Now, let me state for the record that it’s not like I have reveled truth or anything. I’m not saying I can predicted the future, but it doesn’t take someone with a glowing magic orb to notice where trends are going. Having said all that, let me state for the record that I’m pro-choice and even I can see where things are going: Roe V. Wade is going to be over-turned sooner rather than later. I give it no longer than 20 years, but it’s probably closer to 10.
I am well aware that people have been predicting it demise for 30 years, but there are some cold hard facts that even its most ardent supporters can’t deny.
First and foremost is how important conservative judges are to the Republican Party. They were willing to lie prostrate in front of Trump in large part because, well, conservative judges. There simply is no equivalent counter-urge on the part of Democrats. When given the opportunity, it’s not like Democratic presidents are appointing really liberal, really young judges to the Supreme Court. But Republicans are hell bent on appointing the most conservative, youngest judges they can possibly scrap from the hysterical right wing.
Meanwhile, there’s Trump.
Trump seems to get off on destroying norms, so whenever one of the older liberal leaning SCOTUS judges finally retires or dies — and we all know it’s going to happen under Trump’s watch — it’s not like he’s going to give up the opportunity to give his base an ideological handjob. And given that the Senate detonated the “nuclear option,” there really is nothing to stop Trump from single-handedly killing Roe V. Wade through his appointments to SCOTUS.
Trump just doesn’t give a shit and your typical “Good Republican” who voted for him in the first place would applaud the opportunity to screw over tax loving libtards. And, given how broken and generally fucked up the SCOTUS nomination process is right now — it’s pretty much just doesn’t work the way it’s supposed to — even if both Trump and Pence magically vanished, you’d also have to have a Democratic Congress in place at this point to save Roe V. Wade.
It’s goose is cooked. It’s gone. Poof.
This begs the question: then what?
I have often seen Roe V. Wade as something of a firebreak for reproductive rights. It’s the thing that prevents the Mike Pences of the world from openly suggesting that any form of birth control — even for married people — goes against God’s Will and is of questionable legal validity. You can argue with me all you like, but once abortion becomes a political issue in state houses, some states that have completely succumb to the echo chamber of FOX News and alt-Right Twitter will take the next logical step and start to hack away at any form of birth control.
I am not really all that against abortion being a political foot ball in state houses because it forces local politicians to stake their careers on what they believe on the issue one way or another. Probably what will happen is some states like Virginia, which are pretty moderate, will find their state politics thrown into chaos as things get sorted out. Meanwhile, residents of states like New York or Mississippi effectively won’t see much change in their access to abortion at all. In both states, things have pretty much been sorted out one way or another already and not ruling by SCOTUS will make much difference.
So, in 20 years you’ll be able to smoke all the fucking pot you want at a gay wedding, just don’t knock anyone up at the reception if you’re in a Red State, cause you’re screwed.