by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls
Trump’s still not taking the impeachment drive against him seriously. I know this because we’re rushing through the Stormy Daniels playbook at lightning speed and he doesn’t seem all that concerned.
It’s when we come to the end of this playbook and he still faces impeachment that things are going to go haywire. One, Trump while criminally incompetent at his job, is in trouble in the first place in large part because he’s figured out how to use the levers of power to do his bidding. So, the moment he actually feels there’s an existential threat, he’s likely to do concrete, serious things in an attempt to end the march towards actually impeaching him.
Starting a war seems like the most obvious thing he would do. A war with Iran seems rather teed up for him, but for one thing — it’s my impression Iran is Russian client state. So, that would make things a little bit more complicate. Trump wants a major regional war for two reasons. One, it makes him a war president, which gives him more power. Two, he wants to wag the dog and the ability to use Lee Greenwood at any of his upcoming Nuremberg Rallies. Third, it gives the base a talking point — you can’t impeach the president, we’re at war! They get the own the moment at the Thanksgiving dinner table.
While Iran is still an option, there is a far more serious, far darker possibility –the DPRK. Trump barely believes anyone but Ivanka and himself really exist, so Trump could very well use an excuse of some sort to dramatically ratchet up tensions with the DPRK. Trump’s both stupid enough and completely devoid of empathy enough to actually start a jaw-dropping war with the DPRK in an effort to — in his mind — make it politically impossible for impeachment to proceed.
Now, the reason why this is even an issue is Trump and, by extension the Republican Party, is completely devoid of shame. They don’t believe in liberal democracy and they crave power for power’s sake like a vampire craves fresh blood. Add to this that Republicans are prepared to take the Trump Train to whatever destination it may go, and, well, you have a receipt for disaster.
In my view, at least, that means if Trump’s sole goal is to stay in power, he is going to “win.” In the highly unlikely event that his polls numbers crater into the teens, he isn’t going anywhere. His strategy remains the same — getting the base to turn out in Nov. 2020 and to use that as the Sword of Damocles over the heads of elected Republican politicians.
As such, from Trump’s point of view, as long as he can still appointed young hack judges and set policy, it honestly doesn’t matter how low his poll ratings are. That’s it, he wins. And, if need be, he can always depend on Russians hacking the election or simply bribing individual Electors to throw the election for him. That doesn’t even begin to address his pardon power.
So, really, the Republican Party and its cult will win the day because they have no shame and their goal is power for power’s sake. There honestly isn’t anything we can do. I’m glad we seem to be on the path to impeachment, but even if Trump’s crimes are extremely clear cut, Senate Republicans will never convict him. Sometime around Feb., Trump’s acquitted and even though his poll numbers are now about 20%, he will go about his merry way as if nothing happened.
When you have no shame and only care about power, that’s how things are going to shake out.
Having said all that, there’s kind of a dramatic and frightening ray of hope to all of this — Trump himself. Anyone who would call up the Ukrainian president the day after Bob Mueller’s “poor optics” testimony gave him a political pardon, is a pretty adept self-own artist.
So, while in theory Trump is likely to not only escape conviction but get a second term criminally, in practice he’s also likely to finally lose his mind. The pressure of impeachment is likely going to make him finally snap.
And, as such, in the end, it won’t be politics it will be Trump’s own mind that might end The Thousand Year Trump. While his Republican enablers will simply say Trump’s “joking” at first, even braindead Republicans might blanch at having to explain Trump tweeting out a dick pic. They’ll do it, of course, and it won’t really matter because they have no shame. But there’s a least a chance that after a few months of Trump acting in a fashion that is demonstrably and egregiously indefensible (far more so than anything he’s already done) the ground may shift under Trump and The Pence Pivot will take place.
Don’t hold your breath, though. Sometimes you have to articulate things just to make yourself feel better.
