How To Survive The Civil War

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Let me begin by saying I’m not an expert. These are just my person suggestions. And, what’s more, there’s no reason to believe the United States will have another civil war. So, in that sense, this is all just mental masturbation. But here goes.

  1. Figure Out What You Believe In
    If the United States really does collapse into civil war, things are going to be existential — in the real world. As such, it will be no time for you to be wishy-washy and say you’re a “centrist.” Pick a side and be willing to die because you go through a checkpoint and you picked the wrong side.
  2. Be Prepared To Move
    If the country really does collapse, there are going to be a lot of domestic political refugees. So, if your politics doesn’t match that of the part of the country you live in — get ready to bug out.

    The following I don’t advocate. I’m just being honest with you.
  3. Become Something of a Survivalist
    If the United States really does have a civil war, you’re going to have to be handy with a gun. Learn to hunt. Learn how to negotiate for basic supplies. Things might get dark.

    Good luck.

A Grand Bargain?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have to admit, that sometimes I feel like we’ve waited long enough — let Trump win so we can sort out one way or another if we have the gumption to depose the motherfucker.

I don’t know how that would work out — and it wouldn’t in a way because it would cause a civil war — but I’m growing really frustrated with the idea that MAGA Nazis are always just one election away from turning us into a fascist state.

Having said that, imagine Trump loses.

There is a real chance that Trump will rant about the need for a National Divorce so he, specifically doesn’t go to prison. This raises the interesting issue of how we might placate him so the country doesn’t collapse into horrific violence.

I could imagine a situation where Trump rants about the need for a National Divorce and states like Texas begin to leave the Union. I could see that out of desperation the be a huge amount of pressure put on Biden to pardon Trump for the sake of saving the unity of the country.

But I don’t know. It seems as though that by definition if Trump loses and states begin to call up secessionist conventions it will be quaint to think you could stop that momentum by pardoning him. But I think there’s a chance we all might try in desperation if things got bad enough.

And I can’t predict the future. There is still a chance that somehow, someway, we will muddle through the 2024 election without any of the “hysterical doom shit” I keep worrying about coming true.

But I don’t know…..I’m worried.

The Fire Next Time: Will America’s Possible Collapse Into Civil War / Revolution Mark The First Use Of AI Soldiers?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

When it comes to AI and robotics, I generally think everything is going to suck because of human nature — just like generally, everything sucks with the Internet these days.

So. Lets combine my OTHER dystopian fears — the idea that the USA will soon collapse into civil war / revolution because of fucking Trump.

Wars usually are where a lot of “cutting edge” technology is first used. And, as such, it would make a lot of sense for the first use of “AI soldiers” might be in some sort of post-apocalyptic America where Red and Blue have finally decided to settle their political differences in the streets.

I don’t want anything like that to happen. I’m not advocating anything. I’m just…worried….that we really are totally, completely fucked and AI bots are only going to make a horrible situation even worse.

2025: Tyrant Trump

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There are a few things we have to take into consideration before we think about Trump’s second term. The first is, we have to work on the basic assumption that Trump is simply going to ignore the Supreme Court if they rule in any way he doesn’t like.

So, if he fires several hundred thousand civil servants using his Schedule F idea, then, lulz, he’ll just do it no matter how much SCOTUS rules against him. He will invoke Andrew Jackson and go about his business.

Another issue we have to think about is the total fucking chaos Trump is going to cause when he begins to build out the infrastructure necessary to put millions of undocumented people in concentration camps. Just providing these people with food and housing will be a logistical nightmare.

What’s more, I have serious doubts with the idea that a variety of other people that Trump doesn’t like — everyone from trans people to loudmouth cranks like me — won’t find themselves in any sort of dragnet that Trump begins to employ across the country.

And I’m sure there are all sorts of bonkers counter-revolution things that Trump will do as early as possible in 2025. One key issue for me is if Trump will have the abstract thinking ability to propose a Constitutional Convention that would pass Amendments that would make America a white Christian ethnostate. It could be he will be so stupid that he just announces that he’s going to stay in office the rest of his life because “he deserves it.”

No matter what happens if Trump wins in 2024, we have to accept that the U.S. Military will ultimately decide the country’s fate. If the country collapses into chaos, whomever can convince the U.S. Military to take their side will determine who has power.

Of course, there’s a non-zero chance that not even the U.S. Military will stay stable. It, too, could collapse for a variety of reasons. Then you have WMD that might begin to be lobbed here and there across the country in the context of a global WW3 erupting.

Good times!

I just don’t know what to tell you. It could be that Biden wins and we muddle through another four years. But….I have my doubts.

Counterfactual — What If Mike Pence Had Choked On Jan. 6th?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I don’t really know enough to give you any sort of realistic, detailed counterfactual on what might have happend had Vice President Mike Pence gone along with Trump’s January 6th coup attempt, but let’s do some thinking about it.

The key thing we have to contemplate is how close we came to a civil war on January 6th, 2021. Given what we know of what the coup plotters wanted to do once they got Pence to punt on the certification of Electoral votes….oh boy. It seems as though they believed they wanted to use the extra time to get state Republicans to approve rival Electors that they could use the muddy the waters.

And, remember, there would have been a ticking clock to all of this — January 20th would be just days away. And the moment January 20th rolled around and we STILL didn’t know who POTUS is — especially in the context of the Insurrection Act having been invoked — then, well, it seems clear the country probably would have devolved into chaos.

At this point, it’s possible that the U.S. Military might have stepped in to sort things out. But the point is — Pence bought us all time by destroying his political career and we’ve squandered it.

Now, we’re careening towards a disaster just as big, if not bigger.

Death By Vibes

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One sign that the country is in deep, deep trouble is how the Right has constructed out of whole cloth all these conspiracies about how “woke” corporations are going to do all these horrible things to them at some point in the near future.

It is now gospel within far Right podcasts that unless Trump becomes POTUS again, that “woke” banks will deny them services simply because of their political views. And the list goes on. They have convinced themselves that just by being conservative, the “woke cancel culture mob” is going to destroy their lives and drive they and their families into the streets.

They have only the vaguest proof that this is going to happen. In short — they have vibes.

MEANWHILE, these very same MAGA Republicans totally ignore a growing amount of evidence that suggests that in cold, hard ways all the tyrannical things that Trump plans to do the moment he can. And it’s not like he’s hiding it. All he does is talk about the tyrannical things he wants to do.

Whenever you bring up any of these tyrannical things to a MAGA Republican, they piviot to all the weird conspiracy theories they’ve heard from far Right podcasts about what they believe “woke” corporations are planning to do. They either do that, or they try to mitigate or rationalize out of existence the dangers posed by things like Project 2025 by saying, “I look at Project 2024 and it just looks like a regular policy agenda to me.”

Oh boy.

All of this yet again makes me think about what will happen if Trump goes full tyrant on us in 2025. The key issue is — Trump is so lazy and stupid that he just doesn’t have the political chops to transition the United States into a Russian-style autocracy without there being SOME backlash. Even Putin, who had a tradition of autocracy and a nation in chaos, gradually transitioned the country into an autocracy.

So if Trump goes nuts and goes full tyrant the moment he’s in office again — the shit is going to hit the fan. I can only assume there will be a spectrum of far Right podcasts listeners should this happen.

On one end of the spectrum will be people who are all-in to Trump’s tyranny. They will be proactive Good Germans who cheer on the country’s transition into a white Christian ethnostate — they will be getting what they have longed for and there will, at last, no chance that a “woke” bank will come after them for listening to Joe Rogan.

MEANWHILE, ON THE OTHER END of the spectrum, there will be people who will blanch at the tyranny and chaos that Trump will cause. It is these people that we have to keep an eye on. If these Traditionalists simply sit on their hands should their be a Blue General Strike, then maybe, just maybe, we might be able to depose Trump in some way.

But, plot twist, if that happens, then there probably will be a civil war as Red States leave the Union in rage that Trump has been deposed.

So…lulz?

The Conditions Exist For An Election Catastrophe Starting In Late 2024, Early 2025

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I continue to just not know one way or another what to expect this fall. It definitely SEEMS as though the conditions exist for us to collectively lurch into a dark and uncertain future because of MAGA Nazis.

But, at the moment, I just don’t know.

A lot will depend on how close the election is in the fall. If it’s really close, then, oh boy, buckle up. There would just be too much of a temptation for MAGA Nazis to pull some sort of shenanigans.

But, really even if it’s NOT close, there are no assurances that Trump won’t rant about the need for a National Divorce for the pure personal reason of him not wanting to go prison. The country is primed and ready for us to destroy ourselves on way or another because of “vibes.”

The two sides just don’t like each other and MAGA Nazis, in particular, because of macro changes in culture, thing the center-Left is out to get them. The believe this so much that they often pull some pretty crazy scenarios out of their asses just to justify the absolute worst things they can think of for people who simply don’t agree with them.

A lot will hinge on states like Texas. If Trump loses and he really leans into the idea that conservatives need their own nation so they can be “left alone” then….maybe? Maybe Texas, because of how fascist and autocratic their state Republican Party is, could call up a secessionist convention?

And if Trump wins, it’s not like things are going to be all that peacefully. My key fear is that Trump is so lazy and so fucking stupid that he might go full tyrant on us to the point that he’s deposed in some way, which, in turn would cause….Red States to begin to leave the Union.

As I’ve said before, that leaves the following scenario as the only way we may it out alive in 2024 — Biden wins, Trump rants about the need for a National Divorce and no one listens to him. Then he announces his run for 2028 and we punt all of the structural issues that might cause the greatest nation in the world to collapse because of “vibes” down the road another four years.

The Center Shall Not Hold

Taking Texas’ Threat To Secede Seriously

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The signs are there that one side or the other may collectively decide to start to a National Divorce as part of the 2024 presidential silly season. But, at the moment, it definitely seems as though Reds are far more likely to do it than Blues.

And the one state that seems most likely to secede beginning at some point in late 2024, early 2025 is Texas. The talk of secession is so hot in Texas that a paper in the state wrote an editorial telling people to shut up about it.

The key reason why I believe Texas — then other Red States — might actually pull the trigger on a National Divorce is state Republican Parties are so fucking radical these days on a structural basis, that if the time comes they may actually do it. Damn the consequences.

There are two scenarios whereby I could see Texas — then the rest of Red States — might leave the Union. One is, Trump loses and when he starts to rant about the need for a National Divorce to keep himself out of prison, Red States, starting with Texas then probably South Carolina, will actually take him up on it.

Meanwhile, the OTHER way Texas might begin a National Divorce is if Trump is somehow deposed for going full tyrant after he wins. THEN, I could see Texas leaving the Union, which would prompt other Red States to do the same.

All of this is still very speculative and abstract at the moment. The only reason why I think the country MIGHT collapse into revolution / civil war is they say you go bankrupt gradually then all at once. And all the signs are there that the country is gradually moving towards a level of political instability not seen since the first Civil War.

Of course, it’s very possible that we’ll just drift through this particular situation and nothing of note will happen one way or another. But for that to happen, not only would Biden have to win, but Trump’s rantings about the need for political violence after he lost would have to be ignored.

I just don’t know if we’ll be that lucky.

What Will Indicate We’re Fucked Starting In Late 2024, Early 2025

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I still am not convinced that the worst is going to happen to the United States. There is still enough time for something to happen that will cause us to muddle through the 2024 presidential silly season unharmed. And, yet, I continue to worry that we’re totally and completely fucked.

Here are some events to look for starting in late 2024, early 2025.

The Taking of Trump Tower / Conservative Media
One sign that the country is on the cusp of a civil war / revolution is Trump Tower may be stormed by angry New Yorkers. Also in danger would be the headquarters of the major conservative media outlets in the city. There might even be talk of there being a Free State / City being created in New York City.

Political Rivals Being “Disappeared” by Tyrant Trump

If Trump is elected again, one sign he’s going to hard tyrant route will be him arresting his political rivals on trumped up charged. This, in turn, will cause many, many liberals to flee the country in general because they have the means, motive and opportunity to do so. They will probably first go to Canada, then flee all over the globe, changing the make up of global culture as they do.

Mass Migration

As I mentioned, there is a good chance that if Trump goes nuts and becomes The Red King that many, many smug, wealthy Twitter liberals will flee the country. Meanwhile, depending on how exactly things work out, if there is a National Divorce instead of Trump becoming a Tyrant King, there will be a lot of bouncing around the country as Reds leave Blue States and Blues leave Red States. If you see press reports of that kind of stuff happening — you need to grab your bugout bag.

Secessionist Conventions

If there is some sort of National Divorce — started by either Blues or Reds — keep a look out for Secessionist Conventions to being called up. If Blues leave the Union, I suspect California will be the first to go, while if it’s Reds, it will be Texas. One thing that will be interesting to see — if it’s Reds who leave the Union, how many of the deranged MAGA people in Congress actually leave their cushy jobs in Washington D.C. to join a rebel government?

World War Three
If the United States collapses into chaos, the WW3 is probably going to happen. The entire post WW2 liberal order will collapse and any number of simmering hotspots around the globe will flare up, to the point that at least 1 billion people might die if nuclear weapons are used. And those 1 billion people will die specifically because of Donald Trump.