What We Have Here Is, A Dead Shark


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We have to stop thinking of the United States as a democracy. At best, we’re an anocracy and probably now something closer to a pre-fascist state. Occasionally, I will toy with the idea that maybe we’re going down the high risk, I rereward path of civil war…then I dismiss this idea out of hand.

Blue Check liberals are fucking cowards and when the time comes in late 2024 – early 2025, they’re going to head for the doors. The bent-up rage of the MAGA New Right is so potent — and anti-MAGA forces so weak-willed — that, lulz, the fight will be over before it begins.

And you have to look no further than what’s going on with abortion rights at the moment. That particular debate is over — and the “pro-Life” forces have won. The only thing that’s undecided at the moment is if there is a simple overturn of Roe V. Wade, or if SCOTUS completely flips things so it’s impossible to get a legal abortion in the United States.

That particular datapoint has yet to be determined.

While the center-Left is fighting amongst itself over who is the most woke, or which pronouns to use, or how extreme they can be about transgender rights, the MAGA New Right is slowly but surely collecting real power that it’s using as a bludgeon against what’s left of our democracy.

We’re already a white, autocratic Christian ethnostate, but for one thing — Republicans don’t control the White House or Capitol Hill. Once they changes, which it surely will eventually, that’s it. We’ll go from being an autocracy without an autocrat to just an autocracy.

And I still think by no later than 2040 the United States and Russia will be politically identical. And loudmouth cranks like me will be long dead at the hands of ICE.

So, if you have the means to get out of the country, do so. God speed.

What The War In Ukraine Can Tell Us About A Possible Future Second American Civil War


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I still believe we’re going to slip peacefully into autocracy. Gradually at first with accelerating speed. But it hasn’t happened yet, so I suppose it’s possible that we might have a civil war.

The chief thing we have to factor in is how mobile everyone will be during the whole process. It’s very possible that Canada will be overwhelmed with American refugees. And that doesn’t even begin to address the few million wealthy Twitter liberals who will flee the country because they’re fucking cowards.

But there are differences from what’s going on in Ukraine — the primary one being it seems to me obvious that WMD will be used by both sides from early on in the conflict. So, we won’t have any idea what the fuck is going on.

The whole thing will be a clusterfuck. And it’s possible once the country collapses there won’t be any clear endgame. We’ll just collapse and that will be that. Some form of Trumplandia will be formed and millions of center-Left people will flee its creation, which will even jiggle the demographics of what was once the United States even more.

Any Second American Civil War is going to be a quantum leap worse than what’s going on in Ukraine at the moment.

The MAGA New Right Is Ascendant


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I keep saying, enjoy these last few months of living in a Western democracy. Things are going to change rather abruptly in January 2023 when Republicans take control of Congress. All they’re going to do is go on fishing expeditions looking for some reason, any reason to impeach both Biden and Harris.

And it is well with the realm of possibility that we may face a Speaker Trump at that point, too. If that happens, then the United States is going to grow far, far more unstable.

The thing that so many Twitter liberals are oblivious to is how ascendant MAGA is. The MAGA movement is so ascendant that there is a reasonable reason to believe that Trump (or whomever is the Republican nominee) will win outright and there won’t be any need for them to cheat — even though obviously they will just because that’s who they are.

A key element to all of this is the rage of conservative white men over what they feel are “radical” social changes over the last decade or so. Or, put another way, something about Obama’s second term fried their minds. They’re now just rage machines who will stop at nothing to establish an autocracy. They are very clear that they no longer believe in democracy and fuck you lib.

You see this everywhere these days. White Christian men in the United States feel very alienated and disenfranchise and, as such, they look forward to autocracy. They are so blinded by their orthodoxy, in fact, that they don’t really think through the implications of what happens once they get what they want. I say this because I know that I, specifically, will likely be in the crosshairs of a newly weaponized ICE whenever that should become a reality.

My divided family won’t be alone — families all over the nation where some members are MAGA and some aren’t are going to have to confront a internal division so severe that the civil war was the last time anything like it has been experience.

A lot of people think all of this is “hysterical doom shit,” but I struggle to see any other endgame. And, barring a civil war, our transition into a Russian-style autocracy may take long enough that a lot — and I mean a lot — of people will laugh at me in the meantime.

But at the end of the process I’ll be proven correct.

If The ‘All-In’ Podcast Represents Silicon Valley, We’re Doomed


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m of the opinion that you need to expose yourself to ideas you don’t agree with so you build up the mental antibodies necessary to be self-confident in what you believe in. And, yet, here I am being irritated by some of the comments I’ve heard on the “All-In” podcast.

I have nothing against any of the guys on the show and it is interesting and informative. It’s just the more I think about it, the more angry I get at how a number of the participants have thrown their lot in with MAGA. They should know better, and, yet, they apparently want Trump back because they believe in the fascist “leadership principle.”

It’s amazing to me to hear intelligent, well educated people advocate for an orange ding-dong like Trump. What the what? I guess money can’t buy you taste. But it doesn’t stop there.

They also believe the MAGA New Right has the right to spread disinformation on everything from COVID19 to Trump numerous and well documented crimes. Again, I just don’t get it. And they’re so self-assured and smug about supporting fascism.

They cherry pick the data points of the Trump Era that fit their needs, totally ignoring what a massive clusterfuck it was otherwise. It’s staggering how it’s possible any self-aware person could willfully buy into such bullshit.

There is no excuse for supporting MAGA for any reason. But I guess if you want an autocratic fascist state where you, as a billionaire, get to play the role of American oligarch, then the idea that tyranny will have descended across the land of the free is a lulz.

It’s Like We’ve All Given Up


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I don’t know how much of this is the final Big Shrug before we either have a civil war or turn into an autocracy and how much of it is we’ve passed the event horizon for the Fourth Turning — but America feels pretty fucked right now.

Every day, Republicans prove that they have, on a systemic, existential basis become radicalized to the point of being old school fascists. They no longer believe in traditional American democracy and, as such, they will abuse any power they regain to ensure that they never give it up.

There are two upcoming events that will definitely give us some insight into our ultimate fate.

  1. The End of Roe V. Wade
    In the next few months, the Roe decision is either going to be gutted so as to be moot or overturned altogether. If this gets a lot of women woke and there are massive protests across the country, that will be sign to me that we’re more likely to have a civil war than slip peacefully into autocracy. But there is a lot of grumbling, but ultimately nothing of note happens — autocracy it is.
  2. January 2023
    Another datapoint that will give us a very good sign as to our fate is how much Republicans abuse the power afforded them by controlling Congress again. If they go nuts and we have Speaker Trump who leads multiple impeachments of both Biden and Harris — we’re probably going to have a civil war. Or, more specifically, if they’re hijinks are so extreme that this leads to a radicalization of the center-Left…we’re going to have a civil war. If the center-Left continues to sleepwalk through history despite Republicans going nuts, then we’re just going to slip peacefully into autocracy.

But the fact remains that American politics grows more and more extreme by the day and there will come a point when either we get a Republican autocrat in power who becomes an American Putin or…we have a civil war. Some pretty big things would have to happen for us to have a civil war in 2024 – 2025 at the moment.

We’re just not there yet.

I still think that most Twitter liberals are just going to leave the country. The seething rage of MAGA will become the bedrock of autocratic rule and things will go from bad to worse at an alarming rate.

And while I know my far more conservative relatives think it’s laughable to think that they’re going to have to face a person decision about my fate when we become an autocracy, I still believe this is the case.

I simply will never shut up — I don’t even know if I could if I wanted to — and, as such, they’re either going to have to turn me in or suffer the consequences of being associated with me.

I have no idea how that’s going to play out.

The ‘All-In’ Podcast Is Really Giving 1930s German Industrialists A Run For Their Money



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m hardcore dreamer and, as such, I like to keep tabs on what’s going on in Silicon Valley. I occasionally find myself listening to the “All-In” podcast. It’s usually interesting and informative and generally fun to get some sense of what tech bros “smartest guys in the room” are thinking about these days.

And then, sometimes, out of the blue, it gets really dark.

Several of the regulars on the podcast simply can not, will not shut up about how much they love Trump. What they’re really saying is they don’t believe in something as pedestrian as democracy and they want a nation run by the fascist concept of the “leadership principle.” They even occasionally come out and say it when they blurt out that they wish, “Elon Musk could be named king of America” or some such.

It’s all very frustrating because they cherry pick the elements of the Trumplandia era that fit their pre-conceived narrative. They praise Trump for “keeping us out of war” because he was a “populist” while totally ignoring the complete supernova of bullshit and anarchy that otherwise was his administration.

This seems very reminiscent of why German industrialists loved Hitler so much before, well, you know. He “made Germany great again” by managing inflation and you know the rest.

And, in all honesty, people who support Trump like those on All-In are, by far, the absolute worst form of MAGA. They should know better! And, yet, here we are. Because of a combination of greed and misguided contrarianism they support Trump and the rise of autocracy in the United States.

It’s stuff like this that again makes me think we’ve passed the event horizon for tyranny in the United States. When people who should know better willfully embrace autocracy, then, well, lulz, nothing matters. I suppose when autocracy comes to the United States they will find themselves in a situation similar to Russian oligarchs. They will travel freely around the world, and their lives won’t be any different — in fact, they will be better because they’ll pay even less taxes than they do today.

Of course, there is always the risk that there will be a civil war and these American oligarchs will be on the wrong side of history should the Blue States win. Now THAT would be interesting.

But I still don’t think we’re having a civil war. We’re just going to peacefully slip into autocracy, the All-In podcast participants cheering all the way.

Lulz, Nothing Matters


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I know I’m just a loser nobody in the middle of nowhere, but sometimes being a power Twitter user can grow frustrating — Twitter liberals are completely oblivious to the New Normal we live in.

Not only do Republicans no longer believe in democracy, they’re so wrapped up in their MAGA New Right orthodoxy that they no longer believe in facts that don’t fit their own recursive narrative. They get all bent out of shape — usually on Joe Rogan’s podcast — about the “media narrative” when it’s they themselves who have a very, very strict narrative of their own.

They say post-factual is pre-fascist and that’s just about where we are right now in the United States. Republicans believe what they believe because they believe it and fuck you, libtards. It is self evident that they have no shame and are politically above the law.

Then they turn around and rant about this or that thing that may have been found on Hunter Biden’s laptop.

The point is — we’re passed the event horizon for Something Big happening int the United States between now and around Certification Day 2025. At the moment, I’m of the opinion that we’re going to slip peacefully into autocracy. Initially, nothing will really change and Mueller, She Wrote will continue to think I’m just a crank who won’t stop tweeting about “doom shit.”

And then, over the course of the next few years, about a million center-Left people will leave the United States as it grows ever more clear that the MAGA New Right’s autocratic white Christian ethnostate vision of America is becoming a reality.

By about 2030, the United States will be well on its way to be a political clone of Putin’s Russia. And, at last, white conservative men will no longer have to worry about being “canceled” because they had a tone deaf slip of the tongue that got recorded and then went viral. They will be the bedrock of our autocratic America and that will be that.

There will occasionally be huge protests, but, lulz, nothing will come of it. There will be near-constant talk about how this or that thing might finally bring down America’s autocrat….but nothing happens. We’re going to wake up at some point about 20 years from now and realize we’ve had the same president for a generation.

I keep writing about this and wondering to myself if I’m missing something. Is there some way that my “hysterical doom shit” prediction of autocracy or civil war being our choice in late 2024 – early 2025 could be wrong? As of right now, I just can’t think of anything.

Republicans are, by definition, fascists. They’re bloodthirsty and radicalized on a systemic, existential basis to the point that the only way they may ever be removed from power once they get it again is they are so bloodthirsty that they’re deposed like Pol Pot. But by then, of course, millions of Americans will be very, very dead.

But that’s very speculative. A more likely scenario is we just drift into autocracy and that’s it. There will be abuses now and again that get people riled up, but in general, the entire very unpopular MAGA New Right agenda will be enacted and America will circle the drain.

We’ll be poorer, more inward looking and allies with other autocracies like Russia, Hungary and Turkey. That will be our new normal and the “woke” era will finally, at last, come to an end because, well, we’re going to live in a political dystopian hellscape.

Good luck.

Blue Check Liberals Are Fucking Cowards Who Will Flee The Country As American Autocracy Is Established


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It’s an open secret that a lot of well known liberals are making contingency plans on how to leave the country should Trump and MAGA gain power again in 2025. They’re getting the second passport, for instance. It’s developments like these that lead me to believe that in our nation’s time of need — from Election Day 2024 to Certification Day 2025 — the people who would otherwise lead some sort of real world resistance to tyranny will simply say, “So long, suckers.”

And that will be that.

Starting at some point after Election Day 2024 when it becomes clear which direction things are going to go — I’m of the opinion that Republicans may win the 2024 election outright without any cheating — somewhere upwards of 1 million center-Left people will begin to leave the United States.

They have the means, motive and opportunity to do so and so they will. They won’t think about how they’re needed to save American democracy or figure out a way to actively resist the MAGA fascist state. They will leave the nation of their birth and not look back.

Or, let me put it to you this way — fleeing the country will be the initial reaction of a huge swath of the liberal elite. It won’t be until there’s some sign that they have a reason to come back, say a civil war in which Blue States win, will they come waltzing back as if nothing happened.

I don’t think enough people appreciate how dire things are becoming in the United States right now. The moment the Republicans take over Congress in January 2023, the mood of the country is going to change dramatically. All Congress is going to do is impeach Biden and Harris for two years. The Senate will never get anything done — any more than usual — because they’ll be sitting in impeachment trials all the time.

Anyway, this is it, folks. All my “hysterical doom shit” will gradually, starting January 20th, 2025 start to become true. There may be some delay because of inertia and the lingering influence of “the deep state,” but within a few years we’ll have a Constitutional Convention to “pass a balance budget amendment” and our final slide into fascist autocracy will be complete.

Meanwhile, Blue Check liberals will be sipping pinacolatos in the south of France.

The Late, Great United States


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m beginning to feel like I have a better understanding how it felt to the average person in the waning days of the Roman Empire. It definitely seems as we’ve all collectively just given up. The fascists are ascendant and right now, the only question is do we collapse into civil war or do we slip peacefully into autocracy.

At the moment, all signs point to the latter. Not only is the center-Left more worried about their pronouns than they are how to meaningfully address the rise of American autocracy, the mainstream press is willfully complicit in the transformation of the United States from democracy to anocracy to, finally autocracy.

This happens at the same time that most conservative Traditionalists believe the press is wildly slanted against them.

It’s all very surreal.

A lot of our political problems stem from how muddled everything is. It’s difficult for any sort of anti-fascist narrative to develop when the people who would be central to it — conservative Traditionalists blanch at what the center-Left is currently passionate about. The center-Left continues to shoot itself in the foot by ranting about things that are easily packaged as the “Woke Agenda.” It’s enough to make you fear that we’ve passed the event horizon of some sort of “Fourth Turning” around 2025.

We simply can no longer punt this crisis down the road. I struggle to see how we survive the passions of another presidential election cycle. And all of this is happening in broad daylight. It’s not like it’s a secret. That’s why I think we’ve all collectively given up on democracy in America.

Our faith in democracy will only be renewed via a civil war in which the Blue States win. I definitely do not want that, but that seems our fate. If there’s not a civil war, then we become a Russian-style autocracy and there really will be a “Great Reset,” only not in the way paranoid MAGA people think.

I suppose I could still be wrong — I’m wrong all the time — but something pretty big would have to happen for that to be the case. And, remember, the issue is not so much Trump winning in 2024, it’s who is successor will be. Trump is dangerous, but not as dangerous as a President DeSantis, or Cotton, or Hawley….the list goes on. The entire Republican Party on an existential basis no longer believes in traditional American democracy and once they have power again that’s it.

They will consolidate power to the point that we wake up 20 years from now and talk about Generation DeSantis or Cotton, or Hawley, or whomever. It doesn’t help that the people who would lead any real world resistance to this — Blue Check liberals — will simply leave the country.

This is an eerie calm before the storm. Enjoy this brief respite from tyranny while you still can.

The Inevitable Endgame Of The Current ‘Groomer’ Canard


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I mention a lot, Ernest Hemmingway said people go bankrupt, “Suddenly, then all at once.” I’m growing more and more alarmed that this very thing is playing out in American politics right now. What I’m talking about is the rise of the notion within MAGA rants that much of the anti-MAGA movement is full of “groomers” is enough to give one pause for thought.

I say this because we’re careening towards a day in the not too distant future when MAGA dismisses anyone who doesn’t follow their orthodoxy as a “groomer.” I already see this happening in real time on Twitter. And, as we know, the MAGA orthodoxy has become so absolute that to be Republican is to dismiss anyone you don’t agree with out of hand. If that’s not a corrosive development, I don’t know what is.

This plays into my dread about what is going to happen starting January 2023 when Republicans take control of Congress again. When you have about 48% of the electorate who thinks people they don’t agree with are “groomers” that’s a recipe for disaster.

The two sides continue to recede from each other at an alarming rate. This is happening to the point we’re definitely on track to either a civil war or autocracy starting in the late 2024, early 2025 timeframe.

I continue to believe that because Blue Check liberals are all cowards that we’re going to slip peacefully into autocracy. There will be a lot of talk about a civil war, but in the end, nothing will come of it because rather than standing a fighting, the people who would lead any Blue civil war effort will simply leave the country.

Not that I want a civil war, but the idea that we’ll have a civil war is fading fast in my opinion. So, what’s more likely to happen is we become an autocracy and gradually, over the course of a few decades the United States and Russia will become politically identical.

I wish I had some simple answer to all of this, but I don’t. Good luck.