I hate to break it to you guys, but because the United States is tearing itself apart at the moment, we’re probably the weakest we’ve been in a long, long time. It has noting to do with Biden and everything to do with tectonic, long-term macro forces that are all coming to a head around late 2024, early 2025.
HT/ The Sun
In short, American politics is very, very strange right now. To be a Republican in good standing is to be a bomb throwing fascist who wants to burn everything to the ground. Meanwhile, to be a Democrat is to stand for traditional democratic norms, traditions and institutions.
Things are so partisan at the moment that Republicans have whole heartedly embraced the autocratic thug Putin in Russia and see not America, but the Russian Fatherland as a “shining city on a hill” that the world should attempt to emulate. It’s all very surreal.
So, this brings us to what the domestic political reaction would be to a war between China and Taiwan.
The natural inclination of Republicans would be to oppose any help for Taiwan just to be dicks. But the dynamic is a lot different between China and Russia. A lot of this is — duh — a matter of race. Republicans are fucking racists and see the “white” Russia as something to emulate while the “none-white” communist China is not.
But there is the broader issue of MAGA being extremely isolationist. So, there’s every reason to believe that if there was a war between China and Taiwan that MAGA would oppose any help to Taiwan, while at the same time screaming at the top of their lungs that Biden was “weak” on China.
Now, there are some meta elements to all of this that would need to be taken into consideration. There is a good chance that the American press would call two regional wars happening at the same time “WW3.” It’s inevitable that the American press talking constantly about WW3 happening would eventually break through into the average person’s brain and they would sit up and take notice. This would, in turn, change the political dynamic in the US going into the 2022 midterms.
Additionally, if there was a massive war between China and Taiwan, this would destabilize the entire world a great deal. Any number of other smoldering conflicts around the world would probably erupt into open warfare. I mean, who’s to say that the DPRK wouldn’t attack ROK if a Sino-Taiwanese war erupted? They might think that the US would be so distracted with two major regional wars that this might be their last time to attack the South Koreans. (But, admittedly, the DPRK is such a black box that anything is possible.)
If there was a war between the Koreas while China was attacking Taiwan and Russia, Ukraine then we really would be going to the show. It really would be WW3 and there would suddenly be a lot of talk about the for the Draft to come back in the US. Now, THAT would end the “woke era” once and for all. It’s tough being woke at 18 when you’re worried about dying in defense of freedom in a far away land.
As an aside, the issue of if young women should be drafted would probably definitely come up if WW3 started and we again eyed the draft. I think they should be, but, apparently, that is a radical idea to some. So, it’s unlikely.
The point of all of this is — if WW3 arrives, the US is so divided that I can’t promise you that we’d rise to the occasion like we did in WW2. And, what’s worse, if WW3 lasted until the 2024 – 2025 timeframe, there’s a good chance that we would play the role of the Russian Empire in WW1 and pull out to take care of our own domestic crisis.
I’ve decided to revise my somewhat popular (in relative terms) state-by-state breakdown of a possible Second American Civil War. Here’s the scenario I’m assuming might happen that would spark 2ACW.
Here are some reasons why we will have a civil war.
Republicans have come to glorify political violence Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
Republicans no longer believe in democracy It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely destabilizing things that help push the country to the brink.
Trump 2024 Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
Steve K Bannon. Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that weuse to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
Extreme negative polarization We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
A lack of shared values As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.
SCOTUS sides with MAGA on the “Independent Legislature” concept. I really don’t know that much about this idea other than it would pretty much give MAGA free reign to ignore the popular vote and use its power over state legislatures to deny Democrats the White House for, well, forever. Once it dawns on Blues that they simply will never be allowed to take the White House again, that might be the final breaking point.
And, honestly, the only thing standing in the way of an autocrat becoming president in 2025 and seizing “total control” pretty quick is any potential cleaving between MAGA and the Republican Party that takes place between now and then.
Given what I’m seeing right now, it definitely doesn’t seem as though that’s going to be a problem. At this point, it seems as though Republicans will first win power in Congress in 2022, then win the presidency (one way or another) in 2024 and that will be that.
The autocracy we feared during the Trump Era will come, just four years later than we all expected. But…
There’s a real chance that our transition from liberal democracy to autocracy won’t be as smooth as I think — there could be a civil war. One side — or the other — won’t accept the results of the election and the country will finally buckle. All the nightmare scenarios that I came up with in 2020-2021, will just happen in 2024-2025.
If what happened in 2020 is any indication, the first sign that we would have that something was amiss would be on the local level. Instead of people who simply do their job as Americans and do the rather perfunctory duty of certifying the win of A Democrat, this doesn’t happen. In crucial voting districts all across swing states, Bannon’s “spiritual shock troops” either refuse to certify the win of A Democrat, or they go so far as to YOLO things and switch the win to Trump.
As this happens, the tension in United States escalates day by day. The very rallying cry of MAGA in 2020 — “Stop The Steal” will be adopted by the center-Left when it becomes clear that the MAGA New Right is hell bent on brazenly stealing the 2024 election in broad daylight.
But remember, the center-Left has a very different personality than the MAGA New Right. The center-Left, for all it’s problems with “cancel culture” and being “woke” is still actually connected to reality. So, there would be a struggle between the natural inclination of centrist Liberals to let the “process work” and Leftists who would want to burn everything to the ground given how corrupted everything had become.
All of this turmoil on the local level would find elections in crucial states thrown into the political realm where MAGA state legislatures and Secretary’s of State would begin to actively ensure that A Democrat is prevented from winning. Every day between Election Day 2024 and Certification Day 2025 things would grow more and more unstable in the United States as it became clear that Bannon’s long-planned “administrative coup” was actually going to work.
There would be mass confusion. Lots of lawsuits
And, remember, if Trump is involved, as all of this is going on, he would do everything in his personal power to rile up both sides. If his ongoing, progressive cognitive decline has gotten bad enough, he might even go transactional.
It would be around this point that I could see Blue governors begin to make serious plans to leave the Union. A lot would depend on what California was willing to do. But it would definitely make sense that California would be the first state to call a Secessionist Convention in preparation of leaving the Union if the 2024 election is, in fact, stolen.
But by some point between Thanksgiving and Christmas, you could see some sort of summit of Blue Governors where they debate their plans to leave the Union if the very thing that the MAGA New Right wants — to turn the United States into an autocracy — actually happens.
And as we approached Certification Day in January 2025, the last step in the crisis would happen. If you thought Certification Day 2021 was bad, just wait until Republicans are actively going over and above what they did then when it rolls around in 2025. So, the system will have been corrupted at both the local and state level. And then if that doesn’t work, Republicans will again try to throw the election into the House and Senate to buy time, if nothing else.
So, let me be clear — anyone who thinks we’re going to have some sort of MAGA New Right revolution a la The Turner Diaries — is a fool. Any Second American Civil War we have is probably going to be started by Blue States leaving the Union out of disgust that the fix is in.
Therefore, by the time Certification Day 2025 rolls around, it could very well be a foregone conclusion that we’re going to have a pretty organized civil war. Republicans have no shame and don’t apparently care about the consequences of their actions, so, lulz, we could find ourselves in the absolute worst of worlds because not only are states actively thinking about leaving the Union around this time, but the whole process of figuring out who is POTUS will be languishing in Congress. Republicans, because they are politically blood thirsty and will cheat, will win the power struggle, but there’s a chance states will begin leaving the Union.
It won’t be deranged, individual MAGA New Right blowing stuff up in some sort of rearguard action. It’s going to be a Blue Nation verses a Red Nation. A lot of the same things that happened in the First American Civil War will happen in the second. The U.S. Military will implode as people from Blue States leave it to establish a new Blue State military.
But one thing we have to expect in late 2024 to early 2025 is a mass migration of people across the country as people no longer feel safe living in an area of the country that doesn’t fit their politics. It could be rather frightening.
If it were, God forbid, to happen, I would guess that a Second American Civil War will begin between Certification Day 2025 and Inauguration Day 2025. In other words, as Trump is being sworn in, mass chaos will have erupted across the United States.
Once the hollowed out American military turns it attention to the Blue rebellion at the behest of Trump, it won’t be too long before WMD are sized and used by both sides. Not only would America bomb itself into oblivion with its eyes wide open, but it will be done in the context of WW3 definitely breaking out across the globe because the US will be too busy imploding to ensure the continuation of the post WW2 global order.
How’s that for a New World Order.
So, here goes. Here’s how the individual states would handle A Second American Civil War, probably starting in late 2024 when it becomes clear that Reds are going to brazenly steal the election. I don’t think this is going to happen — I think we’re just going to slip peacefully into autocracy — but it is at least possible. I’m NOT going to do every state because, lulz, I don’t know the internal politics of each state well enough to do it right.
California If Blues really decide to have a National Divorce, it will be California that probably is at the forefront serving the papers. And the key issue is — war aims. I think at first the war aims of the Blues will be to simply start, say, the United States of Canada. It will only be much later in any conflict that Blues get sucked into fighting the longer-term goal of maybe establishing the United States of North America. And that would happen because Trumplandia could possible begin a Final Solution for POC within its territory and, as such, the second phase of the civil war would be one of liberation. But that’s extremely speculative on my part.
Everything will hinge on what California wants to do. If it simply wants independence for itself, that’s a lot different war than if it joins with other Blue States to establish a new, larger state. But whatever happens once the 2ACW starts, California will be the “Arsenal of Democracy.” If they want to establish a Blue Union, then California would put itself on a war footing. It would call up a few million young men and women into a new Blue Army and away we go. A lot would depend on the state of the US Military, but the case could be made that it might implode, leaving the individual states with the ability to fend for themselves.
California would quickly secure Oregon and Washington then swoop through the plains states to link up with major Blue States in the old Upper Midwest. They would crash into Texas in the south and that would be a Battle Royale, though it’s possible because Texas is shifting blue that Texas might simply implode into an intra-state civil war and Blues could secure the state a lot easier than one might otherwise expect.
But the point is — as goes California, so goes the Blue Union cause.
Texas Texas is a state that is really difficult to game out because while MAGA has turned into a Red stronghold, on the ground, the state is shifting Blue long term. As such, when our national politics finally collapses and we’re dealing with the existential it’s possible that Texas will simply implode. There could be a massive intra-state civil war that leaves it open to Blue Union forces from the West to swoop in and take it over. Or, at least, a lot of it over. But between when the civil war starts and when Blue Union troops come to the rescue, we could all be talking about the Siege of Austin as MAGA surrounds that particular blue dot in a purple state and want to wipe it off the face of the earth.
In a sense, Texas probably has the most to loose from a 2ACW. Texas would probably be the site of a huge amount of fighting as the difference between the Blue shift in the state’s practical politics slams up against the autocratic state government. Or, put another way, Texas is a lot less stable than you might think. It will likely be the source of a huge amount of domestic political refugees who will either endup in camps, or simply flee the state altogether, only to return when (hopefully) Blues win the civil war and there’s a Second Reconstruction.
Oregon The thing about this state is it’s ripe for a huge clusterfuck. Of all the places in the Union in the lead up to any potential 2ACW, Oregon is the state I could most likely see some sort of “Troubles” taking place. There could be a pretty bloody Battle of Portland as all the crazed Far Right Militia’s swoop down on the city and decide to end the “Antifa Problem” once and for all. Then, of course, there’s pretty good chance that all of that will be for naught when California troops come from the south and consolidate Blue control over the state. Not that it won’t come at a very, very blood cost. But California is just too powerful not to be able to seize both Oregon and Washington in the early stages of any 2ACW. Even if California simply wants to go it alone, the mass chaos of Oregon might pull them into the state for some sort of peacekeeping mission.
The Plains States Outside of Texas, the Plaines states may see their fates during a 2ACW largly out of their hands. They could shift from Blue to Red and back again as the two sides fight it out. They have small populations and economies and if California wants to link up with Blue States in the old Upper Midwest, then, they may see their extremely Red politics change in a rather abrupt, violent manner. These states are an example of why it would be so dumb for Red States to want a civil war — the values of small plains states are being forced upon Blue States and Blues aren’t really doing anything about it. But if there was a civil war, the Red Plains States would be forced to change their ways rather quickly.
The Old CSA (At least some of it.) At first, a number of states of the old CSA would explode into joy if there was a 2ACW. States like Mississippi, Alabama and South Carolina would have you believe they are already half way out of the Union as it is because of the evil libtard “groomers” and, as such, if Blue States left the Union the populations of the old CSA states would be very, very happy. But. And this is a big but, as the war progressed and everything went to shit there would be a natural inclination on the part of white Christians in these states to make POC scape goats. There would be a rapid radicalization of the politics of these states to the point that something akin to a race war might break out. Or, if not that, then at least Nazi-style concentration camps would be established with the aim of enacting a Final Solution once and for all. This would, in turn freak the Blue States out to the point that even if they were free of the United States, they might rejoin the battle simply to stop the Final Solution from happening. This is all extremely speculative, of course, but I’m simply gaming out what already exists and then assume the worse.
Florida I used to think that Florida would break up into about three states, given how diverse it is, but no more. I think it would be a fully autocratic state under DeSantis — even if he was POTUS at this point — and a lot of young men from Florida would face up against young men (and women) from California as the war progressed and got worse and worse for everyone concerned. The already fucked up politics of Florida would grow significantly more radical to the point that it was a one party fascist state.
Georgia The thing about Georgia is Atlanta. If there was a 2ACW, then it’s possible that within the state it would be Atlanta versus everyone else. Atlanta would be a very Blue stronghold and the rest of the state would be so Red that it could all get very bloody. Of course, Blue forces from outside the state could swoop in at some point and help take stabilize the situation.
Virginia As I’ve said the last time I wrote this scenario up, Virginia is two states that hate each other. Of all the states of the Union that might find destruction as part of a 2ACW, Virginia is at the top of the list — even more so than Texas. The state would collapse into coups and counter coups. The rural Red parts of the state would go all Pol Pot on the Blue parts of the state and there would be a lot of political scores settled by extremely radicalized rural Reds who wanted to make sure drag queens of the woke cancel culture mob could never teach their kids critical race theory again. I wish I was joking or exaggerating, but I’m not.
Heartland The so-called “American Heartland” is where the worst fighting of any 2ACW would take place. States like Ohio and Indiana would be diehard supporters of Trumplandia and they just would not go down without a fight. It would be the type of fighting not seen since the end of WW2. And it would be happening in what was once the most stable country in the world. As I’ve mentioned, a lot would depend on what Blue war aims were. If they just wanted to start the USoC, then my dark fears probably won’t happen. But if, for some reason, those war aims change and the issue becomes bringing the US back together again (probably with Canada by this point) then, well, all bets are off. It would be a very bloody pitched battle.
New York City
A 2ACW might be a tale of two cities for NYC. On one hand, there’s a chance NYC could become something akin to a Free City and on the other it could get nuked by Trumplandia. Any 2ACW would probably see the city flooded with refugees, maybe even including yours truly. But one thing is for sure — the long term tension between Upstate New York and NYC will grow in the event of a 2ACW to the point that NYC may break away politically in some way. Update New York has a lot of room for political refugees and, as such, you could see the population of some of the Update New York cities might balloon as a result.
New England I think in the even of a 2ACW that New England would be flooded with political refugees to an unprecedented extent. People fleeing all parts of Trumplandia would go to New England, potentially in hopes of getting across the border to Canada. Should the Blue Union unite with Canada, then, of course, that dynamic would change.
In closing, I would note three things. There’s not going to be a 2ACW if Blues don’t have any leadership. They currently have no effective leadership, so a lot of abrupt heroes would have to bubble up to the surface once it became clear that Blues had to leave the Union. Also, all of what I’ve described above has to be taken into the context of very real possibility that WMD would be used by both sides as the war progressed. And, remember, if the United States is too busy bombing itself into oblivion, then the prospect of a “Great Reset” in the guise of WW3 is a very, very real possibility.
First, I can’t predict the future. So this is simply me sketching out a scenario, not some sort of Fourth Turning attempt to predict the future with any sort of certainty. But as I’ve said over and over again, even though MAGA really, really, really wants a civil war so they can start to use all their AR-15s to murder people like me in cold political blood — they really don’t have any reason to do so.
They’re getting everything they want politically and through the courts. Why in the world would MAGA want to start a civil war when they can get everything they want peacefully, without firing a shot?
But MAGA is so hateful, so spiteful that they continue to come to this site with all its dystopian hellscape predictions, looking for some post they can use to stroke one out while they’re fucking their AR-15.
So, the question is — how and when could MAGA get that civil war they want so bad?
As of right now, as far as I can tell, there is only one way that it would be MAGA and not the Blues who start a civil war. If, say, something, God forbid, happened to Biden between now and the 2022 midterms, then there would be no veep. Then a lot would depend on how much Trump wanted to be POTUS again. If, when the House flips Trump hijacks the Republican selection of the Speaker of the House, then Trump would be one heartbeat away from the presidency.
And here’s where the civil war might happen, with Trump and MAGA being the reason.
Trump immediately leads the House Republicans to impeach now President Harris on, say, something to do with the “border crisis.” It goes to the Senate and when it becomes clear that there wouldn’t be a conviction, Trump, in an effort to put pressure on Democratic Senators, threatens to lead Red MAGA States “in to the promise land of freedom” unless they convict Harris and make him POTUS.
Things get out of hand, just like they did on January 6th and what Trump was using as a rhetorical tactic turns into a secession crisis. (I’m aware that Trump plotting to make January 6th an insurrection and things did NOT just get out of hand, but still.)
Republican States, starting with Texas, begin to hold snap secession conventions and away we go. At last, MAGA will have the excuse to use their AR-15s to murder the libtard “groomers.”
But let me clear — I will be flabbergasted if it we have the “Troubles” type civil war that some people seem to believe we will. To me at least, that makes no sense. When you have the resources of an entire political party, the Republican Party to use, why would you leave the death and destruction to amateurs when you can use the instruments of state?
The fact that so many MAGA people are slobbering about the idea of a civil war that would be more like the Troubles gives you a lot more insight into what’s really going on than you might think. Fucking cocksucker MAGA people are so riled up by Fox News and rabid conservative podcasts that they are looking for any excuse to murder liberals.
But if there is a civil war with MAGA starting it, it will be done at the state level. I’m sure there might be some wildcat bombings and political murders here and there, but the state level is where it’s going to be happening.
And, as I keep saying, I just don’t see MAGA doing a National Divorce. I think we’re going to slip peacefully into a MAGA themed autocracy and that will be that. But if there is a civil war, it will start in late 2024, early 2025 and it will happen when Blue States leave the Union.
Overall, any talk of MAGA starting a civil war because they hate the woke cancel culture mob is just bloodthirsty froth.
When the history of the United States’ final lurch into autocracy is written, at least one chapter will be written about something that didn’t happen: Jon Stewart running for POTUS.
Jon Stewart
I have long believed Stewart would make an excellent POTUS for a number of reasons. There’s evidence to suggest that he’s a great manager. And he’s a great speaker and he’s very articulate when something makes him angry. I have repeatedly suggested in the past that Stewart should run for the U.S. Senate or governor of New Jersey first before any running for POTUS.
Given what is known about Stewart now, he is almost a 1-to-1 with another Jewish comedian who rose to the occasion to be a great leader: Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine.
And, yet, for all his passionate anger over this pet causes now and again, Stewart has show no signs of wanting to anything else politically. He is content to run a glorified petting zoo and live a semi-retired life.
Having said all that, the United States, as I mentioned, is sliding into autocracy. And either Stewart might be able to slow that slide into autocracy some or he could very well become a Blue State leader should Blue decide to secede from the Union when it comes clear that Reds are determined establish an autocratic white Christian ethno state.
In the past, at least, Stewart has stepped out into the public eye for a political reason and then, when he grows too uncomfortable about it and begins to think people are taking him seriously — he cracks a fart joke.
I guess what I’m saying is — if anyone acted like Stewart is now and was as good at it, I would say, “He’s running.”
But even when people write Politico pieces about why Stewart should run, he’s gone all Gen. Sherman on us and said he has no interest in being POTUS whatsoever.
All I can say is — the moment Republicans take control of the House in January 2023, things are going to get very, very bumpy. And people like Stewart may find themselves doing things, like run for POTUS, that they might not otherwise be interested in doing.
It’s sometimes easy to dismiss Trump as a political has been and a big old dingus. And, yet, I’m reading a biography about the political ascent of Hitler and I’m just past the part where Hitler tried to overthrow the Weimar Republic via his failed Beerhall Putsch.
What’s so alarming is, if you do a 1-to-1 between Trump’s January 6th Insurrection and Hitler’s Beerhall Putsch, Trump came a lot closer to getting what he wanted than Hitler. With the Beerhall Putsch, Hitler would have had to have marched on Berlin to successfully overthrown the government there. Meanwhile, Trump at the time of the January 6th Insurrection WAS the government and, to some extent, the only reason why he failed was Mike Pence simply did his job.
Had things worked out just a little bit differently on January 6th, Trump could have at least forced the country into chaos and potentially civil war. And there was just as much of a chance that he could have successfully pulled off an autogolpe and continued to stay in power.
So, the case could be made that Trump in 2020 and Hitler in 1923 were far more similar than one might first thing. And, what’s worse, Trump was actually more dangerous than Hitler.
The key thing we have to appreciate is how popular fascist autocracy is in the United States at the moment. A number of things superficially suggest that there might be a civil war instead of a slide into autocracy, but I continue to be very dubious of such a notion.
Just because the United States is far bigger and more diverse than the Weimar Republic doesn’t mean we’re any less likely to embrace fascism when the time comes. The American center-Left is a pushover and unless something I just can’t predict happens, they will suffer the same fate as Russian liberals when Putin came to power — exile, arrest and or death.
I would estimate that around 48% of the American population looking forward to a white, autocratic Christian ethno state. A lot of that 48% doesn’t really appreciate what it is exactly that they want, but they know it when they see it. As such, I continue to believe that on a macro historical scale MAGA could be as dangerous, if not more dangerous, than the Nazis.
Ultimately, more people will die because of MAGA than the Nazis.
I think this because either we have a civil war in the United States that causes WW3, or the United States becomes a MAGA themed America First Fortress which will so destabilize the world order that…a WW3 happens. And given the issue of race in the United States, it’s very likely that once we get our MAGA fascist state that it will go after African Americans, gays and…Jews. And loudmouth cranks like me.
Form follows function.
And the diverse nature of America could very well make our new fascist MAGA overlords feel more insecure to the point that they decide to have a “Final Solution” of their own.
Here’s something interesting to think about when it comes to comparing Hitler and Trump — both of them make no bones about their long-term intentions. Hitler wrote Mein Kampf while Trump did a lot of deranged tweets that gave people a real-time understanding of his thinking.
Form follows function. There are so many eerie similarities between Trump and Hitler that you have to take the rise of MAGA in the United States just as seriously as that of the NSDAP in the Weimar Republic. As of right now, the only thing that is a major difference between Trump and Hitler is Trump is not a Great Man.
He’s just an avatar, a vessel for white Christian rage in the United States. Trump is so stupid and so lazy that he is more of a transitional figure than Hitler, who shaped history to his will. So, in that sense, it’s probably going to be Trump’s fascist successor who will be America’s Hitler, or maybe some mish-mash of Hitler and Putin.
The point is — if you have the means, start making your plans for getting the fuck out of the United States. I’m a broke ass motherfucker so I’m going to have to stay and fight. But at least 1 million wealthy, well educated liberals are going to leave the US starting in late 2024. You should probably make your plans now to beat the rush.
If you have the means, I would recommend you leave the United States permanently. Or, at least begin to figure out how you’re going to do it before late 2024. America has given up on democracy, to the point that if we have any spunk left in us to defend it we’re going to have a civil war that Blues start.
But I just don’t believe we’re going to have a civil war.
The United States, one way or another, is going to become a Hungary-style autocracy. And maybe even an autocracy closer to Russia or Nazi Germany at some point in the not-so-distant future.
In short, we’re fucked.
Now, obviously, I can’t predict the future, so it’s possible something might happen that will punt this particular problem down the road. But it will just delay the existential crisis, not prevent it altogether.
There are some deep seated problems with the American political system and we’re totally, completely fucked sooner or later. Pick your poison, as they say. Republicans continue to break law after law and because we don’t have the political will to do anything about it, they get away with it.
And, soon enough, it will be conventional wisdom that the United States is no longer a democracy and, as such, at least 1 million wealthy, well educated American liberals will leave the United States altogether.
I hate the idea that the very people might be able to at least slow our slide into autocracy — Twitter liberals — are just going to give up and leave the country. And because I’m a poor fuck I’m going to be stuck holding the back and figuring out how to avoid being shot in the back of the head by an ICE agent when I get drunk and say something about President DeSantis being a fucking socksucker.
At the moment, at least, it definitely seems as though that’s my fate. It may not happen immediately after 2025 — it probably won’t — but it’s going to happen. Anyone like me who is a loudmouth crank is in danger of crossing the autocrat and ending up in a camp.
We’ve given up.
And, as such, I would suggest, if you can, to start gaming out where you’re going to live outside the United States once it’s an autocracy.
I’m no expert about any of this, so all of this is very speculative. So take that into consideration when reading. This is more me just doing one of my compulsive scenarios than any sort of definitive explanation.
One minor point –the last few months I’ve been getting the occasional ping to this Webste from China. I always assumed it was people connected to Tik-Tok annoyed that I was suggesting the service could read people’s mind. But what if it was people with Chinese intelligence interested in the political state of the United States? If you are a regular reader of this site, you will know that I have painted a very dire future for the United States.
Another thing — I think we’re probably at just the very early stages of any point in time where China might strike Taiwan. It would make a lot more sense for them to wait until at some point after 2025 when America will either be Fortress America or in the middle of a civil war to do anything against their wayward sisters in the South China Sea.
And, yet, I suppose the case could be made that there’s a lot going on inside China at the moment that nobody knows about and, as such, the Chinese might attack now, rather than wait until it’s obvious the United States is falling apart. The only reason why I even have started talking about all of this is I’ve begun to hear a minor amount of chatter about troop movements in China near Taiwan. And August is essentially here as of this writing, so…bingo?
Also, I could see China thinking that Biden is so old and the United States so divided that it would be difficult for the US to have a comprehensive approach to any Sino-Taiwanese War. This particular situation would only get worse, of course if more regional conflicts went hot and an actual WW3 began.
Talk about throwing American domestic politics for a loop!
Anyway. I have no idea. But is interesting to think about.
Let me be clear — I’m no expert on what’s going on between China and Taiwan these days, but I do love a good scenario. So, let’s run the scenario of what would happen if China went after Taiwan in August.
HT / The Sun
August, as you may know, sucks. So, it would make a lot of sense for China to start a war against Taiwan during the month. But the key thing to consider when approaching such a scenario is how the press would market it. If you have two major regional wars going on at the same time, it’s very easy to imagine that being marketed as “WW3” by the Western press.
That, until itself, would change the whole dynamic of the age. And, remember, the United States will face the existential choice of autocracy or civil war in late 2024, early 2025 so that would be another datapoint to consider if the two regional wars sparked an even broader conflict.
Think the Russian Empire during WW1, only this time it would be the United States being knocked out of commission by either turning into an America First autocracy or imploding into civil war.
And, what’s more, a Chinese attack on Taiwan would be a much bigger war than what’s happening between Russia and Ukraine at the moment. So, it’s possible that the DPRK might look at the attack on Taiwan as their last ever chance to do something against their brothers to the south. (This is extremely speculative on my part.)
Then, of course, there’s away Iran. They have already vowed to assassinate a few high profile leaders in the US. There could be a chain reaction whereby you have WW3 — Russia V. Ukraine, Iran V. the West, China V. Taiwan and the DPRK v. ROK.
Oh, and don’t forget! There’s always the risk that India and Pakistan would want to settle some scores along the way too.
And that, my friend, would be WW3, with all the combatants being forced to pick a side. Talk about a Great Reset! The whole post-WW2 world order would collapse and we would be going to the show. There would be no narrative and we would have no idea how things would end up until the end.
As I’ve often said, we’re past the Even Horizon when it comes to the existential choice of autocracy or civil war. And, in all honesty, that event probably actually happened some time ago. And not in 2016 when dingus Trump was elected — it probably happend the moment that Obama was re-elected.
Obama’s re-election tapped into something very visceral in the dark recesses of the American psyche and, lulz, here we are. Or, if you wanted to make things even more general — once the white percentage of the population reached a certain number other than 100%, we were fucking doomed.
Of late, there have been a few outbursts of liberal progressive rage against the rise of fascism in the United States. They have — to me at least — be very effective. Something about Jon Stewart flipping the fuck out over the dickhead nature of Senate Republicans has been very cathartic.
But. It’s probably too late.
We’ve given up. The forces that are tearing our democracy apart are just too powerful now. And in late 2024, early 2025 we’re going to be faced with the final choice — civil war or autocracy. And, as I keep saying, it’s not going to be a civil war started by Reds. At this point, that’s a very comical idea.
If there’s going to be a 2ACW, its going to be started by Blue States. Anyone who suggests otherwise (in general) is a total idiot who is too busy watching the shiny thin to notice what’s really going on.
I still think our fate is autocracy. It’s going to happen with a shrug. No one within the center-Left is going to put up any sort of fight. They’re all going to be too busy fleeing the country for the south of France to do any fighting.
Things are so depressing these days on the Trumplandia front, especially when it comes to January 6th. Much like how the Weimar Republic dealt with the rise of Nazism, there just isn’t the political will to do anything about the growth of fascist cancer.
At the moment, it appears as though American democracy will come to an end sometimes around 2025. Unless, of course, there’s a National Divorce and, as such, a Second American Civil War. And despite however much MAGA is foaming at the mouth to start a civil war — it won’t be them who do it. In the extremely unlikely event of a 2ACW, it will be Blues who start it.
There is no crime that Trump or his coterie of idiots can break that they will ever be held accountable for. And, given there is a deadline of Janaury 2025 to deal with, the judicial system is just too slow to ever get around to do anything even if it was so inclined.
So, that’s it. Barring something I just can’t predict, we’re going to become a MAGA New Right themed autocracy. It’s all happening in broad daylight with our eyes wide open. We just don’t have the political will to do anything about Trump.
And the reason is two fold.
One, autocracy is so popular that we’ve kind of just given up. Too many people want to believe the lies that Trump sells and so they are willful in their desire for Trump to come back and put the finishing touches on ending American democracy via Schedule F and other ideas.
Meanwhile, the American center-Left is extremely ineffectual, divided, misguided and old (most of the time) to do anything head on to address the rise of fascism.
Put those two things together and you have a massive historical clusterfuck that may lead to more people dying than the rise of the Nazis in Germany.
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