Be The Power
by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
No matter what happens in the next few years, we are currently living through the “Before Times.” Something really big is going to happen not just in the United States but across the globe.
I say that because no matter what America decides to do, be it civil war or autocracy, there’s a good chance that the existing world order will be destroyed and something akin to WW3 might happen.
Anyway, good luck.
You’re going to need it.
by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
There are two flashpoints that I could see sparking any possible Second American Civil War — California and New York City. Let’s go through two scenarios.
California
When it becomes clear that we’ve slipped into autocracy after the theft of the 2024 election the Bear State Republic holds a snap Secessionist Convention. Given that this would be illegal and there’s no real way for this to happen, this would, by definition, start a civil war of some sort. Probably there would be a “Phony War” at first while the MAGA Federal government tried to figure out what to do about the situation. If Trump is president under this scenario, then, lulz, he’ll probably use nukes because he’s stupid and deranged.
New York City
With this scenario, the same type of thing happens, but instead of California leading the way, the population of New York City collectively freaks the fuck out and they storm the offices of places like The Wall Street Journal, The New York Post and FOX News. They also take Trump Tower in some way. This, in turn, would cause the deranged Trump to strike back in some severe manner which would cause Blue States to begin to leave the Union one right after the other.
A house divided against itself cannot stand. I believe this government cannot endure, permanently half slave and half free. I do not expect the Union to be dissolved – I do not expect the house to fall – but I do expect it will cease to be divided. It will become all one thing, or all the other. — Abraham Lincoln
by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
The above quote from Lincoln sums up my current view on the fate of the United States between now and January 2025. The difference between the two sides has grown so extreme that we’re either going to entirely MAGA or we have a civil war that leads to the destruction of one of the two sides and we’re unified that way.
Though, I have to note that it’s very unlikely that in this modern world that any Second American Civil War would have an ending as pat as the first. What’s more likely to happen if there is a 2ACW is a permanent division of the United States into, say, the United States of Canada and Trumplandia.
I say this because of what the war aims of the Blue States would be — simply to leave the Union and not have to worry about living under the MAGA jackboot. It would be MAGA that would want to control the entire territory of the United States. So, in a sense, the dynamic of the First American Civil War would be switched with the center-Left simply wanting to leave the Union while the center-Right wanting to keep the Union together.
But a lot would depend what type of leadership bubbled up to the surface as we progressed towards making our final decision of autocracy or civil war. I still think that the “radical moderates” of the #NeverTrumper movement will be the leadership of Blue States. I mean, Goddamn, is Liz Cheney the type of Margaret Thatcher type leader that Blue States would need should the shit hit the fan.
The Red States, meanwhile, have a shit ton of leaders to draw upon. I can think of a dozen really strong MAGA Republicans who could populate the leadership of the rump USA should there be a secession crisis that leads to a civil war. But one thing is clear — if you think there can be a peaceful National Divorce, you’re a fool or full of shit.
Any “national divorce” would, by definition, be extremely violent and involve weapons of mass destruction.
Anyway, the point is — things are very unstable in the United States right now. Things could go either way. We could simply shrug and become a Russian-style autocracy, or we could have a violent “national divorce” that will directly and indirectly lead to the death of millions.
by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
For want of a better term, I think I’m going to call whatever it is that is going to happen around 2023 – 2025 “the Big Ugly.” We’re in for a bumpy ride and we need a name for the time when we’re figuring out if we want to blow ourselves up or if we want to turn into an autocracy.
Anyway, I’ve long suggested that the fate of Blue States will hang with what I call “Radical Moderates.” These are people who, because of the necessity of history rise to the occasion, regardless of what their actual political views are in more normal times.
As such, I’ve come to believe that what is a rather marginal group at the moment — the #NeverTrumpers — will, once the Big Ugly is in full force, become crucial to the fate of the United States. Take, for instance, Liz Cheney. She’s just the type of person to become a leader within the Blue State national government should things come to that.
I’m still not 100% sure such a thing is going to happen — we could just gradually (and peacefully) become a Russian style autocracy. But we take the more tragic option of secession then a Second American Civil War, the #NeverTrumpers and specifically Liz Cheney could do some pretty historic things.
Like, Abraham Lincoln level type things.
But that’s just a possibility.
And, yet, I could see Liz Cheney (and other #NeverTrumpers) filling the leadership void that the center-Left in the United States currently suffers. Outside of a few people like AOC, the cupboard is bare when it comes to the type of tough as nails leadership that any Blue State Republic would need should we have any type of hot civil war.
But, for the moment, all of that is kind of crazy talk. All the keyboard warriors of Twitter at the moment would have to start to risk things important to them in the real world for anything like that to happen.
What’s more likely to happen is, all the Blue Check Liberals will be cowards and flee the country in droves. So, instead of staying organize any form of real-world resistance within Blue States to the fascist MAGA federal government, they’ll spend all their time drinking wine in the south of France where they’ll be the White Russians of the 21st Cenutry.
In other words, unless something changes, we’re fucked.
by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
There is every reason to believe that when the moment comes at some point around late 2024 to early 2025, Blue States will “bend the knee” to MAGA. Given the general trends we’ve seen over the last few decades, there is every reason for the typical American to believe that when the time comes that knee bending will happen.
And, yet, there is a lingering possibility that rather than bending a knee, Blue States — probably starting with California — may make a move to leave the Union. Which, of course, would inevitably lead to a civil war.
But at the moment in 2022, I really struggle to see either a Secession Crisis or a civil war. It definitely seems as though we’re going to simply shrug and slip into autocracy and that will be that.
Every time I come to this conclusion, however, I find myself mulling how it there might be major political violence around 2024 – 2025. It seems, as the moment, that the crux of the risk of a civil war has a lot to do with Trump. Orange Ding-Dong is so stupid and lazy that he, unto himself, could push us into civil war.
If he says “the quiet part out loud” and rubs the theft of the 2024 election by Bannon’s “spiritual shock troops” in the face of Blue States, that, unto itself, could be enough to push the United States into civil war. If, for whatever reason, it’s Ron DeSantis who is the Republican nominee in 2024, the likelihood of a civil war is far, far less.
DeSantis is a traditional politician and, as such, he would be able to maintain the control enough to slip past the weak moment America’s final transition from anocracy to autocracy. He would be able to sooth the fears of Blue States long enough to seize control. Then all notable liberal leaders will flee the United States and that will be that.
We’ll become an autocracy without a shot being fired.
This whole situation is complicated by the growing radicalization of the MAGA New Right. They could very well go out of their way to specifically rile the center-Left up in an misguided attempt to “own” them. The entire edifice of the Republican Party is now growing more and more anti-democratic, autocratic and fascist.
And if Trump is the Republican nominee in 2024, as it seems he might be at the moment, then…the chance that we’ll have a civil war increases significantly. Trump is so bonkers and idiotic that he, unto himself, could be the cause of a Second American Civil War in 2024.
It makes you wonder, of course, if, from a psychohistorical standpoint that we were supposed to have a civil war in 2020 and Trump just wasn’t up to his historical job. But we simply can’t punt the question of autocracy or civil war down the road forever.
That particular question is going to be answered within the next presidential election cycle or two.
by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
I’ve started to think a lot about the potential economics of a Second American Civil War. On the face of it, my smart friend’s belief that I’m full of shit when it comes to believing we’re careening towards a civil war around 2025 is very valid. His dismissal of my fears on economic grounds make a lot of sense.
As long as plutocrats are making money, they don’t give a shit about how poor women in Red States can’t get an abortion.
And, yet, I struggle to accept this pat dismissal.
There are at least two reasons why I still think a Second American Civil War is still on the table for around 2025. The first reason is something that Republicans harp on all the time — the “woke” nature of Fortune 500 companies. As such, the case can be made that when the time comes, Woke Corporations will at least sit on their hands should Blue States get so angry with Red States that they leave the Union (or try to).
The other, bigger issue, is the continued bonkers radicalization of the MAGA New Right. If they were willing to simply turn Red States into a dystopian hellscape, then, yes, there wouldn’t be much economic reason Blue States to leave the Union.
And, yet, at its very core, MAGA’s vision is the total control of the entirety of the United States — Red and Blue. And that’s when the existential choice of autocracy or civil war happens for Blue States.
When it becomes clear that all three branches of the Federal government are permanently out to get Blue States and have a very radical agenda they want to implement nationally, there is every reason to believe Blue States may begin to leave the Union and we have a massive, catastrophic Second American Civil War that lasts years and involves WMD.
It probably won’t have a tidy endgame and it will totally redraw the political geography of North America. We could end up with The United States of Canada and Trumplandia and that would be that.
I can’t predict the future. I don’t have any reveled truth, but I’m not quite prepared to dismiss the possibility of a Second American Civil War entirely. But Blue States definitely have to decide one way or another — will they “bend a knee” to radical MAGA themed autocracy, or will they fight for what they believe in?
I dunno. Could go either way.
by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
For all the Sturm und Drang on the Right about who the leaker of the preliminary SCOTUS ruling is, it seems there is one person with the means, motive and opportunity. There is the chief suspect — Ginni Thomas.
First, let’s talk about SCOTUS clerks. It makes no sense that either a liberal or a conservative clerk would leak this thing. It would ruin their career once they’re inevitable found out.
And, yet, there is one person very close to the court who is proven to be totally bonkers and extreme and that’s Justice Clarence Thomas’ wife Ginni. They are EXTREMELY CLOSE and, as such, it’s not too much to believe that Ginni would have access to the preliminary ruling.
I have no inside information. I’m just speculating. But it all I can tell you is the moment we find out I’m right, the controversy over who leaked this ruling will go down the memory hole.
by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
Things are kind of depressing right now in the United States. People keep telling me that I’m being “terribly negative” or “hysterical” to suggest that there is a greater-than-zero sum possibility of a Second American Civil War starting around 2025.
Other people have told me that “rich people won’t let a civil war happen” because no one gives a shit about poor women in Red States not being able to have an abortion. If it doesn’t hurt their bottom line then the wealthy of Blue States will not object to a new MAGA dystopian hellscape and will support Blue States “bending a knee” to our new MAGA overlords.
And, yet, I keep thinking how, in principle, the reason why liberals in Blue States are so angry over the overturning of Roe is very similar to what happened to Slave Power around the time Lincoln was elected. There will come a moment of truth for center-Left America.
Once we bend a knee to the end of reproductive rights not just in Red States but across America, we’re going down a slippery slope towards the entirety of the United States being politically identical to modern Russia.
And that’s the element of all of this that people are missing, I think — MAGA is so dumb and politically greedy that they could very well push America to the breaking point simply because they want to “own” liberals with a jackboot to the face for eternity.
There could be a point, around Certification Day 2025, when Blue States, rather than bending a knee, begin to leave the Union because MAGA has grow so radical and haughty that they won’t see any other option. But there are a lot of obstacles to this happening.
The monied elites of America really would have every reason to “bend a knee” to fascism as long as they could still make money. But there could come a point when the extreme ideology of MAGA is so severe that the average American in Blue States begin to risk their lives for abstracts rather than cold hard cash. Or, put another way, it’s possible that what is seen as an abstract now — something like “reproductive rights” will become concrete in the minds of millions of Blue Staters and, as such, we have a civil war.
And, yet, we’re still too far out for me to be able to game things out.
Right now, it seems very obvious that the center-Left is to weak in the US and we’re just going to peacefully slide into autocracy. But the official overturn of Roe is yet another stressor on an already weak American political system.
We’re just going to have to wait and see, I guess.
by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
The First Civil War was a war of different economic systems. You had Slave Power in the South and Free Labor in the North. All the other ostensible causes of the First Civil War sprang from that conflict in views about labor. I think a lot about the possibility of a Second American Civil War. I have a friend who is smarter than me who says I’m full of shit on the matter — rich people don’t give a fuck about poor women not being able to have abortions.
As such, lulz, if there choice is between autocracy and civil war, we’re just going to become an autocracy.
And, yet, I just don’t believe that history is all about economics. And, if you really wanted to get nitty-gritty about it the United States is tearing itself apart on an economic basis as well.
Because the Right is ascendant and the United States is now an anocracy rather than a democracy, the Right is able to force Blue States to “bend a knee” for anything they want — be it social or fiduciary policy.
Also — Blue States economies are more modern and forward looking than Red State economies. Blue States generate more economic output and are, generally service and technology based. Meanwhile, Red States are more based on rural economic output.
The point is –I’m just not prepared to dismiss that we’re going to have a Second American Civil War. We may, indeed, just slip peacefully into autocracy, but it hasn’t happened yet.
by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
I’m beginning to wonder if maybe all my jokes about the bolts popping off the United States should be taken a bit more seriously. It definitely feels as if we’ve reached a new era of lawlessness. If it’s not Trump being above the law, it’s people jumping onto stage to attack performers.
If my history serves me correctly, the vibe was similar in the late 1850s. People definitely had a sense that the country was tearing itself apart. The issue is, we need to come to grips with the idea that we’re on a historic macro political “vibe shift” one way or another between now and about 2025.
I can’t predict the future, so I don’t know what it’s going to be, but Something Big is on its way. As I keep saying, I think it’s an existential choice of autocracy or civil war around 2024 – 2025.
I vacillate widely between thinking we’re going to have a civil war and thinking we’re just going to give up and become an autocracy. I honestly don’t know which one is going to happen.
But I will say that SCOTUS is doing us no favors one way or another by overturning Roe. Doing so, in hindsight, could very well be seen as something similar to the Dred Scott decision that definitely was a ping from a civil war about to come.
And, remember, there is, in fact, an economic element to Roe being overturned. If Republicans get greedy and try to turn not just Red States into an anti-feminist dystopian hellscape, oh boy. If it becomes apparent to enough people in, say, California that all three branches are in permanent, firm control of MAGA then there is at least a non-zero chance of a secession crisis that would lead to a civil war.
But l honestly don’t know. It really could go either way.
I think some of the resistance to taking the idea of a Second American Civil War seriously is it just is difficult for the average person to process. People think I’m being hysterical and “terribly negative” because they have a basic belief in the system.
But just look around. Anything to do with Trumplandia is above the law. Trump and his entire coterie keep breaking the law and nothing happens. That makes every0ne — even if it’s subconsciously — begin to think that our systems of law don’t mean anything.
And, really, it could go either way — either we slide peacefully into a Russian-style autocracy and we no longer have to worry about things seeming to fall apart, or things completely fall apart into violent chaos and we only return to “normal” after the end of a civil war.
Don’t know which one we’re going to choose. The next indication of what’s going to happen will be when the overturn of Roe officially goes into effect. If liberals freak out in the real world instead of just being keyboard warriors, then maybe a civil war is more likely to happen than autocracy.
Then the next test will be what happens with the 2022 midterms.
Either outcome could cause a massive clusterfuck. If Republicans lose, they could get so mad that there is significant violence. If Democrats lose because of the administration of elections is now officially corrupt, then, too, there is a chance that will que up violence as soon as 2023.
Just don’t know.
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