Forward Deployed


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have lost everything a few times in my life. And, yet, I’ve managed to survive with little more than the clothes on my back. Living in South Korea for five years gave me a very good understanding of my personal skillset. I’m good at abstract and strategic thinking and I’m good in a crisis.

The only reason why I mention any of this the same spidey sense that has managed to get me out of more than one scrap over the years is really beginning to tingle violently. I’m a man of peace. A man of ideas. But damn if I’m going to sit on my hands if the nation I love so much implodes because of a fucking failed TV gameshow host.

But I’m well aware I’m a rando nobody. I don’t even have a Blue Check on Twitter. No one listens to me and they probably shouldn’t, no matter what I say.

And, yet, Something Big is about to happen to the United States in a future that can be counted in months. As it stands, for personal reasons, if my absolute worst fears are realized — civil war / revolution — I’m just going to hunker down. I might try to organize some sort of neighborhood defense if it really got THAT bad.

My absolute worst fear, however, is that simply isn’t going to be enough. My fear is, because of my politics, I’m going to be forced out of my rural MAGA community. I’m going to lose everything AGAIN. If that happens, I head north towards NYC.

The thinking is, if I’m forced out of my town because of my politics, I won’t be alone. It’s not like I’m just going to be a lone Blue person walking north. There’s likely to be so many people doing that same thing that some sort of infrastructure will be built out to accommodate us. As such, I’m going to try to make my way to NYC for no other reason that I have a huge ego and think I can use my personal skillset to make some sort of difference.

Of course, if you think I’m being extremely delusional, you’re probably right. But, like I said, I’m not going to watch idly by while tyranny puts Lady Columbia under a jackboot.

I hate that I even have to think like this now. I think, in all honesty, that Trump’s going to “win” without incident (rather mysteriously) on Election Night and we’ll just continue our drift towards an autocratic managed democracy. If I have to start worrying about being snatched off the street or pushed out a window because of my political views, then, so be it.

But the key thing about crisis management is knowing you’re in a crisis in the first place. We’re in a crisis. It’s up to us to figure out how it all gets sorted out.

Keep the faith, patriots.

Countdown To Implosion: A Very American Coup (And Counter-Coup)


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about what’s going on right now is it’s difficult, if not impossible, to figure out how serious Trump is about staging A Very American Coup and how much is him simply hedging his bets. Trump may simply want a wide-array of options to choose from.

And, remember, Trump must know by this point that Russian hackers are going to (attempt) to directly change the results of the 2020 election by hacking directly into our election computer systems. As such, that MIGHT be the real explanation behind the odd decision on the part of the Trump Campaign to go dark with their advertising in key battleground states right before the election. Trump is lulzing it because he knows nothing matters at this point — the fix is in.

Anyway, let’s imagine he decides to go ahead with his Very American Coup. What happens?

The Coup
The key thing you have to remember is Interior Minister Bill Bar is going to fuck with the election in a very “Who, me?” kind of way. He did it with the Mueller Investigation and he’s going to do it with the election. In fact, I would go so far as to say his success in blunting the blow of Mueller Investigation has given him a very good understanding of what to do.

As long as House Trump controls the post-election narrative, they win. As things grow more and more unhinged, the pressure will be on Biden to accept “defeat” for the “sake of the country.” So, it’s easy to see a situation whereby somehow even though a coup takes place, The New York Times and others play right into Barr’s hands by not even recognizing that a coup has taken place.

And, really, Barr has every reason to believe he will win. So, it’s very possible that even if MAGA state legislatures simply seat Trump Electors out of spite, a wide swath of the mainstream press will go full Vichy on us. I could see this being the setup to not a civil war, but a fucking revolution.

In other words, House Trump and Barr pretty brazenly steal the election post-Election night by fucking with the selection of Electors. The New York Times‘ Maggie Haberman in a ever-so-droll way, signs away the Republic. She poo-poos the notion that anyone has the right to object to this theft and goes back to telling randos like me that I don’t know anything about (access) journalism.

So, this would be a moment of truth. I honestly can’t tell you which way the public would go. There might be some protestings here and there, but Barr controls the media narrative so completely that The New York Times focuses only on the violences associated with these otherwise peaceful protests and that’s it. We turn into an autocracy without even putting up a fight. Remember, the Women’s March has some pretty huge peaceful protests every year and the national press lulzes them because it’s just a bunch of angry broads, amiright?

The Counter-Coup
This is very iffy because of what I describe above. But let’s say Trump, despite “winning” so absolutely brazen in his theft of the election that he enrages enough of the population that Nancy Pelosi finally, finally, finally, finally, FINALLY really begins to play white knuckled power politics with Trump. She begins a game of chicken with him.

Now, the thing to remember is, there are a lot of different things that would have to go wrong for Trump for this to happen. A lot. He’s going to bank on a hard 5-4 vote in his favor at SCOTUS if it comes to that. And he’ll be right. But it’s at least possible that out of sheer desperation, Pelosi drops an H-bomb on Trump’s plans to steal the election.

She announces soon after the last 5-4 SCOTUS vote a two pronged attack against Trump’s coup. First, the House will immediately impeach Trump the moment it comes into session in January. But it won’t be a “skinny” impeachment, it will be a 10 article political MOAB. Everything Trump — and Pence have done over the last four years, from Stormy Daniels to general abuse of power will be thrown into the expansive articles of impeachment. Now, if the Senate hasn’t flipped, then lulz, this is all smoke and mirrors.

MoscowMich does exactly what he did with the first Trump impeachment. But, let’s suppose the Senate does flip. If the country is obviously beginning to fall apart at this point — which would be the only way Pelosi would actually have the guts to do any of this — then there might be a real shot that both Trump AND Pence would be convicted.

This is where things get tricky.

In an effort to placate some very angry Biden voters, Pelosi says she’s going to step aside and have the Democratic House name Biden as speaker of the House, thus putting him in line of succession. The argument that Pelosi could make is that desperate times call for desperate measures and one coup deserves another.

Remember, this would NOT happen in a vacuum. The entire country would likely be on the cusp of implosion at this point. And Trump could very well send in the D.C. national guard (or whatever) to Capitol Hill and try to disperse any impeachment proceedings. But let’s suppose that doesn’t work for some reason, maybe a massive human shield of voters or something.

So both Trump and Pence are convicted — in no large part because Senate Republicans realize the country is probably going to descend into civil war / revolution anyway — and Biden becomes POTUS in a very roundabout manner. He proceeds to name Harris as his veep, and the Senate approves her at a record speed.

If things have gotten THIS BAD, then obviously Trump — who is probably barely hanging on to his sanity — will hold up in the White House. But it’s reasonable to believe that rather than play Hitler-in-the-Berlin-Bunker, he steals Marine One and races to, say, the very CSA-friendly Mobile, Alabama.

And that’s how the country implodes.

‘Washington, Nous Sommes Ici!’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

If the absolute worst happens at some point between now and, say, April of next year and the United States simply collapses into warring Blue and Red States, it would not happen in a vacuum.

For about 70 years now, the United States has been the lynchpin of a stable liberal global order. If it effectively was no longer able to maintain that order, it’s likely everything would go tits up pretty quick across the globe. A series of regional wars would likely break out after the shock of America’s abrupt collapse wore off. All those wars would be marketed as “WW3.”

So, in a sense, you can’t talk about a civil war / revolution in the United States without talking about it from a global perspective. One upside to America being indisposed for a few years would be the rise of China would be hasented rather dramatically so at least we wouldn’t all die from WW3 breaking out between the US and China. In fact, by the time America sorted out if it was a Red State or a Blue State, the world might be so different that we simply wouldn’t be able to process at it at first.

Instead of having to wait 50 years for China to become a superpower, it might happen in five years. And, remember, what’s even more troublesome is there are no assurances that China and Russia won’t actually physically meddle in our domestic affairs during any implosion.

But, if it makes you feel any better, there is a chance that our NATO allies might also help us try to sort things out. So maybe some French soldier in the United States as part of the NATO Expeditionary Force might go to Washington’s crypt at Mount Vernon and say, “Washington, nous sommes ici!”

Or, put it another way, if the absolute worst happened, the implosion of the United States would be such a massive global clusterfuck that it’s ending would be equal to 1815 and 1945 when it came to historical milestones. At 70 years, we’re kind of early for something like this to happen. Usually, it’s closer to 100 years between geopolitical events that totally scramble the existing political order.

And, let me be clear about some things. One is, as I keep saying a succession of things will have to go wrong for Trump / Barr for the United States to implode. We’re hurtling towards a peaceful transition into a Russian-style autocratic managed democracy. Essentially, it’s already here. The only issue is, because of American self-perception, Trump needs to be a bit careful stealing the 2020 election so as to not crash into the American self-perception that we’re a “free” country.

Trump is so painfully stupid and ham handed that he could, in fact, very well single-handedly destroy the country.

But, again, a lot would have to go wrong for Trump to do that. Somehow, his fucking with the postal service, a fake announcement of a COVID19 vaccine and the “preliminary summary” of the Durham Investigation AND the fucking Russians hacking into our election systems would have to not get the job done by election night.

I just don’t see that happening.

Trump is going to “win” outright on election night and that’s it. A lot of liberals will get angry on Twitter but, lulz, so what.

The Coming Second American Civil War — Watch Me Dash The Dreams of ‘Neo-Confederates’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I can tell from my Webstats that growing numbers of Southerns hear the siren call of “the Lost Cause” and are stroking one out to all my ranting about a possible Second American Civil War. I’m Southern, so I’m well versed in the lingering nationalism found in Dixie. It’s so much a part of the world Southerners live in that we don’t even realize how deep the longing for the “South to rise again” really is.

Now excuse me while I shit on all that.

First of all, my dear fellow Southerners, if you really are a Neo-Confederate, you are conflating two different things. You’re mixing up what you’ve been able to get via politics with what you THINK you can get by running around murdering people. The dynamics of these two situations are very, very different. The moment a center-Right-but-not-MAGA family in the exurbs of, say, Nashville, wake up and realize they have to make an existential decision about their personal fate because fucking Neo-Confederates have forced the country to implode, the decisions they make next may surprise you.

And that’s just how you should simply be patient and at least give people a false sense of living in a free country by, maybe, just maybe, not being so fucking bloodthirsty about keeping Trump in power no matter what. You’re in a fucking personality death cult and you’re blinded by the massive self-own you’re setting yourself up for.

Now, let’s get to an even bigger problem of Neo-Confederates — your war aims. You want, in a sense, your romanticised antebellum dreams to come true. It’s not too much of a stretch to imagine MAGA-Qanon taking that to its logical conclusion and attempting to murder millions of African Americans across the South. Or, put another way — do you really think Southern blacks are going to sit back and lulz being put under the White jackboot so you can stroke one out to “Song of the South?”

The issue of race is so existential to any notion of using Dixie as the cornerstone of Trumplandia that you really, really need to slow your roll. You’re risking destroying the South AGAIN because of, what, cancel culture? Is that all you got?

And another thing — you may have a contiguous states and a lot of land, but you don’t really have the advantaged of concentrated population that Blue States have. You’re going to have to write off Red States in the Midwest and hunker down with deep Red States in the Deep South as your core. And even that will be unstable because of the race issue.

All I’m saying is — if the Neo-Confederates grow to extreme and greedy, it won’t be a civil war we’re talking about, it’s going to be a revolution in the sense that no institution — not even the Federal government — will escape the forces of creative destruction.

So, please, let’s play nice and let Biden get sworn into office peacefully if he wins. Ok? Thanks.

Comparative Collapse: Soviet Union 1991 Vs. United States 2021


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Let me be absolutely clear — the only reason why I keep writing about the possibility of some sort of “collapse” of the United States into civil war / revolution is we have a 50 / 50 chance it is going to happen between now and, say, January 2021.

Either Trump “wins” outright and we slip into a Russian style autocratic managed democracy peacefully, or there’s a significant implosion of the United States that takes months, if not years, to sort out. There is never going to be what we otherwise would assume would happen — a peaceful transfer of power. Those days are gone. We are now in the age of white-knuckled power politics.

If the United States does “collapse,” the closest approximation in modern times to this event would be the a similar collapse by the Soviet Union. But the similarities between these two events extremely superficial — it simply involves a major geopolitical power imploding. That’s it. Otherwise, the two situations appear to be completely different.

The collapse of the Soviet Union was a unique event because everyone pretty much just stop believing in its central tenet all at once after years of decline. The whole thing was peaceful because the major political force in the Soviet Union — Russia — essentially had something akin to a political revolution in the months leading up to the Soviet Union’s demise in the guise of Boris Yeltsin declaring that Russia’s laws held precedence over those of the Soviet Union.

And, remember, the Soviet Union was, in a sense, a 19th Century dream that outlived its welcome after existing for just about the length of one lifetime. Communism simply could not adapt to the vigor of American Capitalism. At its heart, Communism was a lie and little more than Russian imperialism under a different name.

So when Russia stopped believing in Communism, the whole thing became moot. The coup of August 1991 was, in hindsight, nothing more than a final deathrattle.

Now, let’s look at the United States in late 2020, early 2021.

Any collapse of the United States will happen because a lot — a LOT — of things go wrong for Donald Trump. He’s well on his way to consolidating power by stealing the election in a rather brazen fashion and that will be that. Americans are too content, too politically apathetic and too generally indifferent to the rise of tyranny in the country to do the things necessary to stop it in its tracks at this late date.

There are two ways Trump could screw this otherwise foregone conclusion up — one, be himself. He’s a self-own artist. He’s just an idiot. So, that’s one major known unknown. Connected to that is if things move to fast the average person not on Twitter might get woke in a rather abrupt fashion. So abrupt that we careen towards something closer to a revolution than a civil war.

So, in a sense, any collapse of the United States would be a political collapse. The two sides simply would have no middle ground and, as such, would try to solve their differences through “other means.” A lot of gnashing of teeth is being done about what California might do if there were, say, dualing presidents. The lazy answer is that California will leave the Union. I find that stupid because that’s just the type of the Trump would want so he could really consolidate power. There’s a chance, however, that not even Trump could pull that office because, well, he’s just a fucking idiot.

The liberal fever dream is, of course, that Blue States will simply leave the Union, establish a liberal utopia (maybe in conjunction with Canada) and we will, at last, have a taco truck on every corner and drive through free abortions. But I just don’t see that happening.

Yes, there will be a lot of talk about Blue States leaving the Union if things get bad enough, but it seems as though it would be more a matter of Blue States not recognizing Trump as president and coordinating a reponse to that rather than they leave the Union and do some sort of New Coke USA.

Or, put it another way – once the collapse is actually upon us, it won’t be a matter of everyone no longer believing in our shared ideals, but that those ideals are interpreted in radically different fashions by Blue and Red States. There will likely be a lot of debate about Blue States simply leaving the Union, but in the end, that choice may be made for them — they may realize they can get a lot more support from center-Right-but-not-MAGA people if they market their struggle as a fight for the soul of a shared nation, not the creation of a new one — a New American Covenant, if you will. You might go with “Renewed American Covenant” if you wanted to sound a tick less radical, but lulz, no one listens to me.

And, remember, the United States is a voluntary union of states, at least since April, 1865. The Soviet Union actively did everything in its power to prevent some of its more restless Republics — like those in the Baltics — from leaving. So, the United States starts with a vast reservoir of legitimacy that the Soviet Union didn’t have when it really began to collapse all of a sudden.

The Soviet Union was RUSSIA and 14 other Republics. The United States is California, Texas, Florida and 47 other States. The Federal — especially the U.S. Military — has the “mandate of heaven” for millions of people who simply want to raise their kids, pay their mortgage and go see a nice movie every once in a while.

As such, those people will be completely sucker punched if the bolts finally pop off the Republic and Blue and Red States actively begin to plot against each other on the battlefield.

I still don’t think this is going to happen. Something pretty big would have to happen for me not to simply try to tune out after Trump “wins” election night and we become, at last, the Fourth Reich.

Watch Me Play ‘Trotsky’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The only reason I find Trotsky noteworthy relative to me is we’re both screw ups who sometimes manage to succeed despite ourselves. With Trotsky it was founding and organizing the Red Army so it reached the Gates of Warsaw, with me, it was a doomed magazine for ex-pats in Seoul called ROKon Magazine.

Our future?

Anyway, I am good at abstract thought and strategy. So, just for fun, let’s go through what I would do if 99.9% of everyone who should be doing this kind of thing weren’t interested and it was up to me save the Union.

  1. New Model Army
    I would enact unisex conscription immediately. In a sense, many of the women conscripted would be doing National Service as opposed to actually fighting, but they would be a critical supply of additional forces if things came down to a real crisis.
  2. Destroying The Republican Party
    This would be a war aim for me. Any territory the New Model Army took over, the first thing we would do is seize and destroy any Republican Party property we had control over. The Republican Party is little more than the American Nazi Party at this point and needs to be treated as such.
  3. A Promise Of Reparations In Exchange For Rebellion
    I would tell African American leaders in the South that if their community actively — and successfully — revolted against the white power structure there, when all was said and done, the Second Republic would codify significant reparations for slavery.
  4. Reach Out To Our Traditional Allies
    This is kind of a duh when you think about it, but American pride might get in the way at first — we would have to ask the EU and NATO to come to our aid. We saved Europe from tyranny twice in one century, the least they could do is return the favor. I fully expect Trumplandia would have Russians on American soil before it was all over with.
  5. A New Covenant
    I would pitch saving the Union this way — MAGA-Qanon begged for a civil war (why, I still don’t know) — and we’re going to finish it. We’re going to base the Second Republic on the ideals of, say, California. In a sense, I would do everything in my power to placate California so it stayed in the Union. Any idea of “Cascadia” leaving the Union is a very dumb idea in my opinion.

    Let me be clear — I am well aware of how delusional and bonkers the above sounds given that I’m an absolute nobody in the rural part of flyover state. But, as I mentioned, I am good at abstract thought and, lulz, no one listens to me anyway.

Comparative Political History: Trump & The Rise of Hitler


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Any mention of Hitler is loaded. And, yet, why is that? The answer, of course, is how many people directly died because of him. But there was a time, in the early days of his rule, when he was seen as very much a Trumpian figure. It was only after the deaths began to mount that he attained his modern status as the human personification of evil.

While I’m sure there are a dozen historians quietly working on their Hitler-Trump dual biographies right now, the comparisons between Hitler and Trump are now growing alarmingly similar. But before we go any further, we have to remember that Trump, at least for the moment, is nothing more than criminally incompetent autocrat. It could be that for a variety of reasons, he’ll linger in the Germany 1933-1934 era and that will be that. Or put another way, he may simply hope to be something akin to Russia’s Putin, but not attain the more direct, vicious and malvalent control that Hitler got.

But the profound thing the rise of Trump potentially gives us is direct insight into the rise of Hitler. Now that we can safely make a direct comparison between Hitler and Trump (at least relative to Hitler’s rise to power and his early years), we’re close to understanding how, exactly, Hitler came to be. It definitely seems as though — if we take Trump a guide — that someone like Hitler was going to rise to power. Both men are extremely lazy and they don’t really do anything other than establish a “permission structure” for evil to grow and flourish. So, in a sense, we might get the age old question of was “a Hitler” inevitable, or was he just a particular quirk of history because of his special skillset.

Seems to me it’s the former. Hitler was inevitable because of macro historical trends, and, yet, he was something of a one-shot. He filled a historical and political need, but someone else wasn’t going to do exactly the same thing if something happened to him early enough in his rule. So, in a sense, had Hitler died at just the right moment, it’s possible that WW2 might not have happened. Germany would probably been something a lot more like Franco’s Spain given the available replacements to Hitler in the existing Nazi power structure.

And, really, the issue at this point is does Trump, after he steals the 2020 election, see it as his 1933 election and pass some sort of enabling acts as quickly as possible after his own Reichstag Fire. I’m thinking yes — probably in the form of a major domestic terrorism event. He’ll demand a Constitutional Convention and that will be that.

Yet, again, would Trump at that point go the Putin route, or would he lurch towards something a more Nazi? This is such a complicated question for a number of reasons. One is, why? He has made no secret of his obsession with and fidelity to Putin. That type of control — not Nazi ideological control — definitely seems is personal agenda for the United States as this point.

So, to that extent, one would be on safe ground to call me hysterical for claiming Trump is an American Hitler.

And, yet.

There are a few things that give one pause for thought. It’s possible that Trumplandia will, in itself, be a thing that historians compare other events to in the future. If Trump did go the Nazi route, the more direct political movement MAGA would go the direction of is the Khmer Rouge. Instead of trying to take over the world like Hitler and the Nazis, Trump and MAGA would implode the United States.

Everything exists — right now — for Trump to begin rounding up “liberals” and begin putting them in the already-existing ICE camp infrastructure. The American center-Left (read: everyone not MAGA) is so weak, so ineffectual, that Trump again the “total control” that Roger Stone suggests he make a grab for.

The reason I say this is how else was all of this going to end? The absolute fidelity of the MAGA-Qanon base and the complete complicity of the entire Republican Party as a result give Trump such power that he may — simply because he’s a moron — stumble into a Pol Pot type situation without even really meaning to. It’s not like Trump has any ideology at all other than how own personal aggrandizement and increase of wealth. It just so happens that the venn diagram of what he wants on a personal level and what his base wants is identical and, as such, he really doesn’t have to do anything but just be himself.

Do I really think Trump is going to ultimately be seen not as an American Hitler but as more an American Pol Pot? I honestly don’t know. He definitely has that option before him. I think he just wants to be an American Putin. And, yet, Putin doesn’t have Red Hats at his beck and call. Putin has a lot of power, yes, but he also has a lot of self-control. He uses the levers of state to do his bidding. While it’s extremely easy to see MAGA Red Hats turning into American Brown Shirts then American Khmer Rouge. What I mean by that is, it’s easy to imagine MAGA-Qanon Red Hats radicalizing once Trump consolidates power after stealing the 2020 election. Trump tells the authorities to stand down and he just sit back and watches the Red Hats do his bidding. It would give him plausible deniability. The whole thing might get out of his control, but he’s so devoid of empathy I doubt he would really care all that much.

At this point, let’s do a direct comparison of Trump and Hitler. First, both Hitler and Trump are very, very lazy. On a personal level, both men don’t drink. (Or at least say they don’t.) Hitler only got married late in life, while Trump has been married three times. Hitler had a very specific ideology, while Trump is completely devoid of an ideology. Hitler was very sane, while Trump’s mental acuity definitely seems to be wanining.

I could very much see a situation where Trump’s downfall ultimately comes from himself. He grows so extreme — or allows the MAGA-Qanon Red Hats to grow so extreme — that a lot of center-Right-but-not-MAGA people (the bedrock of America) freak out. They get radicalized enough to bring House Trump down. Of course, this would suck massively on a macro political history scale.

The majority of Americans, by nature, are extremely docile and politically apathetic. So, Trump could very well found House Trump and let the country drift, over the next 20 years or so, towards being — at least on a political level — an American interpretation of Putin’s Russia. This seems a very real possibility.

And, in the near term, the issue is how difficult is it for Trump to steal the 2020 election? The more difficult it is, the more likely what his family might attain gradually over 20 years, he — and Barr — will try to grab over about three months. This would be so shocking to the average American that instead of consolidating power peacefully, the United States would implode into civil war, revolution or something akin to both at the same time.

This sounds crazy, but, then major historical events when you live through them are nothing more than a shocking series of random events to the average person. It’s not until long after the fact that historians, in an attempt to explain what happened to successor generations given those events value and an a narrative so as to make them easier to explain and understand.

But I continue to believe because of the Durham Investigation, the false promise of a COVID19 vaccine and Trump’s likely quid pro quo with the Russians (he removes 1/3 of our troops from Germany, they hack directly into our election systems), that all of this is going to be a dud. We’ll know election night that Trump has “won.” We’ll continue to drift into a more Putin’s Russian and less Hitler’s Germany and that will be that.

I absolutely believe that.

I guess I’m just a little nervous that Trump is such a fucking self-own artist that even with that easy-“win” he will somehow manage to fuck us all over because the MAGA-Qanon Red Hats see his victory as a green light to establish a white ethno-state NOW and not gradually over the next generation.

That’s when it’s at least possible that the American Ancien Regime will be washed away and a New Order will be established. What that looks like is anyone’s guess. It could be a Second American Republic or it could be Gileade. Which one it is, we decide.

So What’s Going To Be Our Modern ‘Harpers Ferry?’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


On the occasion corresponding to this four years ago, all thoughts were anxiously directed to an impending civil-war. All dreaded it — all sought to avert it. While the inaugural address was being delivered from this place, devoted altogether to saving the Union without war, insurgent agents were in the city seeking to destroy it without war — seeking to dissole the Union, and divide effects, by negotiation. Both parties deprecated war; but one of them would make war rather than let the nation survive; and the other would accept war rather than let it perish. And the war came.Lincoln’s Second Inaugural Address.


I’m reading a lot about the Civil War now (for obvious reasons.) The thing that is clear to me is while it may seem as though a second civil war is inevitable now, it’s also very possible that it’s all going to be a big dud.

Trump, with Barr’s help, will consolidate power after he steals the 2020 election and we’ll just slip into autocracy with our eyes wide open. It’s possible that the center-Left in the United States is simply too weak, divided and concerned with identity politics to actually unite and do the hard work in the real fucking world to do something about Trump.

That’s a very real possibility.

And, yet. It’s also possible an actual civil war or even revolution may take place in the United States very, very soon. As such, it will probably open with a 9/11-level domestic terrorism event. John Brown’s raid on Harpers Ferry was the first real-world indication that the shit was about to hit the fan, that the country was, in fact, coming apart. Any modern equivalent of this would set off a cascading series of events which would buckle the United States into warring Blue and Red camps. Fox News would be raided by angry New Yorkers and MSNBC / CNN would be kicked off the cable in Red States. A multitude of people would feel unsafe because of their political views and there would be a massive migration that would consolidate the politics of Blue and Red States.

But what would be the actual event that caused all of that?

I’m thinking right now that if things go that bad, it would be a series of coordinated assassinations across the country on the part of MAGA-Qanon fucktards. They would think that by doing so they could “help” Trump consolidate power, but all it would do would enrage Blue State citizens off enough that they would begin to plot a significant reaction of their own. Another possibility is some crazy Qanon Representative might gun down a lot of Democrats in the House at some point when it became clear that we were in for dueling presidents.

All of this would be far more chaotic than my description might make you think. But I do think that we all need to have some sort of “bugout protocol” in place in case the long-feared Second American Civil War actually happens.

A Second American Covant: As Goes California, So Goes The Nation


Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


Everything is so dumb.

That I even have to say that all things considered it makes a lot more sense for California to stay and fight than try to leave the Union is so, so, very stupid. I say this because our historical amnesia hit the point where everyone has forgotten that about 700,000 Americans died the last time states tried to leave the Union?

Don’t answer that.

Anyway, let me at least make the case for California staying in the Union instead of attempting to leave when Trump inevitably rather abruptly and brazenly steals the 2020 election.

The key issue is what California is — a massive state with a massive economy and a largely homogeneous polity. In other words, the very things that Calexit people point to as a reason for it to “leave” the Union, I point to as a reason why it has to stay and fight.

I just don’t see the liberal fever dream of a Blue State Republic happening. More likely than not, California would have to take the lead on responding to some sort of tyrannical power grab by Trump and work together with other major Blue States to renew the Union’s covevant.

As I’ve said before, if you look at the realpolitik of the geography of the United States, the Blue State play book writes itself. You use California as your dreadnaught. You blitzkrieg across the Great Plains from California and meet up with your Blue State brethren in the Midwest.

Then you bribe African Americans in the South with the promise of reprations for slavery and, ta-da, you break the back of MAGA-Qanon and re-unite the country. You have go through a Radical Reconstruction phase that would address systemic racism and misogyny and you cruise into something of a second Gilded Age that bursts forth from the foundation of a Second American Covenant.

All of that is very dumb, in a sense, because I have no idea if that plan would work. But it is something to believe in rather than simply California leaving the Union and expected to get away with it without suffering a great deal.

And, really, wouldn’t California want to remake the United States in its image rather than go through extended “Troubles” that would likely involve IT going through something akin to a Reconstruction? There is strength in numbers, after all.

What If Trump Held An Autocracy And Nobody Came?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It seems as though what is going to happen in the next year is something like this — Trump is going to “win.” Liberals will run around screaming we’re now Nazi Germany.

And, to a certain extent, we will be.

But a key issue is, for the average person, nothing will change. So, while we will definitely be Germany 1933-1934 when it comes to our political system, things will remain the same enough that, lulz, nothing matters.

And there in lies the rub.

While Trump is extremely stupid and politically greedy, it is, at least possible that he will hold back. He won’t overreach and some specific pressure points — like late night TV and SNL — won’t be touched. While Trump through Barr will rapidly consolidate power otherwise, in real terms, the average center-Right person won’t really notice any difference in their every day life.

And, really, even if Roe V. Wade and the ACA are killed, even that probably won’t make much of a difference. That being the case, if nothing else, indicates that Trump and MAGA-Qanon would be EXTREMELY STUPID to go for “total power” as Roger Stone would suggest.

If your opposition is so completely ineffectual in the real world that you can get everything you want and more, why push things by going full Hilter or Pol Pot? Why not just continue to consolidate power and give liberals the political valve of comedy? Why not let them laugh it up — when it comes to things that are actually important to House Trump — power and cold, hard cash — what difference does a somewhat biting SNL cold open mean to them?

One thing about Trump is he’s such a moron and a massive self-own artist that he could very well do the one thing that might push us into an actual civil war or revolution — begin to fuck with the everyday freedoms that the average person who is not on Twitter takes for granted.

I can’t predict the future, I have no idea what is going to happen, but Trump is so, so very stupid that he might do that very thing because he feels cocky and really wants to put a hurting on Alec Baldwin.