Is The ‘Fourth Turning’ Just A Bunch Of Lucky Bullshit?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Steve Bannon’s favorite book, “The Fourth Turning,” sure does seem to jibe pretty well with my own personal prediction — the United States is in for a severe political crisis no later than around (January) 2025.

And, yet, there’s a lot of that book that seems, I don’t know, historical bullshit. It seems as though they had a idea they wanted to sell and reverse engineered things to the point that what they already believed made sense.

For instance, they themselves say that their concept of “Turnings” can’t account for when the Civil War happened. But, to be fair, you could say that the unexpected deaths of both William Henry Harrison and Zachary Taylor may have have somehow sped up the Civil War so it didn’t happen according to macro trends. Whenever you try “psychohistory” you can’t account for how the life — or death — of one individual changes huge macro trends.

So, I dunno.

I think some of my annoyance comes from my belief that no one can predict the future and there’s no reveled truth. I don’t like the idea that people who are lazy just want to read The Fourth Turning and somehow think they’ve got everything figured out.

And, really, the only reason why The Fourth Turning has a shot at being extremely good at predicting the future is Donald Fucking Trump. He’s sort of the potential “Great Man” who could fucking destroy the United State simply by being himself.

Anyway. Fuck Steve Bannon, that piece of shit.

‘A Tipping Point’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Holy Shit

The above is a tipping point for me. It proves to me that my dystopian hellscape for late 2024 – early 2025 is probably pretty close to being accurate. As such, the time for hysterics is over. The time for “hope” is over.

The era of preperation has begun.

Now, I absolutely hate violence — hell, conflict — of any sort. I don’t want to hurt anyone for any reason. But I’m a survivor. And, in my experience, the key to surviving a crisis is to recognize that one exists.

We’re in a crisis.

It’s kind of downlow right now because we’re an autocracy without an autocrat, but we’re careening towards a stunning political crisis at some point between now and January 2025.

Now, things won’t be exactly like 2020 because the person who would be certifying the vote would be a Democrat, Vice President Harris. But that’s pretty late in the game.

Republicans — I see you Roger Stone — are actively taking a shiv to local voting boards. And if they can’t corrupt the system there, they’ll do it at the state level and if they don’t succeed in fucking things up there, they’ll object again in Congress, hoping they can throw things in some way to the House and Senate.

The point is — the above memo is a smoking gun for me. Republicans really are out to destroy our liberal democracy and we all need to start acting accordingly. I don’t write for VOX, so, lulz, I have no idea what that means in real terms.

But I do know that anyone who starts telling me they “hope” this or that thing will save us has lost me. We’re dealing with macro trends that don’t have any easy answers like “vote” or “get involved.” When you’re dealing with an opposing political force that has come to glorify political violence and, worst of all, cheats, well, what can you really do?

I don’t know.

But you can’t do nothing. You have about four years to prepare. Use your time wisely.

MAGA New Right ‘Thought Leaders’ Are Such Fucking Morons — Even ‘Soyboys’ Got Spunk When Things Turn Existential


By Ender

I know that I sound hysterical. I know that seem to love peddling my own version of “fear porn” and “doom shit.” But we have to admit that no one is going to save us. There will be no “boom” that takes down the entire rotten, fetid Trumplandia edifice. (That this is a mirror image of MAGA Far Right discussions on Twitter about The Durham Report should tell you something.)

But one thing that is going on all around us is our politics has frozen up. We’ve reached a point in negative polarization where the two sides are absolutely opposed to anything the other side supports. As such, outside of a few highly educated NeverTrumper thinkers, there is no and will never be common cause against MAGA. There will never be a broad United Front formed to save our faltering democracy.

In short — we’re fucked.

And there are two, maybe three endgames to this. Either we slide peacefully into autocracy, a military junta takes over…or we have a civil war.

It’s this last option that MAGA New Right thought leaders become so giddy over. They keep saying that because “liberals won’t leave them alone,” they are going to have to turn to political violence. Their thinking is — liberal progressives are all soyboy milquetoasts who will be crush by their Alpha Male prowess.

This is such a fucking dumb thing to think.

I say this AGAIN because human nature is such that even a “sissy boy” is going to grow a lot more “alpha” if things grow existential. So, it seems to me the MAGA New Right cocksuckers who think Blue States will “collapse like a rotten door” will be in for a pretty rude awakening if things got so bad that we had a civil war.

But there is one thing to consider — WMD.

If we have a civil war, we’re probably going to bomb ourselves into oblivion.

Good luck!

Wargaming A Sept. 18 Capitol Catastrophe


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Do I really have to do this? Apparently, so, since I’ve gotten at least one ping from some rando in Texas who definitely seems interested in making my fears about Sept 18 come true. (I think they may have shared my recent post on the subject.)

Given that, let’s run the worse case scenario for what might happen this weekend.

There are a lot of known unknowns. One is, the amount of organization on the part of the protesters and their intent. Do they intend to do a replay of what happened on Jan 6th, or are they just angry and what to prove a point? The key issue is how organized they are and if they have it in them to storm the Capitol again.

A fence is being up around the Capitol, so if this weekend’s protesters freaked out, at least they would have to get past that. It could be that they just want to, in general, fuck shit up. That they don’t want something as grant as taking the Capitol, just cause problems.

So, a lot — A LOT — of problems would have to go wrong for the Capitol to be seized again. And, really, if they took the Capitol, the key issue would what they did with once they got it. If they take the Capitol again, they would need a security perimeter around the Capitol. And from what I can tell, they just don’t have the people to establish such a perimeter.

As such, I think while there may be violence this weekend, relative to what happened on Jan 6th, will be a dud.

I hope.

The Right Wing Protest Sept 18 Can Only Be So Bad, Right? Right?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The key issue with the January 6th attack on the Capitol was the element of surprise. It just did not even occur to anyone outside of far Right circles that anything was even possible. So when it happened, there was not enough security and what security there was, was not prepared and was easily over run.

As such, I seriously doubt there will be anything like what happened on January 6th at this weekend’s Sept 18th protest near the Capitol. I guess it’s still possible, it’s just not probable. And, really, if they did manage to do it again, they really need to put some more forethought into revolt’s security around the Capitol once they seize it.

If they can just have some order to their bonkers Hail Mary Pass move, they could join the Paris Commune in the history books as surreal political events. But these guys, thankfully, remain just a political grunt. And if they’re that organized to think about things like that, then we’re REALLY in trouble.

So, what I think will happen is the whole thing will give us PTSD from January 6th, but in the end it will be a lulz. That, at least, it what I think — hope — will be the maximum extent of any problems.

We’ve Crossed The Tyranny Event Horizon: Trump Holds America’s Fate In His Teeny-Tiny Hands


by Ender

At the moment, ding-dong Trump AGAIN holds the entire fate of the United States in his teeny-tiny hands. I say this because we face a far different future if someone else is the Republican nominee in 2024 than we do if it’s him. If its DeSantis or Cotton or Hawley or Pompeo, then we’re probably going to slip peacefully into some form of autocracy.

Good German Republicans will call people like me hysterical as we slowly — then not so slowly — begin to lose some rights that we’ve assumed we’d always have. Everything will come to a head when the argument of the day is if we’re going to have a MAGA-themed Constitutional Convention or not. It will be pitched to traditional American conservatives as the “only way” to pass a balanced budget amendment.

Then, lulz, fuck you, lib, it goes rouge and I definitely end up dead at the hands of a ICE agent.

But if Trump runs again, he is soooooo fucking stupid and incompetent that he could single handedly force the United States into a civil war. And it’s going to be Blue States who leave the Union. Remember, a lot — and I mean A LOT — of things would have to go wrong for us to get to that point.

The U.S. Military would have to sit back and let Blue States hold Secession Conventions. But, maybe they will.

Anyway, if it is Blue States who leave the Union (or try) and California stays with the Blue State Union then we’re probably going to bomb ourselves into oblivion using WMD.

I keep talking about this hysterical “doom shit” because Republicans are radicalized and so anti-democratic at this point that what else is going to happen? Why would anyone thing anything else is going to happen?

It seems as though the people who think I peddle political disaster porn either think the law is going to save us, or they tacitly agree with the coming autocracy we may face.

All I know, something’s gotta give. At some point the modern day Slave Power of MAGA either gets its way and establishes an white Christian ethno state, or there’s a civil war and (hopefully) its gaping wound gets cauterized.

Minority Report: Why I’m Wrong About A Coming Civil War or Autocracy In America


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I really was very hysterical — and wrong — about Trump. But there was something I could not have predicted about him, and that is how fucking lazy and stupid he is. I made a huge assumption, and that was the same assumption that the people who voted for him made: that he was the “You’re fired” guy and, as such, would bring autocracy to the United States.

Turns out, I was wrong.

He wasn’t the “You’re fired” guy — he was just a lazy, bonkers moron who was an avatar for the rot in the American political system.

These days, I’m ranting about how no later than January 2025, we’re going to either have a civil war or turn into an autocracy. This has led my far more conservative relatives to poo-poo this because, well, lulz, I was wrong once about a dystopian nightmare, I’m obviously going to be wrong again.

And I could very well be.

But there is one thing I will be shocked to see happen — the United States continue to be a Western democracy in the way we have been for 240 odd years. If that happens under Republican control, I will be totally, completely shocked. And that’s the rub — my conservative relatives won’t see the autocracy for what it is. They will just be happy that, at last, the liberals are owned for good and “cancel culture” has been outlawed.

It will be a struggle, pitched rhetorical battle, to get my conservative relatives to admit that the media has been purged and the only way a Democrat can become president is if their party controls Congress. My conservative relatives will lulz all of this — they agree with the autocracy, afterall — until it’s personal. THEN they’re going to freak out.

But, then, of course, it will be way, way, way too late. I’ll be proven right, but it won’t matter. I’ll be dead at the hand of an ICE agent because I fucking wouldn’t fucking shut up about President DeSantis (or Pompeo) being a sack of shit.

Or, who knows, may be my conservative relatives will continue their debate nullification technique of saying “no it won’t” whenever they don’t have a ready answer to my very well thought out talking point.

As for the civil war, I still think that’s going to be a matter of how deft the MAGA person in charge of our transition into autocracy is. If it’s Trump, we’re going to have a civil war. He’s just too stupid.

Anyway. Good luck.

China Would Make A Severe Strategic Mistake To Attack Taiwan In 2021


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Almost no one reads this blog. Like, no one. Maybe almost a 100 people on a good day. Otherwise, I’m just barking into the darkness. So, anything out of the ordinary catches my attention in this site’s Webstats.

Like, why are there people with French URLs who pop up out of the blue? Why are there people in Romania, of all places, who have started to read this blog? Is that one URL I think is a conservative relative who I think it is? And what was with that one person from Brooklyn who spent over an hour doing a deep dive into my rantings on this site? Should I be worried, or pleased with that one?

Anyway, another thing I’ve noticed is a teeny-tiny uptick in hits from China of all places. I think they’re people interested in my rantings about how we’re going to have a civil war at some point between now and January 2025?

Well, if that is the case, all I can say is — slow your roll.

Yes, the United States is as divided as it’s been since the Civil War, but that is going to change the moment there’s a major regional war. For the next four years, until we actually have that civil war (or turn into an autocracy) the United States will become a lot more united the moment we realize we have to gird our loins to save the world, AGAIN.

Around January 2025, however, all that could change.

It would be difficult for the United States to do anything about China — or the DPRK for that matter — if we’re too busy bombing ourselves into oblivion to do anything about it.

So, if you’re some sort of Chinese agent, reading this blog hoping to get a bead on the current American ability to defend Taiwan, that’s my advice.

What Could I Be Getting Wrong With All My ‘Hysterical Doom Shit’ About A Second American Civil War?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The conservatives in my family generally believe I’m being “hysterical” with all my “doom shit” about the prospect of a Second American Civil War in the near future. I think they read this blog and aren’t telling me, but, lulz.

Anyway, the argument I’ve gotten from my conservatives relatives is we have more to worry about from “woke” corporations listening to us using our phones and “canceling” us for not fitting the media narrative than my fear of autocracy or civil war. But these same relatives tell me that Trump isn’t going is going to run because he’s “just not,” so, I dunno.

So what am I missing? Am I just being “hysterical” with my “doom shit?”

There are a number of very concrete metrics that I can point to that indicate to me that I’m not being “hysterical” and we’re totally, completely fucked no later than Janaury 2025. We’re going to face the choice of autocracy or civil war at that point and I still don’t know the answer as to which one we’re going to do.

One of the many metrics that cause me a great deal of concern these days is how the MAGA New Right simply lies if there’s anything that doesn’t fit their own media narrative. They claim it’s a false flag. Or we didn’t see what we know we saw. Or whatever fuck else they can say to make themselves feel better.

It’s growing very aggravating.

But, who knows. We may just muddle through all of this. And I’ll look like a fool. It won’t be the first time.

Helter Skelter: The MAGA New Right’s Manson Family Values


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Something’s gotta give. The country is in a crisis. This crisis may fade in the coming days, or it may come to a head. The crisis was brought upon by Biden’s new COVID19 policies. The fit perfectly into the MAGA New Right’s narrative that “liberals won’t leave us alone” and, as such, they’re being forced to radicalize and to glorify potential political violence.

This leads us to, “So, what are they going to do about it?”

I don’t want to be right on this, but it’s easy to imagine if there was some sort of severe, organized political violence on the part of the MAGA New Right, the motive for it would be this — incite a civil war.

Whatever happened, they would hope that by blowing shit up in a coordinated way around the country –or, knocking important political figures off — that doing so would be enough to start some sort of MAGA New Right revolution. This is, of course, very similar to the motives of the Tate–LaBianca murders. Manson told his followers that the murders –that they wanted to pin a group of mysterious African Americans, as I understand it — would so outrage the white populace that a race war would be a direct result.

Or something like that.

Anyway, from what I can tell on Twitter, all the conditions are there for there to be some sort of shocking domestic terrorist attack in the near term. I could even see a false flag operation take place, whereby MAGA New Right cocksuckers try to pin whatever they do on Antifa in hopes that THAT will so shock the MAGA New Right that they get their civil war or revolution that way.

But we’re dealing with idiots, so I don’t know if they have it within them to be so diabolical.

This is the point where I say I’m always wrong and I’m being hysterical and don’t listen to me. Trump isn’t going to run again, there’s no risk of civil war and we have more to worry about from woke companies than any of the so-called would-be autocrats that I keep ranting about.

Everyone happy?