Tag: TrumpRussia

The Possible Iran-Contra Endgame For #TrumpRussia

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

For all the liberal fever dreams about how Trump will eventually be impeached by the House and convicted by the Senate, we have to accept that by the time Robert Mueller finally presents his conclusions to the Congress, things could be so completely muddled that it will be a moot point.

Add to that the cold, hard fact that Trump’s poll numbers are creeping up and Trump could very well pull an epic wag the dog by starting a preemptive war against the DPRK and you have a recipe for a Iran-Contra type endgame for #TrumpRussia.

It’s a classic instance of history maybe not repeating, but definitely rhyming. Iran-Contra was a huge Constitutional clusterfuck for several different reasons and the president at the time, Ronald Reagan managed to escape relatively unscathed. So, it’s very possible that if the economy continues to do well along with a strategic and timely war with the DPRK (and maybe some painful, uncharacteristic groveling) Trump could not only escape serious political harm, he could manage to prosper enough to have a second term.

The only reason why I suggest Trump might do the required public self-flagellation needed for the Iran-Contra endgame to come to be is what he did as part of the Access Hollywood tape scandal. He said he was sorry and he was able to go about his business. And, if Trump does, in fact, find himself at risk of being impeached, I have a feeling he’ll bend his knee to the public to save his job.

Though, I have to note, presidential second terms are not known for being all that great. The usually are pretty shitty compared to energetic first term. Usually, by the middle of the second term, Americans begin to grow unhappy with an president and weird things begin to happen. Trump, himself, is a manifestation of this. So, should Trump slouch towards a second term, some seriously fucked up shit might happen.

My biggest fear is that America’s already broken democracy is finally shatter altogether and there’s no going back. We will finally enter an era of fully “managed democracy” like they have in Russia. I used to think that could never happen, that America has too much spunk. But I’m afraid I’m beginning to lose hope. I’m beginning to fear that we’re fucked. I’m beginning to fear that there will never be a free and fair election in the United States in my lifetime. Or, if a Democrat wins it will be because of a really bizarre fluke.

It’s all very unfortunate, very sad and tragic. The major problem is we’re in an extended Civil Cold War with no end in sight. In fact, I might suggest that only a real civil war might end this turmoil. But the greater tragedy may be that when push come to shove there won’t be a war at all. The states will split peacefully for no other reason that they have, at last, nothing in common.

#Trump, A Reassessment: Mulling The Long Con #Resist

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

For about six months after Trump’s election, I was so angry that I seethed with rage. Now that I have calmed down considerably, I find myself struggling to understand why Trump won and what is continued appeal is for roughly 37% of the American electorate.

We have to understand that Trump is a product of social media. Something about the rise of social media has made people extremely partisan. Some of it has to do, I think, with how easy it is to block or otherwise avoid people who disagree with you. So, both sides simply wallow in an echo chamber of things they agree with, leading to the breakdown of the traditional basic need of democracy to have consensus, compromise and synthesis. Throw in dark money, gerrymandering and Russian meddling through bots and paid trolls and you have us where we are today.

And, yet, we have one significant thing to be thankful for: Trump has no political ideology. He has no strategy. He’s all about the tactical win. He’s all about winning the moment. If Trump had the rock-hard ideology of, say, Pat Buchanan, we would be in serious trouble indeed.

But, as it stands, there is no Trumpism without Trump. Whatever magical mystery power Trump has over a sizable chunk of the electorate is attached to him personally. So, really, the only way to get rid of Trumpism is to completely vanquish Trump personally as a political force. That is quite tricky because the American Republic is on such shaky legs for various reasons that the core problems that allowed the Trump caner to fester will remain for many years to come.

One issue is people like me are too quick to enrage and not engage Trump supporters because, well, we’re at a loss as to where to begin. Where do we begin to engage people who we feel support a racist, misogynist bigoted nativist? I struggle to do that for various reasons. I closest I can come is seeing that the blind rage of people in rural areas about the modern liberal order was so great in 2016 that they were willing to overlook any flaw on Trump’s part because they thought he would, in fact “drain the swamp.”

That’s the thing that I think people like me have the most difficulty understanding: that core group of people who support Trump really do support the authoritarian chaos that he has caused since he came to power. That’s what they wanted. It’s difficult for secular humanists like me understand why “values voters” could possibly support the thrice married Trump. But they do. They do because they know that while he’s using them for his own political needs, he will, in fact give them the reach around that they have longed for so desperately. He gives them a sense of power that they haven’t felt in decades, if ever. The fact that it’s all a gross political ploy doesn’t phase them.

Another thing people like me struggle to understand is that fact that rock hard core group of Trump supporters that aren’t going anywhere really do think a Hillary Clinton administration would have been worse. They actually, to this day, really think that. They may be a lot more quiet than they were election day night, but they still think it.

Which raises an interesting counter-factual. What if Clinton had won? What would the world look like a year after the election? Probably something like this: instead of Trump’s tweets causing chaos from the White House, they would incite the Republican Congress to look for any number of different reasons to impeach Clinton and they probably would have gotten pretty damn close.

But Trump won. So we have to deal with the consequences. One of the crucial unknowns is will things snap back into place once Trump finally leaves the public sphere, or are we doomed. Are we going to suffer a Russian-style autocracy from now on because of the damage that Trump has inflicted on our body politic, or will we go back to some semblance of normalcy once he’s gone?

The answer to this question lies, in great part, to who succeeds Trump. If it’s Mike Pence, probably things will be more likely to snap back into some semblance of being normal. However, if Trump manages to last a full term, or even get re-elected, all bets are off. It is possible, probably probable, that we’ve reached some sort of event horizon whereby the realms of celebrity and politics are so muddle that they are indistinguishable.

It may be that the person who manages to heal the divides caused by Trump — and they are many — won’t be a traditional politician at all, but a liberal celebrity who manages to bridge the gaping wound that Trump has caused in our national psyche. The longer Trump stays president, the more likely it will be, say a Stephen Colbert or Jon Stewart who succeeds him. I like to think that the only person who stands up to the middle school bully is the middle school class clown and it would make a lot of sense if someone like them took up the challenge of bringing down Trumpism. Though of late I’ve begun to think that the only person who could handle the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune any Democrat would suffer at the hands of FOX News’ bullshit would be someone tough as nails like Chelsea Handler.

The most ominous aspect of all of this is it’s possible we’re doomed. It really is possible that the United States is now a failed state and the only thing keeping it together is Trump himself. It’s possible that Trumpists are so completely deluded and brainwashed by their bullshit bubble that once he’s no longer in power things will grow dire indeed. And that doesn’t even begin to address the possibility that someone really dangerous — a charismatic Right-wing nutjob with an ideology — may learn from the mistakes of Trump and inflict the final death blow to the American Republic. That we really may fall of the precipitous into a dystopia.

I would like to think I have some hope that that worse case scenario won’t happen, but I don’t. History doesn’t go in a straight line and there are absolutely no assurances that the good guys will win. All we can hope is that some sort of sanity will return to American political discussion sooner rather than later.

Shelton Bumgarner is a writer and photographer living in Richmond, Va. He can be reached at migukin (at) gmail.com.

What’s The Craic? #TrumpRussia #ParadisePapers #Podcast

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

What’s the Craic?
This is a new podcast like thing we’re doing where we talk about events of the day. In today’s edition, we talk about the shooting in #Texas, #GunControl and the #NRA. We also talk about the #ParadisePapers, #Trump and #TrumpRussia. It takes a little while to get going, but in general this is a pretty good chat. If you like it, be sure to follow us and share this video as well.

V-log: We Are Rushing Towards A Dark & Troubling Future #DPRK #TrumpRussia

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

Any normal president would seriously thinking of giving a national speech apologizing for TrumpRussia. But Trump is not a normal president. And TrumpRussia is not a normal scandal. The only thing I can of that will allow Trump to survive this scandal is a major war in Northeast Asia.

I don’t know what happens next. I just don’t know.

Talk To Me Internet: How Trump Could Get Out Of His Predicament

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

In the mid-80s, it looked like Ronald Reagan was a goner. He was involved in a huge scandal called Iran-Contra. But he was too popular and he also was able to do some effective crisis control when he essentially did a national address and apologized for what happened.

While it doesn’t seem likely that Donald Trump would do such a thing, he did pretty much apologize after the Access Hollywood tape and so if he really wants to be president all that bad he might do it. He could announce that he’s pardoning all the key figures, apologize and ask that the nation move on.

But Trump is no normal president and it’s very possible he may prefer to start a war with North Korea than risk losing power. Only time will tell, I guess.

Eugene Hasenfus, George Papadopolous And The Fall Of The House of Trump

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

I go into great length about this in the associated video, but I’ll write something up as well.

Ok, see, Iran-Contra broke because a CIA operative named Eugene Hasenfus got shot down in Nicaragua. That’s what blew the whole thing wide-open because he was carrying arms to the Contras and that opened a whole can of worms that went all the way to the clueless president at the time, Ronald Reagan. The whole thing almost cost Reagan his presidency, and the only way he got out of it all was he address the nation and said he was sorry.

I am suggesting that the part of Euge Hasenfus in TrumpRussia will be played by George Papadoplous. He is the guy — because he was maybe wearing a wire for a few months — who could bring down Trump. I don’t know for sure, but the historical comparison fits.

In the video below, I also suggest that the only way Trump may get out of all of this is by starting a war with the DPRK. This is because a war with the DRPK would re-set everything, just like 9/11. We’d wake up from a daze in a few year and Trump would still be president. I really do suggest you watch the below video, though. It’s pretty good.

Talk To Me Internet: We’re In A Crisis #TrumpRussia #Resist

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

Talk to Me Internet
We’re in a crisis when it comes to #TrumpRussia and the next few days will be significant. There’s not much we can do about it. It will be interesting to see what #Mueller does on Monday. #Trump may freak out and do something crazy. I am also worried that Hillary Clinton is in real danger because of Trump’s insane behavior.

Talk To Me Internet: We Need To Do Something About Twitter

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

It’s pretty obvious that we are going to have a repeat of 2016’s political catastrophe if don’t do something about Twitter’s bot problem. But, alas, it’s just not a priority for us as a nation right now. The Russians will come back eventually and keep throwing elections to the politician of their choice until The Powers That be finally, finally have a vested interested to do something

How long that will be, exactly, is anyone’s guess.

Could be a long, long, long, long time. Decades.

It would be cool to think Google would buy Twitter and do something really cool with it or that, hell, maybe the government would buy it. But, alas, neither one of those things is ever going to happen and we’re just screwed.

Here’s a bonus Talk To Me Internet:

Of The Resistance, Watergate, TrumpRussia & The Coming ‘Pence Pivot’

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

In some ways, the similarities between Richard Nixon and Donald Trump are spooky and in other ways, they’re just not there. Nixon was actually, like, smart and stuff, while Trump is a pretty big moron. As I have said before, Trump is kind of like the movie Being There’s Chancy Gardner on mushrooms. He’s weirdly politically adept in a horribly divisive way.

I have Watergate on the brain because it’s the 45 anniversary of the weekend the original break-in took place and it’s pretty obvious that we’re not even in the second act of this tragedy. The story started on Nov. 9th, the inciting incident was the firing of Jim Comey and now we’re waiting for something to push the protagonist into the second act. The thing that comes to me off the top of my head would be Trump firing Bob Muller. That seems to make the most sense. But we’ll see.

Remember, Watergate took two full years to play out and that took place in the context of far less partisanship, much different technology and a president who had the good sense to at least keep his bizarre ramblings to himself — if albeit on tape. One thing about TrumpRussia that makes it worse than Watergate is the foreign aspect. But just look at the parts of the scandal we have to wade through in the coming years.

1. Possible collusion between Trump’s “satellites” and Russian hackers
2 What is the deal with Flynn?
3. The firing of Jim Comey.
4. All sorts of weird money issues.
5. Enormous, epic and glaring violations of the emoluments clause.

One thing is for sure, we have at least a year of this bizarre drama ahead of us. I give it a year because about a year from now is when the 2018 mid-term elections will really begin to heat up. So it seems as though there is a real chance — if the Access Hollywood tape is any indication — that Trump may very well apologize to the nation for what happen, admit that his “satellites” did collude with the Russians and then pardon everyone he can think of while firing Bob Muller. That would be one tactic he might use to get himself out of his sticky wicket.

If he doesn’t do something like that, the he may very well just drag Bob Muller’s reputation through the mud to such an extent that in the eyes of the center-Right at least, there won’t be any credibility to anything the says. If something like that can happen to John Kerry, then it can happen to anyone in Washington.

One interesting thing is I have a feel that at the very moment that people like me — the center-Left and people on the other side — the center-Right — can agree that Trump has to go, the center-Right will, without blinking, do a “Pence pivot” and say no matter what, it was all worthwhile to get a President Pence. That is mind boggling and so outrageous — and so easy to imagine to happening — that I have to say it makes me kind of depressed. We won’t have any moment in time when both sides agree that Trump was a tragic mistake that could have been avoided.

Within moments, we’ll go from fighting over Trump to fighting over Pence without the center-Right missing a beat. Some about the “Pence pivot” is so intellectually dishonest that it makes me white hot. People don’t really vote for the veep, they vote for the president. All of this tragedy that we’re wading into could have been avoided if people had just seen Trump at the time for what he is — an existential threat to the Republic.

It is all very sad and unsettling and makes you wonder how history will view TrumpRussia 20 or 40 years from now. Will it be seen as “worse than Watergate,” or something more along the lines of Iran-Contra or Whitewater. If Trump plays his cards right, he definitely go go the Ronald Reagan Iran-Contra route, even though Trump is no Reagan and TrumpRussia is a lot worse than Iran-Contra.

One thing The Resistance really needs to keep its eye on, instead of risking outrage fatigue, is the agenda that Trumplandia is pushing through while we’re all busy being upset over the details of TrumpRussia. We need to keep an eye on how Trump is attempting to pack the Federal bench with insane people. We need to keep an eye on the secret efforts to repeal and replace Obamacare in the Senate. We need to keep and eye on the effort to generally destroy the social welfare state that, ironically enough, many Trump voters desperately need.

Regardless, there are no easy answers. As I have said, history doesn’t go in a straight line. We’re barely in the middle of the TrumpRussia scandal era. We’ve got, at a minimum another year of all of this ahead of us and it could be much longer than that if you through in a major terrorist attack or a wag the dog war with Iran or North Korea.

All I can say is keep your emotional powder dry. Stay energized. Stay engaged. Don’t get overwhelmed. Vote. Be willing to talk to someone you disagree with, even if you think there’s no chance of changing their mind. It’s the only way we’re going to make it through this tragic event.

Psychological Observation About Trump From Access Hollywood Tape Incident

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

I hate it, but I’m turning it a one-man Donald Trump truth squad. Anyway, if you remember what happened with the Access Hollywood tape incident, he saved his sorry ass by apologizing in all but name. So what happens from a political stand point if a year from now, just before the 2018 mid-terms, Trump suddenly realizes the gravity of the situation he faces and, well, comes clean to the fullest extent he can?

Then what?

Given the impeachment is a political, not criminal event, it’s possible that would be the thing that would allow him to survive and even prosper. The thing that would allow him to put this whole TrumpRussia thing behind him — admit that his “satellites” did, in fact, collude with the Russians and then say the time for the nation to move on had come.

It definitely seems like that’s how Trump would go about surviving this mess.