by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls
Trump has generated numerous sizable scandals over the run of his administration to date. To date, either they explode for about a 24 hour period, or they gradually fade from view as people process what happened. The most recent scandal, TrumpUkraine, is different for one important reason — it’s existential.
Any outcome will mark a watershed in modern American politics. It doesn’t matter what happens, we will have entered a new era. If it goes as expected and after the acting DNI testifies before Congress on Thursday all the energy for impeachment fizzles out, then Trump will be even more brazen in his corrupt, criminal behavior. If this is dismissed as just another scandal trumped up by liberals with Trump Derangement Disorder, then there will not be a free and fair election in 2020. Not even close. It’s going to be pretty perfunctory.
There really will be no stopping Trump at that point. He will be above the law. The Constitution won’t really even be in effect anymore. That’s the most likely outcome. I would give it about a 99% likelihood. Republicans have no shame and Democrats have no courage.
But, just for fun, let’s imagine things don’t quite go that way. If instead of all the momentum for impeachment abruptly vanishing like during the later part of the Muller Report situation, what if the pressure to somehow miraculously increases. If the issue of the complaint itself being released becomes the focal point, then I would imagine all those young hack MAGA judges on the Federal bench would slow walk it. That would be their way of effectively making impeachment a moot point. The impeachment investigation would dwindle over the months of the case bouncing around the court system and Trump uses the levers of power to win reelection. Sometime in the middle of his second term it goes to SCOTUS and he wins. Again, game over.
That scenario is also far more likely than the good guys winning. But let’s, just for fun again, imagine that somehow it doesn’t get slow walked. Imagine that it actually bounces around the Judiciary pretty quick. Then, again, any decision would be significant. If SCOTUS sides with Trump, then darkness falls.
But if somehow SCOTUS shocks us all and rules again Trump, then that would be the final endgame. As I’ve said before, this is not 1974 and Trump’s not Nixon. Trump would rather destroy the Constitution than turn over the complaint. So, he ignores the ruling and the Senate won’t convict him. Ta-da. Again, darkness falls.
If somehow the Senate did convict him — which it would not, never — then we have a 9/11 level crisis while we wait to evict Trump from the Oval Office. He will never leave if he was somehow convicted. We will have to physically remove him.
