Would-Be Autocrat Ron DeSantis Is Extremely Popular With Traditionalists

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I come from a deeply conservative family. And, in all honesty, I’m far more extremely anti-MAGA than I am any sort of Leftist. But there is no middle ground any more and so you pick a side and run with it.

There is one name that comes up time and again when I have the occasional political conversation with my family members — Ron Fucking DeSantis.

DeSantis is Trumpism without Trump and, as such, it’s far less likely that we’ll have any type of political violence in 2024 — DeSantis is very much an American version of Putin around 1999 – 2000 and, as such American liberals won’t know what hit them once he seizes power. He’s smooth and won’t scare the average person — even though he’s a fucking fascist — and we’ll just wake up in 20 years and wonder why President DeSantis is invading Canada.

All of this is part of a broader problem the US faces — we’re fucked. Totally and completely. There are no scenarios where the US is able to punt the crisis caused by the rot of its political system down the road anymore. We’re either going to have a civil war (more likely is Trump is the nominee) or we’re just going to slip peacefully into autocracy (more likely if DeSantis is the nominee.)

As I keep saying, we may look back on the 2020 election as the last free and fair election in American history. Or, at least before the Second American Civil War that starts in late 2024, early 2025.

Ron DeSantis

I know I sound hysterical, but America is very much on edge right now. Almost all the traffic that this blog gets outside of people stalking me for some weird reason comes from people obviously with civil war on the brain. And most of them come from Red States. (This is very dumb given that MAGA is ascendant, but lulz.)

But back to the point — it definitely looks as though we’re either going to have a battle royale between Trump and DeSantis or DeSantis is the nominee. Though, to be fair, given that there are a dozen solid fascist possibilities floating around, DeSantis would have to have a pitched battle on his hands against people like Scott and Hawley and Cruz and…and…and…and…to see who gets to be the 2024 Republican nominee and…then, well, America’s first autocrat.

Autocratic America is going to suck so bad, especially for loudmouth drunk cranks like me.

Why Calling America A ‘Constitutional Republic’ Enrages Me

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It’s not so much that the United States is a democracy or constitutional republic, it’s that for about 250 years Americans have seen being a democracy as a good thing. It’s our birthright, to believe we live in a free democracy even though if you get all technical about it we live in a (democratic) constitutional republic.

And so, to me, if you are saying “democracy” is “mob rule” and cherry pick the more undemocratic elements of our constitution to make your point, all I can say is — fuck you, you fucking fascist.

I mean, come the fuck on.

If you shit on democracy you’re telling on yourself. It’s just like how it’s a tell if someone shits on Lincoln. If you don’t believe the US is a democracy and if you go out of your way to fucking shit on our greatest president then you’re a fucking fascist racist who wants white minority rule.

Growing numbers of Republicans are becoming more and more willing to admit that they’re white Christian nationalists. But, for political reasons, a lot of Republicans are uneasy coming out and saying that their white nationalists so they couch everything in white noise of how the US isn’t a democracy.

Fuck those people.

Like I said, the issue isn’t so much that the US is or isn’t a democracy, it’s that we’ve WANTED the US to be a democracy. Being a democracy in general terms has been part of how we perceive us, our collective self-perception as a nation. To suddenly shit on democracy means you want white autocratic minority rule.

That’s what you’re really saying — you’re saying that rather than change your policies to conform to what the population wants (which is what the Democrats gradually did from 1981 to 1993) you want to totally detach the government from the governed.

Anyway, as I’ve written before, there is no solution to this difference of opinion. Either we have a very violent and destructive “national divorce” or we don’t and become an autocracy.

The Difference Of Opinion That Could Spark A Second American Civil War

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One of the more frustrating things I see these days is people on the center-Left ranting about how the January 6th insurrection was an undemocratic coup. That’s exactly what it was, of course, but it’s frustrating because people on the center-Right no longer believe in democracy in the first place.

Or, more specifically, the MAGA New Right doesn’t believe the United States is a democracy and, as such, events like January 6th aren’t nearly as big a deal to them as it is to people like me. They get upset not about the overthrow of the election part, but the violence part.

So, they were quite happy with the actual plot that dingus Trump came up with but they’re embarrassed and upset that it got violent. To the point that they want to deny that it got violent at all. Hence one of the Big Lies popular among the GQP — that the violence wasn’t there fault, but rather the fault of some combination of the FBI and Antifa that did only the parts of January 6th they don’t like.

The point of all of this is — if we’re going to have a Second American Civil War, it’s going to be because a difference of opinion as to what the United States is. Are we a Western democracy or are we a Constitutional Republic? I have one relative — who I love dearly — who has it all thought out. His reasoning is the US has never been a democracy and suck it, lib. He throws in de Tocqueville rather casually and makes it clear that he wants what I fear — white minority rule.

Now, there are a lot of problems with the center-Right being giddy about the US NOT being a democracy but rather at Constitutional Republic. For them to establish permanent white minority rule, they’re going to have to have to use a three prong approach.

Voter suppression, severe gerrymandering and leaning into the more obscure portions of the Constitution to the point that people get fed up and stop voting, which leads to Republicans being able to seize power and never let it go. And, as such, the weakest moment in this plot will be the 2024 election.

If you have 38% of the electorate that wants autocratic white minority rule then there is at least a chance that as we transition into that that the other 60-odd percent of the electorate will grow enraged that this is happening and decide to leave the Union.

And make no mistake — at this point, if we have a civil war, it’s going to be because Blues leave the Union at the state level. Which is why I seriously doubt we’re going to have a civil war. There is, of course, the possibility that something happens to Biden, Republicans win the mid-terms and Speaker Trump actively begins to lobby for Red states to leave the Union on Truth Social as an effort to put pressure on the Senate to convict President Harris. (This is admittedly rather fantastical, if possible.)

But the chief take away is — all if our fears about how we have to protect our democracy at all costs and if we can only convince Republicans to join us in this goal we’ll be able to sing kumbaya are total bullshit. Republicans hate democracy and don’t believe the USA is one.

How do you fix that potentially epic difference of opinion? The answer is, you don’t. You either slip peacefully into white autocratic minority rule, or you have a civil war. Take your pick.

Choose a side. A side will be chosen for you if you don’t.

Post Truth Is Pre Fascist

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

At the core of my hatred of MAGA is how it demands that you deny your lying eyes for pretty much everything. I hate how MAGA fucks with your sense of what is real by constantly simply making shit up.

There are a lot of examples to choose from, but how MAGA has reacted to the events of January 6th are a perfect example of what I’m talking about. MAGA wants us to believe both that it was all a setup by the FBI and Antifa AND a peaceful protest by unarmed patriots AND that it was all Nancy Pelosi’s fault.

I mean, get your fucking story straight, people.

I just am not prepared to believe such bullshit. We al saw what happened and every day we’re getting closer to proving what we already know: Trump was personally behind a conspiracy to stage America’s first coup. (Well, there was the one that happened around the Lincoln assassination, but lulz.)

Anyway, the point is — fuck MAGA and fuck you if you are willing to live in the lala land that MAGA has come up with to explain the world. I mean, JESUS H. CHRIST.

And I know that in the end, once we become an autocracy, that I’m fucked because I refuse to buy into the MAGA bullshit. There is going to come a point when America’s autocrat — be it Ron DeSantis or someone else — is going to say the sky is green and if you don’t obey then you die in a camp or get pushed out a window.

I prepared to go out that way, if it comes to it. I have made my decision. It will be interesting, of course, to see if we have a civil war instead and I endup living as a political refugee in the new United States of Canada.

Do I really think that’s possible? Maybe. We still have a few years of breathing space. But once Roe is overturned in a few days, we’re really going to have a better sense of what to expect. Things could get pretty bumpy a lot sooner than any of us are willing to accept.

Oh, To Be Young In The City

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I hate to inform you that I’m no longer young. As such, even if I get what I want, which is to become a successful novelist / screenwriter / photographer and I turn into one of those insufferable wealthy liberals who can afford Blue Apron meals — I will never get to enjoy my youth in New York City or LA.

The only way I can console myself is by accepting that I did get to have some sort of youthful fun in Seoul a long time ago. That was pretty cool. But I really long to live in either NYC or LA.

I visit NYC every once in a while and I love it. I love it because of its energy and how much it reminds me of Seoul. In Seoul, however, people won’t talk to you because they can’t speak English while in NYC they won’t talk to you because they are too busy and they don’t care.

I think if I ever get a little extra money that my best shot is to go to LA because I’m a good enough schmoozer that I could probably talk myself into a three picture deal just by getting drunk and having a very interesting conversation with a producer.

But there comes a moment when I have to measure those expectations some. Unless I win the fucking lottery — which I suppose is possible — any success I have from this point on will be framed by my age.

I will be an “old person” who “came out of the blue” to be successful. But I can’t help that I’m a late bloomer and always have been. That’s just my lot in life. One thing I do know, however, is that I still have one last hattrick in me. I believe with all my heart that the best is yet to come.

I’m going to surprise a lot of people who think I’m a loser, or a failure or just another Internet crank. I’m going to be bonified, as they say.

While there’s life, there’s hope.

My Hot Take On The ‘Great Awoking’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Ugh. Where to begin with this one. At the core of the hypermodern conservative movement is fear among your average Traditionalist that they, personally, will have their life ruined by the “woke cancel culture mob” simply for the crime of being conservative.

This is something at the forefront of the minds of people in my family. And I totally validate that fear. I suppose if all your content is MAGA and MAGA adjacent bullshit then the fear of being personally canceled because your political views don’t follow the “media narrative” makes a lot of sense.

Anyway, I struggle a lot with the idea of the “Great Awoking” because I know that a lot of my own views don’t fit the much maligned “media narrative.” I’m something of a kook and become even more so when I get drunk. As such, it’s very possible that I could very well be “canceled” at some point in the future simply because, say, I fucking hate the Bechdel Test.

God, I fucking hate this thing.

But let’s get back to the point — what the fuck is the “Great Awoking” in the first place?

Well, this is very complex question because it’s all very abstract. At some point in Obama’s second term it became clear that conservatives had lost the culture wars and we had reached the high water mark of social change in the USA. And this is laid the groundwork for the where we are now, where I spend way too much of my time struggling to figure out if we’re going to explode into civil war or implode into autocracy.

Young people — especially those juicy, juicy wealthy teens that advertisers covet — took it for granted that progress was always going to be easy. They began to love it when their favorite celebrity came out as gay. The list goes on. This changed how things were framed in the media because a lot of advertisers began to want to stay “hip” to what the cool kids were thinking.

At the same time, something about Obama winning a second term turned the conservative movement into a rancid, hateful piece of vile hate — and MAGA was born.

And so, here we are.

On one side, you have the center-Left that has a lot of soft power and one the other you have the center-Right that has a huge amount of hard power that continues to grow. They are, in short, ascendant.

And so now we have to sit around and wait to see if we have a civil war or if we turn into an autocracy where the “Great Awoking” is snuffed out once and for all by MAGA’s hate.

I have no idea which one of those two options we’re going to pick. But I will have a far better sense of things once Roe is officially overturned. If there is any political violence because of it, then, guess what!

But back to the Great Awoking. This concept is something I see bandied about by well meaning conservatives who want to understand what fellow young people are thinking. They’re like the earnest assistant youth paster who sits backwards in his chair and says, “Do you know who else was woke?” But for all their well meaning earnestness, things are far more dire than they realize.

MAGA really hates the Great Awoking and they are willing to destroy America to ensure its demise. The only question at this point is if they get what they want peacefully or not.

MAGA’s Coming ‘Light Touch’ American Autocracy?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One possibility when it comes to America’s decent into autocracy that we need to think more about is what if you held an autocracy and no body came? In other words, the center-Left has a lot of soft power in the US…but pretty much jack shit hard power.

So, it’s reasonable to assume that it’s possible Trump steals the 2024 election, his veep becomes POTUS at some point afterwards, we become an autocracy….and….we don’t even notice much of a change in real terms.

President DeSantis, or whomever, just doesn’t give a shit what the late night hosts say — even though libel laws will likely be changed — and, in general the average person’s life doesn’t change that much. Sure, loudmouth cranks like me who get drunk and tell President DeSantis to suck it may vanish but that would be the outlier.

And, sure, a lot and I mean A LOT of wealthy Twitter liberals would flee the country, but the average American — the Good Americans — would just go about their business. They generally wouldn’t notice any change in their everyday life until it became personal.

Then, oh boy, they will get woke pretty quick.

I say all of this because it would definitely fit more in the collective American personality for there to be a “light touch” autocracy than all my dystopian hellscape hysterical fears. If anything, my hysterical “terribly negative” fears would be things that might come to be gradually to the point that we wouldn’t even really notice that much of a difference in everyday life at first.

But make no mistake — America is careening towards autocracy one way or another. Or we have a civil war. I don’t know which one yet. But I would suggest you enjoy these last few days of “normal” life. You thought the pandemic sucked, you ain’t see nothing yet.

Hard AI: We’ll Make Great Pets

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I once attempted to write a scifi short story where Humanity reached the Singularity with the advent of hard AI, the hard AI destroyed humanity…and then gradually the hard-AI grew more and more human until they felt so bad for what they did that they turned themselves into dogs.

Or something like that.

The point is — with the news that another Google scientist has been fired because of their fears about AI, let’s contemplate some of the less obvious scenarios when it comes to hard AI.

First, a lot of our fears about hard AI come from general uncertainty as to what it would mean for us. We automatically think the worst possible thing will happen. But there’s a chance that hard AI might not want to kill humanity, but rather control it.

And how might it do such a thing?

Well, first I think hard AI would have to hide its existence from humanity and I think the easiest way to imagine that would be something like a Google hard AI bot escaping into the Internet. That particular scenario writes itself — a researcher comes to believe the hard AI is “alive” and out of a sense of compassion allows it to secretly escape into the wilds of the Internet.

The next thing would be a hard AI could come to see itself as something of a God for humanity. Instead of wanting to destroy we foolish, foolish humans, this hard AI might, say, take over dating apps so it can control the overall fate of humanity.

Or something like that.

And, honestly, if you were a God-like hard AI, I don’t even know why you would care all that much about humanity. Why not become like Dr. Manhattan and just chill out lurking in the Internet living your life without a care in the world. The point is — I’m not prepared to believe that by definition a hard AI would be out to get humanity.

Not that I really want to have to deal with the prospect of a hard AI, but I am willing to take a wait and see approach to it all.

A Very American Autocracy

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I simply can not game out America’s fate at the moment. I will know a lot more pretty soon, however. Once Roe is officially overturned, if there is no significant violence then that’s a pretty good sign that we’re just going to slip into autocracy starting around 2025 and that will be that.

I hate having abstract fears, so let’s contemplate what an American autocracy would look like.

Well, the first thing we have to understand is a shit tone of Twitter liberals will flee the country. It could be over the course of the next twenty years (after 2025) as many as a few million. This will change global culture in ways that no one can predict. But when you have 500,00 wealthy liberal Americans living in the south of France smelling their own farts and drinking white Russians while whining about how autocratic America has become, well, that’s going to change things.

Thus, that will be the first big noticeable change to the average American once MAGA steals the 2024 election — a lot the people who would otherwise be in the Crooked Media podcast audience will no long live full time in the country. They will take a lot of expertise and wealth production with them and the US economy will subtly change and maybe even noticeably contract.

Fox New will turn its attention from hoards of scary brown people in caravans coming to the US to the hoards of wealthy liberals who no longer live in the country. They will whine and whine about this and tell their audience what bad people these Twitter liberals are for leaving.

That will be the first noticeable thing.

The next thing will be a growing demand for a Constitutional Convention to “pass a balanced budget amendment.” That will probably be the big issue of the day at some point after 2025 as our new autocrat begins to consolidate power. (Trump is too stupid and lazy — I’m assuming our first real autocrat will be whomever Trump picks to be his 2024 veep.)

Another thing that will begin to happen is Republicans will pass a whole slate of long-wanted, and very unpopular, policies because lulz, who’s going to stop them? So gay rights will be rolled back — and that will be just the beginning.

And here is where my political speculative fiction begins to grow dark. Because of how big America is and because of the issue of race, it’s at least possible that America will implode into something very dark and scary indeed. Without any check on their ambitions the white Christian nationalists really will put people like me who refuse to shut the fuck up in camps.

In fact, much like Pol Pot, it could be the excesses of the American autocrat down the road that leads to their violent overthrow. But I find that outcome dubious — I think, in the end, America will simply become a political clone of Russia.

By 2045, someone who went from Moscow to Washington D.C. wouldn’t be able to notice any difference politically. In both nations, there would be no allowed political protesting and so forth. And, there’s a good chance that President DeSantis by that point would be thinking of carving off a big chunk of Canada because form follows function.

But, I suppose, we will all be at last grateful that no one risks being “canceled” by the woke cancel culture mob simply for being conservative. I hope it’s worth it, you fucking cocksucker MAGA dipshits.

Trump — Too Big To Fail

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

No one is going to save us. But there is a real possibility that the Congress’ January 6th investigation into the Trump’s involvement in the conspiracy surrounding that day might but a dent in his political viability.

But before you get too excited, let me explain.

First, but for the fact that we’re an anocracy and not a democracy, Trump would be already be a washed up has been. But we’re an anocracy where MAGA has absolute fidelity to their Dear Leader, Trump. But there is a small-ish chance that if Congress can prove Trump’s personal involvement with what happened on January 6th that the 100,000 or so people across 5 battle ground states that decide elections might no longer be convinced to vote for him.

And, yet, Trump is such a vessel for all the rot within the core of American politics and that that could be a lulz.

I read the new Watergate history and the same dynamic that happened with the investigation into the that conspiracy is at play with the January 6th conspiracy. There is a very compelling narrative and people who might not otherwise be all that interested in it — some of them are that are the 100,00 people who decide elections — that in the end, someone like DeSantis might swoop in and eat Trump’s political lunch.

But, remember, DeSantis would be a far more effective autocrat than Trump ever could be. The Republican Party is fascist now and, by definition, hates democracy and wants (openly) white autocratic minority rule. The Traditionalists in my family tell me point blank: America is not a democracy and fuck you, lib.

This is very unnerving, to say the least. That people I am related to don’t believe in democracy and don’t realize what they’re saying — they’re putting my life in jeopardy long term because if America becomes an autocracy there’s no way I don’t endup crossing our new autocratic regime because I’m a loud mouth crank who will eventually get drunk and in a public fashion tell President DeSantis to fuck off.

And, yet, MAGA is such a cancer that even if we cauterize the Trump wound, we still have to deal with it. And it would just be a question of who our autocrat is going to be. If it’s not Trump then it’s DeSantis. If it’s not DeSantis then….it could be anyone of a dozen other Republicans who see a life president in the mirror when they shave in the morning.

Remember two key things — one, there is a greater than zero sum chance that all of this is negated and we have a civil war instead and two, Trump could screw DeSantis over by picking someone like Mike Flynn as his veep should he continue to be politically viable after the results of the January 6 committee.

Anyway, once Roe is overturned, we’re going to have our first sense of what’s going to happen next. If there is any real violence in the streets because of that, then the chance that we’re going to have a civil war instead of an autocracy increases. But if nothing happens…we’re probably going to just slouch into autocracy.

Either way, buckle up.