relatives — whom I love dearly — is their abject fear of some future tyranny coming not from the hard power of the state but the soft power of “woke corporations.”

Of course, they’re complicit in the rise of the American fascist corporate state because not only do they not take the looming fascism of MAGA seriously, but they because they, in general, agree with that fascism it would all be a lulz.

Not until the hard power of the MAGA fascist state is used to not only deport 20 million undocumented people — which they want — but to also murder me in cold blood — which they don’t want — will they take notice of how there is a definite difference between hard and soft power.

So, what happens is, conservatives would far rather conflate issues and get REALLY WORKED UP over the “abuses” of the woke than they would have to give serious answers to questions like, “What happens when the massive infrastructure built out to deport 20 million people is used to murder people you love?”

They usually either don’t answer, make a joked to change the subject or piviot to the latest conservative talking point.

It can be very, very frustrating.

The rise of a MAGA fascist state in the US is not an abstract to me — I’m really beginning to worry that if Trump becomes POTUS again that I’m going to be murdered in cold blood by an ICE agent — or whatever — because I simply will not, can not shut the fuck up about how I think Trump is a fat fuck cocksucker.

But my conservative relatives — whom I love dearly — just lulz all this. As long is those brown families are torn asunder at the border they’ll be content. As long as a stray trans person doesn’t get a free can of But Light, they will be content. As long as the social safety net is gutted and only fools and poors pay taxes, they will be content.

The list goes on.

It will be interesting to see what my fate is. If I’m lucky, I will be able to escape the country should Trump win re-election later this year.

A Darkness At Noon: What If Trump Goes Full Tyrant in 2025?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I keep saying — I can’t predict the future. So there’s every reason to believe that Trump will lose later this year and we’ll punt our problems down the road another four years.

And, yet.

I like to make my abstract fears concrete, so, I worry. I worry a lot. Specifically, I worry about what is going to happen if Trump wins and then goes “fully tyrant” in 2025. Will there be any reaction at all if Trump is literally snatching his opponents off the street in broad daylight?

That, specifically, is the thing I just can’t game out. It could be that nothing happens and it could be that Trump will be so ham-handed in his autocracy that he single-handedly causes those rarest of American political creatures, the “Radical Moderate” to pop out.

Radical Moderates only appear in times of great crisis — like the Civil War, The Great Depression or WW2. And usually they don’t last long. The calm down and go back to being just regular old centrists.

I just don’t know. I have no idea what to tell you about events going forward.

Evidence That MAGA May Evolve Into A Neo-Luddite Movement

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It definitely seems as though we’re just one severe recession away from a massive disruption in not just the knowledge economy because of AI, but the broader economy as well. Throw in advancements in robotics and, lulz.

As such, it also seems possible that we may see MAGA evolve into something akin to an anti-technology neo-Luddite movement that demands strict regulation of AI and maybe human carveouts as well.

But our political system is so broken that, lulz, who knows what will happen. It could be that we won’t even be able to cobble together the political will to establish a UBI, even when only legacy plutocrats have enough money to eat.

I Can’t Predict The Future, No One Can

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about late 2024, early 2025, is *the conditions* are there for a massive clusterfuck. But, it could be, that we just muddle through like we usually do. That’s the outcome I want.

I worry about an Election of 1872-type situation in 2024.

If we managed to punt our problems down the road another four years, that would be great.

I’m worried. I’m really worried.

I’m worried for a number of reasons. One is President Biden’s age. Another is the instability caused by the bonkers “Free Palestine” people. Another is Trump’s age. The list goes on.

I keep thinking about what happened during the election of 1872 and what we would do if something similar happened today. It’s a formula for a “Not great, Bob” situation.

But who knows. It could be that I’ve really worried a great deal for no reason. Yet if Trump wins in 2024, all bets are off. Just the idea of Trump attempting to deport 20 million people sends shivers down my spine and keeps me awake at night.

And, yet, here we are, with Trump preparing to do that very thing the moment he can. I don’t know what to tell you.

I Still Think MAGA May Evolve Into An Neo-Luddite Movement

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One thing that ding-dong Trump has been strangely quiet about is the rise of AI. It definitely seems as though if MAGA freaks out about all their high paying blue collar jobs going poof because of AI and androids that the movement may drift into something akin to an anti-technology neo-luddite movement.

AI has problems, sometimes.

There are signs that AI is about to take over the world in the sense that we’re one severe — and maybe not so severe — recession away from millions of jobs being disrupted an eliminated because of some combination of AI and robot technology.

It’s all potentially very dystopian and could happen really, really fast. In fact, the only thing that might slow things down is just regular old inertia. It just takes time for major changes to happen, no matter how quickly they COULD happen.

But I do think we’re one severe recession away from millions of jobs being replaced with some combination of AI and robotics. That is the fundimental nature of capitalism — to screw people over.

Going Forward Into A Possible Civil War / Revolution There’s One Thing That I’m Nervous About: The DPRK

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I make a lot of dark, dystopian predictions on this blog about the future. I can’t predict the future, so I don’t *know* what will happen. But I am…uneasy about our future. All the *conditions* are there for some sort of collapse of the United States for various reasons.

As such, my big concern if THAT happens is the DPRK will take advantage of the situation and start lobbing H-bombs in our direction. It will be a lot more difficult for Blues to win over Reds if, say, LA and NYC have been vaporized.

So, lulz? I don’t know what to tell you. I can’t predict the future. No one can. But I am very, very concerned that the future could be a far, far darker than we’re willing to accept at the moment.

It could be that about 1 billion people will die directly because of ding-dong Trump. Buckle up.

It’s Clear That The United States Is Lurching Towards A White Christian Ethnostate The Moment Any Republican Becomes POTUS

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We’re doomed. We’re fucking doomed. The Republican Party is now a fascist one with one agenda and one agenda only — to establish the United States as an autocratic, MAGA-themed white Christian ethnostate.

The key thing to remember is that we can only punt this particular problem down the road so much. Even if we “vote harder” and beat Trump at the polls, the Republican Party is so fascist and radicalized that it’s inevitable that the pressure to transform the US into an autocratic white Christian ethnostate will remain.

So, if it’s not 2025 that we turn into an Christian autocracy, it will be 2029.

As such, there is a part of me — not a very big part — that feels like throwing down the gauntlet NOW so at least if we are going to have a big political / military fight over the choice of autocracy or freedom at least ding-dong Trump will be in charge of the fucking fascists, not someone with any sense about them.

But I only think that when I get really fucking frustrated with the chipper do-gooders who think that if we only “vote harder” that that will fix everything. But it won’t. There’s a good chance that even if the “vote harder” strategy works that Trump will demand a National Divorce to avoid prison time.

Or, put another way — the issue is, that barring some sort of Black Swan event pretty soon, late 2024, early 2025 could see some of the most dramatic events in American — if not human — history. I can’t predict the future. Who knows.

What The Fuck Is Going On With Alexander Smirnov?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The entire point of the impeachment “investigation” into President Biden has simply make sure that when low information voters go to the polls in November they will THINK that Trump and Biden are equal on that front, even though they obviously won’t be.

And I think, in the end, if Biden is impeached, it’s probably going to be for some random minor scandal that pops up out of the blue that would otherwise be a lulz but for how the country is teetering on revolution / civil war.

But something very curious is going on at the moment with the “star witness” of the ding-dong House Republicans. Alexander Smirnov is clearly a Russian FSU operative and there is an air of mystery swirling around him that is unnerving.


What’s going on?

Is it possible that a real bombshell is about to drop, which is that House Republicans KNEW what they were doing and they were actually willfully aiding the disinformation objectives of a foreign power?

I have serious doubts that this is the case. But there is a weird vibe about the whole situation with a MAGA judge letting the guy go, then Smirnov being re-arrested today, presumably because he’s a flight risk.

The key thing to remember is – we are completley and totally fucked because about 38% of the electorate hates democracy because they hate women, minorities and the modern world so much that they would rather be a white Christian ethnostate than have to figure out someone’s pronouns.

And, in the end, I fear that we’re either going to turn “all Red” with a MAGA-themed autocracy, or we’re going to have a Blue revolution then a civil war. Fun times!

But I can’t predict the future. Who knows what is going to happen.

Everything Is So Dumb (AI Generated Art Edition)

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I’ve said before, I get that people are upset that AI generated art won’t give them historically accurate depictions — but for one thing: fucking Nazis.


Do we really want a future where members of the Patriot Front can pump out millions of images to use as Nazi propaganda? Are Tech Bros really so willfully oblivious that they don’t see the harm in something like that happening? Some of them have gotten really, really worked up about there being ANY guardrails for AI.

It really kind of blows my mind.

Anyway, fuck that, fuck them and fuck Nazis.