Category: Tsar-A-Largo

Some Scenarios Of The Near Trump Future

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

I love to run scenarios in my head, so let’s sketch out various possible outcomes to what’s going on with Trump and see how close we get to what really happens.

1. The Wag The Dog
In this scenario, we’re at war with the DPRK by August and along the way Trump fires who he needs to fire and pardon’s who he needs to pardon and the whole Stormy Daniels problem vanishes down the memory hole. The war is dirty, but brief and about 1 million die. Of course, there are some curve balls that could happen during the course of the war including North Korean sleeper cells being activated and there being a real death toll of American civilians in the heartland. Or any number of other weird outcomes could occur that would not result in the things being as tidy as Trump would hope. War is hell and strange things happen all the time once you actually start them.

2. The Iran-Contra
In this one, the United States is just too divided, and the issue is just too muddied and we don’t finally pin Trump down. All we get, at best, is a televised speech where Trump wanly says he’s “sorry” and we all move on and Trump wins reelection.

3. Blue Wave: All Hell Breaks Loose
In this one, Trump fires Mueller, the Stormy Daniels scandal reaches a tipping point there’s an actual Blue Wave in November. Trump is impeached by the House and convicted by the Senate, but Trump refuses to accept the outcome and there’s a shoot out on the lawn of the White House between the Secret Service and the FBI. The United States is on the brink of civil war until Pence pardon’s Trump and actively tries to calm the situation down. Pence is worse than Trump in some ways because he has an ideology and there’s a lot of resentment against him by a large segment of the population. Also, there is the possibility that by the time all this happens we will reach such anger in the populace that even Pence is removed and we endup with a Democratic president in a round about way. Or it’s possible that if it Trump sees its obvious that he’s going to be impeached, the Vichy Republicans Congress may negotiate a deal whereby someone like Ivanka Trump may replace Pence during a lame duck session after the Blue Wave.

I honestly have no idea which one of these will happen. It’s likely it will be some muddled mixture of the three. Only time will tell.

V-Log: Some Thoughts On Stormy Daniels & Donald Trump #Resist

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

The main issue at this point is if there is anything that will break the cult of personality associated with Donald Trump. It’s very possible that we may find out if Trump really could kill someone on 5th Avenue on FOX News and it not cause him any political damage.

It really could get that bad.

But we’ll see. It’s weird that Trump has two major scandals now that would otherwise bring down any other administration. But with Trump — nothing. Trump has a very powerful hold on the Republican Party and I just don’t know if it will ever be broken. It’s sad but true.

The two videos below deal with this.

My Hottake On H.R. McMaster Leaving The White House

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

This is one of those times when either it means something or it doesn’t. Either Trump picks warmonger John Bolton as his National Security Adviser or he doesn’t. So, for the time being we’re in limbo. We’re both going to war with the DPRK and who knows who else, or we’re not.

At this point, there are no easy answers.

My gut tells me John Bolton — sans weird mustache — is going to get the gig. And then all hell will break loose. If Bolton gets the gig, then my prediction that we’re at war with the DPRK by August is on track. If he doesn’t get the gig, then we can all take a huge sigh of relief and go about our business being angry about other stupid shit on the part of the Trump Administration.

My gut tells me it’s going to be Bolton, but my gut has been wrong before. So, we may get to the precipice and then walk away. I only say all of this because if Bolton has Trump’s ear, then a preemptive war with the DPRK seems like a very real possibility. That, at least, is Bolton’s reputation. I could be wrong. Maybe he will surprise us.

But that would make no sense given his history of touting war.

We just don’t know yet. It could go either way. He hasn’t gotten the job yet, so there’s still a chance that sanity will prevail and we won’t have to worry about any of this. But time will tell.

The Coming Korean Nightmare #Resist

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

I’m still of the opinion that we’re on track for a war with the DPRK by August 2018. I believe one of two things will happen if and when Donald Trump meets with North Korean leader Kim Jung Un: either Trump gives the DPRK everything they want unilaterally and we’re all left aghast at how crazy it all is, or the whole thing is a complete disaster and we lurch towards a needless war the likes of which we’ve not seen since World War I.

I have no inside knowledge, so I don’t know which one it will be. That, in itself makes me nervous. It makes far more sense that Trump would storm out of a meeting with Kim as opposed to hug him. Keep an eye on John Bolton. If John Bolton becomes National Security Adviser, then we’re going to war.

We’re going to war because Trump needs a “big reboot” desperately. He needs a 9/11 size event so Stormy Daniels and any number of other scandals fall into the memory hole. And, remember, if Trump starts a war in August, it will likely be wrapped up by Veterans Day and that will make his fucking parade evening bigger and more popular.

I only say any of this because it just makes too much strategic sense. I’m not suggesting a conspiracy, I’m just saying if you’re Donald Trump — and lack of basic human empathy — and you finally feel comfortable with traditional statecraft, it makes a lot of sense to “wag the dog” in a pretty epic manner.

And Trump is going to get away with it. We’re going to wake up in 2025 and see President Tom Cotton being sworn in. There really isn’t much we can do about it, sad to say.

Tipping Point: Dark Forces Are Aligning Against Trump & Using Stormy Daniels

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

I am just the right age to remember what was going on 20 years ago with then President Bill Clinton and Monica Lewinsky. There came a point, a tipping point, when the scandal took on a life of its own and it just blew up far faster than anyone could have possibly have imagined.

I feel as though we’re lurching towards a similar tipping point with Donald Trump and Stormy Daniels. I say this only because this scandal isn’t going away, at least for the time being. I think some of it is how simple this scandal is, how traditional it is — it’s a presidential sex scandal.

As such, the mouth breathers out there who don’t care or understand TrumpRussia, are able to wrap their dumb minds around it in a way they can’t with the rest of the dumpster fire that is the Trump Administration. Something feels different about the Stormy Daniels mess. It seems as though dark forces have aligned to bring down the Trump Administration in a way none of us could have possibly expected.

That’s thing thing about what happened to Bill Clinton. The whole thing really was a witch hunt because a small group of people had a personal hatred of him. Linda Tripp, the Goldberg family and Matt Drudge used Monica Lewinsky to put Bill Clinton in a logic trap, one that nearly cost him his presidency. I’m suggesting that it’s possible, not probably, that a similar situation is afoot. It’s possible that some very powerful people have finally grown fed up with Trump and they believe they’ve figured out how to get rid of him: a traditional sex scandal.

But I have no inside information, it’s just a hunch. So only time will tell. I will suggest, however, that if you combine Stormy Daniels with Bob Mueller’s TrumpRussia investigation the Trump Administration is facing an existential threat in a way none of us could have expected.

Only time will tell, I guess.

The Possible Iran-Contra Endgame For #TrumpRussia

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

For all the liberal fever dreams about how Trump will eventually be impeached by the House and convicted by the Senate, we have to accept that by the time Robert Mueller finally presents his conclusions to the Congress, things could be so completely muddled that it will be a moot point.

Add to that the cold, hard fact that Trump’s poll numbers are creeping up and Trump could very well pull an epic wag the dog by starting a preemptive war against the DPRK and you have a recipe for a Iran-Contra type endgame for #TrumpRussia.

It’s a classic instance of history maybe not repeating, but definitely rhyming. Iran-Contra was a huge Constitutional clusterfuck for several different reasons and the president at the time, Ronald Reagan managed to escape relatively unscathed. So, it’s very possible that if the economy continues to do well along with a strategic and timely war with the DPRK (and maybe some painful, uncharacteristic groveling) Trump could not only escape serious political harm, he could manage to prosper enough to have a second term.

The only reason why I suggest Trump might do the required public self-flagellation needed for the Iran-Contra endgame to come to be is what he did as part of the Access Hollywood tape scandal. He said he was sorry and he was able to go about his business. And, if Trump does, in fact, find himself at risk of being impeached, I have a feeling he’ll bend his knee to the public to save his job.

Though, I have to note, presidential second terms are not known for being all that great. The usually are pretty shitty compared to energetic first term. Usually, by the middle of the second term, Americans begin to grow unhappy with an president and weird things begin to happen. Trump, himself, is a manifestation of this. So, should Trump slouch towards a second term, some seriously fucked up shit might happen.

My biggest fear is that America’s already broken democracy is finally shatter altogether and there’s no going back. We will finally enter an era of fully “managed democracy” like they have in Russia. I used to think that could never happen, that America has too much spunk. But I’m afraid I’m beginning to lose hope. I’m beginning to fear that we’re fucked. I’m beginning to fear that there will never be a free and fair election in the United States in my lifetime. Or, if a Democrat wins it will be because of a really bizarre fluke.

It’s all very unfortunate, very sad and tragic. The major problem is we’re in an extended Civil Cold War with no end in sight. In fact, I might suggest that only a real civil war might end this turmoil. But the greater tragedy may be that when push come to shove there won’t be a war at all. The states will split peacefully for no other reason that they have, at last, nothing in common.

TrumpRussia, Iran-Contra And How We’re All Doomed

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

It’s growing ever more obvious that we’re doomed. The rabid efforts on the part of the Republicans to discredit the investigation of Robert Mueller into TrumpRussia are largely successful and there’s nothing we can do about it. Even if the “Blue Wave” happens in 2018, things will be so muddled that in real terms it won’t matter. Trump will evade impeachment and or impeachment and conviction and we’re stuck with him until at least 2021, if not longer.

I say longer because there’s a real chance that for various quirky reasons Trump will win re-election and will serve out a full eight years. The question, of course, is what kind of nation will he leave behind him once he finally leaves office.

But having said all that, the closest historical analogy I can find to what I think will happen with TrumpRussia is Iran-Contra. The only reason why I suggest that to dramatically different scandals may endup the same is that in the end, well, nothing really happened. Though Reagan got out of his jam by saying he was sorry, Trump will get out of his jam by muddying the waters to such an extent that even if he’s caught red handed there won’t be any national consensus as to what to do. But the end result of the two scandals will be the same: nothing. Even though Reagan should have been forced out of office, he wasn’t. And, too, Trump should been forced out of office, but he won’t.

We’re doomed. We’re completely doomed and Trump and his MAGA people will ruin the country once and for all. Add to this the implacable dumb beat for a Constitutional Convention and it really does seem that all is lost. I hope this isn’t the case, but as of right now, that seems to be exactly where we are.

That’s why someone like Oprah is such an appealing candidate for me. She inspires hope. She is everything Trump isn’t and yet shares many of his skillset. History is very strange — especially in this era — and maybe, just maybe some sort of hopeful event might pop up when I least expect it.

The Moment Someone Mentions The ‘Pence Pivot,’ I’m Going To Lose My Shit

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

It goes without saying that we’ve finally achieved dystopia. This has happened in large part to complete complacency of the “Lulz, nothing matters” conservatives who are too busy raising their children, working hard and paying taxes to care about anything Trump does. They just don’t care. They cared for a few days in late 2016 around the election and they made their decision.

Everyone else, meanwhile, looks around and sees hell. The very things that people like me have been worried about when it comes to Trump have come to pass. We’re careening towards a theocratic, autocratic plutocracy. This has been building for decades and with the advent of Trump has accelerated at light speed. We still have several more years of Trump bad behavior before the “Lulz, nothing matters” conservatives finally begin to care again. In fact, it may be 2020 or 2024 before they stop raising their kids long enough to pause, again, to take an interest in politics.

It is because of the “Lulz, nothing matters” conservatives that Bob Mueller could prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that Trump’s 2016 campaign colluded with the Russians and nothing will happen. Add to all of this the very real possibility that Trump will wag the dog by starting a war with the DPRK and the future of the United States is pretty dark for the next few decades.

But should Trump finally, finally do something so heinous, so obscene that the “Lulz, nothing matters” conservatives get woke, there is a very real possibility that at the very moment they agree with me that Trump has, at last, gone too far and has to go, they will do the Pence Pivot. The Pence Pivot, at least in my mind, is when a Trump supporter says, in essence, that it was all worth it because they wanted Mike Pence to be president, anyway.

I am not a violent man, but the first time someone uses that argument on line or in person, I’m going to lose my shit. I am going to scream until I’m mute. That someone would just ignore the damage Trump has done with the wave of a hand and say it doesn’t matter Pence is president now is such an affront to everything I believe in I’m going to flip my lid. I’m going to lose my shit.

But I doubt we’ll ever get to that point. The “Lulz, nothing matters” conservatives are so content with Trump’s insane vision of America that we will never reach the Trump Singularity when the Pence Pivot happens. There’s nothing we can do. Nothing. This is it. The end. The America that I knew growing up is no more and the only reason why I’m not moving back to Seoul is, in real terms, I can’t.

Of The Resistance, #NeverTrump, A United Front, The #2018Midterms & A Flag

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

I propose a United Front against Donald Trump in the 2018 election cycle designed with the sole purpose of electing people to Congress willing to vote to impeach and convict Donald Trump. Right now, there are two groups: the Left’s Resistance and the Right’s #NeverTrump. I propose the two formally united the banner of a United Front.

Now, I like to name things and the first name for a united front that comes to mind is the Jackson-Lincoln United Front, uniting the founders of the two major political parties. But, of course, everyone wants to hate on Jackson these days for being a horrible racist, so that would be problematic. So, maybe Washington-Lincoln might be better. Or even the Roosevelt-Reagan United Front. Something symbolic that represents the two sides of the political spectrum. Or, hell, maybe even the Comey United Front. I’d know. Work with me.

I also suggest a flag to go with the United Front. Now, the reaction of many — many nearly all — is we already have a flag, Old Glory, which would be perfect for the job. But to suggest that misses the point. Old Glory is great and all, but we need something specific to a United Front that would help united people in the specific goal of impeaching and convicting Donald J. Trump. There are so many things we could impeach Trump for at this point that the Articles of Impeachment write themselves.

Some Thoughts On How America Gets Out Of This Trump Mess #Resist

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

The existential question of the day is whether or not Donald Trump is a fluke or the dawn of a new, dystopian era in American history. One thing is fore sure, Trump’s rise to power is the culmination of structural, systemic issues in the American body politic. Not to invoke his name too lightly, but Trump, in a sense, is an American Hitler if you think of history but as the biography of great men.

It is possible that the United States will bounce back, at least momentarily, from this Bad King. I mean, Caligula in all his insanity didn’t manage to bring down the Roman Empire. But I do think Trump is endemic of the end of the American Republic. The entire system is so broken, so built to squash leadership in any meaningful way, that there’s a real chance the United States is fucked.

And, yet, it is at least possible to put a positive spin on things. But it would require some pretty astonishing things to happen. The crux of the issue is — has Trump so fundamentally warped American politics that we can’t go back to traditional politicians? Have we reached Idiotracy at last and from now one, our politicians have to be establish celebrities and our celebrities have to be politicians? The answer to that kind of question will come, probably about November 2018.

When people begin to throw their hats into the presidential ring in earnest in late 2018, that will determine the tempo of things. A lot, unfortunately, depends on one Donald J. Trump. If Trump manages to survive past 2020 and have a second term, it’s really likely that there really will be no turning back. It’s very possible that we will have entered a new era in American political life that really is dark and uncharted. A lot depends who Trump is going to be up against in 2020.

I have long suggested that the only type of person who could defeat Trump, who is nothing more than overgrown middle-school bully, would be the adult equivalent of a middle-school class clown. It seems readily apparent that someone like Jon Stewart, Stephen Colbert or even Chelsea Handler might be the silver bullet that might be able to slay the political monster that is Trump. Handler, in particular is, in a weird way, perfectly suited to the task at hand. She’s got just the right acerbic wit combined with a tough as nails sensibility that she could effectively deal with whatever horrific vitriol the Right wing managed to throw at her. There is the issue of a sex tape released by a vengeful ex-boyfriend, but I would like to think in this bizarre political world we now live in that wouldn’t be held against her too much, at least by most voters.

Meanwhile, both Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert would be great candidates as well, but it’s highly unlikely that Stewart would leave his petting zoo in New Jersey or that Colbert would leave a successful late night talk show to run for president.

One thing we have to take seriously is how the Russians might try to meddle in the election again. The American political system is so fucked up in a structural way, that it’s very well possible they could throw the election to Trump AGAIN and nothing would happen. Trump really has a near mystical hold on his followers that is difficult to explain or break. It is very well possible that he will not only survive, but thrive and prosper in the coming days and that there really will be nothing to stop him from finishing two complete terms.

That, of course, would leave the issue of where will America be once he finally has to step down. I would, again, suggest that that will be settled by who his successor is. If Trump’s successor, after eight years in office, is another celebrity, then that would be a definitely different spin on things than if it was a career politician. At this point, it’s too early to tell which it will be. Right now, it seems as though Trump is going to plow his way through the American political system, doing as much damage as possible.

And, yet, if, say, someone like James Comey were to succeed Trump at some point in the future, the American Republic might bounce back a lot quicker than you might think. But that is being really optimistic. It is difficult for me to say in good faith that the United States is even a Republic at all anymore. We are careening towards a theocratic, autocratic plutocracy of sorts. No amount of leadership will fix such long term trends. Effective leadership might manage it, mitigate it or ameliorate it but it won’t eliminate it altogether.

Having said all that, I would also like to say that as an American, I have hope that American exceptionalism still burns in the hearts and minds of its citizens and we ultimately will reject the “managed democracy” of Russia. I’d like to think that at some point people power will kick in and we’ll take back our government from the kleptocracy that it’s succumb to for the time being. But I don’t know, I just don’t know. I can’t predict the future and it could go either way, it really could.

At this point, we’re just going to have to suffer the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune until November 2018. If the “Blue Wave” really does wash down on the shores of Washington, then we can talk. Then there is a real chance that this Trumpian nightmare will end sooner rather than later and we can put it behind us. But every day Trump is in office, we risk bigger and worse disasters.

A real chance exists that Trump will try to save his sorry ass politically by pulling the biggest “wag the dog” in American history by initiating a “preemptive war” against the DPRK. I could totally see him doing it by, say July 2018, so in about November 2018 his approval rating will be in the high 80s as TV and social media are awash with the spectacular images of the long-oppressed people of North Korea at last being liberated. We could all wake up in 2021 to a truly distopian future.

One fear I have is Trump is, really, the only thing keeping the United States away from a civil war. The peace of mind that Trump gives the insane Right wing may be a weird firebreak that we won’t realize we enjoy until it’s gone. The United States is, right now, effectively two different nations and it could tear itself apart if we don’t find some effective leadership in years ahead. But sometimes you don’t get leadership until there’s a reason for people to rise to the occasion, so who knows what will happen.