World War Four

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It’s rare when something so abruptly comes out of the blue that makes me stop thinking about how America is careening towards the existential choice of autocracy, civil war or military junta in late 2024 – early 2025 and makes me think about events past that crisis.

But now, when the OpenAI chatbot, I find myself thinking about what happens next after we sort out our political Trump Problem one way or another.

If you work on the assumption that essentially OpenAI’s chatbot is a ping from an impending Singularity, then it’s very possible that in the late 2020s, the issue of the day will be technology. It could be that the current concept of the Blue -Red paradigm will be up ended and our current understanding of what everything is “Left” or “Right” of will be radically changed.

Imagine a near future where a Non-Human Actor has totally transformed our society and economy so radically and abruptly that a neo-Luddite movement is born. You could see elements of the current Far Right and Far Left fuse together in opposition to the excessive use of technology like AGI to replace humans. And this would be a global realignment.

In fact, given that an AGI would be “The Other” you could plot out a scenario where the even the nation-state becomes a quaint concept as Humanity divides itself into pro-AGI and anti-AGI camps. Your nationality won’t be as important as where you stand on the issue of allowing AGIs or NHAs pretty much replace Humans in every conceivable task.

And that would be a potential World War Four (World War Three having happened around in the mid-2020s as America either becomes an autocracy or has a civil war.) WW4 would be the essential battle over the nature and relationship of AGI. I say this because it’s possible that large segments of humanity might have a near-mystical relationship to an AGI. You see seeds of this happening already with OpenAI’s chatbot, with people using answers from the service to validate what they already believe.

This is all very, very speculative. But it does make you wonder where the American Left and Right would fall politically when it comes to their relationship to an AGI “Other.” At the moment, I think Leftists might be the ones to embrace an AGI as a near-godlike thing, while the Right would freak out because they would, I don’t know, think it was the anti-Christ or something.

Anyway. We really need to start a serious debate about these issues now. If the Singularity really is headed our way, everything may change overnight.

The Crux Of The Hunter Biden Imbroglio

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

People who get really upset about what may or may not have transpired around Hunter Biden’s laptop are telling a tale on themselves. If you’re all that invested in the story and think some great injustice occurred because voters didn’t get a clear shot of Hunter Biden’s dong on Twitter during the 2020 election — you’re a fucking MAGA Nazi.

I suppose you might make the case that some of these fucking MAGA Nazis are upset because of the general “injustice” they felt was perpetrated against Republicans, but that is just a thin veneer to cover what fucking MAGA Nazis they are. If you wanted Trump to win in 2020, you’re fucking Nazi.

If you had any sense about you, even a conservative would look back and in hindsight say, “Given the context, and the candidate Republicans were fielding at the time, maybe we can be grateful that malignant ding-dong wasn’t helped by all of us seeing Hunter Biden’s cock.”

But no, your typical Republican in good standing is so absolutely partisan, so blinding by how their a fucking MAGA Nazi that they don’t care. They wanted Trump to win and they want autocracy because they hate democracy because their racist, rage-fueled policies aren’t popular to get them elected if we have a functioning democracy.

All of this, of course, is obscured and conflated by how fucked up modern American politics is. But the fact remains — if you wanted Trump to win in 2020, for whatever reason, you’re a fucking MAGA Nazi.

I’m Sure There Were Earnest, Well Meaning Nazis Back In The Day, Just Like There Are Similar MAGA People Today

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The worst MAGA Nazis are the well meaning, earnest ones who simply refuse to take my alarm over their movement seriously. This enrages me because not only should these MAGA Nazis know better, but they seem so heartfelt in their adherence to a racist, mygonsistic fascist enterprise.

I want them to be angry at me because at least then they would be validating the fact that I think MAGA is American Nazism.

I do, I really, really believe this.

And I think we should be acting accordingly. Barring something I can’t predict — I am wrong all the time, afterall — late 2024, early 2025 could be some of the most dramatic months in American history. I say this because of Trump always says the quiet part outloud.

It is possible that somehow he isn’t the Republican nominee and one of the more “palatable” MAGA Nazis like Ron DeSantis becomes our first autocrat and he’s so smooth in his shepherding of American transition into fascism that the only way we’ll notice that things are changing is how many wealthy liberals are fleeing the country.

The key thing for me is we have to stop validating MAGA. We have to equate MAGA with American Nazism and act accordingly. However you would treat an American Nazi, that’s how you should treat a MAGA person. It’s very difficult to do at the point because, well, for the most part MAGA has been all talk. But it definitely seems as though MAGA, given the chance, is going to take America down a very dark path.

The other options, of course, being a civil war (or maybe a military junta.) At the moment, I don’t think we’re going to have a civil war. Blues just don’t have the spunk necessary to pull it off. So, when the time comes, Blue States will bend a knee to autocratic MAGA Nazi fascism and that will be that.

The wildcard being, of course, maligant dingus Trump. He could, personally, unto himself, cause a civil war he’s such an idiot.

But let’s hope that doesn’t happen. Maybe we can punt our existential problems down the road one more presidential election cycle.

The Existential Political Problem of The ‘All-In’ Podcast

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Of all the podcasts I could listen to in an effort to challenge my own political orthodoxy, the Tech Bro podcast “All-In” is probably one of my better potential options.

But.

My chief issue with the podcast is it is working on the assumption that MAGA is a valid political movement in the context of a functioning democracy. From the few times I’ve listened to the podcast so far, they treat MAGA not as the fascist aberration that it is, but rather just a more spicy variety of regular old American conservativism.

As such, there are times when I grow very frustrated with the wealthy, well educated men who should know better. It is growing more and more clear that MAGA is not only growing stronger but it’s becoming closer and closer to nothing short of American Nazism.

What’s interesting is I listen to David Sacks and his talking points are identical to those of my Traditionalist family members. He gets really angry about the “media narrative” that is somehow making his life hell. What bothers me so much about this is I thought in 2016 that I was supposed to “fuck my feelings” according to MAGA and now I’m supposed to have some sympathy for Sacks who wants to burn the country to the ground…because he got his fee-fees hurt?

What the what?

Remember, the soft power of the mainstream media is not nearly as powerful the hard power that Nazis MAGA fascists crave at the moment. People like Sacks love, love, love to conflate the soft power of the “woke cancel culture mob” with the hard power that a MAGA controlled government would have once they’re in power again.

We have, as a nation, come to a tipping point — MAGA is American Nazism and should be treated as such in political debate. As such, extreme partisan Traditionalists — like Sacks and my relative — have to fish or cut bait. Either own being a MAGA Nazi or get woke and join the broad anti-fascist alliance that is trying — without much success at the moment — to save what is left of our free country.

But I know nothing I say is going to change anything. People like Sacks ant the other Tech Bros are going to try to hang on to the non-existent “middle” for as long as possible so they don’t have to make that choice.

In the end, of course, the choice will be made for them,

The Rise Of Techno Neo-Feudalism

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One curious thing that I’ve noticed is how many people are eager to worship someone like Elon Musk. It’s a very “what the what?” moment for me because I find any form of parasocial hero worship very dubious. But, then, all my public heroes are dead — I’m not one to worship anyone or anything.

The OpenAI chatbot is spooky good.

I think a lot of this has to do with an individual’s relationship to male authority. A lot of people — especially aimless young men — want someone they can imbue with their hopes and dreams. This, in turn, leads to fascism. But I also think there is an element of neo-feudalism, or techno neo-feudalism to what’s going on around us.

Because of a growing number of plutocrats who control the world’s economy, people like Elon Musk can step in and change the fate of global history. They have the means, motive and opportunity to take control of something as powerful as Twitter and bend its mission to their will.

Of course, the rise of techno neo-feudalism brings with it an element of innate instability. The could very well come a moment in the not-so-distant future where the global populace rises up against this shift in human existence and God only knows what happens next.

A Fourth Turning, a Great Reset, you name it.

And all of this would be happening not just in the context of America struggling to figure out what to do about Trump, but also the potential rise of hard AI that may upend the lives of everyday people in ways no one — especially not me — can possibly predict.

It could very well be that history is about to wake up in a rather abrupt manner, not seen since the end of WW2. The entire post-WW2 global liberal order could come crashing down in a rather dramatic fashion with little or no notice. If you game out current macro political and tech trends, it’s even possible that not only will the United States be facing the existential choice of autocracy, military junta or civil war in late 2024, early 2025, Humanity as a whole might be waking up to the mainstreaming of hard AI at just about the same time.

A great book that addresses this type of massive clusterfuck is one of my favorite scifi novels, The Unincorporated Man. It’s definitely thought provoking given how turbulent the next few years might be.

What The Fuck Are We Going To Do About Malignant Ding-Dong Trump?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Despite a lot of authoritarian rhetoric on Trump’s part over the years, it’s actually kind of rare that he goes transactional. Sure, he rants incoherently a lot, but he doesn’t often tell people to actually do something. The exception to that rule was, of course January 6th.

Uh oh.

The January 6th Insurrection happened because Trump pounded away at the issue for months. And even then, Trump was very vague about what he wanted. He never came out and said he wanted people to attempt to browbeat Mike Pence with the threat of violence to not do his job, preferring to concoct his plan to do just that in the shadows.

But now Trump — probably because he’s unhappy that Elon Musk and Ye have cornered the being-bonkers-in-public-market — has decided to go transactional, if in a very abstract manner that the average person probably will shrug at. Trump is now demanding in a very direct way for the Constitution to be suspended so he can become president again.

In short, he’s being transactional in the sense that he’s saying specifically what he wants to have happen so he can get what he wants.

The thing is, I suspect some of this is the man never met a culturally sacred concept he didn’t feel the temptation to soil, so him demanding the destruction of America’s beloved Constitution is just par for the course in that regard.

But it is very alarming that Trump would have being a dictator on the brain, given that he’s currently the front runner for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination. So, in that regard, Trump continues to be an existential threat to the stability of the United States in the sense that he could, unto himself, cause a civil war in late 2024, early 2025 by single-handedly driving Blue States out of the Union.

And, yet, things are very much hit or miss with Trump when it comes to his ability to actually get anyone to do any of the crazy things he rants about. But we have to take him seriously as a threat to our democracy.

The Media Football That Is CNN

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Given that Warner Bros. Discovery has some $50 billion in debt, the company is going to face a lot of pressure to not just cut costs but to merge again. And to me at least, the ideal company for WBD to merge with is NBCUniversal.

But by definition, doing this throws the fate of CNN up in the air because of the obvious existence of MSNBC. The only way the two companies could pass anti-trust concerns would be CNN being sold off.

There are a number of different scenarios one could think of as to the fate CNN. One possibility is some MAGA plutocrat buys it and turns it into a Fox News clone. Another is someone like Jeff Bezos buys it and makes it his play thing along with the Washington Post.

Then, there is the possibility that Elon Musk could swoop in and buy CNN. Remember, CNN was built upon the ego of Ted Turner. So, it would be a return to its origins for it to be the plaything of something like Musk.

But the key thing you have to remember is, given how important CNN remains to be, there’s a good chance that it’s current drift towards MAGA is going to accelerate.

Are Bonkers MAGA House Republicans Plotting To Draft Trump To Be Speaker of The House?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

In general, I doubt Trump is interested in being Speaker of the House. He’s just too dumb to have the abstract cognitive abilities to do something so norm breaking and diabolical. All of his political instincts are little more than a grunt. And, remember, Trump is not a Great Man of History. He’s just a very lucky idiot who serves as an avatar, a vessel for white Christian rage.

As such, if anyone is going to be Speaker who isn’t a member of the House, it’s probably going to be Newt Gingrich. He would be an ideal Trump proxy for bonkers MAGA House Republicans and he already has experience impeaching a Democratic president.

I don’t think we really appreciate what at fucking clusterfuck 2023 is shaping up to be on the political and impeachment front — despite the thin majority Republicans have in the House, Republicans there have one thing they all agree on: spite.

I could very well see Republicans impeach both Biden and Harris multiple times specifically to be extremely petty — they would want to take away the Democratic talking point of Trump being the only president impeached twice. At the same time, impeaching Biden (and Harris) a few times would retroactively make Trump’s impeachments no big deal.

“Everyone gets impeached,” MAGA House Republicans would say.

The only way I see there being a Speaker Trump is if the battle over the Spearship lingers long enough for it to catch Trump’s attention. I could see, maybe, Trump seeing an opportunity and swooping in to be Speaker because he’s the one person that the entire Republican caucus — or at least 218 of them — can agree on.

And don’t let yourself be fooled by the myth of the “moderate Republican” who would object to Speaker Trump. Ha! Just like there were probably moderate Nazis, there are “moderate” MAGA Republicans who will inevitable tow the line should they be forced to vote for a Speaker Trump.

I want to be wrong. But, then, I would prefer Biden and Harris not be impeached a few times between January 2023 and November 2024.

If Republicans take the House, which historically, they are favored to do, MAGA will have the power to impeach members of the Biden Administration. Given how fucking spiteful a Republican controlled House will be, it’s not a question of if more than one member of the Biden Administration will be impeached, it’s if there’s anyone who WON’T be impeached.

Here’s a back-of-the-envelope prediction about all the potential impeachments we should expect in 2023 if Republicans do, in fact, take the House.

President Biden
It’s pretty clear to me that a Republican House will be so full of spite and rage and bloodlust for revenge that it’s very possible they may accidently on purpose impeach Biden for no apparent reason in the early days of 2023. It will be so transparent as to what is going on that House Republicans are going to do severe political damage to themselves. But it won’t matter — that political damage would only matter if we were a functioning democracy. But we’re no longer a functioning democracy, we’re in between autocracy and democracy — in other words, an “anocracy.”

There are at least two reasons why Biden will be impeached. One is, of course, his wastrel son Hunter Biden. The other is the “border crisis.” The big issue is will these be two seperate impeachments so Democrats will not longer have Trump being impeached twice as a talking point, or if these two issues will be fused together into one event.

At the moment, I honestly don’t know. There’s always a chance that MAGA Republicans will impeach Biden THREE times, for two reasons. They both scream at the top of their lungs that Biden is the only president to be impeached three times and at the same time they can, expo facto say it’s no big deal that Trump was impeached twice.

Veep Harris
I have no idea why House Republicans will impeach Harris, but they’ll think of something. Just the idea that they could somehow impeach and convict Biden and Harris in quick succession is enough to give them all a boner and they have no self control so they’re going to do it at some point between 2023 and 2025.

DHS Secretary Mayorkas
As I understand it, there’s already a move afoot by House Republicans to hit the ground running impeaching Mayorkas for his handling of the “border crisis.” So, there’s every reason to believe that he’s going to be impeached at some point between 2023 and 2025.

HHS Secretary Becerra 
This is a bit more speculative, but I could see that once the impeachment counter-revolution gets going that House Republicans will set their sights on Becerra for something connected to “gender affirming” care of minors. That seems like just the type of culture war edge issue that MAGA House Republicans would want to wallow in for a few months to prove a point. I could also see a potential impeachment article surrounding the Biden Administration’s handling of COVID — even though it was Trump who fucked that particular situation up. Who cares about facts when you have lies?

Education Secretary Cardona
This is also rather speculative, but once the monster of impeachment is unleashed, House Republicans may go after Cordona on the nebulous charge of encouraging “critical race theory” in schools — even if this is total bullshit. They just want to be able to hold hearings where they rant about CRT for hours on end. It will juice the base while “owning” the libs.

FBI Director Wray
If this happens, it will be a prime example of how wrapped up in their own bullshit MAGA House Republicans will be once they have power. Wray is ON THEIR SIDE and they will still come after him because something something Deep State.

Attorney General Garland
This is obvious — MAGA Republicans are so blinded by their anger over the Mar-a-Lago raid that they want to impeach Garland for approving it, despite it being totally justified given what Trump did.

There could be a few Federal judges that spark MAGA ire that will be impeached as well.

The Rise Of The American Fourth Reich: The Cancer of Antisemitism Is Growing On American Politics

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I can’t predict the future. But there are some alarming trends in American politics at the moment that make me sit up and take notice. Take the rise of mainstream antisemitism within MAGA ranks. There is a very dark scenario that writes itself involving a Republican House refusing to raise the debt celling in 2023 and, as such, crashing the global economy.

That, in turn, puts America in 2023 in a very similar situation to Germany in 1933. Let the United States marinate in an extended deep recession for a few years and by 2024 it’s possible that if not Trump, then someone nastier — and younger — than he is could pop up and away we go.

We end up in something literally akin to an American Fourth Reich.

The issue for me is, there seems to be a lot of slack in the system for an increase in support for antisemitism. Now that people like Ye and Nick Fuentes are being given oxygen for their hate and not a lot is being done about it for the very reason nothing is ever really done about Trump, well, oh boy. Are we fucked. There could very well come a tipping point where things we never imagined possible in the United States — especially when it comes to the state of Jews here — could become a very cold, hard reality.

That sounds very hysterical, I know, but still. The conditions are definitely developing for something very, very dark to happen in the United States between now and spring 2025.

And, remember, I still believe that if there is a National Divorce, it won’t be Red States who do it, but rather Blue States who serve the papers. And it won’t be rolling political violence as predicted by Barbara F. Walter — it would be full blown secession at the state level.

But nothing suggests we’re going to have a civil war at the moment — I just don’t think Blues have it in the to do such a thing. Blues will bend a knee to autocratic Nazis MAGA fascism and that will be that. A shit ton of wealthy American liberals will flee the country and before you know it the existing ICE infrastructure will be weaponized and, lulz, there you go. That will be my fate at some point after 2025.

I guess I need to write a breakout first novel so I can flee the country, huh.

A Moment Of Truth

The alarming mainstreaming of antisemitism within MAGA ranks is something that if it continues is going to force a moment of truth for anti-anti-MAGA Jewish conservatives. At the moment, this particular vocal subset of MAGA complicit people are living in complete denial.

They generally support the fascist agenda of MAGA, but they can’t bring themselves to admit it. So they get really work up about the tactics of the anti-MAGA (Blue) political movement and qubble about the specifics of the dynamic between Blue and Red.

And, really, from what I can tell from what I read on Twitter, these anti-anti-MAGA Jewish conservative intellectuals would be more than happy to go full throated MAGA if things came to that. But, ironically, just as they are moving towards that decision, we have Ye and Nick Fuentes having dinner with ding-dong Trump.

Speaking of Trump, the issue of what will happen to Javanka should antisemitism consumes MAGA in the whole is going to be very, very interesting. In fact, I would even go so far as to say that the status of Javanka is something of the canary in the coalmine. If they get pushed out of the movement then that could be it — that could be the moment when anti-anti-MAGA Jewish people have to fish or cut bait when it comes to MAGA.

Fucking MAGA autocratic fascist.

That is going to be surreal to watch, should it happen.

I think what I’m most concerned about is not so much Trump but his successor. It’s also easy to imagine that if MAGA really does transform into American Nazism that some American Hitler might bubble up to the surface who will do some of nastier things to Jews — and people like me! — that Trump just doesn’t have to mental ability or discipline to pull off.

What makes all of this even more curious is we’ve been told for about 80 years now “Never Again.” And, yet, here we are — the same Goddamn thing that happened with Germany in the 1930s is happening in the United States. Or, at least, we seem to be drifting towards a similar dire situation. Of course, the key difference between MAGA and the Nazis is MAGA is movement of retraction of power while the Nazis were expansionistic.

The point is — I’m very alarmed. And it sure would make me feel a lot better if anti-anti-MAGA conservative Jewish intellectuals would actively join the anti-MAGA movement. It definitely will be interesting to see if that ever happens and how, exactly, it will go down if it does.