Tag: Second American Revolution

The Conditions Exist For Something Extraordinary To Happen In The United States Soon


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I find myself thinking about the French Revolution a lot these days. It seems as though while Neo-Confederate MAGA-Qanon cocksuckers are so busy thinking about masturbating to a Second American Civil War, they’re totally oblivious to the possibility of a Second American Revolution.

Or, to put it another way, Trump sliced the seal on Pandora’s Box and it seems as though the question is how bad things are going to get. Now, before I continue, the counter argument is that the Trump Era in itself was something of a Cold Civil War. And, while there’s no going back after that particular clusterfuck, in the end, a new equilibrium of sorts will be established and we’ll gradually drift into the New Normal of post-Trumpian politics.

But we WILL remain in the realm of politics.

In all honesty, that’s definitely what I want to have happen.

And, yet, it’s very easy to imagine a future historian describing the fall of the First American Republic, then revolution then civil war and then the founding of a Second Republic. This would not happen in a vacuum, of course. In all likelihood, there would be a World War 3 because of that particular chain of events.

But what, exactly, would happen and why? There are simply too many variables for me to begin to predict. And, yet, I could see Trump going transactional on Twitter which would incite the violence he needed to invoke the Insurrection Act and hunker down to stay in office the rest of his life. Then the military gets involved — maybe even implodes itself — and initially there’s Balkanization of the United States into different major polities (Texas, California, maybe Florida) and isolated incidents of Revolutionary governments being established in, say, places like New York City and the Deep South.

The whole post-World War 2 liberal order would be destroyed and something new created from the ashes. I mean, if big chunks of the globe are a post-apocalyptic hellscape because Sectreary of State Mike Pompeo thought he could “force” Jesus to return, then, well, things might be a bit different going forward.

As is usual with my worse case scenarios, it’s not like I can predict the future. And even if I did, it’s likely whatever happened would occur within a spectrum. The point is — either things snap back to a New Normal, or everything burns to the ground and it’s every man for himself.

The scary thing is, at this point, I honestly don’t know which one it’s going to be.

What Are We Going To Do If Trump Finally Snaps?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m still not prepared to believe that there isn’t going to be a successful court coup or Elector coup or some sort of coup on the part of House Trump that pushes the country into a violent civil war / revolution. It just seems like Trump keeps dropping depth charges and eventually the Kraken of violence is going to pop out of the dark waters of our body politic.

And, yet, maybe that –thankfully — won’t happen.

But as we all know, Trump doesn’t take losing well.

So, it’s within the realm of possibility that we may have something of a bonkers spectrum ahead of us. On one end of the spectrum, Trump goes bonkers on a personal level. Let’s call that “implosion.” He whips his cock out and strokes it during a press conference. He tweets out the N-word to Obama. Really crazy — but personal — things.

On the other end of the crazy spectrum is “explosion.” Having failed to woo individual Electors to vote for him, he goes transactional on Twitter. He literally tells his followers to start blowing shit up and murdering people. Or he does so during a Fox News interview that is obviously NOT a joke.

Then what are we going to do? Is there anything we *can* do? Is that how we descend into what seems the near-inevitability of massive political violence? Actual sedition by the sitting president?

Remember, even if it’s one of Trump’s own followers who causes a Reichstag Fire, it’s still a Reichstag Fire. I honestly don’t what happens. It could go a number of different ways.

Our Very American Coup Isn’t Over Yet


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It ain’t over folks. Trump still believes he can somehow win. But now the risk of a violent civil war is significantly greater should he manager to pull off what he wants — a “political 9/11.”

Here’s what we have to look forward to.

Legislative Nullification
In this crisis happens after Republican-dominated legislators simply refuse to do their job, even if it’s against the law or they have no right to do it. They simply nullify Biden’s win by either throwing up their hands in faux confusion or name their OWN MAGA Electors. This. Could. Still Happen. This will happen they’ve been coaxed and browbeaten by Rudy’s disinformation campaign within Newsmax-OANN bullshit chamber. Remember, the point of THIS would be to throw the disputed Electors to Congress where the law is so poorly written that it would go to SCOTUS and Trump would win.

Elector Intimidation Crisis
If we get past the Certification Nullification Crisis, we have Trump freak out and attempt to appeal personally to the Electors themselves. He may even alternate good cop – bad cop with Jr. Jr. doxes Electors on Twitter, while Trump himself invites them all to a 48 hour retreat to Camp David. Everybody got a price. Everybody got a family. Electors are humans. They are no different.

SCOTUS coup
If Rudy pulled this gambit off, this would really be an honest-to-God-coup. As I understand it, there’s a case making its way up the judicial chain of command to SCOTUS. It’s a procedural case with no evidence other than, “We’ll give it to you when we get to SCOTUS.” So, I guess the thinking is, if they can simply get something, ANYTHING in front of SCOTUS then someone like, say, Bill Barr could potentially swoop in with new “evidence” that would allow Trump to be handed the election outright. The issue is, that’s not how any of this works, so if it DOES work, then that’s a coup and a rather brazen one. In other words, all the law-types saying what I propose isn’t even applicable are right — but so am I.

Trump’s January Freak Out
If all this doesn’t work out then things get REALLY UGLY. Trump could just go insane because he can’t process leaving office and potentially going to jail. There is a spectrum of things that could happen. From the benign — he quits after pardoning himself, to The END: Trump snaps and starts a war with Iran. Mike Pompeo thinks Trump is the anti-Christ and this is last chance to force the Rapture by having a literal Battle of Armageddon. This would probably happen when Pompeo gets Israel to strike Iran first, they strike back at Israel and then bang! end of the world. Sadly, no Jesus Christ returning, just The End of Human Civilization.

And, remember, as I keep saying, Rudy’s gambit is all tactical. They just want to “not lose.” They have no idea what happens if they actually get away with all this bullshit. But if do manage to pull off a “political 9/11” at this point then were will be a violent civil war and / or revolution and potentially The End of everything. Like, that would be it. Human civilization would be ended because of Trump personally via WW3 when America is “disposed” during its implosion.

What Is Wrong With You People (Who Want A Second American Civil War)


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I just don’t get people who actually want a Second American Civil War. Talk about the dumbest timeline! If you have a political belief that causes you to want not only mass murder but the potential end of human civilization through a World War 3, maybe you need to rethink what you believe.

The issue is — once a civil war started in the United States two thing would happen. One, the two sides would grow significantly more radical and would likely steal WMD from American military bases. The other is, the entire post-World War 2 liberal order would collapse and WW3 would begin.

So, yeah.

It seems as though what people who want a civil war want is to be able to wave a wand where they don’t have to worry about being “canceled” for just being conservative. Or something. They simply can not accept how fast America is changing on social issues and so they would rather risk the lives of millions than accept, say, gay marriage or the sexual agency of women. That’s kind of deep. But I guess if all you do is watch Newsmax and OANN, then there’s not much else you can expect.

I am obsessed with my Webstats and it definitely seems as though a lot of Southern cocksuckers really do think “the South will rise again.” Speaking as a New South Southerner — grow up, you idiots. Accept the modern world. I can’t help that you’re in too invested in the MAGA personality death cult.

Do I think there’s going to be a civil war? I honestly don’t know. But I will say if Rudy’s SCOTUS gambit works at this late date or if some idiot blows something up in protest to a Biden Administration, all bets are off. Anything, but anything is possible.

Rudy’s SCOTUS ‘Political 9/11’ Gambit


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarer

What gets me is people like Chris Christie don’t understand what Rudy and his goons are really up to. The point is not to win anything in court, the point is to make the average person, who is too busy raising their kids and paying their mortgage to worry about politics, think what’s going on is “just like 2000.”

It is not, as you may know, “just like 2000.”

The 2000 race was decided by about 500 odd votes. Under the conditions of 2000, Trump has lost, lost, lost. Rudy knows that if he can make it seem as though the result of the election is still up in the air — which isn’t — then they have a shot at pulling off a “political 9/11” at SCOTUS should the opportunity arise.

Or, put another way, they want to create enough doubt within the center-Right bullshit echochamber that about 50% of the population listens to, that it gives cover to MAGA legislators in Michigan and Pennsyliva to simply nullify the certification of votes. If that works, then we have a coup.

It will be given a thin cover of “this is just like 1876,” but it’ll be a coup. It goes to CONGRESS, NOT THE HOUSE, and because the law on disputed Electors is shit and Congress is split….it goes to SCOTUS and Trump “doesn’t lose.”

That’s the disinformation strategy that Rudy is has in mind right now. I’m not being hysterical to say this strategy has worked over and over and over and over and over and over again for Rudy the last four years, so makes sense that it will work YET AGAIN.

The stakes are a lot higher, but the results will be the same — Trump lives to fight another day.

Now, of course, there is zero overarching strategy to any of this other than “just win,” so when they do “win,” there’s probably going to be a civil war / revolution and a lot — maybe a huge amount — of Americans on both sides will die for no damn reason.

I hope I’m wrong. I’m often — almost always — wrong. But at least be aware of what’s really going on right now.

My Hot Take On Kyle Rittenhouse


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Where to begin on this one. It definitely seems as though if you want something that encapsulates what’s going on in American politics right now, you need look no further than Kyle Rittenhouse murdering people in cold blood and the American Right rallying to his support.

There’s no defense, none what so ever, for what Rittenhouse did, and, yet, here we are with people spotting him his $2 million bail so he can get endorsements from a gun manufacturer. It’s completely bonkers. The only thing I guess you might use to explain this otherwise surreal behavior is Rittenhouse is now something of a John Brown figure.

He did what a bunch of grown men think they wanted to do, and so they bought into his martyrdom and here we are. I’ve come to believe that barring something pretty spectacular, that there isn’t going to be a civil war. Any violence is going to come from Trump’s use of the Insurrection Act — probably because of mass protests from him staging A Very American Coup.

But, otherwise, meh. Just don’t see it.

Or, put another way, it’s possible the far Right is going to start murdering people, the government will support it and then, and only then, will there be something marketed as a “civil war.”

For the time being, however, we’re heading towards something of a stalemate, not civil war. A lot of protests, maybe, and the occasional bonkers Right wing person like Rittenhouse killing innocent people, but otherwise, not a lot is going to happen.

I’m willing to revise that assessment as a events warrant.

Autocrats Never Lose: What If You Held A Second American Civil War & And Nobody Came?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We have to be honest with ourselves, it’s possible that as we speak, Trump dangling sweet, sweet cash in front of Republican legislators from states like Michigan and Pennsylvania as a form of quid pro quo for them to throw the election to him by “nullifying” the certification of the vote.

In other words, damn the law, they just won’t do it because they don’t want to.

Now, as I understand it, the logic of these shenanigans is to throw the election to Congress where the, because the House and Senate are split, SCOTUS will get involved and, by definition, Trump will win. It would be nothing less than a political 9/11. We’re all just going to walk around in a daze for a few days that Trump managed to pull it off.

And, really, at that point the circle will be closed. We can impeach Trump (and Pence?) all we want to, but TrumpBarr will begin to consolodate power at an alarming rate and he’ll laugh off any impeachment trial in the Senate. I say this even if we manage to win to those two crucial Georgia Senate seats. Trump could murder someone in cold blood while having sex with Ivanka and eating a baby and Senate Republicans won’t blink an eye. As long as Trump doesn’t become a Muslim or raise taxes, he really is something akin to a God King.

It’s sad, but true.

I keep ranting about how all that would start a civil war, but would it really? There might be huge protests, but a civil war? Really? More likely with the upcoming purge of the media, we’ll just be in a Belarusian-like stalemate where there are lots of protests but nothing really happens. And any violence that does happen, TrumpBarr just use the Insurrection Act to squelch it.

Then Trump demands a Constitutional Convention to “pass a balanced budget amendment,” and before you know it, they’re passing a 1984 doublespeak “Second Bill of Rights.”

So, that’s it. That’s how America finally becomes a Russian-style autocracy. We have a political 9/11, nothing really happens and American democracy dies not with a bang but with a whimper.

Oh well. At least I have the novel. I’d prefer not to be pushed out of a window by ICE before I can finish it.

Pay Attention, People: Rudy Wants Republicans To Nullify The Election Of Joe Biden On An Institutional Level


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We are so very fucked. I’m well aware that I overestimate RudyTrumpBar a lot, but Rudy is using on Republicans the same strategy he has used time and again on the American people over the last 4 years. Rudy doesn’t care about court, he cares about media narrative messaging for one specific group: the Republicans who have it within their power to certify the vote.

And that’s just one of several huge crises we have to suffer through. If the certification crisis doesn’t work, then we have the Elector Intemidation crisis to live through. THEN we have the Great Trump January Freak Out crisis to deal with.

Autocrats never lose.
Autocrats never lose.
Autocrats never fucking lose.

I’m wrong all the fucking time. But it definitely seems as this point either we stumble into an extreme version of the 2000 election or we have a fucking civil war / revolution. Like, one where real people with real lives — like you and fucking me — die for no Goddamn reason.

The “best” case scenario then is we just have lingering political violence after Trump uses the Insurrection Act to manage the country. Worst fucking case scenario is the country implodes and we have an actual, real life fucking civil war with armies and WMD used, the entire collapse of the global order and WW3.

I’m well aware that this sounds extremely hysterical, but Rudy has made it quite clear what his strategy is — he wants to “shame” Republicans into nullifying the election for our very lazy, very deranged autocrat Mad King.

This is our future. Or, at least, the future Rudy is actively attempting to create. What happens when this “political 9/11” happens is up to us.

All Roads Lead To SCOTUS (& A Coup…Then A Civil War)


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I am often wrong. But here’s what I’m looking at right now. The entire point of the Trump’s legal challenges to the election is to get to SCOTUS. Once it’s at SCOTUS they will win, no matter what.

Then the whole country convulses and a civil war breaks out.

Why anyone would actually WANT such a civil war is beyond me. But we just have way too much time between now and January 20th for SCOTUS to not get involved. There are just too many moving parts that TrumpBarr can fuck with.

I predict we’re going to have a “political 9/11,” very soon where we all wander around in a daze for a few hours as it sinks in that Rudy got SCOTUS to overturn the election. It will be a real “where were you when” type of moment. This will happen either as a result of a “certification crisis” or an “Elector intimidation’ crisis.

Really, the only reason why we might manage to escape this clusterfuck is, well, not only has the election already been called, but Trump and Rudy are just very, very incompetent. But they do have Barr.

So, prove me wrong, folks. I really want to be wrong. But, remember, there are two different Americas right now. There’s MAGA America and everyone else. In MAGA land, they assume my worst nightmare is simply a reality waiting to happen.

Throw in the Insurrection Act and we’re all fucked. At best, we’ll have regular huge protests and massive explosions around the country, at worst we have dueling presidents and actual civil war / revolution. If you want that, please fuck off you piece of shit.

Why Trump Will Dox Electors On Twitter


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m wrong all the time. But here’s something to think about.

  1. Trump is deranged.
    Trump is an autocrat — if a very bad one — and as it grows more obvious that he will be indicted by NYS after leaving office, he’s going to do anything necessary to “not lose.”
  2. It will be value free.
    By the time we get around to impeaching Trump for doing this, we’ll have moved on to the next thing. The intimidated Electors were “legal” votes and fuck you, lib.
  3. He’ll be president, fuck you lib.
    What are you going to do if Trump intimidates Electors to vote for him, impeach and convict him? This is never going to work, especially if Democrats can’t take the Senate. So, in that sense, at a minimum, Interior Minster Barr will believe Trump can get away with a coup. Trump will dox Electors on Twitter, the Proud Boys scare the hell out of them — they vote for Trump. The End. Coup successful. (Though, of course, this would likely cause a civil war / revolution, but #MoscowMitch doesn’t think in those terms. It’s all about power for power’s sake and owning the libs.)