I asked Gemini Advanced to generate it’s “Halloween costume” and this is what I got:
I thought the image above is telling as what it considers a “Halloween costume.” I pressed it to give me an image of more human-like costume and I got this:
I think that’s a really good image of what a AI might think it would look like in a Halloween costume if it was, say, a Replicant. The last picture it generated, that of a Halloween party, is also interesting.
I’ve talked about this at great length before SCOTUS ruled that Trump was in the clear when it came to the insurrection clause of the 14th Amendment. But this recent tweet about how some democrats believe Trump is not eligible under the 14th Amendment got me thinking.
My theory of the case is something like this — soon after Trump is sworn in (if he wins) he goes full tyrant to the point that the U.S. Military begins to scramble for a legalistic cover to depose Trump.
They find one in the 14th Amendment.
Now, of course, doing such a thing would probably lead to a civil war. But, I suppose, there would be a chance that the U.S. Military might be able to hold the country together long enough for a Constitutional Convention to be held, one that would push through a series of much-needed reforms.
As I keep saying, I consider myself a survivor. Being so involves trying to get ahead of the curve when disaster is possible. As such, I’m finding myself looking every which way about what might happen between Election Day and when the next president is sworn in — and beyond.
One scenario that isn’t getting enough thought is what if’s Blues, not Reds who are forced into a corner when it comes to a “stop the steal” effort. And this time, it won’t be a conspiracy theory — Reds really will be trying to steal the election, probably in a very brazen manner.
In fact, I’ve written a length in the past about such a scenario. (See below). But now that we’re closer to the actual event, it seems if it happens, it will go along the lines of this — Republicans will object to swing state Electoral votes being certified and that will either lead to a tie or Trump winning outright.
If that happens, the Blues may — (will?) go nuts and the country might buckle at the knees. At that point, the only thing that may hold the country together at all will be the U.S. Military.
Here’s the scenario I wrote up some time ago. It’s not perfectly what I image might happen if Blues feel like they have to rebel against MAGA — I don’t think they will want to leave the Union so much as the much more muddy and murky situation of “Who is the president?”
It’s pretty obvious that America is tearing itself apart. The successful election of Joe Biden in 2020 simply punted down the road a crisis that is brewing in the American political system. For historical context a lot of the shit that happened in 2020 with Republicans happened to a far lesser extent with Democrats in 2016 and so it’s logical to assume a similar problem will — only worse — will happen one way or another in 2024.
Here are some reasons why we will have a civil war.
Republicans have come to glorify political violence Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
Republicans no longer believe in democracy It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely destabilizing things that help push the country to the brink.
Trump 2024 Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
Steve K Bannon. Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that weuse to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
Extreme negative polarization We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
A lack of shared values As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.
And, honestly, the only thing standing in the way of an autocrat becoming president in 2025 and seizing “total control” pretty quick is any potential cleaving between MAGA and the Republican Party that takes place between now and then.
Given what I’m seeing right now, it definitely doesn’t seem as though that’s going to be a problem. At this point, it seems as though Republicans will first win power in Congress in 2022, then win the presidency (one way or anther) in 2024 and that will be that.
The autocracy we feared during the Trump Era will come, just four years later than we all expected. But…
There’s a real chance that our transition from liberal democracy to autocracy won’t be as smooth as I think — there could be a civil war. One side — or the other — won’t accept the results of the election and the country will finally buckle. All the nightmare scenarios that I came up with in 2020-2021, will just happen in 2024-2025.
If what happened in 2020 is any indication, the first sign that we would have that something was amiss would be on the local level. Instead of people who simply do their job as Americans and do the rather perfunctory duty of certifying the win of A Democrat, this doesn’t happen. In crucial voting districts all across swing states, Bannon’s “spiritual shock troops” either refuse to certify the win of A Democrat, or they go so far as to YOLO things and switch the win to Trump.
As this happens, the tension in United States escalates day by day. The very rallying cry of MAGA in 2020 — “Stop The Steal” will be adopted by the center-Left when it becomes clear that the MAGA New Right is hell bent on brazenly stealing the 2024 election in broad daylight.
But remember, the center-Left has a very different personality than the MAGA New Right. The center-Left, for all it’s problems with “cancel culture” and being “woke” is still actually connected to reality. So, there would be a struggle between the natural inclination of centrist Liberals to let the “process work” and Leftists who would want to burn everything to the ground given how corrupted everything had become.
All of this turmoil on the local level would find elections in crucial states thrown into the political realm where MAGA state legislatures and Secretary’s of State would begin to actively ensure that A Democrat is prevented from winning. Every day between Election Day 2024 and Certification Day 2025 things would grow more and more unstable in the United States as it became clear that Bannon’s long-planned “administrative coup” was actually going to work.
There would be mass confusion. Lots of lawsuits
And, remember, if Trump is involved, as all of this is going on, he would do everything in his personal power to rile up both sides. If his ongoing, progressive cognitive decline has gotten bad enough, he might even go transactional.
It would be around this point that I could see Blue governors begin to make serious plans to leave the Union. A lot would depend on what California was willing to do. But it would definitely make sense that California would be the first state to call a Secessionist Convention in preparation of leaving the Union if the 2024 election is, in fact, stolen.
But by some point between Thanksgiving and Christmas, you could see some sort of summit of Blue Governors where they debate their plans to leave the Union if the very thing that the MAGA New Right wants — to turn the United States into an autocracy — actually happens.
And as we approached Certification Day in January 2025, the last step in the crisis would happen. If you thought Certification Day 2021 was bad, just wait until Republicans are actively going over and above what they did then when it rolls around in 2025. So, the system will have been corrupted at both the local and state level. And then if that doesn’t work, Republicans will again try to throw the election into the House and Senate to buy time, if nothing else.
So, let me be clear — anyone who thinks we’re going to have some sort of MAGA New Right revolution a la The Turner Diaries — is a fool. Any Second American Civil War we have is probably going to be started by Blue States leaving the Union out of disgust that the fix is in.
Therefore, by the time Certification Day 2025 rolls around, it could very well be a foregone conclusion that we’re going to have a pretty organized civil war. Republicans have no shame and don’t apparently care about the consequences of their actions, so, lulz, we could find ourselves in the absolute worst of worlds because not only are states actively thinking about leaving the Union around this time, but the whole process of figuring out who is POTUS will be languishing in Congress. Republicans, because they are politically blood thirsty and will cheat, will win the power struggle, but there’s a chance states will begin leaving the Union.
It won’t be deranged, individual MAGA New Right blowing stuff up in some sort of rearguard action. It’s going to be a Blue Nation verses a Red Nation. A lot of the same things that happened in the First American Civil War will happen in the second. The U.S. Military will implode as people from Blue States leave it to establish a new Blue State military.
But one thing we have to expect in late 2024 to early 2025 is a mass migration of people across the country as people no longer feel safe living in an area of the country that doesn’t fit their politics. It could be rather frightening.
If it were, God forbid, to happen, I would guess that a Second American Civil War will begin between Certification Day 2025 and Inauguration Day 2025. In other words, as Trump is being sworn in, mass chaos will have erupted across the United States.
Once the hollowed out American military turns it attention to the Blue rebellion at the behest of Trump, it won’t be too long before WMD are sized and used by both sides. Not only would America bomb itself into oblivion with its eyes wide open, but it will be done in the context of WW3 definitely breaking out across the globe because the US will be too busy imploding to ensure the continuation of the post WW2 global order.
How’s that for a New World Order.
Macro trends are not on America’s side. As I keep saying, 2024 is going to be it. It’s the year when either the United States turns into a Russian-style “managed democracy” or there’s a civil war. Now, this isn’t going to be a complete list of the 50 states, but I am going to highlight some of the states that may be more problematic should a Second American Civil War erupt.
Oregon The state is really two states and, as such, is probably going to be a major flashpoint in any Second Civil War. What’s likely to happen is Portland will buck any attempt at a putsch on the part of bonkers Right wing nutjobs in the rest of the state and, as such, either there’s a really blood struggle in the state or there are a massive amount of political refugees from the Portland area as the rest of the state sides with MAGA.
Virginia Again, this is really two states. There’s the NOVA-Richmond-Hampton Roads urban corridor and everything else. It’s very easy to imagine a situation — especially with Virginia’s historic ties to the first Civil War — where the state implodes as we grow closer and closer to a Second Civil War. Too many good old boys in the rural areas of Virginia might get wrapped up in the “Lost Cause” mythos and decide to seize places like Danville (the last capitol of the Confederacy) or Richmond (another Confederate capitol.) If nothing else, simply because of the larger population of the “Blue” parts of the state, there will be significant violence and political refugees as the Blues consolidate power.
Michigan I don’t know as much about this state, but it definitely seems as though once the pre-war process of coups and political consolation begins that there will be at least a coup attempt on the part of the Far Right. Again, don’t underestimate how once you actually start murdering people that the dynamics of things change significantly. It’s very possible that there would be a coup in the state, it would fail, and there would be significant political violence as the state’s Blue population fought back and put the state firmly on the Blue side.
New York Yet again, we have a situation where once politics fails us that the otherwise banal regional differences in a state tears it apart. New York City is far more progressive than the rest of New York State and, depending on how things work out, it’s possible that New York City could become a revolutionary hotbed to the point that is tears itself away from the rest of the state and proclaims itself a Free City. This almost happen during the first Civil War. If nothing else, there will be a serious jiggling of the relationship between NYC and the rest of the state to the point where it aligns itself in any Second Civil War with New Jersey and Connecticut in a way that update New York does not. Or, again, there could be significant political consolidation as Blues from all over the northeast flee to New York and the MAGA-friendly natives of the state flee elsewhere.
Maine I really don’t know that much about this state other than a vague belief that the northern part of the state is far different than the southern part. It’s very easy to imagine significant consolation in the state one way or another as people flee to it as the rest of the country buckles. The state is big — if sparsely populated — and it’s strategic location near the Canadian border might be enough for it to be the home to large refugee camps.
Texas Texas would be in an odd situation as the country fell into civil war because its long-term political trend is shifting Blue, but it’s part of the South and a lot of people consider themselves Southern and MAGA. So either it simply buckles into its own intra-civil war or the MAGA cocksucker fucktards push out all the Blues who flee to Blue States nearby. The end result would be a lot of pissed off former Texans who would be of great benefit to the Blue cause.
California In a sense, the whole fate of the United States rests on what California does. If it simply bolts from the Union, then that significantly hobbles the Blue cause on the ground. California sitting on its hands and become its own nation in the event of a Second Civil War makes it far more likely that either Red states win or there is some sort of half-ass balkanization of the United States. But if California stays and fights, then they could provide not only the necessary economy and population for a Blue state victory — after many, many dead — but also something of a vision for what America would look like after we’re finished bombing ourselves into oblivion.
The Deep South It’s very easy to imagine at the onset of a Second American Civil War most of the old Confederacy on a political level getting extremely excited and having a massive amount of momentum to either leave the Union outright or support the Republican controlled Congress’ attempt to brazenly steal the election. Then reality would sink in — all of the Southern states have significant African American populations and once politics is no longer a viable method of solving problems then the far more brutal dynamics of realpolitik would kick in. I just can’t imagine millions of African Americans lulzing a return to the Confederacy, no matter how badly the white political establishment of those states may want it. So, even though the South has a lot of people and a big economy, it would be, on a regional basis, too busy fighting a race war to really help the Red cause all that much. If things really grew as radical as I fear they will — probably because WMD are stolen and cities start to get vaporized — it’s the Deep South where you’re most likely to see some WW2 level atrocities as radicalized whites begin to murder blacks en mass.
As for the rest of the states, their ability to pick one side or the other is probably far easier and their biggest problem would be dealing with political refugees.
Or, put another way, we’re fucked. We’re totally, completely fucked one way or another. Either we turn into an autocracy or Red and Blue begin to murder each other in cold political blood. The usual outcome of all this bullshit that we have come to expect — simply muddling along until we come to some solution one way or another — is not longer a valid option.
In 2016, there was a certain momentum to the Trump campaign. You could feel it in the air. The country really wanted him to win and so fate stepped in an brought us the Second Comey Letter.
This time, meanwhile, there definitely seems to be some momentum with Harris.
And, yet, I have a growing concern that just because Harris might win, doesn’t mean we’re done with Trump. It seems very possible that her winning would be just the beginning of a long, drawn out process that would begin election night and only end with Harris being sworn in.
My fear is that we will see a quantum leap worse political violence from what we saw in 2020 – 2021. I’m really worried that things might get out of hand and God-only-knows what might happen.
I don’t quite know when it’s going to happen, but very soon, I’m going to throw myself back into working on the novel. And it might not just be the passion project. It might be the other novel(s) I have rolling around in my mind.
I don’t know when it will happen, but it will be soon.
I’m beginning to grow restless and I need to be productive. It’s only because of a very specific set of circumstances that I have this particular situation in my life and when things change — as they inevitably will — I would prefer not to look back with regret.
I may start work on the novel tomorrow.
Now, of course, there is the looming election I have to deal with. I hope — hope — that no matter who wins that I won’t have to deal with some disruption in my life that forces me to end my work on the novel. I don’t think that is going to happen, but I am worried that something will.
I could be a domestic political refugee before it’s over with, the way things are going. But let’s hope not.
The thing that really worries me is about a second Trump administration is how people will react when his tyrannical inclinations are no longer abstract. What happens when he actually starts to be a dictator?
Now, if Trump wasn’t so fucking stupid and lazy, I would say that he could easily transition the United States directly into a MAGA autocracy without any problems. But, Trump is really stupid and lazy and he’s probably going to be very ham-handed in any transition of the USA from failing democracy to full-fledged autocracy.
Here’s what I think will happen in a Trump second term — he’s probably going to rule by executive order. If the House is Democratic, he is probably going to be repeatedly impeached for various things and the Senate will lulz it to the point that we’re all rolling our eyes about how many times they have tried to get rid of Trump.
Meanwhile, about 1 million wealthy, smug liberals are going to flee the country soon after Trump is elected. This brain drain is going to get so bad that Trump is going to lock the country down. I think there’s going to be a shocking change in TV content — specifically late night TV.
Late night TV is going to be neutered in one fell swoop. That is going to be a change that the average person that maybe isn’t all that interested in politics will notice.
Now, all of this will happen in the context of potential uprisings in Blue States over Trump literally being a tyrant. This is where things get fuzzy and murky. I just can’t game out what will happen relative to the U.S. Military.
Will they follow Trump’s orders, or will they balk and sit on their hands? It seems pretty clear that Trump is going to force the issue of civilian – military relations to the breaking point.
That is when things will get really interesting because I simply can’t tell you what might happen. It could be that using the military on domestic opponents will be a bridge too far and they simply ignore whatever Trump has to say.
If that happens, then it could be that either the military collapses or Trump leans into paramilitary groups to do his bidding.
I just don’t know. I just hope the motherfucker doesn’t become president. That’s all I got at this point.
I saw yet ANOTHER person who was clearly interested in my passion project novel poking around this blog. They went from looking at the link about Lisbeth Salander to that about Corrie Yee. Now, I’m by nature extremely paranoid, so my first reaction is — “Oh, shit, someone is going to cherry pick my idea for some sort of screenplay.”
My heroine — who looks somewhat like Corrie Yee in my imagination — has a sleeve tattoo like Megan Fox does in this picture. (Totally different design, though)
And, yet, you can’t live your life in fear and paranoia. So lulz, I’m going to keep working on the novel until something pops out that makes it clear that my idea has, in fact, been “stolen.”
My hunch is, if it is “stolen,” it would be that two elements of my dream, my vision which are publicly known — that the heroine Union Pang would have a sleeve tattoo and look a lot like an older version of Corrie Yee — is what would be used in any screenplay.
Corrie Yee
The issue is — I’ve been working on this fucking thing so long that it’s inevitable that some element of it would be used independently by someone else. This just would be an instance of someone using cherry picking some elements I put out pubically.
I live in oblivion — how was I supposed to know anyone would give enough of a shit to do such a thing?
There are any number of reasons why someone would be interested in my novel’s heroine other than stealing the idea, I’m going to just chill out for the time being.
I am just about ready to throw myself back into working on the novel, but for the fact that I’m locked in neutral, not knowing how the 2024 election is going to turn out. What I think I’m going to do is at some point next week, I’m going to lurch back into my normal headspace and THEN I will start to write a lot again.
Even though I’m growing older and older and pretty much all of this daydreaming is moot at this point, I do find myself thinking living in New York City at some point in the future.
“New York City” — an image generated by Gemini Advanced.
I have no idea how this might happen, but it is fun to think about. Now, of course, the key thing is, given my extroverted personality that I probably would be better suited for LA rather than NYC if I was starting from absolute zero.
But, I don’t know, it just seems like if I’m going to have any “success” in a big city it’s going to be NYC because it’s closer, if nothing else. I do continue to believe that if I could find a couch and access to the the subway for about six months that I would be the best known person in my borough.
I just don’t know. Maybe I’m sensing that something big — in a good way — is about to change in my life? Or not. I think what I may be feeling is I’m just about ready to get back to being creative again and I’m just, in general, in a better mood.
But for just not knowing if America is going to descend into fascism or not, I would throw myself into working on my novel(s) again. But the whole fascism thing is still very much up in the air at the moment.
Of course, there is a risk, the period between Election Day and Inauguration Day will be so much up in the air that I STILL won’t be the proper headspace to get any writing done.
I just don’t know.
But I think — maybe — that I should be able to get some writing done in this week or so lead up to Election Day. It’s possible, not probable. My mind is just so scrambled and ill-focused because of tension in the air because of the election that it is really difficult for me to concentrate enough to write.
I have a feeling that one way or another, I’m going to lurch into writing hard core again pretty soon. I hope.
For some reason, a part of me feels there might be unexpected opportunities for me in the near future. I have no idea what they might be, but…I senses something.
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