It’s not really a crisis yet, but just in case things grow dramatic, I’m going to make note of what’s going on with the recent revelation that Trump promised a foreign power something.
This may come to nothing. I am going to do this in reverse order, so newer things are at the top.
11:28 a.m. Thursday, Sept 19th, 2019 Yeah, this is playing out as expected. We’re at an impasse. The law is being broken and Democrats can’t muster the political will to do anything about it. I said this wouldn’t last a 24-hour news cycle and I was right. The person the House talked to apparently bobbed and weaved when asked about the complaint. That’s it. It’s over.
11:22 a.m. Thursday, Sept 19th, 2019 As of right now, things are going like they would otherwise. Trump’s finally tweeted his usual bullshit. It gives the MAGA base comfort that all is well. Really, the only datapoint that might indicate anything out of the ordinary is House members are beginning to leave the meeting with the point person on this matter and they’re saying. “No comment.” That could mean anything. Probably means this is going the way of Trump’s taxes. A problem that is always in the background. The DNI is supposed to testify publicly in a week, but that gives Trump plenty of time to claim Executive Privilege, tell the guy not to do it or to sue whomever necessary to prevent it from happening. Nothing out of the ordinary has happened yet.
10:12 a.m. Thursday, Sept 19th, 2019 It’s just after 10 a.m. and Trump still hasn’t tweeted today. This is still no reason to think there’s a crisis of any sort going on. I will note, however, there is a little bit of a quiet-before-the-storm vibe to the day. But that is most likely just my imagination. There’s still no sense that anything will come of this.
8:56 a.m. Thursday, Sept 19th, 2019 Trump has not tweeted yet. This is not really that big a deal. But in the context of what’s rolling around Twitter, it kind of is. Trump usually responds to stuff like this in knee jerk fashion. So far today, he’s not ranted about the deep state or fake news. Also, a Republican Congressmen on C-Span referenced Kavanaugh missteps by the press. This indicates Republicans aren’t all that concerned with the allegation. That, or the talking points haven’t been written yet.
We’ve come to the point where we have to admit what is obvious: Trump is never going to get impeached because Democrats don’t want to impeach him.
The reasons for this are extremely complex. So complex that I fear my writing is good not enough to convey the situation properly. But, in general, it boils down to a crisis of leadership and playing six dimensional chest in the middle of a gun fight.
First, Speaker Nancy Pelosi has framed the debate such that Democrats have a vested interest in Trump not being impeached and rather pinning the fate of the nation on Trump losing. This is the so-called “self impeachment” she keeps talking about. This has led to such foot dragging that we’re well past the point where we can impeach Trump in his first term. The 2020 election cycle has begun. Neither the time nor the political will exists to do something that is little more that a super censure at this point. In the eyes of House Democratic Leadership, it’s bad politics to send articles of impeachment to the Senate where they will promptly die.
Second, there’s the issue of the Democrats thinking we’re still in a normal liberal democracy. They are completely oblivious to the fact that MAGA is a cult. It’s logic is recursive. MAGA’s whole point is destroying liberal democracy in the United States and installing a Russian-style autocratic “managed Democracy” here. So, when Democrats somehow come to believe that their best case scenario is they don’t impeach Trump and he loses, well, Huston, we have a problem. This makes some massive political assumptions that simply aren’t true. House Democrats believe that if they impeach Trump and he loses he will become a political martyr that will hurt them politically long-term.
This completely ignores that MAGA is a lost cause. In the unlikely event that Trump loses — impeached or not — they are going to pull something, anything out of their ass to explain it away. Trump is an avatar for systemic, existential problems in the American political system. And, in a sense, Trump is more proof that the water is boiling and the frog is dead than he is anything else. If one of your major parties doesn’t believe in democracy anymore, then it’s inevitable that they will make sure there’s no more democracy at every turn.
If you accept that MAGA is a lost cause, then impeachment is your only course of action. But it’s too late. If it happens at all, it will happen at some point in Trump’s second term. Or, more realistically, it will happen against a Democratic president after Trump leaves office (hopefully) in early 2025. Then dipshit Democrats will be shown — AGAIN — that Republicans have no shame and they are not dealing in good faith.
Republicans care about power. To them, power is the endgame. And, so, as such, within 20 years (less) something really big is going to happen. Either a civil war, or Republicans dissolve Blue State governments and replace them with military districts.
So while Nancy Pelosi is studying the tactical aspects of getting a few stray MAGA votes in swing districts, MAGA is burning the entire Republic to the ground. It’s not much of a fair fight. I used to have some hope that something would happen to Trump. That he might face some sort of political consequences. But no longer.
Before you get too excited about tonight’s news, folks, the Republican talking points are being written as we speak. Trump probably promised eastern Ukraine to Russia but, lulz! Tax cuts! This is what Republicans will be spouting on CNN and FOX News tomorrow.
The Deep State has always been gunning for Trump— Trump was right! Trump gave you young hack MAGA judges on the Federal bench, remember? Benghazi! This is a Deep State lie. Fake News. Any evidence this happened is a lie or a Deep Fake. Trump was joking. It’s only one person. He did it illegally. Dox him until his family is threatened. Those tax cuts sure were nice. Lock her up! Hillary Clinton did worse. Obama was caught on a live mic saying he would “have more flexibility” after the election. The economy is doing well, fuck you. Build The Wall! American Carnage If we do anything about this, the economy will tank and there will be a civil war. Fuck you.
The America I grew up in is dead. The dystopia is here. I don’t know how long it will last, but if we’re lucky somewhere around 40 years. But it could be I’ll never know if and when it ends because I’ll be dead.
It’s over because no matter what happens with Trump, the forces in America society that caused Trump remain. And if it’s not Trump, it’ll be Don Jr., or Tom Cotton or someone equally authoritarian and nefarious. The chief reason why the dystopia is here is Democratic leadership did not take the rise if MAGA seriously. Though, in their defence, if Trump had not won in 2016, a MAGA-type person would have won in 2020 or 2024. It was simply a matter of time.
When one of a nation’s major political parties loses its mind, it’s inevitable that they will gain power at some point. And when they take power, they will never leave because they follow “new rules” that value power over everything else. Or, put another way, the intersection of power politics, absolute greed and Evangelical Christian obsession with bringing about the Second Coming produced a force of politics that only cared about obtaining — and keeping — power forever. Democrats are so busy worrying about their precious “agenda” and keeping moderates in their caucus happy that they’ll simply are not prepared to do what is necessary to defend American democratic traditions alive the 20 or 30 years necessary for the Browning of America to kick in.
So, really, the question is how quickly things go from simply norm destruction to actual changes in government. My guess is Trump is going to make a massive power grab at some point in the 2020 election cycle. If it goes wrong, there will be something of a revolt on the part of Blue States. He uses that as an excuse to abolish Blue State governments indefinitely. America will become a prison. The issue will become where all the creatives and information workers escape to.
Do they go to Canada or Europe? It won’t be thousands who flee, either. It could be millions. Until, of course, The Thousand Year Trump freaks over the brain drain and makes it impossible for the very people they hate so much to leave the country. Given human nature, of course, that won’t stop the United States from descending into something resembling modern day Venezuela. This will only hasen our collapse into authoritarianism. The camps for immigrants will simply become cames for anyone who crosses House Trump or its successor ruling family.
I used to think there was the possibility of some sort of happy endgame. I no longer do. At this point, I simply wonder if I die in a House Trump re-education came sooner or later. Will it be sometime in Trump’s second term or will it be closer to 20 years from now? Regardless, if Blue States try to leave the Union, House Trump will abolish their state governments. All those young hack parison judges that The Federalist Society has recommended to Trump will close ranks.
There’s a chance that freedom of speech will linger. But freedom of assembly definitely is done for at some point during Trump’s second term. There will be something akin to the failed coup in Turkey that Trump will use to purge the last vestiges of the “deep state.” Tyranny will descend upon the United States and we will be no different than the managed democracy of Russia. Remember, Putinism was originally a popular movement caused by divisions in Russian society. And to some extent is still is. The same with MAGA. MAGA doesn’t care about anything about absolute power. When a small — but wealthy and powerful — minority of your electorate no longer believes in the benefits of democracy, then there’s nothing you can do.
I knew the America I loved was over when I realized we have to fight so hard on a daily basis to simply have a functioning civil society. Darkness has fallen on the land. Democrats have failed us.
All I can do to vent my frustration over all of this is write a novel. That’s all I got. It distracts me from the political hellscape engulfing the country I love.
The thing about MAGA is it’s based on a lie. The whole thing is bullshit. Really, at its core, MAGA is identity politics for white people. Throw in some base misogyny and nativism and amosexualism and Christian persecution porn and you have yourself a very powerful political movement.
What’s so astonishing to me is how easy is it to grift MAGA. Sometimes, the bigger the grift, the more popular you are. That, I think, explains MAGA. Trump is the biggest grifter of all. His grift has become so successful that it’s the basis of a cult of personality.
I have, on more than one occasion, thought about trying the grift myself. It would be very easy to abruptly change political views a la Dennis Miller. Within six months, I’d likely be having lunch with Trump himself. The need for grift is that powerful within the MAGA movement.
The whole thing has become so ridiculous — and is so based on hair-trigger hypocrisy — that wild things happen over and over again. The most recent example of this is the surreal attack on Debra Messing. She committed — as I understand it — a minor infraction on Twitter and the MAGA echo chamber is out for blood. But it seems pretty obvious that the whole thing is not being done in good faith and it’s being used as excuse to own a lib that Trump has attacked recently.
This is a prime example of how Trump is simply an avatar for a deeper, darker, problem in American society. We’ve reached the point where MAGA will do anything to get and keep power to such an extent that the “Resistance” simply can’t keep up. When your political opponent is an ideological zombie and you’re trying to reason with them using “norms” you’re setting yourself up for failure.
What might happen is sometime in the middle of Trump’s second term, the center-Left might realize it has to adopt the “new rules” of MAGA to defend itself. Unfortunately, while it has to be done for simple political survival, long term it’s the setup for nothing less than a civil war — or a military junta. There may come a time, I’m afraid, when Blue States begin to believe that the only way to keep any semblance of freedom is to leave the Union altogether. That definitely would put the Red States absolute desire to “own the libs” to the test, now wouldn’t it.
It’s kind of sad when the best case scenario you can think of to keep yoru nation together long-term is a military junta. But that’s some time down the road. For the time being the MAGA grift will continue. The center-Left is, sadly, a bunch of wussies in my opinion. I’ve mulled the need for, on an ideological level, a form of Radical Resistance. But in hindsight I realize I was extremely naive. MAGA is a cancer that is going to kill the patient and I can’t see that there is anything to do about it.
I believe with 200% certainty that Donald Trump will have a second term. Whatever you think the worst case scenario with Trump might be, we’re going to see that and worse. At this point, it’s really just a matter of decree. Will Trump declare himself president for life? Will he abolish the House? Will he actively work to degrade norms and laws to such an extent that any president who isn’t MAGA at some point in the future is not seen as legitimate and is completely neutered?
Or put another way — it’s growing pretty apparent that America is hurdling towards some mish-mash of Apartheid South Africa and modern day Venezuela. America is going to a third world country with an obscene amount of WMD. Or, put another way, the 1% will prosper and everyone else will sink into poverty, sickness and ignorance.
I say all this because Trump is an avatar for systemic, existential problems in American society and governing. Eliminate Trump as political force and someone else will pop up to fill the need. A series of groups who follow the “new rules” system of politics will do everything in their power to make sure Trump gets a second term. They will break laws, they will lie with abandon, they will hack the election, you name is. Whatever they have to do see a second term, they will do.
And the so-called “Resistance” is so busy with identity politics that they’re going to let it happen from sheer incompetence, if nothing else. The worse part of all of this is it couldn’t be avoided. People might bitch and moan about how if only Hillary Clinton had won in 2016 all of this might have been avoided, but they’re deluding themselves. The racism of the Obama Era would have become the misogyny of the Hillary Clinton Era. Trump or someone like him would have run in 2020 and won.
I honestly don’t know what can be done at this point. When one of the two major parties fundamentally is not operating in good faith and is wilful in its refusal to accept any fact that hurts them, then, well, that’s it. It’s over.
What’s worse is, ultimately, I think, either the Blue States bolt from the Union at some point in the next 20 years or some successor to Trump will abolish them altogether. Blue States will be run by MAGA appointed governments. In fact, the best case scenario is the military will step in and rule via a junta. That’s the best case scenario.
People who get too wrapped up in Trump miss the point — Trump just fills a function. It could be anybody like Trump. In fact, if you wanted make yourself feel better, you could say in a way Trump’s criminal incompetence has actually slowed the inevitable progression into tyranny. In his second term, Trump’s mental deterioration will only increase. So it might be a little bit more difficult for him to full-fill is despotic dreams.
But at some point after, say, 2025, someone younger and more focused will do what Trump could not do. I would say it will probably be some sort of wide-spread civil disturbance in Blue States that will be the excuse. Or a major terrorist attack. Only Red States will be allowed to have any form of functioning democracy and even then it will be strictly monitored and controlled.
There’s no turning back. Nothing we can do other than vote. I’d like to think freedom of speech might linger long enough for me to die before it’s completely extinguished, but I’m probably fooling myself.
While I would be overjoyed if House Democrats finally pull their thumbs out of their asses and impeached Trump, my elation would come with some qualifications. The issue is, Trump is an avatar for an existential problem in America that is not going away anytime soon. In fact, I would propose it won’t fade until about 20 years from now when the youngest of the Baby Boomers die off just around the time we reach a tipping point with the browning of America.
Though impeaching Trump makes a lot of sense on an abstract level, actually doing it is problematic. Again, I’m not saying we shouldn’t do it — we should. I’m just pointing out that doing it — even successfully — won’t be the panacea too many people on Twitter seem to think it would be. First and foremost, it is likely to fail. So Trump could run as having been “vindicated” the moment he’s acquitted by the Senate. What’s worse, even if impeaching Trump was somewho, miraculously successful, that would mean Pence would have not one, but two opportunities to run for president as an incumbent.
But this raises another issue — Trump is such a horrible person and president the issue of impeachment may eventually be out of all of our hands. I could see more than one scenario where Trump’s mental state grows so dangerous — like 9/11 crisis dangerous — that things fall apart for Trump not in months or weeks but days. In fact, in a sense, that’s the only way impeachment makes any sense to me at this point — to fix a specific crisis. Trump has such a lock on the minds of about 35% of the electorate that while we should impeach him, we should also manage our expectations as to what it will accomplish.
And, yet, really, long term we have to accept that given that Trump is no more than an avatar for a deep existential problem with the United States that there is, in fact, no bottom as to how far things are likely to go. If Federal elections don’t become perfunctory, then there will be active hacking by the Russians. If that doesn’t work, then MAGA will intimidate and bribe individual electors. ICE will be weaponized and the existing camps will be filled not with asylum seekers, but with anyone who has the temerity to challenge the the will of The Leader. I wish this was being hysterical, but it’s not. This is a real possibility. We could go full Russian manage democracy in brief few years. Like, less than five.
I wish I could tell you there was some solution. There’s none. Short term, I would suggest that the Left adopt the “new rules” that the Right is so fond of. We go eyeball-to-eyeball with them every political chance we can get. If that means the government grinds to down to a Singularity, so be it. And, really, at this point there are no good endgames. Here are some possibilities.
Junta It’s possible that the only thing that will keep America together is the military. This is so alien to the American tradition that things would really, really have to get bad. But the military is the lone institution that commands the respect of the general populace, so it may be the only thing that keeps the country together long term.
“Wayward Sisters, Part In Peace” In this scenario, there is a peaceful division of the country alone political lines on a state level. At best, we have some sort of economic union. At worse, the two sides will hate each other at this point that not even that will happen. The real fight will be over which country gets the US “brand.” Otherwise, the Red States will descend into a third world status while the Blue States will continue to grow and prosper.
The Apocalyptic Rock Fight In this scenario, the division of the country gets out of hand. The two sides begin to drop a-bombs on each other until the entire country in ruin. Eventually one side will graduate to h-bombs and things will really get interesting. I only even suggest this possibility because MAGA is a manifestation of a cancer on the American psyche that is so dark, so depraved that is may swerve into such a bloodlust that, well, there’s no turning back.
Apartheid Era South Africa Meets Modern Venezuela Meets Reconstruction America In this scenario, we have sort of a dystopian middle ground. Even though the brown of America has happened, white America clings to economic and political power with a death grip. Meanwhile, because of gross corruption, America is finally a third world country with nukes. We’re alone and scared on the world stage. Large swaths of the populace feel completely disenfranchised. Only the poor pay taxes and the rights of women and minorities are harshly repressed. What’s more Blue States are now little more than military districts without any formal representation in Congress.
And, so, that’s it. Those all the endgames I can think of. None of them make me feel good, none of them I want. But the more I think about it, the more it seems there are a few fundimental flaws in the Constitution. Among them the Electoral College and the Senate. But the Senate is so fundamental to the American system that I think that, in itself, means America will soon be a failed state in all but name. In a sense it already is and we’re just deluding ourselves.
In real terms, I guess all we can do is stay aware of what’s happen and try to, on an individual level, make or corner of America a better place. America is over. The end.
Whatever is wrong with Donald Trump is getting worse. And, yet, because of a combination of the Overton Window and the cult of personality associated with Trump, I don’t see any end game that involves Trump leaving office any time before Jan. 20th, 2025.
But we are definitely in a new era when it comes to the Trump Administration. When Trump looked up at the sun and called himself “The chosen one,” that brought the issue of his mental health to the forefront. The reason why the Muller Report freaked MAGA out so much was it was something they could not easily dismiss. Mueller was widely seen as an objective third party and had he done what we all believed he would do — indict the president or his son — they would face a real existential crisis.
That obviously did not happen. And, so, if it was anyone else in Trump’s position, they could shore up power and cruise into a second term of gutting the “administrative state,” bankrupting the nation and ruining the environment in peace. But now that Trump is slowly creeping towards being demonstrably mentally unwell, MAGA thought leaders again find themselves with a topic they would rather not talk about. Because they actually LIKE the cruel un-American policies of the Trump Administration, arguing with them about them is a moot point. In large part because they’re fucking racists, it’s not like you’re going to change their minds.
So what we all thought Mueller would do to Trump, Trump may do to himself. We aren’t there yet, but we’re slowly edging towards a situation where everyone is talking about how bonkers Trump is except for MAGA talking heads. Why Trump’s deteriorating mental state is so dangerous to the MAGA cause is as of right now, no one seems to be ready to step in an establish a Regency, even in private. So there’s a chance that there never will be one and Trump could, in fact, conspicuously lose his mind in some manner and the nation would have no recourse. Too many powerful, wealthy people have a vested interest in Trump staying president — even in an incapacitated way — and as such they will do everything in their power to keep him right where he is.
Really, the only thing that has subtly changed is it’s far more difficult for people to say they take Trump “seriously, but no literally.” I would compare Trump looking up at the sun and calling himself “The chosen one” as similar to when Jimmy Carter gave his famous “malaise” speech. That changed the mood of the country and set the stage for the Reagan Revolution.
We are now slowly reaching a crisis point. The crisis could be something like this: Trump finally loses his mind and instead of impeaching him over being a criminal and traitor, the House impeaches him over his tweets. This would give them plenty of opportunities to have shrinks testify that Trump is a threat to the country and should be removed. Things get a little surreal at this point in that if Trump really goes off the deep end, there’s a greater than zero chance that the Senate might actually convict him. The only reason this might happen is because it would position Pence to run not once, but twice for president. And so, there’s a least a chance that Trump will live to fight another day even though he’s completely bonkers. Republicans will continue to support him no matter what while Democrats will continue to delude themselves that he will “self-impeach.”
So, having said all that, for what I propose to happen, there would have to be a crisis. It would have to happen really quick and in a conspicuous manner. His ultimate downfall would be in days, not weeks or months. The entire country would have to be in shock at how bad things had gotten. It would have to be 9/11 levels of crisis. Otherwise, nothing happens. Trump coasts into a second term and we have four years of a very ineffective Regency. If it takes too long to fix, Trump can simply start a war with Iran and by the time we get around to remembering Trump being insane he has set the stage for someone like Tom Cotton to take over in 2025.
The reason I say all of this is Trump is an avatar for systemic cancer in American society. An alliance of plutocrats, Russians, misogynists evangelicals, gun nuts, racists and morons have an absolute interest in things staying just the way they are, no matter what. Even if the economy tanks, the Russians will hack the election, or Trump will bribe or bully individual Electors. And then there will be no political will to do anything about it, just like there’s no political will to do anything about Trump now.
It’s a great tragedy that the only if the president completely loses his mind in a spectator fashion will there even be a hint of the political will to get rid of him. And then that sets up Pence being president for over eight years and things just go from bad to worse.
I don’t know what to tell you folks. I guess turn out the light, the party’s over.
The first era of the Trump Administration was the period of time between the firing of James Comey and Mueller’s testimony before Congress. If Trump was not completely unqualified either in temperament or managerial abilities he probably would coast to an an easy re-election. He would simply be the precursor to his inevitable younger, more focused fascist successor.
And, yet, the recent 35 minute press conference where he rambled about American Jews not being loyal and said he was “The Chosen One” is a new era for him and his administration. Now that we’re not thinking about Mueller bringing Trump down, it’s beginning to sink in that Trump is not well mentally.
It’s only going to get worse, too.
At this point, the issue is does Trump lose it publicly or privately. If he loses it privately, we probably will never know that he’s catatonic in his bed. All his tweets will be written by someone pretending to be him. And the powerful people who crave his sweet, sweet authoritarian rule will figure out a way to fake him actually being cognizant. Only long after his second term is over will we learn that it was all a lie and Trump lost his mind.
That’s kind of the best case scenario for the Russians and MAGA plutocrats who want to drive America into a ditch and shit all over it. If Trump is giving a speech and he goes Howard Beale on us, that would be a different matter altogether. For a president to go completely bonkers is not something any of us is prepared for. It would cause a 9/11 level of crisis in the American government.
The crux of the issue is our best bet is some sort of informal Regency would be created. It’s not like we’re ever going to get rid of Trump, so he could quite literally go batshit insane on live TV and nothing of note would happen to him. There just isn’t the political will and America is just too divided.
That’s all I got, folks. But maybe this worst case scenario won’t happen. Maybe Trump will just be somewhat addled for the next few years. Maybe he’ll go the Reagan route and finish up his term, get to pick his successor and America will finally be a true fascist state.
A recent Federal court ruling says individual Electors are free agents. So, in real terms, the only thing stopping them from voting for whomever the wish is their personal affinity for the party they represent.
Given that Electors are pretty much just average people, it is inevitable that a faithless Elector — or two — is going to put a spanner into the democratic process sooner rather than later. Given how divided America is, I don’t see this problem being fixed any time soon, no matter what happens.
So, I could see Trump losing the 2020 election only to win the Electoral College because he personally doxed them all. I could see the entire Republican Party attacking individual after the actual popular vote to such an extent that the whole thing is at least thrown into the House where Republicans probably would have a decent shot of winning.
The whole nation being divided thing makes it almost impossible to get rid of the Electoral College long after it’s proven to be a fatal flaw in our entire Constitutional system. In fact, the only way I could see any reform on the matter is if the Electoral College went rouge en masse. If someone who wasn’t from either one of the major parties won, then I think both sides would suddenly have a reason to work together to fix the issue.
Now, the one thing about the power of the Electoral College is it’s a lot like quantum physics. The actual use of the human being that make up the Electoral College to stymie the will of the people is so profound that there’s no way of knowing what would happen. Legally, we’re stuck with whomever the Electoral College picks. That’s it. Once they vote, that’s the president. The only exception is a tie, whereby it goes to the House where the states vote by delegation. Each state gets only one vote.
The average person is simply not prepared for what would happen if the Electoral College went rouge. I don’t have an easy answer for what the reaction would be. Really, the only bright spot of saying Electors are free agents is you never know when that might come in handy. The Electoral system is so bad in modern terms that there are a few scenarios one could think up whereby you might want free agent Electors. One is the idea the Russians might brazenly hack the election in 2020. If they do so in a really brazen fashion, the idea that Electors might vote for who _actually_ won once we looked into things is at least something to make you feel a little better.
But I just don’t see the 2020 election being normal. In fact, I think it is probably going to be the last proof we need that the United States is no longer a democracy. In the end, I’m afraid, no matter what the popular vote, Trump will be sworn in for a second term
A surreal combination of demographics, power and money make it nearly inevitable that until something really wild happens, we’re going to have autocratic Republican presidents for the next few decades. The America that I grew up in is gone. We’re now much like the Roman Empire in its early days when it refused to accept that it was, in fact, an empire.
Republicans are going to remake America at last. In fact, I would go so far as to say the only thing that may save us is the apolitical nature of the US Military. It may be that a junta has to step in at some point. That may, in fact, be the only thing that keeps the country together in the end. Otherwise, the country is going to split apart — peacefully or otherwise.
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