Going Forward Into A Possible Civil War / Revolution There’s One Thing That I’m Nervous About: The DPRK

by Shelt Garner

I make a lot of dark, dystopian predictions on this blog about the future. I can’t predict the future, so I don’t *know* what will happen. But I am…uneasy about our future. All the *conditions* are there for some sort of collapse of the United States for various reasons.

As such, my big concern if THAT happens is the DPRK will take advantage of the situation and start lobbing H-bombs in our direction. It will be a lot more difficult for Blues to win over Reds if, say, LA and NYC have been vaporized.

So, lulz? I don’t know what to tell you. I can’t predict the future. No one can. But I am very, very concerned that the future could be a far, far darker than we’re willing to accept at the moment.

It could be that about 1 billion people will die directly because of ding-dong Trump. Buckle up.

We Have To Accept That If America Collapses As Part of a Revolution / Civil War Starting in Late 2024 That The DPRK Will Lob Nukes At Us

by Shelt Garner

I’m always, always wrong. And I can’t predict the future. But it definitely seems possible that the conditions are there for a revolution (Blues) or a civil war (Reds) starting in late 2024, early 2025. If this happens, it will be because the country is just too unstable to handle another election cycle.

If we do have a civil war or revolution, our enemies are going to take advantage of this particular crisis. The one country with the means, motive and opportunity to really fuck us over is the DPRK. I could totally see them lobbing a few H-bombs our way if we collapse into chaos.

Anyway. I hope I’m wrong. I really do. I don’t want any violence at all to the point that I’m will to accept autocracy in the US if that’s the only way to avoid it on the macro level. If we’re an autocracy then, of course, ICE will come after me and put me in a camp but, lulz, I’ll think of something.

Trump Selling State Secrets Would Be The Dumbest, Darkest Timeline

by Shelt Garner

I’m not prepared to seriously suggest that Trump would be so dumb as to get caught selling state secrets to, say, the DPRK or Russia. But it’s one of those things where we know the conditions at least exist for such a thing to happen. So, you’re left pondering something very dark and very dumb as being a very real possibility.

The Darkest Timeline.

Now, some context.

I don’t think Trump would really process what he was doing as “selling state secrets to the highest bidder.” He probably would see it more along the lines of “doing a buddy a solid” or something like that. While the most obvious person Trump would be selling access to state secrets to would be Russia, the DPRK is also definitely an option.

I say this because Trump loves Kim Jung Un (ick) and the whole DPRK rĂ©gime is so weird that it’s at least possible that they might lean into personal relationship that Trump has with Kim to see if they can nab some state secrets from their good buddy and pal Trump.

And, given that the US is still technically at war with the DPRK because of the Korean War…well, that really does add an interesting complication to the problem at hand. And, honestly, that’s the thing that is so interesting about what is going on — why what happened for the FBI to strike now? Did they learn something? Did Trump do something so egregious that they had to move in to stop him from continuing to do it?

But the thing we have to contemplate tonight is this — there is a greater-than-zero chance that a former president of the United States has been caught selling state secrets to our most absolute sworn geopolitical enemies. And, what’s more, even if we politically neutralize him, there are a dozen other would be-autocrats who will be the ones to finally end American democracy.

What’s more likely to happen, of course, is Trump will announce his 2024 bid and there just won’t be the political will to do anything about him, ever. Good luck. Get out the country while you still can, I guess.

WW3: Thinking The Unthinkable Of A Limited Nuclear Exchange

by Shelt Garner

I’m going to assume that if WW3 actually does break out that humanity, rather than completely destroy itself, might do a “Little Death” of a limited nuclear exchange. Even that would be one of the more bleak scenarios in such a situation, but it’s something to work with.

The most obvious scenario of a limited nuclear exchange happening is something like this — an Axis is formed between Russia and China at some point in the future. Then the DPRK and Iran join in and we’re going to the show. It’s the DPRK who has the means, motive and opportunity to strike the USA in such a context that would cause us to suffer the effects of H-Bombs being detonated over few major American cities.

If such a horrific thing happened, then that would definitely mark the end of the “Woke Agenda,” let me tell you. When you have no lights, no Internet and a food supply that’s running low, the least of your concerns would the pronouns you use.

Just the idea that a “city killer” would be use on a few major American cities by the DPRK is enough to make you gulp. Where things get tricky is how the US would respond to such a tragedy. Our kneejerk reaction would be to drop H-bombs on all of the DPRK, but, really, they just have their capital and even that is really close to the Chinese border. So, I assume the US would drop a H-bomb on Pyongyang and use tactical nukes on the rest of that country’s major targets.

But I think we can not really process how life in the United States would change on a practical basis if, say, NYC, LA and Washington D.C. were vaporized by DPRK H-bombs. Everything would change. Nothing would ever be the same. And, on a geopolitical basis, Canada sure would start to look enticing to America as a way to get a second chance.

Anyway, I hope we never have to thinking about any of this in the real world. I just like running scenarios.

WW3: A Russo-Sino Axis & The End Of Pax Americana

by Shelt Garner

After decades of being half-away awake, history is now wide awake and ready to boogie. As part of that suddenly being awake, we face the prospect of the Russians and the Chinese making common cause against Pax Americana. This new Axis might also, along the way recruit Iran and the DPRK.

For the moment, this is rather fanciful.

China has a vested interest — for the time being — in Pax Americana existing so it can slowly rise peacefully within its context. The Chinese are very smart. They know they’re not quite ready to strike in a big away against, say Taiwan, so, lulz, let the Americans have a circle jerk over cancel culture without any major regional war in Asia to worry about.

And, yet, the case could be made that China might see what’s going on between Russia and Ukraine and think NOW is the time to strike. The United States is historically weakened by internal division and the careening existential choice of autocracy or civil war in the 2024 – 2025 time frame.

It’s possible that at some point in the near future all of us will be surprised when there’s a geopolitical tet-a-tet between Putin and Xi and the entire world’s post-WW2 liberal order collapses. China will send Russia arms for its war against Ukraine and Russia will sell China oil. Meanwhile, Xi could lean on the DPRK to attack the South Koreans as some sort of geopolitical distraction for the Americans so China can attack Taiwan.

The Iranians attack Israel and or Iraq to get in on the fun.

Remember, there are no assurances the Good Guys — us — would win such a new series of regional wars, or something that the press would call WW3. It could be that the United States either becomes a MAGA Fortress America or has a civil war and, as such, a new Age of Autocracies is established.

Or, it’s possible that a few billion people during a WW3 for various reasons and when we come out the other side with something akin to United Earth. The process of getting to that point would suck royally, but in the end humanity might find the wherewithal to save itself from itself.

Running The WW3 Scenario

by Shelt Garner

There’s a lot of talk these days about the possibility of World War Three happening. Well, let’s think about how it might happened and what it would, in practical terms, look like.

The first issue is we don’t know if Putin is a rational actor or not on the world stage. But, then, we didn’t expect him to invade Ukraine and he did that, so we have to take seriously that he might go after the Baltic states who are members of NATO.

If he did that, then, yes, in a legal sense WW3 would begin. But a lot would depend on what happened after that. If Putin just fucked with the Baltic states, that wouldn’t really be WW3 unless there was some sort of limited nuclear exchange. Him just scaring the shit out of the Baltics enough that it was considered an act of war and caused them to invoke NATO’s Article 5…would just be really meaningless – but scary — events.

What Putin would need would be an Axis of some sort. He would need other major powers who wanted to challenge Pax America as well to act in unison with him. This would require, of course, Putin to convince President Xi of China to attack Taiwan — potentially with tactical nukes after Putin had broken that particular taboo himself in Ukraine.

Xi might, in turn, lean on the North Koreans to go after the the South Koreans as some sort of distraction. And, if Putin was REALLY LUCKY, he might be able to rope Iran into this particular clusterfuck as well.

As all of this was happening, you would also probably have India and Pakistan going at it as well. So, there you go. That would be WW3 and there would be no assurances that either Pax America survives or that, well, any of us survives.

Keep An Eye On The DPRK

by Shelt Garner

It goes without saying that the DPRK is something of a black box. You just don’t know what’s going on with those guys at any particular moment. And while it’s impossible for someone who isn’t Korean to understand a Korean, I do know enough about how Koreans think to know the DPRK loves to cause trouble at just the wrong moment.

As such, it’s very easy to imagine the DPRK testing an H-Bomb or shooting off an ICBM at any moment just to be assholes. And, if you really wanted to get dark, you might even suggest that they could grow more aggressive with the South Koreans simply because the Russians are actively working to destroy the post-WW2 global order and, well, lulz.

Though, to be fair, I don’t really don’t see the DPRK doing something so suicidal unless it was at the behest of the Chinese in the context of them attacking Taiwan.

But all of that is very speculative. It could be that the DPRK will mind its own business for once and we won’t have anything to worry about.

China Would Make A Severe Strategic Mistake To Attack Taiwan In 2021

by Shelt Garner

Almost no one reads this blog. Like, no one. Maybe almost a 100 people on a good day. Otherwise, I’m just barking into the darkness. So, anything out of the ordinary catches my attention in this site’s Webstats.

Like, why are there people with French URLs who pop up out of the blue? Why are there people in Romania, of all places, who have started to read this blog? Is that one URL I think is a conservative relative who I think it is? And what was with that one person from Brooklyn who spent over an hour doing a deep dive into my rantings on this site? Should I be worried, or pleased with that one?

Anyway, another thing I’ve noticed is a teeny-tiny uptick in hits from China of all places. I think they’re people interested in my rantings about how we’re going to have a civil war at some point between now and January 2025?

Well, if that is the case, all I can say is — slow your roll.

Yes, the United States is as divided as it’s been since the Civil War, but that is going to change the moment there’s a major regional war. For the next four years, until we actually have that civil war (or turn into an autocracy) the United States will become a lot more united the moment we realize we have to gird our loins to save the world, AGAIN.

Around January 2025, however, all that could change.

It would be difficult for the United States to do anything about China — or the DPRK for that matter — if we’re too busy bombing ourselves into oblivion to do anything about it.

So, if you’re some sort of Chinese agent, reading this blog hoping to get a bead on the current American ability to defend Taiwan, that’s my advice.

Don’t Sleep On The DPRK

by Shelt Garner

Things are too quiet. The last few months have been eerie in how peaceful and quiet they’ve been. Given that we’re just about due for a Once A Generation Event, there are any number of things that could throw everything up in the air in a rather abrupt fashion.

If you are old enough to remember 9/11, there was very much a Before and After feel to it. By the night of 9/11, everyone knew that nothing would be the same.

So, if you look around the world, there’s one place that is always on the cusp of fucking things up — the DPRK. Just today, the DPRK announced some sort of “problem’ with their COVID19 restrictions. This is not good.

But, even without that, the DPRK is ripe for something rather spectacular to happen. The DPRK is the geopolitical equivalent of, say, a zit that is always just about to get so infected that you have to go to the doctor. Anything that changes the current status quo with the DPRK would have massive, and I mean MASSIVE, implications for domestic politics in the United States.

In fact, I would say, in a sense a major regional war against the DPRK might be the only thing that could punt the current political crisis the United States is facing down the road a few more election cycles. It’s easy to imagine Democrats keeping Congress and the White House if Biden managed to guide us through a war against the DPRK.

But that would be a very, very risky thing to pin your hopes on. It’s too easy to imagine the DPRK freaking out and nuking a major city or two in the United States if there was any type of war between it and the US.

Anyway, the point is — don’t sleep on the DPRK. It might grow extremely unstable and problematic when we least expect it.

The DPRK Threat Is Still There

by Shelt Garner

We’re overdue for the DPRK do some saber rattling in a big way. I think some of what’s going on is the DPRK probably has a nasty case of COV19 that they’re dealing with and they are to preoccupied with that to shoot off a ICBM or test an H-bomb.

But they’re still a serious, serious problem.

I have ever reason to believe that President Biden will handle the situation in the calm, cool normal manner that, like, a normal president would. And, yet, that doesn’t mean that the DPRK isn’t going to scare the shit out of all of us in the process.

The typical American has an abstract fear of the DPRK. What they don’t have is a full understanding that the DPRK has both the means, motive and opportunity to vaporize a major American city under the right conditions.

At the same time, I can honestly say that I no longer wake up in the middle of the night with the abject fear that Trump is going to end humanity with a stray tweet.

So, as such, we’re far better off than we were. But we need to be prepared for some pretty crazy whack funky things to happen when it comes to the DPRK in the near, near future.