by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
At a minimum, within one (1) year, I believe about 1 million elderly people in the United States will have died preventable deaths. Or, put another way, at a minimum, whenever the COVID19 vaccine is approved and is being used that’s how many elderly people would otherwise be alive if, say, Trump was an actual traditional president.
Here’s where I get that figure.
If 1.4 million high-risk elderly people are in 15,600 homes across the country, then that’s probably (maybe) 600,000 people who may die rather abruptly and in a very alarming manner over the course of a few (early) months. That 1.4 million people are sitting ducks to die from COVID19 as things stand. As COVID19 bounces around the general population, a lot of people with COVID19 will visit their elderly relatives while unknowningly sick with COVID19.
But that’s just the beginning. There are 47 million Americans 65+. Roll that around in your head for a moment and it’s not too far fetched to assume at least an additional 400,000 elderly people will die who might not otherwise have died with an abundance of precaution.
Now, if you really wanted to get dark, you would say that rest homes are really just a means to an end. Each one of those 15,600 nursing homes will be strategic superspreaders. Before we even realize what’s going on, not only will a horrific number of at-risk elderly people die, but the general contagion will be signficiantly amplfied across the country from people who have gone in and out of one of those facilities before we even know what’s going on.
But, before a Twitter Liberal tweets this to prove how I’m a “dangerous charlatan” spreading bad information as a part of “fear porn” — please don’t listen to anything I have to say. I just like running scenarios and writing. Hence, this post.
I’m probably wrong. I’m always wrong. But the above is my general sense, as of right now, as to how potentially bad things might get. It could be less severe, it could be worst. Who knows. I can’t predict the future.
