Here’s what I think is going to happen. Through hook or by crook, Trump is going to “win” the 2024 presidential election. (The obvious caveats about things happening I can’t predict apply, of course.) Then Trump pushes through Schedule F and fires about 50,000 civil servants, even though he can’t. He simply assumes “the courts” will figure it out and does it anyway.
Now, here’s one major datapoint I can’t figure out — who is Trump going to pick to be his veep? This is something I struggle with on a near-daily basis. I just can’t figure out who Trump would pick as his veep. He is so unpredictable and mercurial that he could pick nearly anyone.
Trump could go with someone on the crazy spectrum of things and pick someone like Gen. Mike Flynn. Or he could go “sane” but fascist, with someone like Josh “Runway, Runaway” Hawley. There is, of course, a small chance he might pick someone like Lara Trump or Ivanka Trump just to be weird. If it’s either one of those women, then you would have the setup for a “Velvet Fist” situation where they ostensibly run the country while their loathsome veep rules the country behind the throne. I just don’t know.
But I do know that whomever he picks will be the person who ultimately the person who transitions us into a full-blown autocracy. There is a chance that Trump will try to be America’s Putin and will destroy as much of the country as he can in the process, but he is old and the real fight at the moment is the struggle to curry favor with Trump an ambitious would-be autocrat can be Trump’s successor.
Anyway, once Trump shuffles off this mortal coil, then the “fun” begins. We will lurch rather dramatically into either a Russian style autocracy or a Nazi style autocracy. It’s going to be scary and dramatic. And all of my hysterical scenarios and predictions for 2017 – 2021 will just happen at some point after 2025.
There are some other things that might upset our transition into a Nazi-style autocratic state. One is, the USA is very big and diverse. If it’s Gen. Flynn who is suddenly president upon Trump’s demise, then, oh boy. He’s so nuts and so craven that it could be HE, not TRUMP who, unto himself, starts a civil war.
Anyway, the real trouble is going to begin should the autocrat — whomever they may be — gets ahead of the curve and begins to do things that people in the United States aren’t prepared for. What those things might be, I don’t know. But the whole thing is going to be a clusterfuck.
It’s bonkers to me that the average American is so oblivious to the rise of fascism in the United States. It’s like we just don’t care. All the signs are there that we’re careening towards an autocratic fascist state…and yet there doesn’t seem to be much alarm. Some of it, of course, is that it’s difficult for the average person to wrap their minds around the idea that one of the two major parties in the United States now no longer believes in democracy.
And, what’s even worse is, a lot of people who should know better — mainly major publicans like The New York Times — seem hell bent on both-sideizing our democracy into oblivion. They just can’t accept that one side is bad and fascist — the Republican side and one side is trying to defend democracy, the Democrat side.
It will be interesting to see what might happen if we have a civil war. Will The New York Times, at last, be willing to call a spade a space? Will they become radical moderates once there’s battlefield action taking place? I don’t know. I hope so.
Anyway, things are going to get pretty bumpy in the US pretty soon. It will be quite ironic if, say, Trump becomes Speaker of the House about 90 years after Hitler became Chancellor. It’s really going to be interesting to see how alarmed the rather blase, oblivious people in the United States will finally become when it’s clear that Republicans in power will, by definition, mean the end of democracy in the United States.
But for a sizable portion of the population, democracy is very pase. They want a white Christian ethno state. They’re going to get it, too. Then all hell will break loose and we all will have no one to blame but ourselves. Here’s what a America will look like when the Bad Guys win:
The Great Liberal Brain Drain When it becomes clear that we’re no longer a democracy, probably at some point in late 2024 to early 2025, many, many, many wealthy liberals are simply going to leave the country. In fact, it could become so bad that the very people who crow about, “If you don’t like it, then leave” will be the very people who suddenly freak the fuck out when this very thing happens. We’re going to go from Fox screaming hysterically about scary brown people in caravans headed towards the border to them complaining constantly about how liberals are leaving the country. At first, of course, they will be gloat and be full of glee at this prospect….until it gets to the point that even they realize the economic impact of this happening and all they will do is complain about how wealthy liberals are fleeing to the south of France (or wherever). But make no mistake about it — it’s going to happen. The moment it’s clear we’re an autocracy, wealthy liberals will flee the United States en masse.
The Passage Of The Republican Agenda At some point after 2025 when Republicans know the coast is clear, Republicans are going to abolish the Senate filibuster and cram threw their entire agenda that they’ve been hoping to pass the last few decades. ACA will be gone. Abortion will be banned in all the states. Social Society, Medicaid and Medicare will be gutted, “reformed” and privatized. Taxes for plutocrats will be lowered, while the poor will have to start to “pay their fair share.” There may be a lot of protesting, but, just like with Russia, ultimately…lulz, nothing matters.
Plutocrats Will End The Liberal Media If what happened to Russia is any indication, at some point after 2025, we will begin to see MAGA-friendly plutocrats begin to buy and otherwise make huge investments in Disney, NBCUniversal, Paramount, etc to the point that in a subtle way the idea of there being a “liberal media” will begin to seem quite quaint. And what our new fascist overlords can’t get that way, they will get via brute force — they will threaten harsh regulations and broadcast companies licensing. I would suggest you keep an eye on things like The New York Times and PBS as well. If somehow, magically, The New York Times is sold to, say, Elon Musk and you look at PBS Newshour and is identical to Hannity then, well, America is an autocracy.
A Constitutional Convention Now, this is where a lot of people who still believe in the system, believe that all we have to do is wait for the Justice Department to indict about two dozen people and we’re all going to be saved — I’m looking at you Mueller, She Wrote — will think I’m being “terribly negative.” But we’re already just a few states away from a Constitutional Convention being called and one of the long-term goals of the MAGA New Right is for this to happen to “pass a balanced budget amendment.” But given how such a convention would be populated — by people selected by state legislatures — it’s very, very, very easy to imagine that the moment it convenes, it will go rouge and decide to dramatically change the Constitution. The MAGA New Right agenda will be codified in the Constitution and things like birthright citizenship, a weak executive and God only knows what else will be gone. That will be the central political issue of the day at some point after we’re finally no longer a democracy. And all the bullshit gaslighting that Republicans have been using for decades will be used to get it all passed. And the center-Left is just too weak, so, lulz, we’re fucked.
The Weaponization of The ICE Infrastructure As all of this is going on, the already existent ICE infrastructure will be weaponized so loudmouth crank drunks like me will find themselves in a lot of hot water. And, given that I, by nature, just can’t shut up, I fully expect that in the end I’m probably going to die in an ICE camp. Or something. Something bleak and dark.
The curious thing about the rise of fascism in the United States at the moment is we’re not going through any sort of depression. The major stressor that we’re experiencing is the rise of fascist MAGA itself. It’s all very curious. And, yet, here we are.
Growing numbers of people are willful in their desire to give up their American democratic birthright. They go so far as to make it very clear that they don’t even think the United States is a democracy in the first place! So we find ourselves drifting towards an illiberal democracy — if we’re lucky. If we’re not lucky, we’re going to be a cold, hard autocratic state.
At the moment, the very things that are pushing us towards an illiberal democracy will push us into something more in line with Russia or Nazi Germany. And I would go so far as to say Nazi Germany makes a lot more sense given that racism is generating the energy for our transformation into an autocracy in the first place.
Now, some context.
I don’t think the average American realizes how radical the Republican Party has become. They’re too busy raising their kids, paying their mortgage and paying their taxes to realize what’s going on. And, as such, there are two possible outcomes when we final transition into an autocracy — civil war or the side is peacefully because we just don’t care.
I, at the moment, don’t think we’re going to have a civil war. I think a lot of liberals — at least 1 million — will flee the country and that will be that. Then all of the hysterical predictions I made about a the first Trump Administration will happen, only four years later than I expected. I say this, especially with the idea of Trump’s pet Schedule F concept being developed for his second term.
I think the slouching into autocracy is a pretty good bet. But if you want my idea as to what a civil war would be like, an extensive scenario is below.
Here are some reasons why we will have a civil war.
Republicans have come to glorify political violence Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
Republicans no longer believe in democracy It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely destabilizing things that help push the country to the brink.
Trump 2024 Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
Steve K Bannon. Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that weuse to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
Extreme negative polarization We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
A lack of shared values As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.
And, honestly, the only thing standing in the way of an autocrat becoming president in 2025 and seizing “total control” pretty quick is any potential cleaving between MAGA and the Republican Party that takes place between now and then.
Given what I’m seeing right now, it definitely doesn’t seem as though that’s going to be a problem. At this point, it seems as though Republicans will first win power in Congress in 2022, then win the presidency (one way or anther) in 2024 and that will be that.
The autocracy we feared during the Trump Era will come, just four years later than we all expected. But…
There’s a real chance that our transition from liberal democracy to autocracy won’t be as smooth as I think — there could be a civil war. One side — or the other — won’t accept the results of the election and the country will finally buckle. All the nightmare scenarios that I came up with in 2020-2021, will just happen in 2024-2025.
If what happened in 2020 is any indication, the first sign that we would have that something was amiss would be on the local level. Instead of people who simply do their job as Americans and do the rather perfunctory duty of certifying the win of A Democrat, this doesn’t happen. In crucial voting districts all across swing states, Bannon’s “spiritual shock troops” either refuse to certify the win of A Democrat, or they go so far as to YOLO things and switch the win to Trump.
As this happens, the tension in United States escalates day by day. The very rallying cry of MAGA in 2020 — “Stop The Steal” will be adopted by the center-Left when it becomes clear that the MAGA New Right is hell bent on brazenly stealing the 2024 election in broad daylight.
But remember, the center-Left has a very different personality than the MAGA New Right. The center-Left, for all it’s problems with “cancel culture” and being “woke” is still actually connected to reality. So, there would be a struggle between the natural inclination of centrist Liberals to let the “process work” and Leftists who would want to burn everything to the ground given how corrupted everything had become.
All of this turmoil on the local level would find elections in crucial states thrown into the political realm where MAGA state legislatures and Secretary’s of State would begin to actively ensure that A Democrat is prevented from winning. Every day between Election Day 2024 and Certification Day 2025 things would grow more and more unstable in the United States as it became clear that Bannon’s long-planned “administrative coup” was actually going to work.
There would be mass confusion. Lots of lawsuits
And, remember, if Trump is involved, as all of this is going on, he would do everything in his personal power to rile up both sides. If his ongoing, progressive cognitive decline has gotten bad enough, he might even go transactional.
It would be around this point that I could see Blue governors begin to make serious plans to leave the Union. A lot would depend on what California was willing to do. But it would definitely make sense that California would be the first state to call a Secessionist Convention in preparation of leaving the Union if the 2024 election is, in fact, stolen.
But by some point between Thanksgiving and Christmas, you could see some sort of summit of Blue Governors where they debate their plans to leave the Union if the very thing that the MAGA New Right wants — to turn the United States into an autocracy — actually happens.
And as we approached Certification Day in January 2025, the last step in the crisis would happen. If you thought Certification Day 2021 was bad, just wait until Republicans are actively going over and above what they did then when it rolls around in 2025. So, the system will have been corrupted at both the local and state level. And then if that doesn’t work, Republicans will again try to throw the election into the House and Senate to buy time, if nothing else.
So, let me be clear — anyone who thinks we’re going to have some sort of MAGA New Right revolution a la The Turner Diaries — is a fool. Any Second American Civil War we have is probably going to be started by Blue States leaving the Union out of disgust that the fix is in.
Therefore, by the time Certification Day 2025 rolls around, it could very well be a foregone conclusion that we’re going to have a pretty organized civil war. Republicans have no shame and don’t apparently care about the consequences of their actions, so, lulz, we could find ourselves in the absolute worst of worlds because not only are states actively thinking about leaving the Union around this time, but the whole process of figuring out who is POTUS will be languishing in Congress. Republicans, because they are politically blood thirsty and will cheat, will win the power struggle, but there’s a chance states will begin leaving the Union.
It won’t be deranged, individual MAGA New Right blowing stuff up in some sort of rearguard action. It’s going to be a Blue Nation verses a Red Nation. A lot of the same things that happened in the First American Civil War will happen in the second. The U.S. Military will implode as people from Blue States leave it to establish a new Blue State military.
But one thing we have to expect in late 2024 to early 2025 is a mass migration of people across the country as people no longer feel safe living in an area of the country that doesn’t fit their politics. It could be rather frightening.
If it were, God forbid, to happen, I would guess that a Second American Civil War will begin between Certification Day 2025 and Inauguration Day 2025. In other words, as Trump is being sworn in, mass chaos will have erupted across the United States.
Once the hollowed out American military turns it attention to the Blue rebellion at the behest of Trump, it won’t be too long before WMD are sized and used by both sides. Not only would America bomb itself into oblivion with its eyes wide open, but it will be done in the context of WW3 definitely breaking out across the globe because the US will be too busy imploding to ensure the continuation of the post WW2 global order.
The term “Antifa” has become so loaded as to be taboo. When you say “Antifa” the average America thinks people in red and black colors throwing Molotov cocktails in downtown Portland.
And, yet, I find myself thinking about what I am politically these days and I’m not a member of the so-called Twitter “Resistance,” which is made up mostly of elderly busy-bodies who think if they can only write just the right Tweet they can bring down Trump and everyone associated with him. No, I’m anti-fascist. And, as such, I think we need to reclaim Antifa as a concept from the violent thugs who cornered the market on the idea before any of us realized we were going to need it.
Because make no mistake — MAGA is fascism. MAGA is a fascist cancer that is eating away at the heart of American politics. And only when begin to think of ourselves as Antifa and not limp wristed “Resistance” will we see results. Let me be clear, I hate violence and I’m not advocating it now or in the future.
But I’m a man of words and we need to define who we are. The “Resistance” has proven itself a failure. Now that it’s far more clear what we’re up against — fascism — we need to reboot the things and buckle up for what happens when the fascists are the government and we have to risk our lives and sacred honor in the real world.
What’s probably going to happen is, well, nothing. It won’t be until the fascists have “won” that the actual transition from the Resistance to Antifa will take place. This will happen because people are stupid and can’t process that concepts are flexible and can change their meanings as necessary to fit the moment.
“During his fourteen-month term in office, Wihelm Frick gave Thuringians a preview of what would be visited upon as a whole when the Nazis came to national power on 30 January 1933. Veteran,highly skilled civil servants suspected of sympathizing with the SPD were fired and replaced with Nazis stooges.” — “Hitler: Ascent,” by Volker Ullrich.
There is going to come a point, and I think we may have already reached it, when people who ignore that MAGA is American Nazis will be, by definition, complicit in their rise. There comes a point when you’re just being wilful in your ignorance if you aren’t alarmed by what the American Nazis, I mean, MAGA are up to at the moment.
The current excuse is that Trump is such a dingus that even if he is talking about using Schedule F to destroy the Federal government’s civil service that he just won’t be able to implement it. That has got to be about the dumbest reason to ignore the rise of fascism in the United States. What are those people going to say to people like me when — surprise! — Trump is succeeded by his veep who IS able to successfully able to push through Schedule F?
It’s going to be a little too late then, now isn’t it?
As I’ve mentioned before, the great irony of the rise of American fascism and the Fourth Reich is it’s all happening in a time of relative prosperity in the United States. It makes you wonder why this might be the case. I think it may have something to do with how diverse the United States is and the underlining reason for the rise of fascism here to begin with: race.
Of course, if Republicans were honest, they would tell you what they want is something along the lines of Hungary. They think they’re going to get an “illiberal democracy,” when, in fact, things are probably going to get out of control and we’re going to zoom past that into mainlining old school Nazi fascism.
Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) gestures toward a crowd of supporters of President Donald Trump gathered outside the U.S. Capitol to protest the certification of President-elect Joe Biden’s electoral college victory Jan. 6, 2021 at the US Capitol in Washington, DC. Some demonstrators later breached security and stormed the Capitol. (Francis Chung/E&E News and Politico via AP Images)
And, yet, the reaction to the suggestion that MAGA is fascism would be one of outrage on the part of MAGA. They will say people like me have been calling the Right in America fascists since Goldwater. They will say I’m being hysterical. They will say conflate, deflect, whatever they have to do to confront that they are, in fact, fucking fascists who are going to probably, in the end, get more people killed than the Nazis did.
I say this because either direction the US goes once it becomes a fascist state — civil war or “Fortress America,” will cause a destruction of the post-WW2 liberal order and WW3 will happen. A “Great Reset,” if you will.
That’s the future, guys. Autocracy or civil war. My only hope is that the “good guys” will win and on the other side humanity will be far more united because of the collective tragedy we’ve gone through and we can begin to address global issues like global climate change in a collective manner.
The more I read this book about the ascent of the Nazis, the more I worry about the United States. There are many, many similarities between the Nazis of 1920s and 1930s and MAGA of the 2020s. Both pretty explain exactly what they’re going to do once they gain power.
One striking difference between the two movements, and the thing that makes me the most depressed is unlike the Weimar Republic, the United States is doing fairly well economically as MAGA continues its rise to (returned) power. It is, on a historical basis, rather embarrassing and not a little perplexing.
All I can think of is the difference is race.
MAGA is a reaction to the lost of political and economic power by Christian white men and, as such, the usual rules of how an autocratic political party might take power don’t apply.
But MAGA is coming hot and fast for what remains of American democracy. And, in the end, as I keep saying, we either have a civil war or we turn into an autocracy. The question, of course, is how bad the autocracy gets. At the moment, I think we’re probably going to turn into the Fourth Reich. We’re going to be equal to Nazi Germany by 2030.
Yet, of course, I can’t predict the future and I’m always wrong. so, I guess, anything is possible.
I continue to read a book about the ascent of Hitler and one thing I’ve notice is how similar MAGA’s absolute fidelity to their Leader, or Fuhrer, if you will, is to the Nazi fidelity to Hitler.
But there are some differences.
The Nazis actively work to make the Fuhrer Principle a thing. They had to do hard work. Meanwhile, MAGA has, of its own free will, latched on to Trump as some sort of second coming of Jesus H. Christ. This leads me to believe that someone like Trump was inevitable in American politics the moment white Christians began to feel nervous about their position in American politics.
It could have been any number of people ranging from Trump to Pat Buchanan to actor James Woods. It just happened to be dingus Trump who filled that particular historical and political space.
This is another example of why I think in the end, MAGA is going to even worse than the Nazis. I don’t know the specifics, obviously — I mean, I can’t predict the fucking future — but if someone like Trump can accrue as much power as he has without doing any hard work, then what happens when any one of the other would-be MAGA autocrats gets to power?
At this point, it really seems it’s just a matter of how and when we collapse into something akin a Nazi state.
Or we have a civil war. Get out while you still can.
The bright, shiny objects of the discourse around the possibility of a Second American Civil War are 1) how much the Right wants one and 2) the idea that the Right will do some sort of wildcat “Troubles”-like attack on the Federal government when the time comes.
I continue to think both of these talking points are complete and total bullshit.
The issue is, not only is the Right ascendant and, as such, has no reason to start a civil war, but if there is a civil war started by Blues their going to do it on the state level.
I understand why the MAGA New Right gets all the attention. They have explained that they want a white, autocratic Christian ethno state so it’s easy to assume that they would be the ones starting a civil war and it will be done when they take up arms against the State.
But, nope.
For all the Right’s frothy talk about wanting to murder people like me in cold political blood, in the end, they’re getting everything they want peacefully through the courts and regular old politics. The only way I could possibly see them starting a civil war would be if a Speaker Trump demanded one in 2023 when he couldn’t get the Senate to convict Biden and Harris.
But that’s really very speculative.
Trump hasn’t really shown any interest — to date — in being Speaker of the House. But he’s such a deranged dingus that that might change for no particular reason.
So, the point is — keep an eye on Blues, not Reds if you are seriously concerned about a Second American Civil War. Republicans have come to glorify political violence Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
Republicans no longer believe in democracy It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely destabilizing things that help push the country to the brink.
Trump 2024 Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
Steve K Bannon. Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that weuse to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
Extreme negative polarization We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
A lack of shared values As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.
SCOTUS sides with MAGA on the “Independent Legislature” concept. I really don’t know that much about this idea other than it would pretty much give MAGA free reign to ignore the popular vote and use its power over state legislatures to deny Democrats the White House for, well, forever. Once it dawns on Blues that they simply will never be allowed to take the White House again, that might be the final breaking point.
And, honestly, the only thing standing in the way of an autocrat becoming president in 2025 and seizing “total control” pretty quick is any potential cleaving between MAGA and the Republican Party that takes place between now and then.
Given what I’m seeing right now, it definitely doesn’t seem as though that’s going to be a problem. At this point, it seems as though Republicans will first win power in Congress in 2022, then win the presidency (one way or another) in 2024 and that will be that.
The autocracy we feared during the Trump Era will come, just four years later than we all expected. But…
There’s a real chance that our transition from liberal democracy to autocracy won’t be as smooth as I think — there could be a civil war. One side — or the other — won’t accept the results of the election and the country will finally buckle. All the nightmare scenarios that I came up with in 2020-2021, will just happen in 2024-2025.
If what happened in 2020 is any indication, the first sign that we would have that something was amiss would be on the local level. Instead of people who simply do their job as Americans and do the rather perfunctory duty of certifying the win of A Democrat, this doesn’t happen. In crucial voting districts all across swing states, Bannon’s “spiritual shock troops” either refuse to certify the win of A Democrat, or they go so far as to YOLO things and switch the win to Trump.
As this happens, the tension in United States escalates day by day. The very rallying cry of MAGA in 2020 — “Stop The Steal” will be adopted by the center-Left when it becomes clear that the MAGA New Right is hell bent on brazenly stealing the 2024 election in broad daylight.
But remember, the center-Left has a very different personality than the MAGA New Right. The center-Left, for all it’s problems with “cancel culture” and being “woke” is still actually connected to reality. So, there would be a struggle between the natural inclination of centrist Liberals to let the “process work” and Leftists who would want to burn everything to the ground given how corrupted everything had become.
All of this turmoil on the local level would find elections in crucial states thrown into the political realm where MAGA state legislatures and Secretary’s of State would begin to actively ensure that A Democrat is prevented from winning. Every day between Election Day 2024 and Certification Day 2025 things would grow more and more unstable in the United States as it became clear that Bannon’s long-planned “administrative coup” was actually going to work.
There would be mass confusion. Lots of lawsuits
And, remember, if Trump is involved, as all of this is going on, he would do everything in his personal power to rile up both sides. If his ongoing, progressive cognitive decline has gotten bad enough, he might even go transactional.
It would be around this point that I could see Blue governors begin to make serious plans to leave the Union. A lot would depend on what California was willing to do. But it would definitely make sense that California would be the first state to call a Secessionist Convention in preparation of leaving the Union if the 2024 election is, in fact, stolen.
But by some point between Thanksgiving and Christmas, you could see some sort of summit of Blue Governors where they debate their plans to leave the Union if the very thing that the MAGA New Right wants — to turn the United States into an autocracy — actually happens.
And as we approached Certification Day in January 2025, the last step in the crisis would happen. If you thought Certification Day 2021 was bad, just wait until Republicans are actively going over and above what they did then when it rolls around in 2025. So, the system will have been corrupted at both the local and state level. And then if that doesn’t work, Republicans will again try to throw the election into the House and Senate to buy time, if nothing else.
So, let me be clear — anyone who thinks we’re going to have some sort of MAGA New Right revolution a la The Turner Diaries — is a fool. Any Second American Civil War we have is probably going to be started by Blue States leaving the Union out of disgust that the fix is in.
Therefore, by the time Certification Day 2025 rolls around, it could very well be a foregone conclusion that we’re going to have a pretty organized civil war. Republicans have no shame and don’t apparently care about the consequences of their actions, so, lulz, we could find ourselves in the absolute worst of worlds because not only are states actively thinking about leaving the Union around this time, but the whole process of figuring out who is POTUS will be languishing in Congress. Republicans, because they are politically blood thirsty and will cheat, will win the power struggle, but there’s a chance states will begin leaving the Union.
It won’t be deranged, individual MAGA New Right blowing stuff up in some sort of rearguard action. It’s going to be a Blue Nation verses a Red Nation. A lot of the same things that happened in the First American Civil War will happen in the second. The U.S. Military will implode as people from Blue States leave it to establish a new Blue State military.
But one thing we have to expect in late 2024 to early 2025 is a mass migration of people across the country as people no longer feel safe living in an area of the country that doesn’t fit their politics. It could be rather frightening.
If it were, God forbid, to happen, I would guess that a Second American Civil War will begin between Certification Day 2025 and Inauguration Day 2025. In other words, as Trump is being sworn in, mass chaos will have erupted across the United States.
Once the hollowed out American military turns it attention to the Blue rebellion at the behest of Trump, it won’t be too long before WMD are sized and used by both sides. Not only would America bomb itself into oblivion with its eyes wide open, but it will be done in the context of WW3 definitely breaking out across the globe because the US will be too busy imploding to ensure the continuation of the post WW2 global order.
How’s that for a New World Order.
So, here goes. Here’s how the individual states would handle A Second American Civil War, probably starting in late 2024 when it becomes clear that Reds are going to brazenly steal the election. I don’t think this is going to happen — I think we’re just going to slip peacefully into autocracy — but it is at least possible. I’m NOT going to do every state because, lulz, I don’t know the internal politics of each state well enough to do it right.
California If Blues really decide to have a National Divorce, it will be California that probably is at the forefront serving the papers. And the key issue is — war aims. I think at first the war aims of the Blues will be to simply start, say, the United States of Canada. It will only be much later in any conflict that Blues get sucked into fighting the longer-term goal of maybe establishing the United States of North America. And that would happen because Trumplandia could possible begin a Final Solution for POC within its territory and, as such, the second phase of the civil war would be one of liberation. But that’s extremely speculative on my part.
Everything will hinge on what California wants to do. If it simply wants independence for itself, that’s a lot different war than if it joins with other Blue States to establish a new, larger state. But whatever happens once the 2ACW starts, California will be the “Arsenal of Democracy.” If they want to establish a Blue Union, then California would put itself on a war footing. It would call up a few million young men and women into a new Blue Army and away we go. A lot would depend on the state of the US Military, but the case could be made that it might implode, leaving the individual states with the ability to fend for themselves.
California would quickly secure Oregon and Washington then swoop through the plains states to link up with major Blue States in the old Upper Midwest. They would crash into Texas in the south and that would be a Battle Royale, though it’s possible because Texas is shifting blue that Texas might simply implode into an intra-state civil war and Blues could secure the state a lot easier than one might otherwise expect.
But the point is — as goes California, so goes the Blue Union cause.
Texas Texas is a state that is really difficult to game out because while MAGA has turned into a Red stronghold, on the ground, the state is shifting Blue long term. As such, when our national politics finally collapses and we’re dealing with the existential it’s possible that Texas will simply implode. There could be a massive intra-state civil war that leaves it open to Blue Union forces from the West to swoop in and take it over. Or, at least, a lot of it over. But between when the civil war starts and when Blue Union troops come to the rescue, we could all be talking about the Siege of Austin as MAGA surrounds that particular blue dot in a purple state and want to wipe it off the face of the earth.
In a sense, Texas probably has the most to loose from a 2ACW. Texas would probably be the site of a huge amount of fighting as the difference between the Blue shift in the state’s practical politics slams up against the autocratic state government. Or, put another way, Texas is a lot less stable than you might think. It will likely be the source of a huge amount of domestic political refugees who will either endup in camps, or simply flee the state altogether, only to return when (hopefully) Blues win the civil war and there’s a Second Reconstruction.
Oregon The thing about this state is it’s ripe for a huge clusterfuck. Of all the places in the Union in the lead up to any potential 2ACW, Oregon is the state I could most likely see some sort of “Troubles” taking place. There could be a pretty bloody Battle of Portland as all the crazed Far Right Militia’s swoop down on the city and decide to end the “Antifa Problem” once and for all. Then, of course, there’s pretty good chance that all of that will be for naught when California troops come from the south and consolidate Blue control over the state. Not that it won’t come at a very, very blood cost. But California is just too powerful not to be able to seize both Oregon and Washington in the early stages of any 2ACW. Even if California simply wants to go it alone, the mass chaos of Oregon might pull them into the state for some sort of peacekeeping mission.
The Plains States Outside of Texas, the Plaines states may see their fates during a 2ACW largly out of their hands. They could shift from Blue to Red and back again as the two sides fight it out. They have small populations and economies and if California wants to link up with Blue States in the old Upper Midwest, then, they may see their extremely Red politics change in a rather abrupt, violent manner. These states are an example of why it would be so dumb for Red States to want a civil war — the values of small plains states are being forced upon Blue States and Blues aren’t really doing anything about it. But if there was a civil war, the Red Plains States would be forced to change their ways rather quickly.
The Old CSA (At least some of it.) At first, a number of states of the old CSA would explode into joy if there was a 2ACW. States like Mississippi, Alabama and South Carolina would have you believe they are already half way out of the Union as it is because of the evil libtard “groomers” and, as such, if Blue States left the Union the populations of the old CSA states would be very, very happy. But. And this is a big but, as the war progressed and everything went to shit there would be a natural inclination on the part of white Christians in these states to make POC scape goats. There would be a rapid radicalization of the politics of these states to the point that something akin to a race war might break out. Or, if not that, then at least Nazi-style concentration camps would be established with the aim of enacting a Final Solution once and for all. This would, in turn freak the Blue States out to the point that even if they were free of the United States, they might rejoin the battle simply to stop the Final Solution from happening. This is all extremely speculative, of course, but I’m simply gaming out what already exists and then assume the worse.
Florida I used to think that Florida would break up into about three states, given how diverse it is, but no more. I think it would be a fully autocratic state under DeSantis — even if he was POTUS at this point — and a lot of young men from Florida would face up against young men (and women) from California as the war progressed and got worse and worse for everyone concerned. The already fucked up politics of Florida would grow significantly more radical to the point that it was a one party fascist state.
Georgia The thing about Georgia is Atlanta. If there was a 2ACW, then it’s possible that within the state it would be Atlanta versus everyone else. Atlanta would be a very Blue stronghold and the rest of the state would be so Red that it could all get very bloody. Of course, Blue forces from outside the state could swoop in at some point and help take stabilize the situation.
Virginia As I’ve said the last time I wrote this scenario up, Virginia is two states that hate each other. Of all the states of the Union that might find destruction as part of a 2ACW, Virginia is at the top of the list — even more so than Texas. The state would collapse into coups and counter coups. The rural Red parts of the state would go all Pol Pot on the Blue parts of the state and there would be a lot of political scores settled by extremely radicalized rural Reds who wanted to make sure drag queens of the woke cancel culture mob could never teach their kids critical race theory again. I wish I was joking or exaggerating, but I’m not.
Heartland The so-called “American Heartland” is where the worst fighting of any 2ACW would take place. States like Ohio and Indiana would be diehard supporters of Trumplandia and they just would not go down without a fight. It would be the type of fighting not seen since the end of WW2. And it would be happening in what was once the most stable country in the world. As I’ve mentioned, a lot would depend on what Blue war aims were. If they just wanted to start the USoC, then my dark fears probably won’t happen. But if, for some reason, those war aims change and the issue becomes bringing the US back together again (probably with Canada by this point) then, well, all bets are off. It would be a very bloody pitched battle.
New York City
A 2ACW might be a tale of two cities for NYC. On one hand, there’s a chance NYC could become something akin to a Free City and on the other it could get nuked by Trumplandia. Any 2ACW would probably see the city flooded with refugees, maybe even including yours truly. But one thing is for sure — the long term tension between Upstate New York and NYC will grow in the event of a 2ACW to the point that NYC may break away politically in some way. Update New York has a lot of room for political refugees and, as such, you could see the population of some of the Update New York cities might balloon as a result.
New England I think in the even of a 2ACW that New England would be flooded with political refugees to an unprecedented extent. People fleeing all parts of Trumplandia would go to New England, potentially in hopes of getting across the border to Canada. Should the Blue Union unite with Canada, then, of course, that dynamic would change.
In closing, I would note three things. There’s not going to be a 2ACW if Blues don’t have any leadership. They currently have no effective leadership, so a lot of abrupt heroes would have to bubble up to the surface once it became clear that Blues had to leave the Union. Also, all of what I’ve described above has to be taken into the context of very real possibility that WMD would be used by both sides as the war progressed. And, remember, if the United States is too busy bombing itself into oblivion, then the prospect of a “Great Reset” in the guise of WW3 is a very, very real possibility.
Editor’s Note: I’m just doing this off the top of my head. It’s very possible I may get some details wrong.
Sen. Rick Scott
Despite looking like a human – anaconda hybrid, Florida Senator Rick Scott obviously wants to be president as soon as humanly possible. He keeps banging the drum for his proposal that would force everyone — and I mean EVERYONE — to pay taxes of some sort.
Meanwhile, he is also obsessed with getting more people to back to work.
The first issue, he says, is about making everyone feel as though they’re invested in the tax system and they will then realize that all the money being spent in D.C. is their money, yadda, yadda, yadda. Of course, the second phase of this proposal would be to dramatically cut taxes for plutocrats. In fact, that’s kind of the whole point of raising taxes on the Poors — cut taxes on plutocrats to the bone because fuck you, Poors.
As for the whole “getting people back to work,” a lot of liberals conflate the level of participation in the word force (which is Scotts pet peeve) with the unemployment rate. Just because the unemployment rate is at a historic low, doesn’t mean jack crap when it comes to the actual participation in the the job market.
So, Scott wants to gut the social safety net so people will starve to death if they don’t get a job. He’s a massive dickhead, but at least there’s a logic to his cocksucker mentality.
The point of all of this is — it’s plays very, very well both with the MAGA base and the wealthy Republican donors who think all taxation is theft. So, that’s why Scott thinks his draconian tax and social spending beliefs may very well win him the nomiination (if Trump will get out of the way) and the White House.
Since the US is now an anocracy not a democracy, all Scott has to do is become POTUS and that’s it — he will never, ever leave office. It will be him, not Trump, who throttles American democracy.
Or we have a civil war. Get out while you still can.
As far as I can tell, no, we’re not “about to have a civil war.” We may have one, just not anytime soon. I can’t predict the future, I have no idea. But in the near term, we might be “about” to have a civil war in 2023 if Republicans win the House, Trump becomes Speaker and then he goes transactional like he did in the lead up to January 6th.
That’s one way we might have something marketed, at least, as a “civil war.”
But there are a lot of hoops that needs to be jumped for that to happen. A lot –a LOT — has to go wrong.
So, the more logical possibility of a Second American Civil War would go something like this. It would happen now anytime soon, but in late 2024, early 2025.
Republicans have come to glorify political violence Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
Republicans no longer believe in democracy It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely destabilizing things that help push the country to the brink.
Trump 2024 Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
Steve K Bannon. Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that weuse to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
Extreme negative polarization We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
A lack of shared values As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.
SCOTUS sides with MAGA on the “Independent Legislature” concept. I really don’t know that much about this idea other than it would pretty much give MAGA free reign to ignore the popular vote and use its power over state legislatures to deny Democrats the White House for, well, forever. Once it dawns on Blues that they simply will never be allowed to take the White House again, that might be the final breaking point.
And, honestly, the only thing standing in the way of an autocrat becoming president in 2025 and seizing “total control” pretty quick is any potential cleaving between MAGA and the Republican Party that takes place between now and then.
Given what I’m seeing right now, it definitely doesn’t seem as though that’s going to be a problem. At this point, it seems as though Republicans will first win power in Congress in 2022, then win the presidency (one way or another) in 2024 and that will be that.
The autocracy we feared during the Trump Era will come, just four years later than we all expected. But…
There’s a real chance that our transition from liberal democracy to autocracy won’t be as smooth as I think — there could be a civil war. One side — or the other — won’t accept the results of the election and the country will finally buckle. All the nightmare scenarios that I came up with in 2020-2021, will just happen in 2024-2025.
If what happened in 2020 is any indication, the first sign that we would have that something was amiss would be on the local level. Instead of people who simply do their job as Americans and do the rather perfunctory duty of certifying the win of A Democrat, this doesn’t happen. In crucial voting districts all across swing states, Bannon’s “spiritual shock troops” either refuse to certify the win of A Democrat, or they go so far as to YOLO things and switch the win to Trump.
As this happens, the tension in United States escalates day by day. The very rallying cry of MAGA in 2020 — “Stop The Steal” will be adopted by the center-Left when it becomes clear that the MAGA New Right is hell bent on brazenly stealing the 2024 election in broad daylight.
But remember, the center-Left has a very different personality than the MAGA New Right. The center-Left, for all it’s problems with “cancel culture” and being “woke” is still actually connected to reality. So, there would be a struggle between the natural inclination of centrist Liberals to let the “process work” and Leftists who would want to burn everything to the ground given how corrupted everything had become.
All of this turmoil on the local level would find elections in crucial states thrown into the political realm where MAGA state legislatures and Secretary’s of State would begin to actively ensure that A Democrat is prevented from winning. Every day between Election Day 2024 and Certification Day 2025 things would grow more and more unstable in the United States as it became clear that Bannon’s long-planned “administrative coup” was actually going to work.
There would be mass confusion. Lots of lawsuits
And, remember, if Trump is involved, as all of this is going on, he would do everything in his personal power to rile up both sides. If his ongoing, progressive cognitive decline has gotten bad enough, he might even go transactional.
It would be around this point that I could see Blue governors begin to make serious plans to leave the Union. A lot would depend on what California was willing to do. But it would definitely make sense that California would be the first state to call a Secessionist Convention in preparation of leaving the Union if the 2024 election is, in fact, stolen.
But by some point between Thanksgiving and Christmas, you could see some sort of summit of Blue Governors where they debate their plans to leave the Union if the very thing that the MAGA New Right wants — to turn the United States into an autocracy — actually happens.
And as we approached Certification Day in January 2025, the last step in the crisis would happen. If you thought Certification Day 2021 was bad, just wait until Republicans are actively going over and above what they did then when it rolls around in 2025. So, the system will have been corrupted at both the local and state level. And then if that doesn’t work, Republicans will again try to throw the election into the House and Senate to buy time, if nothing else.
So, let me be clear — anyone who thinks we’re going to have some sort of MAGA New Right revolution a la The Turner Diaries — is a fool. Any Second American Civil War we have is probably going to be started by Blue States leaving the Union out of disgust that the fix is in.
Therefore, by the time Certification Day 2025 rolls around, it could very well be a foregone conclusion that we’re going to have a pretty organized civil war. Republicans have no shame and don’t apparently care about the consequences of their actions, so, lulz, we could find ourselves in the absolute worst of worlds because not only are states actively thinking about leaving the Union around this time, but the whole process of figuring out who is POTUS will be languishing in Congress. Republicans, because they are politically blood thirsty and will cheat, will win the power struggle, but there’s a chance states will begin leaving the Union.
It won’t be deranged, individual MAGA New Right blowing stuff up in some sort of rearguard action. It’s going to be a Blue Nation verses a Red Nation. A lot of the same things that happened in the First American Civil War will happen in the second. The U.S. Military will implode as people from Blue States leave it to establish a new Blue State military.
But one thing we have to expect in late 2024 to early 2025 is a mass migration of people across the country as people no longer feel safe living in an area of the country that doesn’t fit their politics. It could be rather frightening.
If it were, God forbid, to happen, I would guess that a Second American Civil War will begin between Certification Day 2025 and Inauguration Day 2025. In other words, as Trump is being sworn in, mass chaos will have erupted across the United States.
Once the hollowed out American military turns it attention to the Blue rebellion at the behest of Trump, it won’t be too long before WMD are sized and used by both sides. Not only would America bomb itself into oblivion with its eyes wide open, but it will be done in the context of WW3 definitely breaking out across the globe because the US will be too busy imploding to ensure the continuation of the post WW2 global order.
How’s that for a New World Order.
So, here goes. Here’s how the individual states would handle A Second American Civil War, probably starting in late 2024 when it becomes clear that Reds are going to brazenly steal the election. I don’t think this is going to happen — I think we’re just going to slip peacefully into autocracy — but it is at least possible. I’m NOT going to do every state because, lulz, I don’t know the internal politics of each state well enough to do it right.
California If Blues really decide to have a National Divorce, it will be California that probably is at the forefront serving the papers. And the key issue is — war aims. I think at first the war aims of the Blues will be to simply start, say, the United States of Canada. It will only be much later in any conflict that Blues get sucked into fighting the longer-term goal of maybe establishing the United States of North America. And that would happen because Trumplandia could possible begin a Final Solution for POC within its territory and, as such, the second phase of the civil war would be one of liberation. But that’s extremely speculative on my part.
Everything will hinge on what California wants to do. If it simply wants independence for itself, that’s a lot different war than if it joins with other Blue States to establish a new, larger state. But whatever happens once the 2ACW starts, California will be the “Arsenal of Democracy.” If they want to establish a Blue Union, then California would put itself on a war footing. It would call up a few million young men and women into a new Blue Army and away we go. A lot would depend on the state of the US Military, but the case could be made that it might implode, leaving the individual states with the ability to fend for themselves.
California would quickly secure Oregon and Washington then swoop through the plains states to link up with major Blue States in the old Upper Midwest. They would crash into Texas in the south and that would be a Battle Royale, though it’s possible because Texas is shifting blue that Texas might simply implode into an intra-state civil war and Blues could secure the state a lot easier than one might otherwise expect.
But the point is — as goes California, so goes the Blue Union cause.
Texas Texas is a state that is really difficult to game out because while MAGA has turned into a Red stronghold, on the ground, the state is shifting Blue long term. As such, when our national politics finally collapses and we’re dealing with the existential it’s possible that Texas will simply implode. There could be a massive intra-state civil war that leaves it open to Blue Union forces from the West to swoop in and take it over. Or, at least, a lot of it over. But between when the civil war starts and when Blue Union troops come to the rescue, we could all be talking about the Siege of Austin as MAGA surrounds that particular blue dot in a purple state and want to wipe it off the face of the earth.
In a sense, Texas probably has the most to loose from a 2ACW. Texas would probably be the site of a huge amount of fighting as the difference between the Blue shift in the state’s practical politics slams up against the autocratic state government. Or, put another way, Texas is a lot less stable than you might think. It will likely be the source of a huge amount of domestic political refugees who will either endup in camps, or simply flee the state altogether, only to return when (hopefully) Blues win the civil war and there’s a Second Reconstruction.
Oregon The thing about this state is it’s ripe for a huge clusterfuck. Of all the places in the Union in the lead up to any potential 2ACW, Oregon is the state I could most likely see some sort of “Troubles” taking place. There could be a pretty bloody Battle of Portland as all the crazed Far Right Militia’s swoop down on the city and decide to end the “Antifa Problem” once and for all. Then, of course, there’s pretty good chance that all of that will be for naught when California troops come from the south and consolidate Blue control over the state. Not that it won’t come at a very, very blood cost. But California is just too powerful not to be able to seize both Oregon and Washington in the early stages of any 2ACW. Even if California simply wants to go it alone, the mass chaos of Oregon might pull them into the state for some sort of peacekeeping mission.
The Plains States Outside of Texas, the Plaines states may see their fates during a 2ACW largly out of their hands. They could shift from Blue to Red and back again as the two sides fight it out. They have small populations and economies and if California wants to link up with Blue States in the old Upper Midwest, then, they may see their extremely Red politics change in a rather abrupt, violent manner. These states are an example of why it would be so dumb for Red States to want a civil war — the values of small plains states are being forced upon Blue States and Blues aren’t really doing anything about it. But if there was a civil war, the Red Plains States would be forced to change their ways rather quickly.
The Old CSA (At least some of it.) At first, a number of states of the old CSA would explode into joy if there was a 2ACW. States like Mississippi, Alabama and South Carolina would have you believe they are already half way out of the Union as it is because of the evil libtard “groomers” and, as such, if Blue States left the Union the populations of the old CSA states would be very, very happy. But. And this is a big but, as the war progressed and everything went to shit there would be a natural inclination on the part of white Christians in these states to make POC scape goats. There would be a rapid radicalization of the politics of these states to the point that something akin to a race war might break out. Or, if not that, then at least Nazi-style concentration camps would be established with the aim of enacting a Final Solution once and for all. This would, in turn freak the Blue States out to the point that even if they were free of the United States, they might rejoin the battle simply to stop the Final Solution from happening. This is all extremely speculative, of course, but I’m simply gaming out what already exists and then assume the worse.
Florida I used to think that Florida would break up into about three states, given how diverse it is, but no more. I think it would be a fully autocratic state under DeSantis — even if he was POTUS at this point — and a lot of young men from Florida would face up against young men (and women) from California as the war progressed and got worse and worse for everyone concerned. The already fucked up politics of Florida would grow significantly more radical to the point that it was a one party fascist state.
Georgia The thing about Georgia is Atlanta. If there was a 2ACW, then it’s possible that within the state it would be Atlanta versus everyone else. Atlanta would be a very Blue stronghold and the rest of the state would be so Red that it could all get very bloody. Of course, Blue forces from outside the state could swoop in at some point and help take stabilize the situation.
Virginia As I’ve said the last time I wrote this scenario up, Virginia is two states that hate each other. Of all the states of the Union that might find destruction as part of a 2ACW, Virginia is at the top of the list — even more so than Texas. The state would collapse into coups and counter coups. The rural Red parts of the state would go all Pol Pot on the Blue parts of the state and there would be a lot of political scores settled by extremely radicalized rural Reds who wanted to make sure drag queens of the woke cancel culture mob could never teach their kids critical race theory again. I wish I was joking or exaggerating, but I’m not.
Heartland The so-called “American Heartland” is where the worst fighting of any 2ACW would take place. States like Ohio and Indiana would be diehard supporters of Trumplandia and they just would not go down without a fight. It would be the type of fighting not seen since the end of WW2. And it would be happening in what was once the most stable country in the world. As I’ve mentioned, a lot would depend on what Blue war aims were. If they just wanted to start the USoC, then my dark fears probably won’t happen. But if, for some reason, those war aims change and the issue becomes bringing the US back together again (probably with Canada by this point) then, well, all bets are off. It would be a very bloody pitched battle.
New York City
A 2ACW might be a tale of two cities for NYC. On one hand, there’s a chance NYC could become something akin to a Free City and on the other it could get nuked by Trumplandia. Any 2ACW would probably see the city flooded with refugees, maybe even including yours truly. But one thing is for sure — the long term tension between Upstate New York and NYC will grow in the event of a 2ACW to the point that NYC may break away politically in some way. Update New York has a lot of room for political refugees and, as such, you could see the population of some of the Update New York cities might balloon as a result.
New England I think in the even of a 2ACW that New England would be flooded with political refugees to an unprecedented extent. People fleeing all parts of Trumplandia would go to New England, potentially in hopes of getting across the border to Canada. Should the Blue Union unite with Canada, then, of course, that dynamic would change.
In closing, I would note three things. There’s not going to be a 2ACW if Blues don’t have any leadership. They currently have no effective leadership, so a lot of abrupt heroes would have to bubble up to the surface once it became clear that Blues had to leave the Union. Also, all of what I’ve described above has to be taken into the context of very real possibility that WMD would be used by both sides as the war progressed. And, remember, if the United States is too busy bombing itself into oblivion, then the prospect of a “Great Reset” in the guise of WW3 is a very, very real possibility.
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