Tag: Second Russian Civil War

A Brief Wargaming Of A Second Russian Civil War

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

First, let me be clear — this is silly. Please ignore what I’m about to write. This says more about my personality than any insight I might have about the subject. But I feel like returning to this topic because it’s intriguing.

The key thing to remember about modern Russia is I believe the current regime is a lot weaker than any of us might believe. It’s a corrupt, poorly managed regime that is propped up by fear and greed. What’s more, there is one key thing that is lacking with Russia these days — it seems to me that Russia, to this day, still lacks a strong sense of national identity.

As such, it seems at least plausible to me that a small, dedicated group of people with a clear vision for Russia’s future could topple the Putin regime with a lot less difficulty than you might otherwise imagine. To me, it seems as though adopting the accoutrements of the Whites from the Russian Civil War would be just the thing to paved the way to victory.

You have instant symbols and ideology to tap into, for people to rally around. The vision for a New Russia would be a constitutional monarchy like found in various nations across Western Europe.

But there are some pretty big obstacles to any of this happening. There just aren’t any leaders who serve as the “vanguard of the proletariat” (wink) when it comes to this overthrow. That’s why the Wagner Group uprising got as far as it did — it is clear that the Russian populace would be very receptive to an uprising of some sort . But you would need leadership.

So, for the time being, this is just an idle summer daydream. I hate violence and don’t want anyone to get hurt, so this is just a bit of idle mental masturbation.

God Save Tsar Harry I?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Since the fall of the Soviet Union, Russia has just not really had a very strong sense of self. As far as I can tell, it hasn’t really even latched on to nationalism so much as a more personal, meh ideology of simple Putianism. That’s what I would credit with how lackluster the support for Putin has been since the Second Russian Civil War began a few hours ago.

So, if I was running the Wagner Group, I would really lean into giving people a reason to believe again. A bigger dream for them to become a part of. As such, I would say, “Help me overthrow Putin, and we’ll have a Tsar again.” Now, the issue is, who would be Tsar? There are a few “pretenders” to the throne who I don’t think anyone takes very seriously but, here me out, through Queen Victoria there is a person you could use — Prince Harry.

Now, this is very funny for a number of reasons, chief amongst them being the Wagner Group is a bunch of thugs and fascists and I don’t think they have it in them to do something as historically cool as put Prince Harry on the throne of new Russian Empire.

But that’s kind of besides the point — pick SOMEONE — to be the new Tsar and then say, “Ok, we’re going to bring back all the trappings of empire if we take power.” There are a few centuries of regalia and tradition established around Empire in Russia and I would tap into that. I would also definitely use that cool white-blue-white flag I’ve seen around some as the new flag of Russia.

I am not suggesting I’m an expert in Russia or Russia history, but just as a casual observer I have noticed that since the fall of the Soviet Union, Russia just hasn’t really had much of a national identity. And bringing back the Tsar would definitely fix that problem for Russia. If it was a *constitutional* monarchy, well, all the better.

How I Would Win The Second Russian Civil War — Bring Back The Tsar

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Please actively ignore this. I don’t know anything about anything, but I just have to get this out of my system. Thanks.

Ok, so, if I had about 25,000 troops, here’s how I would topple Putin. We know that Prigozhin and the Wagner Group controls the general Rostov-on-Don area while some of his forces are making their way to Moscow. Well, I would consolidate what I had in in Rostov and then start to expand from there. For me, the key thing would be to have a ready access to more men.

Also, I would think up some sort of ideology that might get people’s juices flowing. So, I dunno, I would say that if I took over Russia, I would bring back the Tsar or something. That’s the thing about modern Russia, as far as I can tell, it continues to struggle with it’s collective sense of self.

Bringing back a Tsar would definitely give Russians something to fight for again. He might even call his group The Whites or some such, to evoke what happened in the first Russia Civil War.

Anyway. Thank you for coming to my TED talk.