Category: Tsar-A-Largo

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

In just the last few hours, there’s been a shift in the current crisis surrounding the war. A lot depends on how rational Putin is. If he’s rational, then he sues for peace at the negotiating table tomorrow European time. If he’s not, then he takes things to the next level and begins to burn Ukraine to the ground to the point that WMD of some sort are used.

Logically, this is over. Logically, the Russians realize what a dumb idea this entire endeavor has been and they return to status quo ante borders. That is definitely what should happen.

But will it?

The next few hours will be telling. A lot will depend on how badly the Russians want to be prove a point before tomorrow’s negotiations on the Belarusian border.

Just from what I can tell from Twitter, we’re in a very unstable crisis in Europe at the moment. And a lot depends on what’s going on in the mind of Putin. He really has all of our fates in his hands at the moment. If he backs down then all eyes turn to the domestic Russian reaction.

If he doesn’t back down, then we have a real problem on our hands. Because then, logically, Putin decides to go full Gotterdammerung on us and burns Ukraine to the ground like he did Chechnya. He could use WMD in various forms on Ukrainian cities and THAT would prompt five to seven million Ukrainians to leave the country.

Europe is already pretty much full of refugees at the moment, so all those people would likely be forced to head to North America. Such a huge influx of people into the politics of the USA and Canada might have some pretty astonishing and unexpected consequences.

Many of these Ukrainians would be highly trained and highly educated and for the purposes of starting a new life in North America might take jobs that citizens otherwise would not take. There is a least a small possibility that if this happened to a huge scale that some — but not all — of the macro trends that lead to MAGA might be abated to some extent.

But that is very speculative.

I will suggest that the next day or so will be crucial to this crisis. It all depends on what the Russians — and specifically Putin — do. No matter what, though, I fear Russia itself is primed to be extremely, extremely unstable. The jig is up for Putin one way or another.

It’s just a matter of time now.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

State of Play, as of about February 26, 2022

Things are very curious right now in Ukraine. I say this because we’ve reach the point where it is clear that whatever reasoning Putin used to start the Russo-Ukrainian Winter War clearly is not working out.

So, we’re at something of an impasse.

Logically, Putin would sue for peace and retreat back to status quo ante borders (maybe even giving Crimea back to Ukraine.) But we don’t know for a fact that Putin is still a rational actor. He could be bonkers. And we are still just in the early days of the war.

So where does that leave us?

Well, I think we have to take seriously the idea that Something Bad might happen that would escalate the situation in Ukraine significantly. It’s possible that the Russians would use thermobaric rockets on major Ukrainian cities and burn them to the ground, much like what they did to Chechnya. This would make an already serious situation even worse, but it would likely give the Russians the quick fix of some significant victories.

And then there is the idea that Putin has really lost his mind and he might use some form of tactical nuclear weapon (or WMD in general) on the Ukrainians. That would greatly, and I do mean greatly, aggravate the situation. But, in real terms, NATO and the USA wouldn’t do anything. They would get really, really mad, but they wouldn’t do anything.

The consequences of the Russians using some form of WMD on Ukraine out of desperation would be unexpected and long lasting. Ukrainians would be enraged and there might be a spontaneous revolution / civil war in Russia. And, who knows, once the slice the seal on using WMD, China might think they could get away with using them on Taiwan.

And that doesn’t even begin to address the situation with the DPRK and ROK. It would be a real new geopolitical world, one that was dark and as uncertain as the interwar period that led the WW2. Add to this that the United States is tearing itself apart and facing the existential choice of autocracy or civil war in 2024 – 2025, and, well, lulz.

So, something’s gotta give. One way or another, things are going to change. I suppose things might continue the way they are going if the Russians managed some sort of major breakout, but that remains to be seen if that is still even possible.

Pray.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I love to run scenarios, that’s my thing. So, let’s run the following scenario — Putin, frustrated with the lack of progress in the Russo-Ukrainian Winter War, decides to break the nearly 80-year-old taboo against using nuclear weapons. Now, I find it highly unlikely that even bonkers Putin would use a traditional tactical nuke.

More likely, he would use a very small nuke, a low-grade nuke, which would be more like a MOAB with a radioactive footprint than an actual tactical nuke. The question is, if he did it, what would be the consequences?

Given that Ukraine doesn’t have its own nukes and NATO / USA would be extremely reluctant to get involved after such a thing, all that would likely happen is a more extreme version of what’s already going on. The real question is not so much what would happen to Russia, as it is what would happen to Ukraine.

The Ukrainian people have already shown they’re badasses and I think after the initial shock wore off, that things would go from bad to worse for Russian forces attempting to occupy the country. The rage that the general Ukrainian population would feel at even low-grade nukes being used on them would be as white hot as the sun. As such, what Putin might think is his fail safe, would likely only hasten his own demise.

I say that because everyday Russians are just humans like you and me. And any problems Putin face in real terms for using low-grade nukes would likely come from a huge swell of revulsion on their part. That would be the thing that would be Putin’s ultimate punishment for doing something so stupid.

I don’t think Putin would do this nightmarish thing, but it is something to think about. Russians aren’t exactly known for playing nice when they don’t get what they want militarily. So, be prepared for some dark days ahead.

And one last thing — once the taboo about using nukes is broken, there are plenty of other nations that might suddenly think they, too, can use them to solve long-term geopolitical problems. China taking Taiwan is a lot easier if they can do the “love tap” of a few tactical nukes during the invasion process. Don’t get me started about the DPRK and ROK.

Oh boy.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Russia’s current tactics in Ukraine don’t make much sense. The Ukrainians still have electricity and Internet access and who, exactly, has control of the air is up for debate.

All of this is even more curious when you remember what the Russians did to Chechnya over the course of two wars there.

As such, it seems possible that the worst has yet to come. It could be that Russia may be willing to burn the entirety of Ukraine to the ground to achieve its goals. Of course, there would be dramatic consequences for both Ukraine, Russia and the world if this happened. I continue to be nervous about the potential use of the Russian equivalent of the American MOAB if they can’t get what they want. Or, worse yet, low-grade tactical nukes.

And, yet, we don’t know if Putin is still a rational actor or not. It could be that he’s now so bonkers that he’s willing to destroy everything simply to get what he wants — Ukraine under the Russian jackboot.

But only time will tell. It could be that this is about to be wrapped up. It could be that Putin will give up far sooner than we might otherwise think. Then, of course, there’s the risk of massive instability within Russia itself. Russians do tend to have major, historical shifts in government because of war defeats.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Let me be clear — I don’t know anything. You should probably just aggressively ignore my opinion on this matter. But I do have opinions, nonetheless. And it definitely seems as though at least the Biden Administration believes that we have one more sleep until Something Big happens between Ukraine and Russia. Maybe even the biggest war in Europe since WW2. (Though, in all fairness, it’s probably the biggest war since the ’68 crushing of Prague Spring.)

Anyway, it’s at least possible that whatever is going to happen is going to begin just as the Olympics are wrapping up in China tomorrow evening. So, it could be that Sunday, February 20th is D-Day. Or not. I’ve decided that anytime between now and roughly February 22nd would be the “sweetspot” for an attack if it’s going to happen.

Or maybe it’s not going to happen at all.

But it definitely SEEMS as though Something Big and Something Bad is going to happen very, very soon. I still have my doubts that much, if any, of the things we’re all that worried about at the moment will make it through the “vibe shift” that a major land war in Europe would entail.

Only time will tell.