by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
The idea that we consider “WW3” is actually a spectrum of different scenarios, with The End Of The World being on one end and just a big old lulz at the other end. A lot of what would be “WW3” would be something that was marketed as such by the press.
The most likely scenario for something called “WW3” would be two or more regional wars happening at the same time. So, if China attacked Taiwan because it felt Russia was a brother in arms, then, that, legitimately, could be called WW3.
But no matter what, it’s at least possible that WW3 has already begun, we just don’t realize it yet. If Russia used low-grade battlefield nukes on Ukraine, then the slide into an actual fighting war between NATO and Russia would likely accelerate. And given that the 80 year old taboo against using nukes would no longer exist, Taiwan would definitely begin to look far more enticing to China. And, of course, you have the wildcard of the DPRK floating around.
AND — and this is a very important and — you have to take into account that the US is careening towards unprecedented instability starting the moment the Republicans take control of Congress. And that instability will only get worse and worse as we approach the existential choice of autocracy or civil war in the 2024 – 2025 timeframe.
So, it’s possible that in hindsight, 2022 will be seen not as 1939, but as 1937, the year when Japan attacked China in a big way and laid the groundwork for WW2. Or, put another way, you could go so far as to say you can count in months the time we have of lingering “normal” life before all hell really breaks loose.
The real question is what will the world look like once we get through this Great Reset or Fourth Turning (or whatever you want to call it.) Either humanity will be run by a bunch of autocrats or we’ll be even more united and able to deal with Big Issues like global climate change.
A few million (billion?) people may have died to get us to that latter endgame, but hopefully their deaths won’t have been in vain. But let me be clear — the United States is ripe for revolution / civil war in the coming years. If you were looking at America as different nation than ours this would be clear. And, honestly, I think the only thing that’s stopped us from collapsing is interia and the general laid back national personality of Americans. We’re not French, afterall.
Gird your loins.
