Tag: Second American Civil War

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Way back when, there was thing dingus in Great Britain named Oswald Mosley who was Hitler’s “Man in London.” As I understand it, Mosley was a useful idiot who was laying in wait to be Hitler’s stooge in Britain should Operation Sealion have been successful.

Flashforward and growing numbers of elected Republicans are nothing more than useful idiots who will do whatever our Republican autocrat says whenever the time comes. Many, many Republicans — many of them Senators — are abjectly idiotic.

They got elected not only because they’re dumb, but they are willing to toe the MAGA New Right orthodox into the sun itself if need be. In other words, they’re willing to destroy the United States, burn it to the ground, turn it into Trumplandia in the name of their equally dumb god-king Trump.

But, really, this is just a setup for whenever an actual non-idiot MAGA autocrat becomes POTUS at some point. Of course, the other option is we have a fucking civil war and we bomb ourselves into the Stone Age. Yet, for the time being, I think it’s safe to say that we’re just going to slip peacefully into autocracy.

Something’s gotta give for me to think Blue States are going to put up any sort of fight when the time comes. In the end, America will be governed by a party full of Oswald Mosleys who step and fetch for the autocrat whenever he asks them to.

That’s the general trend at the moment, at least. There are macro trends at work in the United States that make me believe that this really is the twilight of America.

Around 2025, we’re going to be in a new era, one way or another.

By Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Man, oh, man, oh man. I’m getting nervous — and I mean really nervous — about What Happens Next for the United States. A number of different things are converging at the same time and will ultimately crash into each other around late 2024, early 2025.

Right now, two things are making me feel kind of jumpy.

The first is, the rush to control women’s bodies on the part of the entire Republican Party. When it becomes clear that abortion rights will be ended not just for poor women in Red States but wealthy liberal women in Blue states…that could knock the United States on the backfoot. If Blue States feel that the entirety of the Federal government wants them to “bend a knee” to MAGA…oh boy.

And then there is another element of America’s instability that is not as cut and dried on an economic basis — the rise of a MAGA New Right orthodoxy that is based exclusively on “owning” Blue States to the point that they’re blinded to the consequences of their actions.

In other words, Republicans for a variety of reasons keep catching the political car without — to date — any consequences. But there’s a chance that because of the passions of the 2024 presidential election that just might change.

Or not. It could be that we really are slouching towards autocracy and the whole thing will be a lulz. There will be a lot of talk about secession or civil war…but nothing will happen, nothing will come of it.

We’ll wake up 20 years from now and President DeSantis, or Hawley or Pompeo or whomever will be the only president that most Americans have ever known. They will be extremely powerful (probably because of a Constitutional Convention) and extremely wealthy because of graft. Form follows function, after all.

For the time being, I think it’s a safe bet that we’re just going to slip peacefully into autocracy. In the end, no later than 2042, we’re going to be politically identical to Russia.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Jesus Christ is Trump an idiot. And, what’s more, he is simply an avatar for white Christians who feel threatened by their coming minority status. If Trump was a “Great Man” we would already be something akin to a Nazi state.

I say this because the people who voted for Trump in 2016 wanted an autocrat. They wanted what I feared. Their dream was my nightmare. Trump had four years to destroy American democracy, but he was so lazy and stupid and spent so much of his time bemoaning the non-existent “deep state” that when the time came, he simply didn’t have it in him to seize control.

And, so, we are in something of a twilight era at the moment. We’re an anocracy. We’re not quite a democracy and not quite an autocracy. We’re in between. According to Barbara F. Walter’s book “How Civil War’s Start” it’s when a nation is an anocracy that they are most at risk of having a…gulp…civil war.

Let me be clear — I can’t predict the future. It’s very possible that something will happen and Trump won’t be the 2024 Republican nominee. If that’s the case, then, lulz, we slip peacefully into autocracy and that’s that. But it definitely seems as though Trump is going to be the nominee in 2024. And if that happens, then, by definition, the risk of a massive political clusterfuck in the United States grow exponentially.

Trump is notorious for saying the “quiet part out loud” and if he runs and wins in 2024, I could totally see him ranting at length about all kinds of crazy shit that would enrage Blue States to the point that they begin to leave the Union. He could get into his orange ding-dong noggin the idea that there ABSOLTUELY HAS to be a Constitutional Convention in his second term to “pass a balanced budget amendment.”

I don’t know what to tell you. To think, the entire fate of 330 million Americans rests on total fucking idiot like Donald Trump. It’s all very sad. In general, however, I would suggest that things are going to get lit the moment SCOTUS actually does, in fact, overturn Roe.

Buckle up.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m growing very frustrated with all the keyboard warriors who seem to think that getting really angry on Twitter is going to change anything. I definitely don’t want any violence, but something’s gotta give.

If we continue to waste our time on Twitter instead of preparing in the real world for our coming choice of autocracy or civil war, then, lulz, our choice has already been made for us — it’s autocracy. What’s even worse is at our time of greatest need, the people who would otherwise serve as the core of any real-world resistance to our coming MAGA themed fascist autocracy — Blue Check Liberals — are all going to decamp to the south of France.

I have very low expectations for the United States politically going forward. There may be some chaos here and there going forward, but as of this moment, it definitely seems as though we’re just going to slip peacefully into autocracy. And if it’s Ron DeSantis not Trump who is the GQP nominee in 2024, it’s extremely unlikely we’ll have a civil war.

DeSantis (or whomever, as long as it isn’t Trump) is so smooth in a traditional political sense that at first nothing will change until we wake up 20 years from now and they’re still in office. We’re extremely close to having a MAGA-themed Constitutional Convention. Maybe three or four resolutions, I think? In fact, I would go so far as to say the big political debate of Trump’s second term, should there be one, will be the fact that the Constitutional Convention has gone rouge and now we’re going to be a full fascist state.

Anyway, lulz, nothing matters.

At the moment, it seems as though we just don’t have the gumption to address, in the real world, the rise of autocratic fascism in the United States. The center-Left is too divided, weak willed and misguided for there to be much fight when the time comes.

I don’t want violence and I don’t want a civil war. But a nation divided upon itself cannot stand. We’re going to go one way or another. Something huge is going to happen between now and 2025. It could be that we have something akin to a civil war, it could be that it becomes conventional wisdom that it is, on a Constitutional level, nearly impossible for a Democrat to become POTUS.

And once that happens, it’s over. All the extremely unpopular policy goals that Republicans have will gradually — or not so gradually — become law and by 2042, we’ll be no different politically than modern day Russia.

A lot can happen between now and January 2025. But I’m going to be flabbergasted if we just don’t slouch towards autocracy.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

No matter what happens in the next few years, we are currently living through the “Before Times.” Something really big is going to happen not just in the United States but across the globe.

I say that because no matter what America decides to do, be it civil war or autocracy, there’s a good chance that the existing world order will be destroyed and something akin to WW3 might happen.

Anyway, good luck.

You’re going to need it.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There are two flashpoints that I could see sparking any possible Second American Civil War — California and New York City. Let’s go through two scenarios.

California
When it becomes clear that we’ve slipped into autocracy after the theft of the 2024 election the Bear State Republic holds a snap Secessionist Convention. Given that this would be illegal and there’s no real way for this to happen, this would, by definition, start a civil war of some sort. Probably there would be a “Phony War” at first while the MAGA Federal government tried to figure out what to do about the situation. If Trump is president under this scenario, then, lulz, he’ll probably use nukes because he’s stupid and deranged.

New York City
With this scenario, the same type of thing happens, but instead of California leading the way, the population of New York City collectively freaks the fuck out and they storm the offices of places like The Wall Street Journal, The New York Post and FOX News. They also take Trump Tower in some way. This, in turn, would cause the deranged Trump to strike back in some severe manner which would cause Blue States to begin to leave the Union one right after the other.

A house divided against itself cannot stand. I believe this government cannot endure, permanently half slave and half free. I do not expect the Union to be dissolved – I do not expect the house to fall – but I do expect it will cease to be divided. It will become all one thing, or all the other. — Abraham Lincoln

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The above quote from Lincoln sums up my current view on the fate of the United States between now and January 2025. The difference between the two sides has grown so extreme that we’re either going to entirely MAGA or we have a civil war that leads to the destruction of one of the two sides and we’re unified that way.

Though, I have to note that it’s very unlikely that in this modern world that any Second American Civil War would have an ending as pat as the first. What’s more likely to happen if there is a 2ACW is a permanent division of the United States into, say, the United States of Canada and Trumplandia.

I say this because of what the war aims of the Blue States would be — simply to leave the Union and not have to worry about living under the MAGA jackboot. It would be MAGA that would want to control the entire territory of the United States. So, in a sense, the dynamic of the First American Civil War would be switched with the center-Left simply wanting to leave the Union while the center-Right wanting to keep the Union together.

But a lot would depend what type of leadership bubbled up to the surface as we progressed towards making our final decision of autocracy or civil war. I still think that the “radical moderates” of the #NeverTrumper movement will be the leadership of Blue States. I mean, Goddamn, is Liz Cheney the type of Margaret Thatcher type leader that Blue States would need should the shit hit the fan.

The Red States, meanwhile, have a shit ton of leaders to draw upon. I can think of a dozen really strong MAGA Republicans who could populate the leadership of the rump USA should there be a secession crisis that leads to a civil war. But one thing is clear — if you think there can be a peaceful National Divorce, you’re a fool or full of shit.

Any “national divorce” would, by definition, be extremely violent and involve weapons of mass destruction.

Anyway, the point is — things are very unstable in the United States right now. Things could go either way. We could simply shrug and become a Russian-style autocracy, or we could have a violent “national divorce” that will directly and indirectly lead to the death of millions.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

For want of a better term, I think I’m going to call whatever it is that is going to happen around 2023 – 2025 “the Big Ugly.” We’re in for a bumpy ride and we need a name for the time when we’re figuring out if we want to blow ourselves up or if we want to turn into an autocracy.

Anyway, I’ve long suggested that the fate of Blue States will hang with what I call “Radical Moderates.” These are people who, because of the necessity of history rise to the occasion, regardless of what their actual political views are in more normal times.

As such, I’ve come to believe that what is a rather marginal group at the moment — the #NeverTrumpers — will, once the Big Ugly is in full force, become crucial to the fate of the United States. Take, for instance, Liz Cheney. She’s just the type of person to become a leader within the Blue State national government should things come to that.

I’m still not 100% sure such a thing is going to happen — we could just gradually (and peacefully) become a Russian style autocracy. But we take the more tragic option of secession then a Second American Civil War, the #NeverTrumpers and specifically Liz Cheney could do some pretty historic things.

Like, Abraham Lincoln level type things.

But that’s just a possibility.

And, yet, I could see Liz Cheney (and other #NeverTrumpers) filling the leadership void that the center-Left in the United States currently suffers. Outside of a few people like AOC, the cupboard is bare when it comes to the type of tough as nails leadership that any Blue State Republic would need should we have any type of hot civil war.

But, for the moment, all of that is kind of crazy talk. All the keyboard warriors of Twitter at the moment would have to start to risk things important to them in the real world for anything like that to happen.

What’s more likely to happen is, all the Blue Check Liberals will be cowards and flee the country in droves. So, instead of staying organize any form of real-world resistance within Blue States to the fascist MAGA federal government, they’ll spend all their time drinking wine in the south of France where they’ll be the White Russians of the 21st Cenutry.

In other words, unless something changes, we’re fucked.