I had a nice long conversation with an expat living in South Korea. Here it is. It takes a little while to get started, but it’s worth it.
For those of us who were alive and politically active on that Tuesday, Sept. 11, 2001, we remember what was going on when we opened our eyes that morning before the towers were struck. The Bush Administration was coasting on fumes as was the economy. It seemed as though we were about to enter a recession and Bush would get blamed for it.
Then everything changed.
We woke up eight years later and realized we had been in a waking dream, a nightmare we couldn’t escape.
Now, about 20 years later, we find ourselves on the cusp of a horrific war with the DPRK (North Korea.) Estimates are that 500,000 people would die the first month of such a war and who know how many could die if the war became protracted. And that’s working on the assumption that WMD aren’t used at some point. The DPRK has made it clear that they don’t even consider chemical and biological weapons WMD in the first place, so if they felt cornered they probably would use both gratuitously not just on South Korea but on Japan as well.
What makes all of this really scary is the United States has an unhinged president looking for an opportunity to fire Bob Muller, who may finally get to Trump’s tax returns. So, given how batshit insane the political calculus of the Trump Administration is, it wouldn’t take a lot to think they wouldn’t blink an eye at a cost of life and property needed to have the cover to fire Mueller and assure not only keeping Congress Republican, but come within shouting distance of winning re-election in 2020.
But, really, who knows.
It could go either way. But Trump’s behavior is sufficiently unhinged that it’s enough worry about. It’s enough to think seriously about a monumental wag the dog situation that would be a tragedy of unprecedented levels.
I’m really digging The Atlantic right now. Their vision is very similar to my vision for a new startup that serve as the “voice” of The Resistance. As I have noted elsewhere, there use of video, in particular, is really cool.
This video by Peter Beinart got me thinking about my own views on a war with the DPRK, or North Korea.
My view is I am against starting a war against the DPRK unless we’re provoke. Or should a war happen because Donald Trump is such a dumb ass the he pokes the North Koreans into a war, then I will have to support the war because I feel the South Koreans have the right to defend themselves.
In other words, I’m against any war as long as it’s simply a scenario, but the moment it’s real, then will have to support it. This, of course, makes the prospect of the Trump Administration wagging the dog a very real possibility.
If an avowed anti-Trump person like me is willing to support something as drastic as a war against North Korea once it starts, then from a strategic standpoint it makes a huge amount of sense for Trump — and “President Bannon” to do just that should the need arise.
It doesn’t take too much thought to imagine a situation, say, late 2018, where the Trump Administration is down for the count and needs a sudden jolt of support. Launching a “preventive war” against the DPRK might do just the trick to save Trump in such a situation.
The reason why such a preventive war would make so much sense from Trump’s strategic view is there is a legitimate reason to want to liberate the people of North Korea. It’s just that even the most cursory attempt at a cost benefit analysis would warn you off. Too many people would die and everyone — other than the people of North Korea — have a vested interest in things staying exactly the way they are.
But if Trump did decide to say “fuck it” and do a preventive war against the DPRK, there would be some pretty spectacular images of people being liberated from concentration camp type conditions. This works on the condition, of course, that the Chinese would allow the Americans to get anywhere near there boarder. That is an issue is very much up to debate at this point.
What happens next is anyone’s guess. It could be that things will continue the way they are, or they could explode into a full scale war. This is pretty much the way they’ve been for about 60 years now, so all we can hope that nothing will happen anytime soon.