Tag: Second American Civil War

My Hot Take On The January 6th Insurrection ‘Multiverse’



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The key issue about January 6th is we know what the conspiracy was and we know what the plan was. And yet, because of macro trends outside of our control, in the end, nothing will change.

Apparently, the plan was for the mob to drive Pence out of the Capitol and then Republican Senate President Pro Temp Grassley would handle things from that point on. The hope was that there would be sufficient clashes between the Right and the Left that the narrative would be that for Trump to declare martial law.

The rest would take care of itself.

There would likely be significant violence, but, in the end, the entire system to devoted telling the masses to calm down. As such, the only reason why the plan didn’t succede was the plotters were too lazy and stupid not to force the issue about Pence.

When Pence would not leave the Capitol, Biden becoming president was inevitable.

This does raise the question of if there had been significant political violence around January 6 beyond what actually existed, would there have been a civil war? The conditions were definitely there.

But even if Pence had played along and martial law was declared, we, as a nation, just weren’t ready for a civil war.

Come 2024 – 2025, however, I think that will be a lot different. We’re going to be primed and ready for a civil war — based on the state level — and we really will face the existential choice of autocracy or civil war.

Struggling With The Rise of ‘Wokeness’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

From my personal experience, the idea of “wokeness” has become a catch all enemy for MAGA. It’s tribal and abstract. Everything they don’t like, they ascribe to “the woke cancel culture mob.” It doesn’t matter if there is any connection to reality or not.

And it’s not like this is going to abate once they get want they want. The MAGA New Right won’t be happy until the center-Left is totally crushed and a white Christian ethno state is established. So, we’re going to drift and drift towards autocracy until there’s no more slack in the system.

A lot could happen between now and then, of course. It’s possible that as the MAGA New Right grows closer to its goal, the country will grow more and more unstable. As such — because we’ve bumped up against the self-perception of Americans of America being a “free country” — we’ll have a civil war. The only difference with this scenario is the civil war will happen later than the general 2024 – 2025 timeframe that I’ve come to believe.

But the point is — we’re careening towards a very, very dark future.

And, yet, I still struggle with why. Why is all of this happening? I think some of it has to do with the gap between Youngs and Olds when it comes to what is acceptable in the public sphere has grow so enormous that Olds are using their power to fight back. Or, put another way, they feel powerless, and so they’re turning to fascism.

But make no mistake about it — the United States is in a pre-fascist state. The only question is, do we have a civil war as we transition into an autocracy or do we slip peacefully into autocracy. Right now, I just don’t know which one we’re going to do.

What Exactly Is The MAGA New Right’s Endgame?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It’s with growing alarm that I see the MAGA New Right grow not only more and more radical, but more and more detached from reality. But, here we are — the conservative Traditionalists in my family grow more and more radical every time I see them.

It makes you wonder — what’s the endgame of all of this.

The only unknown at the moment is if we have a civil war or if we slip peacefully into autocracy. I think it’s the latter. And then the issue is how bad, exactly, is the autocracy going to get? At the moment, I think it’s probably going to settle somewhere around modern day Russia. But there is a chance that because of race we go full blown Nazi Germany. So, somewhere between Putin’s Russia and Hitler’s Germany is where America will find itself once the autocratic dust settles.

But one thing is for sure — the America that we all have known our entire lives is in its twilight. Either we have a civil war with WMD and maybe, just maybe, renew the American Covenant, or we become an autocracy and millions upon millions of people die in the camps.

Regardless, the MAGA New Right will get its way one way or another. Either they get their civil war and radicalize that way or they don’t bungle the tradition into autocracy. The very thing that has, to date, stopped our tradition into an autocracy the so called “Deep State” will be the first to go and then there will be no breaks to slow our decent into tyranny.

And all of this is happening in broad daylight and we’re doing nothing to stop it. That’s the sad thing about it all. But we’re dealing with historical macro trends. We’re passed the even horizon for a “Fourth Turning” or “Great Reset” sometime around 2024 -2025.

We are, in short, doomed. There’s no going back. All we can do is figure out what we believe in and what we’re willing to suffer for in the real world. That, at least, is all I got at the moment as to a “solution.”

Of Crooked Media & When To Worry About Autocracy In The United States



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One of the big changes we’re going to have to get used to once the United States is a Russian-style autocracy is how many notable liberals will no longer live in the United States.

It could be that huge swaths of Hollywood will no longer live in the now-autocratic America to the point that even The Oscars will be held outside of the United States. I know this sounds bonkers — “hysterical doom shit” — if you will, but that is the direction the United States is heading an alarming clip.

I would suggest you keep an eye on Crooked Media. If Crooked Media leaves the United States and starts to produce all its content elsewhere, then, lulz, us Poors who are stuck in the United States are fucked.

And, remember, there will come a point when the only way to learn what’s really going on is to access, say, the British media using a VPN. I just don’t see how that’s not our destiny at this point.

That, or we have a civil war.

The United States is doomed for a bumpy few years and there’s not anything that any one person can do about it. There are macro issues at work and, lulz, nothing matters.

What We Have Here Is, A Dead Shark


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We have to stop thinking of the United States as a democracy. At best, we’re an anocracy and probably now something closer to a pre-fascist state. Occasionally, I will toy with the idea that maybe we’re going down the high risk, I rereward path of civil war…then I dismiss this idea out of hand.

Blue Check liberals are fucking cowards and when the time comes in late 2024 – early 2025, they’re going to head for the doors. The bent-up rage of the MAGA New Right is so potent — and anti-MAGA forces so weak-willed — that, lulz, the fight will be over before it begins.

And you have to look no further than what’s going on with abortion rights at the moment. That particular debate is over — and the “pro-Life” forces have won. The only thing that’s undecided at the moment is if there is a simple overturn of Roe V. Wade, or if SCOTUS completely flips things so it’s impossible to get a legal abortion in the United States.

That particular datapoint has yet to be determined.

While the center-Left is fighting amongst itself over who is the most woke, or which pronouns to use, or how extreme they can be about transgender rights, the MAGA New Right is slowly but surely collecting real power that it’s using as a bludgeon against what’s left of our democracy.

We’re already a white, autocratic Christian ethnostate, but for one thing — Republicans don’t control the White House or Capitol Hill. Once they changes, which it surely will eventually, that’s it. We’ll go from being an autocracy without an autocrat to just an autocracy.

And I still think by no later than 2040 the United States and Russia will be politically identical. And loudmouth cranks like me will be long dead at the hands of ICE.

So, if you have the means to get out of the country, do so. God speed.

What The War In Ukraine Can Tell Us About A Possible Future Second American Civil War


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I still believe we’re going to slip peacefully into autocracy. Gradually at first with accelerating speed. But it hasn’t happened yet, so I suppose it’s possible that we might have a civil war.

The chief thing we have to factor in is how mobile everyone will be during the whole process. It’s very possible that Canada will be overwhelmed with American refugees. And that doesn’t even begin to address the few million wealthy Twitter liberals who will flee the country because they’re fucking cowards.

But there are differences from what’s going on in Ukraine — the primary one being it seems to me obvious that WMD will be used by both sides from early on in the conflict. So, we won’t have any idea what the fuck is going on.

The whole thing will be a clusterfuck. And it’s possible once the country collapses there won’t be any clear endgame. We’ll just collapse and that will be that. Some form of Trumplandia will be formed and millions of center-Left people will flee its creation, which will even jiggle the demographics of what was once the United States even more.

Any Second American Civil War is going to be a quantum leap worse than what’s going on in Ukraine at the moment.

The MAGA New Right Is Ascendant


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I keep saying, enjoy these last few months of living in a Western democracy. Things are going to change rather abruptly in January 2023 when Republicans take control of Congress. All they’re going to do is go on fishing expeditions looking for some reason, any reason to impeach both Biden and Harris.

And it is well with the realm of possibility that we may face a Speaker Trump at that point, too. If that happens, then the United States is going to grow far, far more unstable.

The thing that so many Twitter liberals are oblivious to is how ascendant MAGA is. The MAGA movement is so ascendant that there is a reasonable reason to believe that Trump (or whomever is the Republican nominee) will win outright and there won’t be any need for them to cheat — even though obviously they will just because that’s who they are.

A key element to all of this is the rage of conservative white men over what they feel are “radical” social changes over the last decade or so. Or, put another way, something about Obama’s second term fried their minds. They’re now just rage machines who will stop at nothing to establish an autocracy. They are very clear that they no longer believe in democracy and fuck you lib.

You see this everywhere these days. White Christian men in the United States feel very alienated and disenfranchise and, as such, they look forward to autocracy. They are so blinded by their orthodoxy, in fact, that they don’t really think through the implications of what happens once they get what they want. I say this because I know that I, specifically, will likely be in the crosshairs of a newly weaponized ICE whenever that should become a reality.

My divided family won’t be alone — families all over the nation where some members are MAGA and some aren’t are going to have to confront a internal division so severe that the civil war was the last time anything like it has been experience.

A lot of people think all of this is “hysterical doom shit,” but I struggle to see any other endgame. And, barring a civil war, our transition into a Russian-style autocracy may take long enough that a lot — and I mean a lot — of people will laugh at me in the meantime.

But at the end of the process I’ll be proven correct.

If The ‘All-In’ Podcast Represents Silicon Valley, We’re Doomed


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m of the opinion that you need to expose yourself to ideas you don’t agree with so you build up the mental antibodies necessary to be self-confident in what you believe in. And, yet, here I am being irritated by some of the comments I’ve heard on the “All-In” podcast.

I have nothing against any of the guys on the show and it is interesting and informative. It’s just the more I think about it, the more angry I get at how a number of the participants have thrown their lot in with MAGA. They should know better, and, yet, they apparently want Trump back because they believe in the fascist “leadership principle.”

It’s amazing to me to hear intelligent, well educated people advocate for an orange ding-dong like Trump. What the what? I guess money can’t buy you taste. But it doesn’t stop there.

They also believe the MAGA New Right has the right to spread disinformation on everything from COVID19 to Trump numerous and well documented crimes. Again, I just don’t get it. And they’re so self-assured and smug about supporting fascism.

They cherry pick the data points of the Trump Era that fit their needs, totally ignoring what a massive clusterfuck it was otherwise. It’s staggering how it’s possible any self-aware person could willfully buy into such bullshit.

There is no excuse for supporting MAGA for any reason. But I guess if you want an autocratic fascist state where you, as a billionaire, get to play the role of American oligarch, then the idea that tyranny will have descended across the land of the free is a lulz.

It’s Like We’ve All Given Up


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I don’t know how much of this is the final Big Shrug before we either have a civil war or turn into an autocracy and how much of it is we’ve passed the event horizon for the Fourth Turning — but America feels pretty fucked right now.

Every day, Republicans prove that they have, on a systemic, existential basis become radicalized to the point of being old school fascists. They no longer believe in traditional American democracy and, as such, they will abuse any power they regain to ensure that they never give it up.

There are two upcoming events that will definitely give us some insight into our ultimate fate.

  1. The End of Roe V. Wade
    In the next few months, the Roe decision is either going to be gutted so as to be moot or overturned altogether. If this gets a lot of women woke and there are massive protests across the country, that will be sign to me that we’re more likely to have a civil war than slip peacefully into autocracy. But there is a lot of grumbling, but ultimately nothing of note happens — autocracy it is.
  2. January 2023
    Another datapoint that will give us a very good sign as to our fate is how much Republicans abuse the power afforded them by controlling Congress again. If they go nuts and we have Speaker Trump who leads multiple impeachments of both Biden and Harris — we’re probably going to have a civil war. Or, more specifically, if they’re hijinks are so extreme that this leads to a radicalization of the center-Left…we’re going to have a civil war. If the center-Left continues to sleepwalk through history despite Republicans going nuts, then we’re just going to slip peacefully into autocracy.

But the fact remains that American politics grows more and more extreme by the day and there will come a point when either we get a Republican autocrat in power who becomes an American Putin or…we have a civil war. Some pretty big things would have to happen for us to have a civil war in 2024 – 2025 at the moment.

We’re just not there yet.

I still think that most Twitter liberals are just going to leave the country. The seething rage of MAGA will become the bedrock of autocratic rule and things will go from bad to worse at an alarming rate.

And while I know my far more conservative relatives think it’s laughable to think that they’re going to have to face a person decision about my fate when we become an autocracy, I still believe this is the case.

I simply will never shut up — I don’t even know if I could if I wanted to — and, as such, they’re either going to have to turn me in or suffer the consequences of being associated with me.

I have no idea how that’s going to play out.

The ‘All-In’ Podcast Is Really Giving 1930s German Industrialists A Run For Their Money



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m hardcore dreamer and, as such, I like to keep tabs on what’s going on in Silicon Valley. I occasionally find myself listening to the “All-In” podcast. It’s usually interesting and informative and generally fun to get some sense of what tech bros “smartest guys in the room” are thinking about these days.

And then, sometimes, out of the blue, it gets really dark.

Several of the regulars on the podcast simply can not, will not shut up about how much they love Trump. What they’re really saying is they don’t believe in something as pedestrian as democracy and they want a nation run by the fascist concept of the “leadership principle.” They even occasionally come out and say it when they blurt out that they wish, “Elon Musk could be named king of America” or some such.

It’s all very frustrating because they cherry pick the elements of the Trumplandia era that fit their pre-conceived narrative. They praise Trump for “keeping us out of war” because he was a “populist” while totally ignoring the complete supernova of bullshit and anarchy that otherwise was his administration.

This seems very reminiscent of why German industrialists loved Hitler so much before, well, you know. He “made Germany great again” by managing inflation and you know the rest.

And, in all honesty, people who support Trump like those on All-In are, by far, the absolute worst form of MAGA. They should know better! And, yet, here we are. Because of a combination of greed and misguided contrarianism they support Trump and the rise of autocracy in the United States.

It’s stuff like this that again makes me think we’ve passed the event horizon for tyranny in the United States. When people who should know better willfully embrace autocracy, then, well, lulz, nothing matters. I suppose when autocracy comes to the United States they will find themselves in a situation similar to Russian oligarchs. They will travel freely around the world, and their lives won’t be any different — in fact, they will be better because they’ll pay even less taxes than they do today.

Of course, there is always the risk that there will be a civil war and these American oligarchs will be on the wrong side of history should the Blue States win. Now THAT would be interesting.

But I still don’t think we’re having a civil war. We’re just going to peacefully slip into autocracy, the All-In podcast participants cheering all the way.