by Shelt Garner
The current world order gradually formed in the year’s following Japan’s surrender in August 1945. The linchpin of the whole thing is the power, the might and involvement of the United States all over the world. For instance, the 28,000 American troops in South Korea have served as a trip wire and kept the peace between the DPRK and South Korea since 1953.
So. It definitely seems as though because, well, Donald Trump is nothing more than a deranged version of Being There’s Chauncey Gardner, the United States may soon, on a national security level, be the weakest its been since the end of the Civil War. In other words, it’s tough to fight two and half regional wars when the whole nation is too sick, dying or otherwise incapacitated to do anything. For the last four years, Trump has actively been hoping for a 9/11-level terrorist attack so he can start putting people like me in ICE camps. but lulz.
Anyway, there’s a reasonable chance that the next year will be seen as something of an “interregnum” between world orders. The old post-WW2 order may crash and burn and after a lot of wars and general destruction, a new order will arise at some point starting whenever we manage to get a vaccine. But a lot of people will die. A lot of people will suffer. A lot of people will be displaced.
It’s not too difficult to imagine it all starting with a number of regional wars breaking out at the same time while the United States is on its collective knees from COVID19. It would probably be the DPRK attacking South Korea and then Russia attacking Ukraine. Or something like that. Then Iran might have a new revolution. And the the Indian subcontinent may be turned into a post-nuclear hellscape.
And that doesn’t even begin to address the very real risk that ISIS might arise again from hell to subjugate a big swath of the Middle East. Then, once the United States is feeling back to its old self again, we would have to sort out that mess. Though, truth be told, I fear that the United States, Russia and China may have some sort of revolution over the course of the next year. The United States is effectively in the middle of a Cold Civil War right now and a bunch of old powerful people dying wouldn’t exactly help that situation.
But we’ll see. The key thing we have to do is admit that the crisis exists in the first place.