All Things Being Equal, We Should Suspend The 2020 Presidential Campaign #Primaries #COVID19 #CoronaVirus

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It definitely seems as though we may look back on 2020 as a worst case scenario when it comes to COVID19. Not only is Campaign 2020 now in full swing, but we’re supposed to have a Census this year. Lulz! But if we’re going to be honest with ourselves, we need to suspend all presidential campaign activities until we learn how bad things are going to get.

Or, at least, we figure out some work arounds.

It’s growing more and more self-evident that it’s just not safe for there to be primaries or campaign rallies. All those people in the same place at the same time will only spread COVID19 even more. And, really, the whole issue may be moot if the contagion grows so large in the American population that everyone is too sick — or too scared of getting sick — to participate in the campaign to begin with.

Right now, COVID19 is still an abstract. Once everyone in the States knows at least one person in their extended social circle who has gotten sick or died from COVID19, it might be a lot easier to implement some of the more drastic preventive measures that have been seen in China and elsewhere. But I’m just speculating. It could go either way, I guess.

I do think, however, that leadership is going to spring up at some point. Someone, somewhere, is going to take a risk and tell the truth to the public so they can stabilize this growing clusterfuck. But I do think we need to rethink, at the very least, some pretty basic elements of modern American society, starting with the on-going presidential campaign. If we don’t a lot more people than necessary may get sick and or die.

It is will be interesting to see exactly the sequence of events going forward. I think what will happen is people will start to get sick on TV and that will be the thing that prompts some rather radical rethinking of what’s going on the States right now. We don’t have any leadership in Washington for the time being and Trump would probably keep having his dumb Nuremberg rallies until the last MAGA diship keeled over and did the WuFlop. Ignorant morons.

But that’s what they want, I guess. They want a tyrant. See you at the polls.

Mulling The Possible Arrival Of The ‘#WuFlop’ To America #CoronaVirus #COVID19

Our Future?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


One of the more alarming things to come out of CoronaVirus is the “WuFlop.” This is when someone just out of the blue faceplants, sometimes writhing on the ground aftewards. It’s crazy whack. To date, that hasn’t happened in the United States.

And I’m saying if it did happen in, say Times Square, and it was recorded it would likely be seen on TV immediately and would freak people out so badly that the entire country would come to a grinding halt. In fact, I would say that, along with a lot of elderly people dying in South Florida and the entire nation of, say, Iceland abruptly getting sick, would be a major indication that what’s happening to Italy, Iran and South Korea was about to happen to the United States in a big way.

It would be, albeit for a few days, something out of a horror movie. We would abruptly realize that a huge, deep swath of the population was sick with COVID19 and that the nation was going to be as weak as it was on 9/11 not for hours, but for days, weeks and months. The entire world order would then collapse –as would the global economy — and, well, heroes would be made, cowards would be shamed and all would be remembered. I think it goes without saying that Mike Pence — someone the MAGA base doesn’t really like all that much — is being set up for a fall so some ethno-state advocate like The Kooch can take his place.

Anyway. I have no idea what is going to happen. but we’re pretty much one WuFlop away from mass panic in the United States. I might not get a lot of play on the cable nets at first, but if started to happen too much, it would quickly bounce from The Drudge Report to more mainstream outlets. That’s the way such scandalous things have happened in the past. A lot of WuFlops happening out in public would not be easy to hide. WuFlops are just too dramatic, too surreal.

If they started to happen a lot, they would be noticed.

The Gray Plague & TMZ’s Moment Of Journalistic Glory

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Someone read one of my posts about possibility of The Gray Plague and was quite sure I had “Trump Derangement Disorder” the likes of which they had never seen. First, fuck that guy. Second, if you ain’t got haters you ain’t poppin. And, second, I think we definitely need to keep and eye on South Florida. If we started to get reports of an unusual number of deaths there then, well, we know my fears of a Gray Plague are being realized.

I only think this is even possible because we don’t have any metric for how many cases are in the United States right now. While South Korea has tested 20,000 people, the United States has tested about 500. So, the only metric we will have to measure if it’s here or not is any unusual levels of sickness in the general populace. While I have been talking about how I think Iceland will suffer for the sins of our healthcare system because of how many Americans visit there in a year — I also think there’s one thing we would notice: a lot of old powerful and well known people dying in a rather abrupt fashion.

If you had between 1.3% and 15% of the elderly population of South Florida — or the rest of the country for that matter — being to die at a rather rapid rate, someone, somewhere would notice. The one organization that would likely benefit briefly by a surreal number of elderly celebrities dying would be, of course, TMZ. They would be something of our trip wire because they would the the one organization that would break the news of 40 elderly celebrities dying in 24 hours. One thing I just don’t know is how many elderly people, in real terms, would die if the absolute worst happened. Are we talking 1 million? 10 Million? What? I can’t imagine it could possibly be 10 million, but who knows. I know I don’t.

Or, put another way, we are likely about to enter about a year of unprecedented instability on a global scale. Living through history of such a a scope will suck big time. When it’s all over, some basic assumptions about life that we have now may no longer be accurate, for better or worse. I would prefer a few hundred thousand old people not die in the next year directly from COVID19. It would be a tragedy just like the Civil War or the first two world wars. I hope everything works out and I can, at last, give my full attention to the novel I’m developing.

‘Heroes Will Be Made. Cowards Will Be Shamed. All Will Be Remembered’ #WuFlu #Pandemic

My level of expertise about pandemic.
Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

All the datapoints point to a World War 2-level event careening towards the United States at an alarming rate. Now, let me state for the record that when it comes to virology I’m nothing more than Brian Fellows. But I do have a background in journalism and I at least TRY to be factual and encourage people not to wallow in fear porn.

I struggle to think back to what happened with WW2 and how you might apply it to the modern world. WW2, just as whatever the fuck you want to call the thing about to happen to the United States, was a process. It had phases. It had ups and downs. Heroes were made. Cowards were shamed. It changed everything. Overnight the children of the Lost Generation became the Greatest Generation.

A few things are likely to happen. First, when Twitter liberals realize that the 2020 campaign is likely to be canceled due to basic safety issues, then their minds are going to go Galactic Mind on us pretty fucking quick. You could get paranoid and say they KNOW what MAY happened and they just don’t want to scare people until, well, they’re not scaring people they’re just observing what’s going on around us. If this is true, I feel this is a disservice to their duty as public intellectuals. It makes the lot of them look callow and complicit in not warning people of the potential dangers ahead.

My current belief is the entire thing we’re about to face is going to be about 12 months. So, in about a year, things will slowly get back to “normal.”But, really, they won’t go back to normal. We’re going to be in a new era that will at least have a growing stability to it, whatever it is, whatever it’s called. But I don’t think the United States is going to make it. We’re just too divided. Or, put another away, there are three possblities ahead of the States.

  1. Division
    The United States in one year will well on its way to snapping into two countries — one Center Right, one Center Left.
  2. Dystopia
    MAGA will freak out and start murdering everyone they disagree with — like me!
  3. Defiance
    The United States survives and we “renew our vows” as a nation if you will, and finally remember that we’re all citizens, not Blue or Red.

Which one do I think will happen? I dunno. My mind tells me 1 or 2, my heart tells me 3. So, I guess anything can happen.

I do wonder, however, how pop culture will respond. Remember, we don’t have any leadership, so while things are going to go really fast compared to World War 2, the first “phase” of whatever happens with the pandemic in the States is going to be pretty much mass confusion and finger pointing. Only once we realize this is not an event, but a process will heroes arise. But I will note that by 1943, even Hollywood was active in the war effort. So, maybe by, say, August?, even Hollywood stars will be thrown into the anti-pandemic effort. The whole thing is going to suck, though, guys. Really, really suck.

There won’t be any narrative at the time. Historians will GIVE it a narrative in hindsight (2020 hindsight). But when it happens, it’s going to be scary as fuck, especially if Little Rock Man lobs a few H-bombs in the US’ direction. The very real possibility that the two Koreas will finally go End Game on us should give everyone pause for thought. But HOPEFULLY that won’t happen. But if South Korea implodes and its military readiness suffers significantly, it’s almost inevitable.

But, again, I’M BRIAN FELLOWS! I have no idea what I’m talking about, ignore me. Keep the faith.

Feb. 22 Threat Assessment: Code Word ‘1941’ #WuFlu #CoronaVirus

Get ready.
Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


The disconnect between “world Twitter” and “American Twitter” has grown so huge, so surreal as to be rather existential. It’s almost as if Twitter was around in 1939-1941 and people like me realize — the Japanese are about to strike the States at any moment. It definitely feels like we’re in the twilight period before something historic and unprecedented happens. But let’s go through what’s going on with WuFlu right now.

America
Truth be told, they should have canceled the Nevada Caucus. All those people in the same room is less than optimal given that a yet-to-be-declared pandemic is whipping around the globe at an alarming rate. That we haven’t had it pop up in a big way in the States probably says more about poor cooperation between State and Federal authorities — and only four states have testing abilities — than it does about the number of cases actually taking place in the country. I keep expecting 40 elderly celebrities to drop dead within a 48 hour period from WuFlu and that hasn’t happened yet. So, maybe I was wrong about that metric. But I do think it’s possible that things are going to get way, way worse than they have to because of a bungled response on the part of our doofus president’s administration. If there was a “Flughazi” scandal, it would be huge and likely maybe — maybe — be the thing that brought down House Trump….but even then, it wouldn’t be until the middle of Trump’s second term. Trump’s not going anywhere for any reason. Even if there was a Second Great Depression. He’ll bribe Electors if he has to.

But there’s a huge wildcard, the thing that could change everything about campaign 2020 — what if they have to cancel the campaign because, well, we turn into fucking Wuhan on a national scale? Or if — God forbid — we have a massive “die off” off the old coots who run the country? I’m not a praying person, but I don’t wish anyone physical harm simply because I disagree with their politics. I would much rather just figure out how to survive the Fourth Reich than go through a pandemic. And there are no assurances that the “good guys” will win — see also, A Handmaid’s Tale.

South Korea, Iran, Italy
What’s going on in these three countries is an example of how Americans lulz anything that doesn’t involve, well, their country. Three major regional powers are being consumed by WuFlu and fucking Twitter Liberals are still obsessed with the 2020 Campaign. This is really, really fucking weird. But whenever the history of this moment is written — if we get the chance to write it — this will likely be seen as, say, November 1941. World War WuFlu is on its way — and maybe even The Gray Plague — and Twitter Liberals are completely indifferent. It’s shocking. Both South Korea and Iran have geopolitical issues that complicate their national faceplanting. South Korea, specifically being written off could cause not just sharp, if brief economic nose dive, it could also cause a major regional war that will suuuuuuuck.

9 Months That Shook The World
I believe we may have a sequel to 9 Days That Shook The World if the absolute worst happens with WuFlu. I just doubt the governments of China, Russia or the States will survive as they currently exist. I love America with all my heart, but what Trump has started, WuFlu may finish. The country may collapse in reform into two different countries — or MAGA will go full Nazi and use ICE camps to have killing American Killing Fields. You pick your poison on that one. The Russians are ripe for another revolution (probably in association with Putin using the confusion of a pandemic to start a general war against Ukraine). And things can only get so bad in China before, well, it just implodes. This is probably the most speculative of this post, but at least the conditions are there for what I suggest to have happen, happen.

Burn, Hollywood, Burn
I still think it may be a year of people not going to the movies that will lead to “immersive media” rising from the ashes like mammals after the asteroid that killed the dinosaurs. The entire infotainment industrial complex is going to get nuked if the worst happens. Talk about creative destruction! I really hope this doesn’t happen, but it’s at least possible.

The Gray Plague: #WuFlu #CoronaVirus Threat Assessment For Feb 20, 2020

Maybe, maybe not.
Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


I continue to believe that the next 48 hours –between now on Thursday evening and, say, until just after the Sunday chat shows are over — will determine a lot about our fate. If we’ve essentially stabilized and nothing troubling happens by that point NYC time, then, well, we can all go back to contemplating life under the Fourth Reich.

But if my fears are realized, then, well, yikes! So, let’s go through a risk assessment given what is known right this moment.

South Korea
My fears of exponential growth weren’t exactly assuaged just now when I learned there are 45 new cases reported just in the last 24 hours (3 in Seoul.) If that number jumps to 100+ tomorrow, then, well, watch out. AND, remember, there are 500,000 soldiers under arms in South Korea and if you can’t prevent them from getting sick en mass, then we may be looking at a shooting war between the ROK and the DPRK because 1) the DPRK may be imploading, too, 2) a sick army can’t fight effectively 3) the leader of the free world is a deranged, moronic lunatic. I have a theory that a problem in Korea is either solved in a very strange way or via a fistfight and a war caused by a pandemic would check off both those boxes in a macro historical sense.

Qom
Not really getting any sense that this is a new hotzone. Yeah, I’ve heard that as many as 9 people have died there from WuFlu, but that’s it. No sense it’s a hotzone. May be a one-off of some sort.

Wuhan
This seems — at least from the data I’m aware of — to be under control and slowly burning itself out. And, really, there still haven’t been that many deaths outside of Wuhan, so lulz? I guess Vox will tell me so eventually.

Blue Check Liberals
These guys are embarrassing themselves right now on Twitter. They’re so busy preening over their campaign 2020 hot takes that they are missing what could be the biggest new story of the year, if not the decade. They’re really living in a 9/10 mentality when a rolling, months-long 9/11 may be just about to strike in the next few days. But I guess it’s a lulz to them right now because what if it’s just another 1970s swine flu type of situation? They don’t want to look like fools, I guess. And, really, it’s very possible *I* am going to look like a fool getting so animated about all of this when it fizzles out. But I’m used to looking foolish and, generally, no one listens to me anyway. And I have a novel to work on. But we still don’t know yet. We just don’t know what’s going to happen.

Conclusion
This is still a moving target and no sense of what all the disparate datapoints mean. There’s no concrete sense of what we’re seeing. We haven’t reached the “inciting incident” when we’re like, “Yeah, this is a pandemic.” This weekend — the next 48 hours — will give us a real indication one way or another if we’re going to avoid any type of immediate threat.


Life During WARS Time #CoronaVirus #WuFlu

The future?
Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


First, let me make it clear that I’m not an expert. So, if you use that metric, you should just ignore everything about to say. But, luz! But here you go, anyway.

Should our fears be realized and the worst happens –a pandemic that might one be one day referred to as The Gray Plague — it is not going to be fun. It is also not going to be an event, but rather a process. This means while there might be “battles” now again that would be considered events, in reality, it would be a war-like event that will take place over days, weeks and months until we get a vaccine.

The issue the essentials of life are a social event. So, if the worst happens on a global scale entire industries aren’t going to make it. Hollywood and the newspaper industry will be completely destroyed if no one leaves their house for six months. What’s more things that are seen as “cutting edge” right now, like drone delivery and MX technology, could be pretty much a way of life in a year IF the ABSOLUTE WORST happens.

But, the crux of the issue is life is going to suck for millions if this happens. It will not be fun. It will not be a video game. It will involve fear, death and tragedy on a scale not seen since 1914-1945. Or, if you really wanted to take it to the next level — we’re talking Black Plague – Mongol Invasion bad if the death rate for the elderly of 5%-15% holds up. The Browning of America that would otherwise take decades to occur might happen in months.

I just don’t see the States surviving that, if it happened.

We’d end up with two nations a center-Left United States of Canada and a center-Right Trumplandia. Or something. It would suck. All it would take would be a number of MAGA thought leaders dropping dead in quick succession because of WuFlu and, well, that particular conspiracy writes itself. Or, put another way, you could probably add massive political violence from the Right to the general clusterfuck that multiple hotzones across the States would cause.

It would all happen in a rolling fashion over the course of the months it took to get a vaccine pushed out from the lab. I don’t have much faith that way, way too many people — maybe even me! — may die before it’s over with. And, remember, it could all endup a lot darker than you might ever imagine — The Handmaid’s Tale Scenario, if you will.

Ugh.

Corona Virus Datapoints Are All Over The Place

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have no idea what’s going on with WuFlu right now. In some respects, it seems as though we may have dodged a bullet. Or, to put it another way, there aren’t any new additional hotzones as of yet anywhere outside of Wuhan itself.

And, yet, there definitely is a general sense that any moment that might change. A lot of cases are popping up all over world now, but there’s no existential explosion in cases from any one place. It’s a real headscratcher.

It’s possible that while there might be additional cases of people getting sick, we’re pretty much over any growth in deaths. I just don’t know. That’s the outcome I hope for. I just can’t bear to think what the alternative might be. It’s possible that at any moment we’re in for a major escalation in cases all over the globe at the same time –a pandemic.

The only thing that is really bothering me at this point is how at-risk the American elderly population is. The WuFlu mortality rate among the elderly is pretty brutal — it’s in the 75%-90% range. But I just can’t imagine it could get THAT bad. That would be astonishing on a historical level.

More likely, it’s going to be simply the perception of a pandemic — and the associated slowdown in the global economy that we have to worry about. A million Chinese could die and as long as one American doesn’t die, Americans will be too busy enjoying the “humming economy” to care why suddenly it wasn’t has humming anymore. Nothing matters in the Fourth Reich, don’t you know.

I keep saying the next few days will tell us what’s going to happen and then…nothing happens. I do have a novel to develop, so I really need to just focus on that for the time being.

Mulling A Potential WuFlu Pandemic

Shelton Bumgarner
Our future?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have no idea what’s going to happen with WuFlu and you probably shouldn’t listen to me. But I will note as of right now, WuFlu is an abstract to Americans on a historical level.

Once that changes, then it will be a record scratch to a lot of people who are otherwise raising their kids and enjoying the “humming economy.” If that obliviousness changes, it will likely because someone keels over in a rather public and conspicuous manner.

If you want an early warning about what might happen, keep an eye on well-known elderly people. If, say, a series of well-known old people in the West simply dropped dead in quick succession, then that’s your cue that we’re in trouble. The WuFlu mortality rate among the elderly is a sight to see.

The thing I hope we are able to do sooner rather than later is to stop seeing these events through the prism of hyper partisanship. Once everyone freaks the fuck out and people begin to get sick and die all over the world at the same time — if that does, in fact, happen — then we have to see ourselves not as Republican or Democrat, but as patriots, citizens and humans.

Of course, this is not going to happen at first. Twitter liberals will blame poor policy and MAGA will say it’s all part of God’s will. This will delay any type of practical response as both sides attempt to score short term political points. But, remember, if there’s a second wave of deaths in the States with multiple hotzones, four events are likely to be seen in hindsight as what aggravated the situation — the impeachment trial, the Superbowl, the Iowa Caucuses and the State of The Union Address.

But maybe that won’t happen. Hopefully that won’t happen. Hopefully there will be no WuFlu cowboys crashing into the bubble of modern American political history that is a musical dance scene and the only thing we’ll notice is gas is a little cheaper.

The Politics Of Pandemic Perception

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


I have no idea if we’re in a pandemic or not. For me to know for sure, a few things would have to happen. I just don’t know what’s going on. I’m NOT a medical professional and all I can give you is an educated opinion based on what I’ve come to believe from looking at Twitter.

  • There would have to be major outbreaks of WuFlu all over the world at the same time.
  • Significant deaths would have to take place in the West
  • People would start to make economic decisions on their fears associated with WuFlu

None of those things have happened yet in real terms, so it could still be that this is just going to be another one of those scares that stays an abstract in the West. Given how much the States is in debt to China, it’s at least a little less possible for Trump to demagogue the situation and blame Chinese people for all his problems. Not saying he won’t try, but his usual racist routine may not be as effective.

Right now, my main metric is the number of fatalities — especially in the West. But in real terms, it could be that the fatality rate stays relatively low but the perception is enough that it causes a panic that is totally not connected to the size of the threat.

All it takes is one person being video taped keeling over from WuFlu in Times Square and all hell will break loose.

Anyway, stay safe and don’t panic.