Tag: We Are So Fucked

Impeachment & The Politics Of (No) Shame

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

Trump’s still not taking the impeachment drive against him seriously. I know this because we’re rushing through the Stormy Daniels playbook at lightning speed and he doesn’t seem all that concerned.

It’s when we come to the end of this playbook and he still faces impeachment that things are going to go haywire. One, Trump while criminally incompetent at his job, is in trouble in the first place in large part because he’s figured out how to use the levers of power to do his bidding. So, the moment he actually feels there’s an existential threat, he’s likely to do concrete, serious things in an attempt to end the march towards actually impeaching him.

Starting a war seems like the most obvious thing he would do. A war with Iran seems rather teed up for him, but for one thing — it’s my impression Iran is Russian client state. So, that would make things a little bit more complicate. Trump wants a major regional war for two reasons. One, it makes him a war president, which gives him more power. Two, he wants to wag the dog and the ability to use Lee Greenwood at any of his upcoming Nuremberg Rallies. Third, it gives the base a talking point — you can’t impeach the president, we’re at war! They get the own the moment at the Thanksgiving dinner table.

While Iran is still an option, there is a far more serious, far darker possibility –the DPRK. Trump barely believes anyone but Ivanka and himself really exist, so Trump could very well use an excuse of some sort to dramatically ratchet up tensions with the DPRK. Trump’s both stupid enough and completely devoid of empathy enough to actually start a jaw-dropping war with the DPRK in an effort to — in his mind — make it politically impossible for impeachment to proceed.

Now, the reason why this is even an issue is Trump and, by extension the Republican Party, is completely devoid of shame. They don’t believe in liberal democracy and they crave power for power’s sake like a vampire craves fresh blood. Add to this that Republicans are prepared to take the Trump Train to whatever destination it may go, and, well, you have a receipt for disaster.

In my view, at least, that means if Trump’s sole goal is to stay in power, he is going to “win.” In the highly unlikely event that his polls numbers crater into the teens, he isn’t going anywhere. His strategy remains the same — getting the base to turn out in Nov. 2020 and to use that as the Sword of Damocles over the heads of elected Republican politicians.

As such, from Trump’s point of view, as long as he can still appointed young hack judges and set policy, it honestly doesn’t matter how low his poll ratings are. That’s it, he wins. And, if need be, he can always depend on Russians hacking the election or simply bribing individual Electors to throw the election for him. That doesn’t even begin to address his pardon power.

So, really, the Republican Party and its cult will win the day because they have no shame and their goal is power for power’s sake. There honestly isn’t anything we can do. I’m glad we seem to be on the path to impeachment, but even if Trump’s crimes are extremely clear cut, Senate Republicans will never convict him. Sometime around Feb., Trump’s acquitted and even though his poll numbers are now about 20%, he will go about his merry way as if nothing happened.

When you have no shame and only care about power, that’s how things are going to shake out.

Having said all that, there’s kind of a dramatic and frightening ray of hope to all of this — Trump himself. Anyone who would call up the Ukrainian president the day after Bob Mueller’s “poor optics” testimony gave him a political pardon, is a pretty adept self-own artist.

So, while in theory Trump is likely to not only escape conviction but get a second term criminally, in practice he’s also likely to finally lose his mind. The pressure of impeachment is likely going to make him finally snap.

And, as such, in the end, it won’t be politics it will be Trump’s own mind that might end The Thousand Year Trump. While his Republican enablers will simply say Trump’s “joking” at first, even braindead Republicans might blanch at having to explain Trump tweeting out a dick pic. They’ll do it, of course, and it won’t really matter because they have no shame. But there’s a least a chance that after a few months of Trump acting in a fashion that is demonstrably and egregiously indefensible (far more so than anything he’s already done) the ground may shift under Trump and The Pence Pivot will take place.

Don’t hold your breath, though. Sometimes you have to articulate things just to make yourself feel better.

We’re Looking At Impeachment All Wrong

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

I hate to break it to you, folks, but if impeachment really does reach a tipping point we’ve entered the darkest timeline. It won’t be impeachment, it will be Trump’s reaction to it that we’ll be talking about.

Trump has long had some sort of chronic mental problem. The stress of simply an impeachment investigation — which would likely take months — would, in it self, potentially cause him to decompensate. It’s would make a lot of sense if Trump found himself in something of a logic trap. He would absolutely feel as though he would survive an Senate vote. But he would also absolutely feel paranoid that he might not.

So he goes bonkers.

I therefore propose that in the end, it won’t even be impeachment that is Trump’s downfall — it will be his reaction to it. If Trump finally goes off the deep end, some astonishing surreal thing will happen. The first will be MAGA Stalwarts will find themselves defending ever-more demonstrably indefensible things on Trump’s part. First they will simply say he was “joking.” But there will come a point when they take the final plunge into their own destruction. Trump will tweet out a dick pic. Trump will begin to tweet out the N-word to Obama. And they will defend it, thinking that Trump, like always, will stay in control of the narrative.

And so, in the end, Trump’s tendency to self-own will get so absolutely bad that there might be an intervention, of sorts. They might propose to Trump that he gets to choose Pence’s replacement as veep. And maybe a promise of a full pardon after Pence wins re-election in 2020. Trump accepting such an offer would be the best case scenario for Republicans.

The worse case scenario is he won’t accept it. And in the end, Trump so far gone mentally that the Senate finally does, in fact, convict him not so much because of any particular crime, but for the complete failure of the 25th Amendment to work.

And then, I’m afraid, we have a once-in-generation event. Young people won’t reference 9/11, they’ll reference Trump’s downfall. It will probably play out a lot like the OJ’s slow motion police chase in a white Bronco. It will last days, even weeks. The entire country will grind to a halt as we attempt to lure Trump out of The White House.

It will be a dark day in our history.

Here is how it may play out. I wrote this some time ago, but the premise is the same.

9/10ths
a story fragment of a possible near future
by Shelton Bumgarner

April, 2019

The eyes of the world were on the White House.

Just moments before, President Donald J. Trump, 45th president of the United States, had been convicted by 67 members of the Senate for a whole list of high crimes and misdemeanors. Trump had for weeks now been ranting on Gab about his case in the Senate, bouncing back and forth between threats to start a war with Iran or the DPRK and not-so-subtle hints that he might take his own life should he be convicted by the Senate.

And, now, at last, the moment of truth had arrived.

Trump legally, at least, was no longer president, but he had been oddly silent since the verdict had been announced with great fanfare from the well of the Senate. Trump’s conviction had come after months of investigations on the part of the now Democratic Congress. The length and breath of Trump’s malfeasance discovered by these hearings had rocked the nation to its very core. On more than one occasion, MAGA talking heads on cable news had been interrupted by astonishing breaking news that left them, for once, unable or unwilling to defend the president.

The hearings had ground on for months to such an extent that Trump’s approval had slowly drifted to the 20s and stayed there consistently. Trump’s support was now made up of the very rich and the very poor. Oddly, despite Trump’s near constant demands on Twitter for violence on the part of his supporters, little, if any was reported. Trump had grown so frustrated that he had all but abandoned Twitter at one point for the more receptive Gab social media platform. Though on more than one occasion Rudy Giuliani had made it very clear it was within the rights of the president to declare martial law if he deemed it in the best interests of the nation. More than one delegation of Senate Republicans had gone to the White House to explain to Trump that he was going to be convicted, no avail. Trump made it clear to them, in not so many words that his simply living in the White House made him president, a sentiment best expressed by the legal saw that, “Possession is 9/10ths of the law.”

Finally, a post to Gab came out: “My so-called ‘conviction’ is the work of the Deep State and as such illegitimate. I remain president.”

This set off a chain of events, the likes of which Americans had never seen. Suddenly, everyone on Twitter became a Constitutional scholar as everyone studied the exact wording of the Constitution as to what happens if the president is removed from office by the Senate. The wording is quite clear: he or she is no longer president and that’s it.

Nowhere in the Constitution did it explain what to do if the president simply decided to ignore the Senate. What’s more, nowhere in the Constitution did it state what to do with the nuclear launch codes should a president be removed from office and he refuse to accept the decision of the Senate.

The next few hours were chilling as they were surreal for millions of people not just in the United States but around the globe. The issue of Trump’s physical access to America’s nuclear launch codes was suddenly at the forefront of everyone’s mind. Though it was finally announced that while the nuclear football remained in Trump’s possession, Sec. of Defense Mattis had ordered the American armed forces to stand down for the duration of the crisis.

Trump, on Twitter, was as defiant and unhinged as usual.He threatened to kill himself. He threatened to start a nuclear war. He vowed to declare martial law.

The usual suspects on cable news did their best to spin all of this for Trump. As an anxious nation waited for the now former president to leave the White House, a cavalcade of former Republican Senators and Trump White House staffers attempted to make the former president’s case. Their final argument was that for the good of the country, Trump should be allowed to remain president, despite his lawful conviction by the Senate.

Things began to move rapidly at this point.

Vice President Pence was sworn in but Chief Justice Roberts in a dark, somber event in the Old Executive Building. Meanwhile, it was learned Trump had quietly replaced his Secret Service detail with a private security force that made it clear it was prepared to defend Trump until the bloody end.

At this point, two things happened. A final bipartisan delegation of Congressional leaders came to the White House grounds under the flag of truce. During the course of an hour-long meeting, Trump screamed at them that they had never supported him and the world would be better off if it just ended instead of allowed the forces of the Deep State to ruin America. He made it absolutely clear that he would never leave the Oval Office willingly.

With that, they left.

Next, a surreal, bizarre event, the FBI slowly began to surround the White House. There was much debate online and on TV about how long the nation should wait for Trump to leave the White House. CNN went so far as to do a deep dive into the exact amount of food the White House grounds might have available at any one moment.

Finally, shots rang out from the White House as the battle was joined. It took several hours but in the end, the FBI was finally able to secure the facility. Nearly a dozen personnel on both sides died during the course of the Battle of The White House.

In what would become ionic footage, Trump was quietly escorted from the White House grounds. He spent the remainder of his days ranting on Twitter and Gab that he was the rightful president.

Impeachment Crisis Notes For Sept. 23rd, 2019

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

We have not reached a tipping point yet. There has yet to be a sudden rush towards impeachment by the House Democratic caucus. If it happens at all, it appears it will happen later in the week, maybe in the Thursday – Friday time frame.

The desire to impeach is just about equal to the desire to “let the people decide” in 2020. Every day impeachment hasn’t officially begun is another day that Trump has won. If the articles of impeachment haven’t been sent to the Senate by around Jan. 15th, then all of this is a very moot point.

Mich McConnell is likely to invoke a rule that you can’t try a president in the Senate in the same year as presidential election. That will be the big shock of early 2020. Trump will see this as a gimme. There will not be a free and fair election if this happens.

At least on a Constitutional and strategic level, Nancy Pelosi is now complicit in not punishing Trump. If she doesn’t recognize this for the existential crisis it is and throw resources at the impeachment investigation immediately, history will not judge her kindly.

This is actually, at least superficially, a pretty jaw dropping scandal. Not just Trump, but Pence and Rudy are implicated in all of this. If we were a functioning democracy, they would all be at real risk of having significant legal jeopardy. As it is, lulz.

As mentioned, we’re long past the point where impeachment proceedings and the 2020 campaign don’t overlap. Both influence the other. So, really, the thing we would need to do for a proper impeachment proceedings — investigate every possible avenue of corruption, obstruction of justice, abuse of power and collusion / conspiracy, is simply not viable. Add to this that Pelosi has starved House Democrats of any budget and, really, things are rather bleak.

The only reason why impeachment suddenly came to the forefront in a big way was a massive unforced error on the part of Trump himself. And he is likely to slow walk and stonewall the whole thing as much as possible. Again, this makes the possibility of any sort of successful impeachment proceeding done in a timely manner (read, before mid-Jan. 2020) impossible.

Thus, the whole thing is likely be half-assed and half-hearted. And by the time the articles are voted on, the 2020 campaign will be in full swing. I honestly don’t know how all that would work out. As I said, I believe Leader McConnell is likely to make a big deal of “for the sake of the country” the Senate not try the president during an election year.

Two last things.

One, if I had limited funds and a short amount of time, I would have a day-long hearing with half-dozen psychologists to talk about the president’s state of mind.

House Democrats need to radicalize a little bit and be prepared to do things that might enrage the Right. Namely, I would suggest they use their ability to jail people for contempt in a gratuitous fashion. I saw someone on Twitter use some weird bullshit game theory reason why this would be a bad idea. Fuck that. Just do it. How else are you going to make the criminals running the government take things seriously?

Beware ‘The Pence Pivot!’

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

I’ve written about this before, but it’s ever more timely. There’s a greater than-zero sum chance that very soon a lot of people are going to The Pence Pivot. This is when at the very point you would otherwise agree with me that maybe Trump was mistake in the first place, you, without missing a beat, say, “It doesn’t matter. Trump’s gone. I support Pence. I didn’t even vote for Trump, really, I voted for Pence.”

This is an outrage on any number of different levels. The chief amongst them being, your previous support of Trump becomes little more than your similar support for the Iraq War based on the lie of WMD. You never have to “own” (as MAGA people are so fond of saying) the fact that you did, at one point, support Trump. And you would still support Trump but for the fact that he’s become so politically toxic that it’s difficult for you to do so. Since you now have a more traditional pol like Pence to support, you have a ready off-ramp for your original insane support of Trump. You don’t have to “own” the political hell you put us all through because you were in a MAGA cult.

Who gets possession of the MAGA cult should the House Trump implode and The Thousand Year Trump doesn’t last…quite…as long is up for debate. A lot it depends on how, exactly, Trump might leave office (By the way, this is impossible. Trump will never resign and he will never be convicted in the Senate.) Really, the only way I could see Trump maybe leaving office is if he could get a full pardon and the right to choose Pence’s successor as veep. If he got that, then either Don Jr. or Ivanka might become veep and be in an ideal position to run for president in their own right to protect Trump’s “legacy.” Ivanka would be a strange one to do that, but you do you daddy’s little girl.

But as of right now, I just don’t see anything coming of TrumpUkraine in the first place. This is probably just another Trump scandal that gets people like me excited, only to fizzle out as the Stormy Daniels Playbook is used ever so effectively.

A Very Simple Case For Trump’s Impeachment

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

Despite what the esteemed access journalists of The New York Times and The Washington Post may have you believe, Trump is not a diabolical political theorist. He’s not calculating the subtle messaging necessary to convince a housewife just outside of Phillie in a sexless marriage that she should vote for him despite her reservations.

In fact, Trump is simply a very lucky doofus. He’s nothing more than Being There’s Chauncey Gardner if he was on the cusp of losing his mind. There’s no grand strategy other than some basic mindfucks he learned at the feet of Roy Cohen.

A prime example of this is the origins of the TrumpUkraine clusterfuck. If Trump was REALLY such a fucking modern day Machiavelli don’t you think he would have weighed the political pardon the “poor optics” of Bob Mueller’s testimony to Congress gave him? He might have used his SuperMind to lay low and simply coast to an easy re-election. Then, in his second term, he could turn the switch on his sinister second phase.

Is that what he did? Nope. Smarty pants saw his pardon not as an opportunity to lay the groundwork for the much heralded Thousand Year Trump, but as permission to actively pressure a foreign power to collude with him to hurt his likely political rival in 2020. What’s more, doofus did it on a veritable party line. If that’s not insight into numbnut’s true political savvy, I don’t know what is.

And, as such, that’s why he has to be impeached now, damn the political consequences. He’s proven that he’s not only a barely functioning man-child, he’s a willful one at that.

The only reason why Trump’s been so successful to date is a combination of a strong economy, the idiotic disorganization of his opponents and abject lack of shame on the part of Republicans. He owes everything to outside forces beyond his control. Yes, in a sense, one could say he has a native ability to vocalize the rage of the white disenfranchised volk. But even that is grading on a curve. Why else are people hyping Tucker Carlson in 2024? He’s just another hapless racist doofus who’s been on TV.

The Trump threat is existential. If we don’t go down fighting, then Trump is only going to see this as a sign of weakness and up the ante. Trump is so stupid in real terms, that if he felt like he might actually be not only impeached, but convicted, he might be willing to call up Little Rocket Man and ask him to start a war in an effort to wag the dog.

I wish I was joking, but I’m Not.

That such a suggestion isn’t on the face of it too outrageous to even consider is enough to demand impeachment immediately.

Something’s Gotta Give

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

As of Monday, Sept. 23, 2019, TrumpUkraine is following the usual Trump scandal playbook. It might be happening a little faster because of the severity and brazenness of the alleged crime, but we’re definitely cruising towards this wrapping up as a net plus for House Trump.

The press will willfully give House Trump the cover to appoint a Special Prosecutor to “look into” the Bidens “just to be sure” as a matter of “transparency.” While high information voters will be angry, the average person who doesn’t follow politics will not know who to believe. Besides, the economy is doing well. Lulz.

No one is showing any political courage at this point. There will come a point very soon when we’re so close to the beginning of the 2020 election cycle that Nancy Pelosi will put out a statement saying while Trump should be impeached, for the good of the nation, it’s best if we just “let the people decide” in November 2020.

It’s definitely not looking like absolutely nothing is going to happen to House Trump because of TrumpUkraine. Or, to put it in political terms, while the general consensus will be Trump should be impeached, he won’t be because the 2020 campaign will have begun. Surely he won’t be re-elected, will he?

Without any sense of there being consequences, Trump will grow more brazen. Lulz.

V-Log: A Deep Dive Into Our #TrumpUkraine Political Clusterfuck

Shelton Bumgarner

Some thoughts.

A Funny Thing May Happen On The Way To Iowa #TrumpUkraine

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

First, let me say for the record that I’m almost always wrong. I speculate a lot, but that’s more a matter of me liking to daydream than any sort of special insight. So, in a sense, it’s likely I’m wrong again.

And, yet, because of the brazen nature of Trump’s criminal behavior with Ukraine, it seems to me that anyone who continues to talk about how we’re just going to beat Trump in 2020 like we beat him in 2018 is missing the forest for the trees.

So far, the only thing that makes this particular scandal different is the intensity of the outrage associated with it has lasted just a little bit longer than normal. And, in a sense, that might be more a function of the media needing to hype the DNI’s testimony on Thursday. I would suggest everyone hold off on 2020 horse race hot takes until at least the hearing takes place.

In all likelihood, the hearing’s going to be a dud, just like Mueller’s. Trump and MAGA get to crow about all the lies of the “lamestream media” and that will be that. In that case, I just don’t see how there’s going to be a free and fair election. I’ve gotten some pushback on my belief that autocratic populists always win. My reponse is the Electoral College is a uniquely American feature of our election process. Democrats could easily win the popular vote, only to lose the Electoral College because of any number of different skullduggery techniques by House Trump.

There’s a tiny chance that the entire march to the Iowa Caucuses could be thrown for a loop. There’s at least a greater-than-zero chance that some pretty speculator political events could take place between now and early 2020. I have my doubts because, well, Trump has a cult of personality. And, yet, for the time being, I have a nagging, lingering feeling that it’s a least possible all these people telling us that this or that person will benefit from not impeaching Trump…may….have…their plans scrambled.

But, in all likelihood, Trump is fine. This will all fizzle out like it always does and darkness will fall.

Why The #TrumpUkraine Scandal Is Different

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

Trump has generated numerous sizable scandals over the run of his administration to date. To date, either they explode for about a 24 hour period, or they gradually fade from view as people process what happened. The most recent scandal, TrumpUkraine, is different for one important reason — it’s existential.

Any outcome will mark a watershed in modern American politics. It doesn’t matter what happens, we will have entered a new era. If it goes as expected and after the acting DNI testifies before Congress on Thursday all the energy for impeachment fizzles out, then Trump will be even more brazen in his corrupt, criminal behavior. If this is dismissed as just another scandal trumped up by liberals with Trump Derangement Disorder, then there will not be a free and fair election in 2020. Not even close. It’s going to be pretty perfunctory.

There really will be no stopping Trump at that point. He will be above the law. The Constitution won’t really even be in effect anymore. That’s the most likely outcome. I would give it about a 99% likelihood. Republicans have no shame and Democrats have no courage.

But, just for fun, let’s imagine things don’t quite go that way. If instead of all the momentum for impeachment abruptly vanishing like during the later part of the Muller Report situation, what if the pressure to somehow miraculously increases. If the issue of the complaint itself being released becomes the focal point, then I would imagine all those young hack MAGA judges on the Federal bench would slow walk it. That would be their way of effectively making impeachment a moot point. The impeachment investigation would dwindle over the months of the case bouncing around the court system and Trump uses the levers of power to win reelection. Sometime in the middle of his second term it goes to SCOTUS and he wins. Again, game over.

That scenario is also far more likely than the good guys winning. But let’s, just for fun again, imagine that somehow it doesn’t get slow walked. Imagine that it actually bounces around the Judiciary pretty quick. Then, again, any decision would be significant. If SCOTUS sides with Trump, then darkness falls.

But if somehow SCOTUS shocks us all and rules again Trump, then that would be the final endgame. As I’ve said before, this is not 1974 and Trump’s not Nixon. Trump would rather destroy the Constitution than turn over the complaint. So, he ignores the ruling and the Senate won’t convict him. Ta-da. Again, darkness falls.

If somehow the Senate did convict him — which it would not, never — then we have a 9/11 level crisis while we wait to evict Trump from the Oval Office. He will never leave if he was somehow convicted. We will have to physically remove him.

This Is Not 1974. Trump’s Not Nixon — The Most Bonkers Trump Scenarios I Can Think Of Going Forward

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

For someone so paranoid and willing to fight back, Trump often doesn’t take existential problems seriously at first. Several times over the last four or so years, starting with the Access Hollywood tape, Trump has initially laughed off or dismissed scandals threatened his political existence.

So, in a sense, we’re still in the beginning stages of this particular situation. Trump’s playing with the press’ mind, tell them he’s “considering” releasing the complaint against them, when, in fact, he has no intention of doing it. This causes confusion and initial relief among people who are growing ever-more worried about what’s going on. Soon enough, of course, we’re going to find out this is total bullshit. If past is any indication, if Trump “releases” the complaint it will be at first a summary and then once momentum to impeach dies down, he’ll get Bill Barr to release a heavily redacted version of the complaint. At least, that would follow the well-worn path hone by the Stormy Daniels and Muller Report situations. Trump appears to be using a variety of different oft-used techniques at this point. And they appear to be working. So, really, there’s no need for him to really be all that concerned.

Having said that, while I still believe in practical terms the current Washington convention wisdom is while Trump should be impeached, he won’t be impeached, I do feel a level of tension on Twitter I’ve not seen since the worst days of the lead up to The Muller Report. And some of the usual suspects when it comes to opposition to Trump have clearly been subtly radicalized by what we know so far about what Trump is accused of doing.

And so, really, Trump would have every reason to believe that while things might get a little bumpy between now and Thursday when the acting DNI is set to testify, in real terms this is just another scandal that will blow over. There will be all this excitement about an explosive testimony and it’ll be a big old dud. Within 24 hours, Trump will do God-only-knows what in his never-ending quest to secure re-election using any available lever of power at his disposal. Take into consideration that either Trump will instruct the guy not to testify in the first place or make it clear he can only talk about such a limited number of topics that it’s nearly moot for him to speak at all What’s more, he is likely to do that old stonewalling routine TrumpWorld is so fond of where he never actually invokes Executive Privilege but uses it anyway not to have to answer any questions. And House Democrats are completely incompetent when it comes to questioning.

As such, as of Sunday afternoon, I would predict that by Friday morning MAGA will be crowing that yet again the lamestream media got it wrong and Trump should be able to simply stay in office for the rest of his life because that would be the only fair thing to do.

For this not to be the case, something dramatically different would have to happen. Something that diverged from the Stormy Daniels-Mueller Report playbook. I’m at a loss as to what that might be. Populist autocrats always win. They never lose once they’re in power. So, in that sense, it’s too late. The worst case scenarios of 2016 are about to happen. It’s just a matter of the specifics.

Now, simply to make myself feel better, I’m going to walk you through the most insane, bonkers scenarios I can possibly thing of what might happen if the impossible happens — political gravity actually begins to work again with Trump.

Trump Start A War
This is a gimmy. We’re already on the verge of a war with Iran. Within days of it becoming apparent that he faced an existential threat, Trump attacks Iran. Poof! Problem solved. By the time things get back to normal, Trump’s comfortably in this second term. Far less likely is somehow Trump starts a war with the DPRK. I always thought if there was Korean unification it would probably happen in some really weird way. Trump force-starting such a war in an effort to wag the dog would definitely fit the bill.

MAGA Murders The Whistleblower After A Trump “Joke”
While this one might seem somewhat hysterical, it would be appropriate for Trump to finally — in effect — kill someone on Fifth Ave and not lose a vote. As sinks in to our doofus president that he faces an existential political threat, Trump doxes the whistleblower on Twitter. He rants that the guy is a member of the Deep State and “jokes” that someone ought to teach him a lesson. Some rando MAGA jackass with an AR-15 shoots up the guys house and kills him and maybe a few family members. Lulz! Fox News sends “thoughts and prayers” and Brit Hume ever-so-seriously says we simply can’t hold the president responsible for a “joke” that caused an obviously mentally-ill person to commit such a tragedy.

The Roy Cohen Option
If Trump escapes political consequences AGAIN, then he orders Bill Barr to establish a Special Prosecutor to investigate Joe and Hunter Biden. Not only is everything muddled — like always — but Trump can always do the drip-drip-drip of 2016, only this time he’s in control of it. At strategic moments in 2020, Trump attacks the Bidens for this or that bullshit thing.

Trump Breaks The Constitution
In this scenario, Trump leans into all those young hack MAGA judges on the Federal bench. The release of the complaint bounces around for months — maybe even years. (But let’s say months.) It’s August 2020. This, in a sense, is a worst-case-scenario. Most likely Trump destroys faith in SCOTUS when he wins the case against him to release the complaint 5-4. Really, it would boil down to one person — Chief Justice Roberts. If he has a modicum of integrity, he will vote with the more liberal members of the court, giving us a 5-4 vote against Trump. This is not 1974 and Trump’s not Nixon. If Trump somehow miraculously lost the SCOTUS case, he would simply ignore it. That would be that. The entire Constitutional system collapses. Trump might actually get impeached, but Emmet Flood pops up when the case is briefly heard in the Senate. Trump easily escapes conviction. We never see the complaint or Trump’s taxes. House Trump enjoys The Thousand Year Trump. History looks back upon The United States as simply a longer-lived version of the Weimar Republic. Trump doesn’t even attempt to pretend the election is free and fair. Might even just make good on his “joke” and stay in office for the rest of his life.

If we get anywhere past this, well, we’re entering 9/11 levels of crisis.

Trump Resigns, With Conditions
So, if a bunch of Republicans Senators should happen to go to the White House a la 1974 and tell Trump he doesn’t have the votes, there is a chance that he would resign, but only with some pretty stiff conditions. One would be he would get a full pardon. The other one would be he would get to pick Pence’s replacement as Veep. Trump has a chat with his kids and somehow decides between the one he wants to fuck (Ivanka) and the one who has his name (Don Jr.) This would, in a sense, secure House Trump. In 2024, there’s a battle between House Trump and Pence. Guess who wins!

The Impossible Happens
This is so impossible, it’s almost a waste of time to even write these words — Trump is convicted in the Senate after he scoffs at the idea the doesn’t have the votes in the Senate. The only thing I can imagine in this situation would be, well, something pretty tragic. Trump holds up in the White House, refusing to acknowledge the decision. He rage-tweets all day long. He snaps because of the pressure losing the presidency. We have a few days of figuring out how to change the nuclear codes. Trump tweets out a dick pick. He calls Obama the N-word on Twitter. He threats to kill himself. He says anything and everything in an attempt to get the MAGA faithful to rush to the White House to protect him. For a surreal few days — maybe even weeks — Trump holds the entire county captive. Even I can’t predict how that particular situation might wrap up.

But, really, I think Trump has nothing to worry about. He’s going to cruise into a second term, weaponize the ICE camp infrastructure and I get a free bed in one of the camps.

In fact, I would say the only thing that makes this Ukraine scandal different is the severity of the crimes alledged makes it difficult for us to muddle through. There’s going to be a decision one way or another and whatever it is, there’s no turning back.