The issue is, if you don’t have the balls to impeach Trump now for wide range of criminal behavior, you give him a green light to do his worst as part of the 2020 Election.
I mean, really, if the House is so fucking reluctant to impeach Trump for a whole slew of criminal behavior, what’s to stop Trump from brazenly attacking individual Electors post-election 2020 should he lose. Remember, there are actual human beings who have to vote for president. Human beings are by definition flawed and subject to the whims of personality.
If Trump loses the popular vote and the Electoral College, what’s to stop him from sicking MAGA on individual Electors by doxxing them via Twitter? Or, really, what to stop some MAGA plutocrats from bribing Electors before the vote. Trump could simply pardon them and hunker down. It’s not like the Senate will impeach him for even that.
Once that’s been established, then one of two things happen. Either people give up voting altogether and we sink into a Russian-style managed democracy or there’s a revolt in Blue States. Of course, Trump would simply use such a revolt to abolish Blue State governments and turn them into military districts.
Then Trump names himself president for life. House Trump gets its thousand year Trump. A lot of creative people leave the States for various parts of the globe. America sinks into a MAGA dystopia. Colleges are either shut down or purged of anyone who doesn’t agree with the Dear Leader.
It’s over guys. We had a good run. I guess I’ll die in a Trump branded re-education camp at some point in the next 20 years.
I will give Democrats credit, they are about as bad at doing what should be done — impeaching Trump — as I am playing pool (which is very bad.)
So, it seems this is the “strategy” of the House Democratic leadership. They do just enough on the impeachment front that they can credibly tell the progressive base that they’re actually doing something on that front. But they’re moving so slow and in such a half-hearted fashion that they can also crediably assure the moderates that give them their majority that they’re actually going to let Trump “self impeach.” Which, of course, means they expect Trump not to win re-election.
The similarities between the political clusterfuck Americans find themselves in with that of the British are pretty startling. In both instances systemic, existential problems — largely based on lies and racism — and destroying what were otherwise previously pretty stable democracies.
In fact, I believe the 2020 election is going to be America’s Brexit. And, sad to say, it will be even more self-inflicted than Brexit itself. In other words, Trump isn’t going anywhere. So the thought that he will “self-impeach” is bullshit on the face of it.
While I struggle to figure out why House Democrats are so reluctant to impeach Trump, I think it boils down to two things. One, they know that no matter what they prove, Trump will never be convicted in the Senate. Second, they’re afraid that a sizable portion of their caucus will be put in jeopardy by impeaching Trump in the first place. These are the moderate members of the Democratic House caucus who in previous years would have been represented by Republicans. But that, of course, was before the Republicans were eaten by MAGA and given a huge amount of power through gerrymandering.
But back to the issue at hand — impeachment. I have come to believe there’s only one of two ways Trump ever gets impeached. Either the sheer magnitude of Trump’s impeachable offenses makes it impossible for the House not to do it sooner rather than later or we wait until well into Trump’s second term when he is so brazen that something, at last, has to be done.
Of course, a side possibility is Trump’s mental instability finally reaches such a critical mass that we have something along the lines of a political 9/11 on our hands and the investigation into Trump’s criminality can be counted in days, not weeks or months.
And, yet, really, as I keep saying, populist autocracy never loses. There’s really nothing to be done. Maybe the economy slows down in a few months to such an extent that Trump’s popularity reaches the teens. But by that point it will all be moot and Trump will win reelection through doxing individual Electors or whatever.
At this point, I think Trump could nuke us all to hell and there would be a subterranean MAGA death cult that would prosper long after all of us are vaporized.
The House Democratic leadership is an embarrassment. They are so busy thinking about saving their majority that they are failing the needs of the country. Of course the Senate will acquit Trump if the House impeaches him, but so what. It sure would be nice to see Trump’s many crimes articulated on the floor of the Senate by year’s end.
But, of course, this is not going to happen. By the time we get anywhere near impeaching Trump, it’ll be 2020. The 2020 political cycle will be in full force and that, as they say, will be that. Even though there is precedent for impeaching a president during an election year — see also Andrew Johnson — it’s not really all that realistic in the modern age.
Having said all that, there are two scenarios whereby Trump could still manage to be impeached.
The first possibility — and by far the least likely — is despite the best efforts of Democratic House leaders, events kind of get out of their control in the next few weeks. This could happen any number of different ways. I have long thought that the sheer magnitude of Trump’s crimes against the Constitution would make it extremely difficult for the House not to impeach him. There could come a point when the crimes are so extreme that the House impeaches Trump despite itself in a pretty spectacular fashion.
This could happen because of explosive testimony. This could happen because Trump’s mental state finally reaches a point where even the most jaded observer begins to worry.
If nothing like that happens, however, Trump’s safe. He’ll coast through the 2020 election cycle. And no matter what happens, he will win the general election in some fashion because, well, he’s a populist autocrat and they never, never, NEVER lose. It doesn’t matter how he wins, he will win.
Now, once Trump wins — however he does it — there will be a long lull while we process what has just happened. Trump will consolidate power in a broad, deep fashion. He’ll act like King Lear as Don Jr. and Ivanka fight for the inheritance. He’s likely to name them both to very important roles in the administration so they both have equal footing. There’s still a good chance he will name Ivanka his veep in 2020.
But if there’s one concrete rule about Trump, is he’s criminally incompetent in the role of president. So while in effect winning re-election will pardon him for everything he’s done up til then, he’s bound to screw up in some major, existential fashion during the early part of his second term. He’ll screw up so bad that there will again be talk of impeaching him. (Note, of course, that if Republicans regain the House in 2020 that there will be little difference between the United States and Russia at that point.)
And remember, Nixon won a huge landslide in 1972. Historic. Epic. And he was still out of office by August 1974.
A different political calculus will exist in a second term as well. Trump will have topped off the Federal bench with young MAGA hacks more interested in owning the libs than doing their jobs. And it sure would be nice for Republicans to have an incumbent in place who could run in 2024 and 2028. As such, the case could be made that Trump might name Ivanka (or Don Jr. ) his veep during the 2020 campaign. What Trump might initially do simply because he’s trying to name a family successor for 2024 might actually lead to the likelihood of him being convicted in the Senate at some point during his second term.
While I wish the whole Thousand Year Trump idea was bullshit, sadly, it’s not. America is no longer a democracy. House Trump is an avatar for the existential failings of our republic. They are probably rule the country for at least 20 years until the youngest of the Baby Boomers die off and the browning of America beings to kick in.
If the United States hasn’t had a civil war with WMD involved by that point, we’ll be a mixture of Apartheid South Africa and modern day Venezuela. We’ll be a failed state with a-bombs.
If you look closely at how, exactly, the Roman Republic became the Roman Empire, the parallels with modern America are striking. The thing about the early Roman Empire, as I understand it, is that many of the traditions of the the Republic lingered for generations.
That’s what’s happening with America now. Trump in his own corrupt, incompetent manner, is serving as something of an American Caesar. He’s pushing us from a republic into a de facto empire with ruling families and no democracy.
So apparently Ivanka and Don Jr. are fighting out behind the scenes as to who will succeed their father. The solution to their fighting would be, of course, for Don Jr. to be run for president and to pick Ivanka as his veep. Or vise-versa. And that would be how House Trump would rule the country for the next 20-odd years until the youngest of the Baby Boomers croke and the browning of America reaches a tipping point. (Or Blue States get fed up and leave the Union altogether. Or there’s a military junta installed with someone like Gen. Mattis as Lord Protector.)
Now, I honestly don’t see anything stopping this scenario from happening. If it’s not craven plutocrats, it’s Russians, if it’s not ammosexuals, it’s Evangelicals. There are simply way too many powerful groups with a vested interest in House Trump ruling the country for as long as they can absolutely do so.
I honestly don’t have any hope. House Trump is an avatar for the demise of the American Republic. Or put another way, Trump has served his purpose. He’s ended the America I grew up with. It will be Don. Jr or Ivanka who simply build on what he’s created. There is no hope. It’s over.
But having said that, just to entertain myself, let’s think of what might go wrong for House Trump. First and foremost, they’re growing arrogant. They have grown accustomed to getting whatever they want. So they’re beginning to talk pretty openly about the existence of House Trump. They think that they’re safe. They see it as FUD. They want to browbeat what little opposition they have into accepting their rise to the imperial throne. Much like the Romans of 2,000 years ago, however, Americans aren’t too fond of royalty. So there is at least a small possibility — maybe 1% at this point — that there is pride before the fall.
But I would say it’s far more likely that the country simply splits in two, with House Trump getting Red States and the American Republic continuing in Blue States. In a way, it would be similar to the Western and Eastern Roman Empires.
The more I think about the country splitting up, the more I struggle with how, exactly, it would take place. It’s difficult to see Blue Washington D.C. staying in the Red Rump USA. That fact alone assures there would be bloodshed. Maybe a lot more than we could possible imagine. And I really, really don’t want that. Or House Trump will simply abolish Blue State governments and rule them as military districts. They’ll weaponize ICE and the camps and throw anyone who opposes them into them. Lulz!
One thing is for sure — the American experiment in republican rule is over. The problems are too existential to be fixed. It may take a few decades, but we’ll be just like Russia and it’s “manage democracy” soon enough. I would say things will accelerate in Trump’s second term.
Once Don Jr. or Ivana becomes president, it’s all a moot point.
I wish there was something I could think up that might prevent this slide into dystopia, but I can’t.
It’s such a struggle for me to imagine a post-Trump America because, well, I don’t see there end to any of this. If it’s not Trump, it’s Don Jr. or Ivanka or some other dipshit in that malignant family. America as we knew it is over.
But, just for fun, let’s mull what America after Trump might look like.
I think the key thing we have to understand is that House Trump isn’t going anywhere. As long as Trump is alive, he’s going to dominate the news and do everything in his power to ruin everything. So, in a sense, he’s now just a modern problem we have to deal with.
Also, whenever Trump should finally leave office, he’s probably going to pardon 50 people as soon as it’s obvious he might actually obey the law for once. Another thing — the dregs of Republican politics who have been running the country the last few years aren’t going anywhere. Trump has made a lot of careers and the connections they’ve made because of their connection to him aren’t going anywhere. They will continue to leech off the American people one way or another as long as their alive.
And the moment Trump somehow is magically not in office, Don Jr or Ivanka will start to run for president. They’re like herpes. The whole clan is going to be a chronic medical issue in American politics that simply will never, ever go away. In fact, the only way they will ever leave is if there’s a civil war and the Blue States successfully leave the Union. Then they’ll feast off the rotting carcass of the rump United States, whatever it may look like.
I’m feeling kind of sad for my country right now. But this is a macro issue. Usually the only way to solve a problem this bad in a nation’s politics is for there to be a war. But hopefully that won’t happen. I do see the bad guys winning for the next few decades until the browning of America finally reaching a tipping point.
Of course, much like Apartheid South Africa, MAGA and House Trump are likely to simply govern as minority for decades after they should leave.
For me, the issue that MAGA completely misses about Trump is his ability to self-own on a staggering level. The source of all this self-owning is that he is not only criminally incompetent at his job, but he’s slowly losing his mind.
So, yes, buying Greenland kinda, sorta makes sense. But to go about it in the erratic manner Trump did is shameful in the extreme. If you’re going to do something like buy Greenland, you need to prep the public first. You need to lay the groundwork for it.
The same thing with meeting with the Taliban. There was a way for him to do it and get honest praise for it. But it would have taken as much as a year’s worth of prep work to get to that point. But Trump’s criminally lazy, too, and no one worth anything will work for him. So we get him blurting out having them come to Camp David the week of the annual 9/11 memorial services.
At the core of this, of course, is Trump has degenerative brain rot. We’re not in a crisis — yet. I’m feeling a bit pessimistic about the Trump endgame, too. There is no bottom.
If ever there was a time for WarnerMedia to tap into the national mood with something really cool, it’s now. Unlike Disney, WarnerMedia has some pretty potent Legacy Brand cartoon IP to play with.
I’m speaking, of course, of Looney Tunes. And I’m not talking about the upcoming Space Jam movie. I’m talking about rebooting Looney Tunes to make them what they used to be — cartoons for parents of the Greatest Generation who had to sit through them as shorts to watch, like, Gone With The Wind and stuff.
What better stand-in for Trump than Foghorn Leghorn. Wouldn’t it be great to have Bugs get to sass Foghorn Leghorn in a new adventure? It could be quite cathartic. If ever there was a built-in Hero made for the Age of Trump, it’s Bugs Bunny.
I don’t see this happening, however. The suits wouldn’t want to offend people or turn Bugs into some sort of symbol of the Resistance. Legacy Brands rarely get the update they deserve.
Election 2020 is going to be the American version of Brexit. In every potential outcome I can think of, America will face a political clusterfuck not seen since 1860.
If Trump wins, he’ll dramatically consolidate power. We really will have the “Thousand Year Trump” that evil MAGA goon Brad Parscale keeps talking about. Of course Trump will overreach, going after free speech and the right to assembly. That will cause a response in the Blue States. By about June of 2021, we’ll be openly talking about either secession or Trump using the military to abolish the Blue State governments.
If Trump loses, it’s worse. Trump will claim it’s all a fraud. He will fight it in the courts. The courts are largely full of young, partisan MAGA hacks. They will side with him, no matter what. If that doesn’t work, he’ll dox individual Electors on Twitter. Republican dark money donors will bribe Electors. All he needs is just enough electors to go rogue that the election is thrown into the House where each delegation gets one vote. Trump “wins.” Trump “wins.” Trump “wins.” Trump “wins.” We’ll try to impeach Trump AGAIN, this time for fraudulently gaining the White House in an extremely brazen way, but he’ll be acquitted in the Senate.
What’s most, as all of this happens, Trump’s mental faculties will continue to deteriorate. He’ll be little more than a puddle. But he’s the avatar for existential problems in American society, so it won’t matter.
Throw in the likelihood that Russians will hack the election anyway, and the whole outcome is likely to be the subject of controversy that lasts for months after the election. The MAGA hack judges will always side with House Trump, so that only increases the odds Trump will “win.”
All of this will happen even if we’re in a Second Great Recession. America will be little more than Venezuela at this point. Don Jr. or Ivanka will be anointed Trump’s successor in 2024 and the process starts all over again.
Really, at this point, our best case scenarios are either a junta takes over or Blue States are allowed to leave the Union peacefully. Maybe some sort of EU-type situation is setup.
Trump’s evil goon of a campaign manager Brad Parscale is touting to the Republican Party faithful the idea that Trump is an American Cesar. He is the founding member of a political dynasty that will last “decades.”
Before I address this, I think Parscale is engaging in what Microsoft used to do to the software industry: FUD — fear and utter despair. As it stands, there’s a grain of truth to what he’s saying. Trump is an avatar for dark forces in the American politics. At this point, there honestly isn’t any reason not to think the Trump family is now a Royal House. They will governor us for the foreseeable future.
I don’t really have any hope that this is not the case. But there are a few things going on that might at least make it a little bit more difficult than Parscale might have us believe. One is Trump himself is obviously mentally sundowning. Also, there are a number of reasons to believe the American economy is beginning to slow down. Throw in the prospect of No Deal Brexit and that flaw in Pax Trumplandia grows more significant.
As such, one’s historical attention turns to Washington’s Ur scandal, Watergate. Nixon had half a dozen Parscale-type goons in his orbit and he still manage to resign in disgrace. Not that I think Trump’s going anywhere. The existential, tragic flaws in the American psyche he represents are too deep and systemic for him to leave office any time before Jan. 20th, 2025. Really, Trump could probably directly lead to the end of mankind and Parscale would simply hold up in the Federal Government’s Doomsday Bunker and that would be that.
I don’t really have any hope. The reason why I don’t have much hope is Trump could become a puddle on the Oval Office floor and MAGA would still vote for him. All I got when it comes to hope is time. House Trump could probably rule for 20 years until the youngest of the Baby Boomers croak. Then the browning of America kicks in and the American political system will resemble a mashup of Apartheid South Africa and modern day Venezuela. That will last until, I don’t know what.
Scrounging for some semblance of hope, all I got is Trump is such a historically bad president that no amount of FUD from Parscale can fix that. And history is unpredictable. I guess, in a sense, all I got is what might eventually overthrow House Trump might be a military junta. But even that is problematic. Maybe Blue States might attempt to secede from the Union en masse at some point in the next 20 years, maybe not.
But I again go back to what happened with Nixon. If we were having this discussion in 1971, we would still have Nixon’s 1972 landslide ahead of us. I think Trump is the primordial goo from which an Imperial American will arise. But it will hone very close to what literally happen to the Roman Republic. Roman only gradually shed the trappings of a republic. It did not happen overnight and the Empire never had a traditional Royal House like modern monarchies. We may continue to superficially be a republic, but in practice will just go from one member of the Trump family to another because the center-Left is still playing by the old rules.
I struggle to think of some reason why Parscale isn’t right. All I got is he’s right on a macro level, but the history is quirky and sometimes goes off in strange directions. And like I said, he probably is right for 20 years. So his prediction of “decades” is right. But the ability for House Trump to stay in power after the Baby Boomers dying off grows significantly more difficult. House Trump just doesn’t have demographics on its side beyond 20 years from now.
I believe with 200% certainty that Donald Trump will have a second term. Whatever you think the worst case scenario with Trump might be, we’re going to see that and worse. At this point, it’s really just a matter of decree. Will Trump declare himself president for life? Will he abolish the House? Will he actively work to degrade norms and laws to such an extent that any president who isn’t MAGA at some point in the future is not seen as legitimate and is completely neutered?
Or put another way — it’s growing pretty apparent that America is hurdling towards some mish-mash of Apartheid South Africa and modern day Venezuela. America is going to a third world country with an obscene amount of WMD. Or, put another way, the 1% will prosper and everyone else will sink into poverty, sickness and ignorance.
I say all this because Trump is an avatar for systemic, existential problems in American society and governing. Eliminate Trump as political force and someone else will pop up to fill the need. A series of groups who follow the “new rules” system of politics will do everything in their power to make sure Trump gets a second term. They will break laws, they will lie with abandon, they will hack the election, you name is. Whatever they have to do see a second term, they will do.
And the so-called “Resistance” is so busy with identity politics that they’re going to let it happen from sheer incompetence, if nothing else. The worse part of all of this is it couldn’t be avoided. People might bitch and moan about how if only Hillary Clinton had won in 2016 all of this might have been avoided, but they’re deluding themselves. The racism of the Obama Era would have become the misogyny of the Hillary Clinton Era. Trump or someone like him would have run in 2020 and won.
I honestly don’t know what can be done at this point. When one of the two major parties fundamentally is not operating in good faith and is wilful in its refusal to accept any fact that hurts them, then, well, that’s it. It’s over.
What’s worse is, ultimately, I think, either the Blue States bolt from the Union at some point in the next 20 years or some successor to Trump will abolish them altogether. Blue States will be run by MAGA appointed governments. In fact, the best case scenario is the military will step in and rule via a junta. That’s the best case scenario.
People who get too wrapped up in Trump miss the point — Trump just fills a function. It could be anybody like Trump. In fact, if you wanted make yourself feel better, you could say in a way Trump’s criminal incompetence has actually slowed the inevitable progression into tyranny. In his second term, Trump’s mental deterioration will only increase. So it might be a little bit more difficult for him to full-fill is despotic dreams.
But at some point after, say, 2025, someone younger and more focused will do what Trump could not do. I would say it will probably be some sort of wide-spread civil disturbance in Blue States that will be the excuse. Or a major terrorist attack. Only Red States will be allowed to have any form of functioning democracy and even then it will be strictly monitored and controlled.
There’s no turning back. Nothing we can do other than vote. I’d like to think freedom of speech might linger long enough for me to die before it’s completely extinguished, but I’m probably fooling myself.
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