SNL serves the same purpose that the old Thomas Nast cartoons of the 19th Century did. How it portrays someone gives us a sense of how liberals in New York City view political figures.
As such, I think it’s time for SNL to find someone new to play Trump. Just in the last few months, since SNL went on summer hiatus, the perception of Trump has changed. Trump has gone from a criminal buffoon to someone who is sufficiently mentally unstable to garner serious concern.
Who would be good to play Trump? I don’t know. But I might suggest they think back to Chevy Chase’s portrayal of Ford. He didn’t look anything like Ford nor did he try to. But he got the point across.
So, I dunno. I think they need to pull someone unexpected out. Someone who heightens the erratic deranged aspect of Trump’s personality.
The funny thing about Trump is he’s yet to face an external crisis. All his existential issues have been self-caused. He keeps shooting himself in the foot, in other words.
His latest self-own is his own sanity. Any other president would have the Mueller Report behind him and he would be safe to cruise into a second term. But this is Trump we’re talking about. So of course people would finally begin to notice that Trump is obviously not well mentally. So, let’s imagine the absolute worst case scenario for Trump. Let’s see what might happen.
The scenario begins with Trump having a formal press conference with some head of state sometime in his second term. Let’s say it’s August 2023. He’s ruined the economy, we’re a near politice state and the camps are in full force. In real terms, the only aspect of the old America we know is the free press. Or freedom of speech, at least. Otherwise, Trump’s vision of America is complete. Plutocrats run the country while the poor are sick and pay all the taxes the the rich feel is theft.
So there Trump is, talking, when he just out of the blue whips his dick out and starts to stroke it furiously. Right there, on TV in the middle of the afternoon. He finishes himself off and continues the press conference as if nothing has happen.
Now, I believe absolutely nothing would happen in the long term. There would be shock for about 24 hours, but then the Republican talking points would pop up. No one there saw it happen — even though CNN and MSNBC reporters keep talking about it. It’s a “deep fake” is what the talking points would say. Or whatever. There’s simply no way Trump would face any consequences. None. Zero.
That’s it guys. That’s our fate. And if Trump did finally face an crisis not of his own making, he would use it to suspend the Constitution and rule as a dictator. All of this is because Trump is an avatar for some deep and dark existential problems in modern America. It’s not like he’s going to lose re-election. And Tom Cotton will likely win in 2024.
I guess the point of this is I need some hope. Something concrete has to happen to give me some indication that for once the bad guys won’t win. I don’t see that happening. I think I’ll just keep working on my novel. That makes me feel better.
While I would be overjoyed if House Democrats finally pull their thumbs out of their asses and impeached Trump, my elation would come with some qualifications. The issue is, Trump is an avatar for an existential problem in America that is not going away anytime soon. In fact, I would propose it won’t fade until about 20 years from now when the youngest of the Baby Boomers die off just around the time we reach a tipping point with the browning of America.
Though impeaching Trump makes a lot of sense on an abstract level, actually doing it is problematic. Again, I’m not saying we shouldn’t do it — we should. I’m just pointing out that doing it — even successfully — won’t be the panacea too many people on Twitter seem to think it would be. First and foremost, it is likely to fail. So Trump could run as having been “vindicated” the moment he’s acquitted by the Senate. What’s worse, even if impeaching Trump was somewho, miraculously successful, that would mean Pence would have not one, but two opportunities to run for president as an incumbent.
But this raises another issue — Trump is such a horrible person and president the issue of impeachment may eventually be out of all of our hands. I could see more than one scenario where Trump’s mental state grows so dangerous — like 9/11 crisis dangerous — that things fall apart for Trump not in months or weeks but days. In fact, in a sense, that’s the only way impeachment makes any sense to me at this point — to fix a specific crisis. Trump has such a lock on the minds of about 35% of the electorate that while we should impeach him, we should also manage our expectations as to what it will accomplish.
And, yet, really, long term we have to accept that given that Trump is no more than an avatar for a deep existential problem with the United States that there is, in fact, no bottom as to how far things are likely to go. If Federal elections don’t become perfunctory, then there will be active hacking by the Russians. If that doesn’t work, then MAGA will intimidate and bribe individual electors. ICE will be weaponized and the existing camps will be filled not with asylum seekers, but with anyone who has the temerity to challenge the the will of The Leader. I wish this was being hysterical, but it’s not. This is a real possibility. We could go full Russian manage democracy in brief few years. Like, less than five.
I wish I could tell you there was some solution. There’s none. Short term, I would suggest that the Left adopt the “new rules” that the Right is so fond of. We go eyeball-to-eyeball with them every political chance we can get. If that means the government grinds to down to a Singularity, so be it. And, really, at this point there are no good endgames. Here are some possibilities.
Junta It’s possible that the only thing that will keep America together is the military. This is so alien to the American tradition that things would really, really have to get bad. But the military is the lone institution that commands the respect of the general populace, so it may be the only thing that keeps the country together long term.
“Wayward Sisters, Part In Peace” In this scenario, there is a peaceful division of the country alone political lines on a state level. At best, we have some sort of economic union. At worse, the two sides will hate each other at this point that not even that will happen. The real fight will be over which country gets the US “brand.” Otherwise, the Red States will descend into a third world status while the Blue States will continue to grow and prosper.
The Apocalyptic Rock Fight In this scenario, the division of the country gets out of hand. The two sides begin to drop a-bombs on each other until the entire country in ruin. Eventually one side will graduate to h-bombs and things will really get interesting. I only even suggest this possibility because MAGA is a manifestation of a cancer on the American psyche that is so dark, so depraved that is may swerve into such a bloodlust that, well, there’s no turning back.
Apartheid Era South Africa Meets Modern Venezuela Meets Reconstruction America In this scenario, we have sort of a dystopian middle ground. Even though the brown of America has happened, white America clings to economic and political power with a death grip. Meanwhile, because of gross corruption, America is finally a third world country with nukes. We’re alone and scared on the world stage. Large swaths of the populace feel completely disenfranchised. Only the poor pay taxes and the rights of women and minorities are harshly repressed. What’s more Blue States are now little more than military districts without any formal representation in Congress.
And, so, that’s it. Those all the endgames I can think of. None of them make me feel good, none of them I want. But the more I think about it, the more it seems there are a few fundimental flaws in the Constitution. Among them the Electoral College and the Senate. But the Senate is so fundamental to the American system that I think that, in itself, means America will soon be a failed state in all but name. In a sense it already is and we’re just deluding ourselves.
In real terms, I guess all we can do is stay aware of what’s happen and try to, on an individual level, make or corner of America a better place. America is over. The end.
Whatever is wrong with Donald Trump is getting worse. And, yet, because of a combination of the Overton Window and the cult of personality associated with Trump, I don’t see any end game that involves Trump leaving office any time before Jan. 20th, 2025.
But we are definitely in a new era when it comes to the Trump Administration. When Trump looked up at the sun and called himself “The chosen one,” that brought the issue of his mental health to the forefront. The reason why the Muller Report freaked MAGA out so much was it was something they could not easily dismiss. Mueller was widely seen as an objective third party and had he done what we all believed he would do — indict the president or his son — they would face a real existential crisis.
That obviously did not happen. And, so, if it was anyone else in Trump’s position, they could shore up power and cruise into a second term of gutting the “administrative state,” bankrupting the nation and ruining the environment in peace. But now that Trump is slowly creeping towards being demonstrably mentally unwell, MAGA thought leaders again find themselves with a topic they would rather not talk about. Because they actually LIKE the cruel un-American policies of the Trump Administration, arguing with them about them is a moot point. In large part because they’re fucking racists, it’s not like you’re going to change their minds.
So what we all thought Mueller would do to Trump, Trump may do to himself. We aren’t there yet, but we’re slowly edging towards a situation where everyone is talking about how bonkers Trump is except for MAGA talking heads. Why Trump’s deteriorating mental state is so dangerous to the MAGA cause is as of right now, no one seems to be ready to step in an establish a Regency, even in private. So there’s a chance that there never will be one and Trump could, in fact, conspicuously lose his mind in some manner and the nation would have no recourse. Too many powerful, wealthy people have a vested interest in Trump staying president — even in an incapacitated way — and as such they will do everything in their power to keep him right where he is.
Really, the only thing that has subtly changed is it’s far more difficult for people to say they take Trump “seriously, but no literally.” I would compare Trump looking up at the sun and calling himself “The chosen one” as similar to when Jimmy Carter gave his famous “malaise” speech. That changed the mood of the country and set the stage for the Reagan Revolution.
We are now slowly reaching a crisis point. The crisis could be something like this: Trump finally loses his mind and instead of impeaching him over being a criminal and traitor, the House impeaches him over his tweets. This would give them plenty of opportunities to have shrinks testify that Trump is a threat to the country and should be removed. Things get a little surreal at this point in that if Trump really goes off the deep end, there’s a greater than zero chance that the Senate might actually convict him. The only reason this might happen is because it would position Pence to run not once, but twice for president. And so, there’s a least a chance that Trump will live to fight another day even though he’s completely bonkers. Republicans will continue to support him no matter what while Democrats will continue to delude themselves that he will “self-impeach.”
So, having said all that, for what I propose to happen, there would have to be a crisis. It would have to happen really quick and in a conspicuous manner. His ultimate downfall would be in days, not weeks or months. The entire country would have to be in shock at how bad things had gotten. It would have to be 9/11 levels of crisis. Otherwise, nothing happens. Trump coasts into a second term and we have four years of a very ineffective Regency. If it takes too long to fix, Trump can simply start a war with Iran and by the time we get around to remembering Trump being insane he has set the stage for someone like Tom Cotton to take over in 2025.
The reason I say all of this is Trump is an avatar for systemic cancer in American society. An alliance of plutocrats, Russians, misogynists evangelicals, gun nuts, racists and morons have an absolute interest in things staying just the way they are, no matter what. Even if the economy tanks, the Russians will hack the election, or Trump will bribe or bully individual Electors. And then there will be no political will to do anything about it, just like there’s no political will to do anything about Trump now.
It’s a great tragedy that the only if the president completely loses his mind in a spectator fashion will there even be a hint of the political will to get rid of him. And then that sets up Pence being president for over eight years and things just go from bad to worse.
I don’t know what to tell you folks. I guess turn out the light, the party’s over.
I hate to break it to House Democrats, but there’s no political will to do anything about Trump being a criminal, possibly treasonous president. We’ve moved on. It’s baked into the cake, as they say.
Having said that, if you really want to give Trump the black stain of impeachment, don’t go after the complex stuff that can’t be fit into a tweet. Go after his tweeting.
Now, him Tweeting is not, in itself, a crime. But what he has done over the last few years via tweet is. We’ve had witness tampering and intimidation. We’ve seeing a great lowering of respect for the office he holds. We’ve seen any number of other things that at least rise to the level of “misdemeanor” in a Constitutional sense. Add to this that two of the last three presidents — at least — who got impeached were charged with things they said in speeches or the ill repute they brought on the office and, well, there you go.
I’m not saying don’t look into the wide-range of criminal things Trump’s done that could lead to is impeachment. Go for it. But I am saying going after his tweeting gives House investigators something really, really compelling to show on TV: psychiatrists under oath saying they think the president’s nuts.
But there are some conditions to this proposal. One, things have to get worse. So much worse that it’s difficult for Trump to simply tell his cult followers that he was “joking.” The economy would also have to begin to slow noticeably. Lastly, and this is the crazy part, there would have to be a white-knuckled political calculation on the part of Republican leadership that they could actually have a better shot of winning the White House again with Pence instead of Trump. If you don’t have that last piece, then, well, all of this would, in fact, hurt Trump politically. But there’s a decent shot (greater than 50/50) that he will win re-election somehow. I say this because in general populist autocrats don’t lose.
Another key point is a lot of people who support Trump don’t support his manic tweeting. So that would at least give House leaders some cover politically. It’s a lot less likely that they would face the same fate as the Republicans who impeached Bill Clinton. Though, it must be noted, the after affects of that impeachment lead directly to Gore not being able to win decisively in 2000.
Do I think this will happen? Not right now. Things could go either way right now. Either Trump continues to hold on to just enough sanity that he is able to function — at least in public — or he slides into far more dangerous territory and what I propose begins to make a lot more sense.
Mental health is rather mysterious at times. That’s what makes it so troubling. People can seem normal then begin to act extremely erratic. In fiction, the character of Howard Beale in Network is a prime example of how this can feel to others.
So, with Trump, I just don’t know. That’s the thing about whatever is wrong with him. He can go long stretches of time seeming reasonably normal and then he does batshit insane things like look up at the sun while saying he’s “the chosen one.” That CNN is talking about Trump “blowing up” the G7 meeting this weekend at all is a testament to how bad things have gotten.
The thing I struggle with is how a real Trump mental health crisis might occur. There’s a real chance that he might just slowly grow worse in such a manner that the Overton Window kicks in and we’ll just drift into a Trump second term. We’ll just be so accustomed to him being batshit insane that by 2023 he’ll be barely functioning and we’ll just shrug it off.
But that assumes the economy is going to continue to do well. If the economy tanks in a meaningful way, we may lurch forward in the severity of his bonkers behavior. If that happens, I think there may be calls to use the existing momentum for impeachment to impeach him not for being a fucking criminal — which he is — but for the all the tweeting. Now, I only even suggest that Trump might be impeached for bizarre tweeting because apparently both Andrew Johnson and Richmond Nixon had articles of impeachment that dealt with such stuff. Johnson got in trouble for some speeches, while Nixon got in trouble for a moral general “bringing the office of president into disrepute.” (As I recall.)
This is all important because there’s a real chance that should we ever get around to actually having an impeachment inquiry the people we’ll be hearing from is psychiatrists not the usual suspects in such matters. But all of this requires a series of things to happen for us to get to that point. His crackup has to be public. The economy has to tank. And whatever behavior he’s exhibiting has to be so severe that it’s difficult for MAGA talking heads to explain it away. If those three things don’t happen, lulz.
And, really, the crucial point is Pence. There’s a reason why Pence has all but ghosted the country. My guess is he feels not only does he think he may have to mop up a post-Trump America, but he wants to leverage the general relief on the part of the country to win a full term of his own. Only after he’s won the presidency in his own right can he turn around and be the big old dick that he really is in peace.
But let me stress, we’re no where near the type of crisis we would have to be for this to happen. We’re drifting towards it, but we have a ways to go. It could be six months from now before it happens, or it could be well into his dystopian second term. All I know is how we frame Trump has changed subtly in the last few days.
It used to be the Mueller Report, now it’s if and when Trump goes completely bonkers.
The reason it’s so difficult to reason with MAGA is they really, really, REALLY like Trump’s policies. Add to that a basic difference in values, and debating with them about kids in cages or unnecessary tax cuts or whatever is kind of a moot point.
That’s the reason why Republicans were so nervous about the Mueller investigation. For a few months there, they were kinda freaking out that Mueller might find some “light treason” on the part of Trump. When that threat evaporated they let out a high sigh of relief and went back to counting young conservative Federal judges and tax cuts.
And, really, here’s the rub. If it weren’t for what has happened in the last few days, they could pretty comfortable that Trump would be re-elected. They could sit back enjoy the corruption and graft without a care in the world.
Then Trump started to show signs of losing his mind.
Now instead of light treason to worry about, they have to spin the president acting rather erratically. Trump has always acted erratically, but now it’s reached a tipping point of sorts. People are taking another look at Trump’s words. No longer is to be dismissed. People of all political stripes are honestly beginning to grow worried that Trump is losing his mind.
And so MAGA simply doesn’t say anything. Rich MAGA gets tax cuts and poor MAGA gets young hack conservative Federal judges. If they’re not talking about policy but Trump’s conspicuous and erratic behavior they really don’t have much to say.
Now being bonkers is not, in itself a “high crime or misdemeanor.” But what you do as a result of being bonkers can be. As I have said before, it would not surprise me that should we actually get around to an impeachment inquiry that there may come a point when the House is talking to shrinks about the president’s state of mind. The president’s erracting Tweeting could itself be one of the articles of impeachment.
But having said all that, Trump is an avatar for systemic problems in the American political system. As such, I honestly believe Trump could rip off all his clothes and screaming and naked in front of the White House and we would not convict him in the Senate.
So, really, I think it’s more a matter of what sort of Regency is established more than anything else. We’ve had one before with Edith Wilson ran the country for her husband Woodrow Wilson after he had a stroke. That was very private — and the one for Trump may very well be as well. If Trump finally lost it, he would have to do it in a manner that was televised or it didn’t happen.
It should be noted that if you wanted to get white knuckled in your political calculations there may come a point in the next few months if Trump does need a Regency that Republicans may decide that Pence has a much better chance of winning re-election than Trump does. And given how the Constitution is written, he would have the opportunity run for re-election AGAIN in 2024.
As you may know, the A-bombs used on Japan in 1945 were initially thought up in an effort to stop Germany. So, as we march towards what appears to be a rather useless attempt to impeach Trump there’s something we need to keep in mind — what if in the end it’s not Trump obstructing justice that gets him, but him having lost his mind?
Now, let me qualify that statement. The more one thinks about it, the more one realizes that a very specific set of circumstances brought down Nixon. One was the economy tanked. The other was — as I understand it — Nixon was having health problems that prevented him from simply burning the tapes on the front lawn of the White House and serving out his term.
So, for the whole bonkers thing to sink Trump in any meaningful manner, something similar would have to happen.
Trump would have to lose it publically If Trump were to go King George III on us in private, we likely would never know. Someone would take over tweeting for him. His Regency would manage to prop him up every once in a while for public appearances and we would never know until long after he was out of office. So the first step is he has to go nuts publically in a conspicuous fashion. He’s edging towards that now. But if he finally goes off the deep end it has to be in a way that is public. Otherwise, nothing matters, lulz.
The Economy Would Have To Tank For there to be any chance that Trump would leave office other than Jan. 20th 2025, the economy would have to tank in a meaningful manner. I don’t want this to happen, but it has to happen if Trump is to ever leave office. One way we might find ourselves in a crisis is if Trump tweets the stock market into crashing and there’s no way to deny that he, specifically is responsible for it happening.
The GOP Would Have To Ditch Trump This is never going to happen. Trump could start WWIII via a tweet, and they would still support Trump. But there is a greater than zero chance that Republican Elders might see the 2020 election coming and in a white knuckled political move decided to ditch Trump for Pence. Pence is a conservative darling and actually cogent. I just don’t see this happening. But if things got very, very, very bad, it’s at least possible they might begin to think about it.
The great conundrum of all of this is we’re virtually in an election year. So for every one step we get closer to getting rid of Trump, there would be a huge amount of talk about just letting him serve out his term and waiting for him to “self impeach.” I think this is bullshit for a lot of reasons. Chief among being populist autocrats don’t lose.
Put another way, I think in the end Trump has a better chance of being removed not for being a criminal, but for being nuts.
The first era of the Trump Administration was the period of time between the firing of James Comey and Mueller’s testimony before Congress. If Trump was not completely unqualified either in temperament or managerial abilities he probably would coast to an an easy re-election. He would simply be the precursor to his inevitable younger, more focused fascist successor.
And, yet, the recent 35 minute press conference where he rambled about American Jews not being loyal and said he was “The Chosen One” is a new era for him and his administration. Now that we’re not thinking about Mueller bringing Trump down, it’s beginning to sink in that Trump is not well mentally.
It’s only going to get worse, too.
At this point, the issue is does Trump lose it publicly or privately. If he loses it privately, we probably will never know that he’s catatonic in his bed. All his tweets will be written by someone pretending to be him. And the powerful people who crave his sweet, sweet authoritarian rule will figure out a way to fake him actually being cognizant. Only long after his second term is over will we learn that it was all a lie and Trump lost his mind.
That’s kind of the best case scenario for the Russians and MAGA plutocrats who want to drive America into a ditch and shit all over it. If Trump is giving a speech and he goes Howard Beale on us, that would be a different matter altogether. For a president to go completely bonkers is not something any of us is prepared for. It would cause a 9/11 level of crisis in the American government.
The crux of the issue is our best bet is some sort of informal Regency would be created. It’s not like we’re ever going to get rid of Trump, so he could quite literally go batshit insane on live TV and nothing of note would happen to him. There just isn’t the political will and America is just too divided.
That’s all I got, folks. But maybe this worst case scenario won’t happen. Maybe Trump will just be somewhat addled for the next few years. Maybe he’ll go the Reagan route and finish up his term, get to pick his successor and America will finally be a true fascist state.
The Iran-contra scandal hit me at just the right time growing up. It was the first big political event of my life and I read as much as I could about it. The thing about Ronald Reagan at the time of Iran-contra was there were two problems. One problem was that as the son of an alcoholic, Reagan hated conflict with a passion. The other problem was he was really old and his mental faculties were deteriorating. The first problem is what allowed Iran-contra to happen in the first place. The second only made the first issue worse.
At the time, there was impeachment talk. And there was talk about Reagan being too feeble mentally to continue being president. But in the end, the economy was too strong, he was too popular and he said he was sorry on TV. So, he was able to coast through his second term.
Now, contrast that with what we have going on with Trump. While the economy is doing well, Trump is nonetheless very unpopular. What’s more I feel the now-infamous “choppertalk” press conference recently where he said he was “the chosen one” and looked up at the sun is going to mark a new era in the Trump Administration.
I say this because it was appears to be something of a tipping point. The way people think of Trump’s mental state has changed a little bit. For a long time, we’ve been told to take Trump’s craziness “seriously but not literally.” His crazy comments the other day were a first in the sense that it’s difficult to defend them, no matter how hard you try. That Trump would use an anti-Semitic trope against America’s Jews is just weird. It’s difficult to say he is playing 8 dimensional chess on this one. I’ve seen at least one talking head on cable news try, but I don’t know how successful they were.
Now, I say the following with the some caveats. One is, authoritarian populists don’t lose. So, even if Trump becomes completely catatonic, Pence and Ivanka will carry him around Weekend At Bernie’s style for next six years if need be. In other words, in the event Trump finally loses his mind, we’re stuck with him. Because Trump is an avatar for white identity politics, he could effectively be in a straightjacket and you still could not get 67 Senators to convict him. And given how disorganized the Resistance is, I don’t see Trump losing in a general election, either.
So, what I see happening is various degrees of a Regency. Either it will be common knowledge that a handful of people are running the executive for Trump, or it will be done in secret for as long as possible. They’ll just wait out the clock and until it’s seen as a moot point.
Anyway, given our history with Reagan, it’s pretty much a foregone conclusion that Trump would effectively be mentally incapacitated and nothing will happen.
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