Tag: Second American Civil War

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It just occurred me today why there might be a Second American Civil War starting sometime around Election Day 2024 and Certification Day 2025: the same reason why the First Civil War happened.

The First Civil War happened because Slave Power got so wrapped up its own paranoia that they felt that their age-old “right” to own other people would be put in jeopardy no matter what once the Republican Abraham Lincoln became POTUS.

Ok, flash forward to 2024 – 2025 and what is going on — Blue States have every right to believe that the newly re-elected Trump will actively abridge various hard-earned rights no matter what they do. Add to this how brazen Trump was in stealing the 2024 election via Bannon’s corruption of the administration of elections and you have a recipe for a Second American Civil War.

And, despite Barbara F. Walter’s insistence that it will be Reds who start a “Troubles” like civil war, it will be a Civil War based on states. If a Second American Civil War does happen, it’s likely to begin with California leaving the Union, which will spark a cascading series of events that will cause sister Blue States to leave the Union as well.

Or at least try to.

This is where things get murky in my future history — what happens with the U.S. Military?

The officer corp of the U.S. Military will be extremely empathetic to the alarm of the Blue States, but as an institution, the U.S. Military will never brook Blue States breaking the law and leaving the Union.

So, I don’t know.

Either there’s some sort of last-ditch military coup in hopes of keeping the country together long enough for a Constitutional Convention (Hello, acting President James Mattis) or we see something even more fucked up — even the U.S. Military buckles. This would involve, just like with the original Civil War, people who supported the Blue States joining the military of the Blue American Republic.

Now, there’s something to keep in the back of your mind about all of this — with the United States pre-occupied with a Second American Civil War, there would likely be a WW3.

A series of regional wars would flare up for no other reason than the United States simply couldn’t do anything about them. So, you would see the DPRK attack South Korea. India and Pakistan blow each other up. Israel and Iran blow each other up. And God only knows what Russia might think up.

And if things got as bad as I fear, you would have NATO nations supporting Blue States in an active way, just like the West is now supporting Ukraine.

A Second American Civil War would not be an overnight affair, either. It would likely last for the rest of the decade. And, what’s more, there would be no assurances that there would even be a nice and tidy endgame to any of it.

The United States could simply balkanize into a post-civil war hellscape, with Trumplandia’s radicalized government murdering POC in numbers not seen since WW2.

But, as I keep saying, I may be overthinking all of this.

We could, in fact, simply slip peacefully into a MAGA-themed autocracy.

You have a few years. Get a passport.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m not an expert, so you can actively ignore me on this one, but here are my personal thoughts on what might happen should Blue States bounce out of the Union around 2024 -2025.

The theory is, at this point, that because Republicans will be a little too aggressive in their theft of the 2024 election, Blue States, starting with California, will simply leave the Union.

But here’s the rub — this would not happen in the context of antebellum 19th century America, but, rather in 21st century America that has been a nation-state since 1865.

As such, I wonder if there’s a glaring flaw in my basic assumptions about how a Second American Civil War might play out. And that flaw is the U.S. Military. Is it possible that should we actually get to the point where Blue States are leaving the Union that the U. S. Military will step in and single-handedly hold the country together?

Given that the reason why the civil war would start would be the question of Who Is The President? it’s possible that someone like James Mattis might come in as part of a military coup. He would be president just long enough for a Constitutional Convention that would fix the structural problems the country faces at the moment.

And YET, there’s another way of looking at that — such a desperate move could simply be modern day equivalent of a last-gasp change to avoid violence like the Crittenden Resolution that happened at the beginning of the Civil War. It could be that, in the end, not even the US Military can keep the country together.

Give the MAGA New Right a few more years to marinate in their hate who knows what might happen.

The passions of the 1860 election caused a civil war, it seems that what might seem unthinkable now in 2022 could very well happen in 2024 for the same reason: civil war.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Should what we’re led to believe happen and SCOTUS overturns Roe, we will lurch towards a Second American Civil War around 2024 – 2025. All the conditions are there.

There are two major questions at this point.

One is, what will the military do should it seem the country is going to break in two and the other is, do we just slip peacefully into autocracy?

For the moment, the US Military is a real wild card whenever I try to game out a Second American Civil War. It could be that instead of what I fear — a civil war — we get a weird, hazy gray era in American politics were Acting President James Mattis holds the country together while we figure out how to hold a judicious Constitutional Convention.

Or, put another way, it’s highly unlikely that the US Military would one, sit back and watch the country collapse or two, fall apart like what happened at the beginning of the first American Civil War.

So, that, unto itself, is something of a conundrum.

And, regardless of what the US Military ultimately does, it’s possible we’ll just slip peacefully into an autocracy and that will be that. But all I do know is the moment abortion is illegal in huge swaths of America — we’re going to grow far more politically unstable than we already are.

Buckle up.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

If you want to get some sense of how fucking cooked the Union is at the moment, look no further than how the Right and the Left are getting angry over the recent leaked preliminary SCOTUS overturning Roe.

The Left is understandably angry about the the fact that Roe is being overturned. While the Right is….

…the fact that this opinion was leaked?

That’s what they’re going with?

Apparently, yes.

So, this is an example of how the two are talking past each other. MAGA is totally wrapped up in all of this being leaked, while the Left is rightfully apoplectic about the case.

The point, of course, is that MAGA talking heads don’t want to talk about directly something that makes them squirm — their hatred of abortion rights is extremely unpopular.

And, in the end, we continue to slouch towards either a civil war or a MAGA autocracy.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

History may not repeat but it does rhyme. Overturning Roe might, in hindsight, be seen as a modern day Dred Scott decision. And it definitely seems as though the United States is careening towards the biggest political crisis since 1860 – 1861. The passions of the 2024 election could very well tear the United States apart in a way not seen since the Civil War.

I have repeatedly said that around 2024 – 2025 we will face a choice. Either we turn into a MAGA autocracy or we have a Second American Civil War. Or, put another way, starting now, the United States is going to grow even more politically unstable than it has been since Trump became POTUS.

There are a lot ways that there could be a civil war.

Everything from Republicans being angry that Democrats keep Congress in 2022 to Democrats being angry that the administration of elections has grown so corrupted in 2024 that they no longer feel they can win, period.

Part of all of this is how the overturning of Roe might be the equivalent of the Dred Scott decision. When women get angry, things tend to change in a big way. It happened during the French Revolution, it might happen now.

But I just have no idea which way things will go. It could be we simply slip peacefully into autocracy, it could be that we have a civil war.

At the moment, it could go either way.

Overturning Roe, however, definitely seems to make the idea of a Second American Civil War seem far more likely.

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The late Annie Shapiro called me — at the height of our emotional warfare over ROKon Magazine in Seoul — a “delusional jerk with a good heart.” And, honestly, if that’s the worst she could say about me, I’ll go with it.

I was kind of a drunk asshole at that point in time.

Anyway, I reminded of this quip about me on her part when the person behind the Mueller, She Wrote Twitter account explained why she blocked me. Two things stuck out.

One, she said I mischaracterized her “work” on Twitter.
Two, she said I was “terribly negative.”

Let’s address One first. She doesn’t come out and say that someone is going to save us, but she definitely does engage in a lot of breathless Twitter threads about this or that bad thing Trump and his coterie of ne’er-do-wells will bring them all down.

And this is isn’t going to happen.

So, yes, the Mueller, She Wrote account doesn’t SAY someone is “going to save us” but it is named after Mueller, who liberals in 2017 thought — you guessed it — would save us.

Now, as for me being “terribly negative,” I can take that. She and I have a very different take on the future of the American political system. She writes breathlessly — to great effect within Twitter liberal circles — about how we’re just ever so close to seeing the entire Trumplandia edifice that will be about to collapse.

And I think that’s bullshit.

We have to accept that around 2024 – 2025 we’re either going to have a civil war or turn into an autocracy. In other words, we’re fucked. She thinks we aren’t and I think we are.

If that causes me to be blocked by one of the better known “Resistance” Twitter liberal accounts, so be it. One person’s “terribly negative” is another person’s “being realistic.”

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I know what you’re saying, “Oh, this is just more of idiots ‘hysterical doom shit’ that got him blocked on Twitter by Mueller, She Wrote.” And, I guess, that’s an accurate description in some way.

But some of it is just stating the obvious — there are some deep seated problems in American politics that aren’t going anywhere. And I’m of the opinion that we’re careening towards a situation in 2024 – 2025 of having to pick between autocracy and civil war.

Here are the problems we face.

1. We Live In An Age Of No Nuance
   A lot of the problems the United States faces require nuance that we just don’t have as a nation. All we do is resort to “both sides” whenever it’s possible that our side show not to be perfect. This allows us to avoid any accountability and we march ever closer to existential choice of autocracy or civil war.
   
2. We’ve Passed The Tyrannical Event Horizon
   There’s nothing we can do at this point. Macro trends are such that we’re careening towards autocracy or civil war around 2024 -2025. That’s it. No other choices. I know that it sounds like “hysterical doom shit” but that’s where all the metrics are pointing.
   
3. We’ve Given Up
   If we still cared about having some shared goals and dreams as a nation, then we would be far more likely to do the things necessary to keep the country together the way it was in the past. But, alas, it’s over. We just don’t have the energy to defeat the rise of autocracy in the United States. And if we do, it will be through something I hate — violence on the battlefield.
   
   Anyway, good luck everyone. Don’t know what to say but we had a good run.