My Hot Take On The #Russian – #Ukraine Crisis For January 22, 2022


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m definitely not an expert, but here’s my novice hot take on what’s going on at the moment between Russia and Ukraine. If all of this is just a big flex on the part of Putin in hopes of getting “respect” from the West, then he sure is expending a huge amount of money to do so. Or, put another way, there comes a point when you just can’t have a massive portion of your military forward deployed, then pull back, without looking like a fool. The world community thinks you’re going to do something, so you might feel obliged to live up to their expectations.

It doesn’t make any sense to me that Putin would go through all this trouble just to turn around and say, “psych!” He’s up to something, something big. And the questions now are when and how big? Given what I understand about the issue of mud around Ukraine impleading any Russian advance, it seems as though sometime in February would be ideal.

At the moment, the sweet spot for any invasion is probably after the Winter Olympics, which end on February 20th. And, yet, I dunno. It seems as thought that might not be a consideration for Putin at this point. My current personal guess is any war between Russia and Ukraine might starts around February 15 or so.

I say that because a huge number of Russian forces are flooding into Belarus at the moment for “joint training exercises” that are supposed to take place between now and around the middle of February.

And, yet, there’s a big thing to consider — to date, I’ve been wrong all the time about what’s going on with Russia and Ukraine, so why would this be any different. So, it’s very possible that this really is just a big, foolish flex on Putin’s part and the spring mud will come and…nothing will have happened.

But I am keeping an eye on all of this. At the moment, the momentum is towards a major war between Russia and Ukraine. If that happens, it could collapse the entirety of the post-WW2 global liberal order to the point that we’ll see instability the likes of which we’ve not seen since the inter-war period of 1918 – 1939.

And to this how the United States is careening towards a “Fourth Turning” around 2025 and we could very well have something akin to a “Great Reset” with a Second American Civil War happening in conjunction with WW3.

Did A Leftist Manic Pixie Dream Girl At Vice Break Tim Pool’s Heart?



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I honestly don’t give a shit about weird MAGA New Right “thought leader” Tim Pool. Whatever, live the fuck on and prosper. But I remember when Tim Pool worked at Vice and was just another one of their asshole Leftist that the old Gawker would make fun of for how needlessly over-the-top they were.

But, at some point, all that changed. Pool became an enfant terrible of the MAGA New Right for some reason. It’s not so much that he “switch sides” that interests me — I mean, people change — but for it happen out of the blue makes me wonder if maybe something personal was involved.

Tim Pool

And I know enough about the human psyche to know it’s very easy to imagine a scenario where some cute Leftist girl — a manic pixie dream girl, if you will — broke that poor boy’s heart and he vowed to get back at her by turning into a rabid New Right person. At least, that makes sense to me.

But I will note that Pool’s conversion proves that the MAGA New Right grift has an exceeding low bar of entry. I mean, it’s so fucking low that if I sold my soul to Trumplandia I could probably be having dinner with Trump himself within six months.

The books I’ve been reading about the macro issues involved in America’s transition to anocracy really are very illuminating about all of this bullshit. A lot of white men feel very insecure about the social changes taking place in America right now and there is a huge demand for articulate people to express that rage.

One last thing. It is within the realm of possibility that I’m related — through marriage — to Pool. He’s apparently from the Hampton Roads area and I have a cousin there married to a Pool. I have nothing personal against the guy. It would be interesting to have dinner with him and ask, “What was her name?”

Is Trump Still ‘Too Big To Fail?’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Well, this is interesting. There seems to be a growing chorus within the Far Right that suggest that Trump is a washed up hasbeen. Now, we all know what this really means — Trump has served his political purpose. He has paved the way for a far more palatable and “boring” autocrat to swoop in and finish the job he started.

This has long been a concern of mine. That Trump might be knocked out of the running politically and then we would have to worry about someone like DeSantis or Cotton or Pompeo or Hawley or you name it being the person who would ultimately be America’s “Putin.” And, remember, not even Putin built his autocracy in a day. It was a gradual thing. So, it’s easy to imagine President DeSantis being POTUS for eight years, then mysteriously and magically becoming Speaker of the House and running the country that way until he was able to convince people that we need a Constitutional Convention to “pass a balanced budget amendment.”

That definitely seems to be our lot at this particular moment. Or we have a civil war. But the likelihood of a civil war decreases dramatically if someone, anyone other than Trump is our 2025 autocrat. Trump is such a fucking lazy idiot who always says the quiet part out loud that he, unto himself, could cause a civil war just by being an idiot who is no longer “useful.”

But I would not count Trump out quite yet. Yes, under any normal definition Trump is a washed up political hasbeen that should just shut up and enjoy his political retirement. But Trump always, always, always does the wrong thing and somehow comes up on top. So, it makes total sense that he would simply through sheer force of will become the Republican 2024 nominee and push the United States perilously close to a Second Civil War.

If Trump is the Republican nominee again, I suggest you get a pass port and figure out what you believe in and what you’re willing to suffer for in the real world. Things are going to get lit.

Hollywood, Australia?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m a nobody in the rural part of a fly over state. I don’t know anything about anything. But in my travels around the world over the years, I have noticed that people from Perth, Australia are some of the most unique in the world. They’re very interesting, creative people.

So, whenever my mind wander into what might happen to some of the deeper Blue portions of America like Hollywood, I think of Perth. If the movie industry were to, en mass flee autocratic America, they would do worse than to go to Perth. Now, Perth is in the middle of nowhere. It’s pretty much a long ways away from everywhere.

But the weather is decent and it would be a great place for all the Deep Blue Hollywood types to live once Hollywood is finally consumed by Immersive Media. I have to note, in passing how annoyed I am at how many center-Left people already have one foot out the door when it comes to the United States. I mean, come on, people, you don’t have the gumption to stand and fight for the freedoms that have made you so wealthy?

Ugh. Fuck that and fuck them.

But anyway, the issue is — we all have to prepare for some severe turbulence in the United States between now and no later than January 2025. Everyone is going to have to pick a side based on what they believe. It’s just sad that so many Twitter liberals who could otherwise help the cause of saving freedom and democracy in the United States are cowards and would rather run away than help defend the idea that the America really is the land of the free, home of the brave.

Or put another way — just because Trump was too stupid and lazy to “not lose” the 2020 election, doesn’t mean he won’t be able to “not lose” the 2024 election. We’re totally fucked no matter what. We’re just not going to muddle through this crisis like we have with other major events in our history in the past.

The years 2024 – 2025 will be the biggest political crisis in American domestic history since the secession crisis of 1860 – 1861. Either you’re prepared for it when it happens, or you’re not.

Good luck.

American Diaspora


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

All indications are that if the United States doesn’t buckle and have a civil war and instead becomes an autocracy that many, many center-Left people are going to vote with their feet and leave the country. I mention this to the Traditionalists I know and instead of growing alarmed at how much this would hurt the nation we both love, they get rather defensive. They get wrapped up in the idea that I’m somehow suggesting that Reds aren’t as economically productive as Blues.

I find this very, very bonkers.

But it’s a sign of how bad things are right now in the United States. Red and Blue hate each other so much that they no longer have any shared sense of national identity. Everything, EVERYTHING, is seen through the prism of partisan politics, right down to the effects of an American Diaspora.

And, yet, here we are. I think it’s clear that many, many wealthy and economically productive center-Left people in the United States already have one foot out of the door. I keep seeing on Twitter center-Left people talking about how they’re getting non-American passports as backup for the possibility that they may simply decamp.

It’s things like this that make me think the center-Left, when the time comes in 2024 – 2025, is simply going to give up and let us slip peacefully into autocracy. There will be a lot of angry Twitter rants by Twitter liberals, but they will be written in Paris, not New York City.

Another scenario is both things happen. We have a civil war and a lot of center-Left people leave the country because of the instability. I struggle to figure out where all these center-Left Twitter liberals will ultimately settle, however. As I’ve written before, I think it’s at least possible that somewhere like the Philippines might benefit a great deal from America sliding into autocracy. The weather is hot, it has a historical connection to the United States and it’s big enough to handle many, many Americans settling there.

I also think somewhere like Perth might enjoy a cultural rebirth. Everyone I’ve ever met from Perth was really interesting and creative and it seems like that would be a perfect place for Hollywood to settle in the event of some sort of massive clusterfuck in the United States, in 2024 – 2025.

But one thing is clear — the United States can no longer simply sleepwalk through history. History has one eye open now and will be wide awake by the time the Republicans flip the House and Senate later this year. Everything is going to change once Republicans have power again. They’re going to impeach both Biden and Harris and generally things are going to suck.

The years 2023 – 2024 are likely to be just one long impeachment trial of the entire Biden / Harris Administration. Add to this how Republicans are already screaming at the top of their lungs how they plan to brazenly steal the 2024 election and…oh boy.

Anyway. As I keep saying — get ready. Things are going to get pretty bumpy in the United States very, very soon.

Review: ‘How Civil Wars Start’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I really enjoyed Barbara F. Walter’s “How Civil Wars Start…And How To Stop Them.” I recommend it. It’s extremely well written and thought out. But, sad to say, it’s severely flawed as well. Not that you shouldn’t buy it, you should, but you should go into it knowing that it’s fighting battles that either don’t exist or are impossible to solve.

The first problem is her exclusive focus on the notion that the MAGA New Right will not only be the origin of any second civil war in the United States, but that any such civil war won’t be a “civil war” in the traditional sense, but rather something akin closer to The Troubles of Northern Ireland. I take issue with this because, lulz, the MAGA New Right is running around, yelling at the top of its lungs how it plans to seize control of the United States without firing a shot. They are ascendant, they have no reason to start any hot civil war.

But you know who will in 2024 – 2025?

Blue States, starting probably with California. The Bear State Republic attempting to leave the Union would cause a cascading series of events which would leave us with a pitched battle between Blue America and Trumplandia. Either the U.S. Military collapses as Blues leave it to establish the armed forces of Blue America, or we endup with some sort of military junta that tries to put the country back together long enough for, say, a Constitutional Convention to be held.

The other severe flaw with the book is the solutions she proposes. All of them are bullshit. Not one of them will ever be implemented. We’re not South Africa. We don’t have any leadership with the ability to put the needs of the nation first. And, besides, we have a winner-take-all system of government and Senate. The MAGA New Right will never, ever for any reason allow any of the reforms she suggests will help us avoid a civil war.

There are only two possible solutions to the massive clusterfuck we find ourselves in — civil war or autocracy. And if we do have a civil war, we will bomb ourselves into the Stone Age in the context of WW3 taking place. The globe will be wracked with a conflagration far worse than WW2.

We are completely, totally fucked in the extreme. Lincoln’s Second American Republic is fucking doomed one way or another. The thing that Traditionalists believe will happen — that they will get all the goodies of white Christian minority rule without the downside of autocracy — simply isn’t going to happen.

In the end, loudmouth cranks like me are going to have our heads bashed in by ICE at the direction of the autocrat or we’re going to become one of millions of domestic political refugees who find succor in a Blue State or in, I dunno, Canada.

You have until about 2024 to get your affairs in order. I suggest you do so.

The MAGA New Right Is Ascendant, It Has No Need To Start A Second American Civil War


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

While I’m really digging Barbara F Walter’s book, “How Civil War’s Start,” there are two major assessments on her part that I disagree with. One is she focuses on the MAGA New Right and it’s radicalization as the source of a potential civil war. She’s really invested in the idea that it will be the MAGA New Right that starts some sort of rolling political violence in the coming years.

Sorry, lady, but I have to call bullshit on that.

The MAGA New Right is ascendant in the United States. They have no reason to start a civil war. Yes, they’re full of rage and feel politically disenfranchised, but they’re going to win both the 2022 midterms and the 2024 presidential election (even if they have to brazenly steal it), so it makes no sense for it to the MAGA New Right that starts a civil war.

But it WOULD make a lot of sense for, say, California to get fed up with the MAGA New Right bullshit in 2024 – 2025 and attempt to leave Union. And it’s within the realm of possibility that this could cause the U.S. Military to buckle as well as other Blue States follow California out the door.

So, it’s the center-Left we have to worry about when thinking about a Second American Civil War, not the MAGA New Right. But I don’t know things will get that far. The American center-Left is so weak, so fractious that it’s possible that we’ll slip peacefully into a MAGA New Right autocracy at some point in 2025 and that will be that.

Instead of a civil war, hundreds of thousands of center-Left Americans will vote with their feet and flee for Canada and beyond. This, at the moment, seems far more likely than any type of civil war. I tell my Traditionalists relatives about this scenario and they just get mad that I suggest that the MAGA New Right isn’t as economically productive as the center-Left, totally ignoring how this process might hurt the nation in general.

Ugh. Makes me so angry.

The MAGA New Right As ‘Superfaction’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I don’t feel like walking across the house to look up the exact definition in Barbara F. Walter’s book about how civil wars start, but it is clear to me that the United States meets yet another metric of a country heading towards a civil war: a superfaction exists.

And it’s the MAGA New Right.

What makes the MAGA New Right as superfaction so dangerous it’s also a fascist party. But remember, the MAGA New Right superfaction is ascendant. The path is clear for it to take power first later this year as part of the 2022 midterms and then even more so in 2024. It has such momentum that it could win both elections fair and square.

But the MAGA New Right hates democracy so much that they could very well lie and cheat to win, which would, unto itself, cause a revolt on the part of the center-Left at the state level. And that would start a massive civil war.

And, yet, everything remains up in the air. It really could go either way. We could have a civil war or we could simply transition peacefully into an autocracy. But what won’t happen is we continue to muddle along like we have been. The moment of decision is fast upon us.

The decision will be existential and devastating, no matter which option we pick. Everyone will have to make a decision on a personal level and pick a side. There will be no one to tell you if you’ve picked the right side and no narrative or value around to help you.

All you’re going to have is what you believe in and what you’re willing to suffer for in the real world.

The Rise Of American ‘Racial Entrepreneurs’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m being extremely lazy with this post, but in reading Barbara F. Walter’s book about how civil wars start, I’m taken aback by how relevant the political science concept of the “racial entrepreneur” is relative to what’s going on in the United States right now.

These are people who latch on the simmering racial tension and stoke those tensions for their personal profit and glory.

While FOX News is full of such racial entrepreneurs, one sticks out as being the worst — Tucker Carlson. Trump, obviously, is one too, but he’s so stupid and lazy that he is, and always has been, nothing than an avatar, a vessel for white rage.

Meanwhile, Carlson is smart enough that he can articulate what a lot of white Christian Traditionalists are feeling about race in a far more cogent manner than Trump. Carlson is very, very popular with my Traditionalists relatives and I could easily, easily, EASILY see Carlson winning the GQP nomination should he throw his hat into the political ring.

But the popularity of Tucker Carlson definitely indicates that, as Ms. Walter suggests, we’re not only an anocracy, but we’re careening towards a civil war of some sort. I still think that we’re going to transition peacefully into autocracy for no other reason than the center-Left is so weak-willed and fractious that they’re not going to put up much of a fight when the time comes.

Not that I want a civil war. A Second American Civil War would be horrific and a tragedy of astonishing proportions. But at the moment, we’re 50 / 50 when it comes to becoming a Russia-style autocracy or having a civil war. I just can’t predict which direction we’re going to go. Which option we’re going to pick.

But the presence of racial entrepreneurs like Carlson and Trump definitely make one sit up and take notice. Their continued popularity indicates that the one thing that Traditionalists believe will happen — that they will get a President DeSantis and all the goodies of autocracy without the inevitable personal implications, just ain’t gunna happen.

You can’t have an autocracy without you, or someone you love inevitably crossing the autocrat. Once the government no longer gives a shit what the populace believes, well, we’re all fucked, regardless of our political views.

Blue State Revolt Of 2024 – 2025



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Reading Barbara F. Walter’s book about how civil wars start, it definitely seems as though she’s convinced that if the United States has a civil war it will be the center-Right that starts it.

She hasn’t come out and said it so far, but from everything about the wink-wink nature of the book indicates that she’s pointing a finger at white Christian Traditionalists.

I have to politely disagree with this assessment.

She’s being short-sighted. I say this because I believe any civil war that may happen in the United States will happen for tactical reasons in the 2024 – 2025 timeframe. It will be the center-Left that is pushed to the breaking point around then, not the center-Right. The center-Right is ascendant and well on its way to sucker punching the center-Left to the point that any civil war that happens in the United States will focused around not race, or economics but the more abstract notion of, “Is the United States a democracy or a Constitutional Republic?”

I say this because that’s the sticking point that ends political debate between myself and my Traditionalists relatives. So, when the time comes in 2024 – 2025, the lines will be drawn between people who think Republicans have stymied the will of the people and those who think “the system worked” and, fuck you lib.

Not that I don’t think that the MAGA New Right might not start a civil war. But if they did, it would be at some point between now and 2024. The most obvious reason such a civil war would start would be some unexpected pressure on our already fragile political system — probably Trump shuffling off this mortal coil for some reason. The MAGA New Right so so primed to assume that the Deep State has it out for Trump that his untimely demise would be, unto itself, enough for them to take up arms and start a civil war like Ms. Walter believes may happen.

Otherwise, however, it is that existential issue of ‘What is the United States?” that will ultimately be the demise of the Second American Republic. The GQP already rants about how they want a “National Divorce,” not thinking about how messy it would be and inevitable lead to violence that would include WMD.

So, should Republicans brazenly steal the 2024 either through Steve Bannon’s “administrative coup” or by playing the Constitution itself like xylophone, the two sides will both believe they have a legitimate claim to the presidency, which will cause Blue States to begin to leave the Union.

If the brazen theft of the 2024 election doesn’t cause Blue States to leave the Union, then we transition peacefully from an anocracy to an autocracy. Though, I believe there is a really good chance that in the biggest irony of all, Republicans could win the 2024 election fair and square, only to blow it all because they cheat.

So, we would be in a position where a civil war starts because the Republicans cheat, even though in hindsight it’s obvious they would have won anyway.