by Shelt Garner
As I’ve said before, I’m no expert on any of this, but I can make some general, educated observations about what’s going on in Belarus.
For a number of years now, Putin has had his eyes on Belarus. The difference between Belarus and Ukraine is the former is significantly smaller and doesn’t really have the centuries-long animosity towards Russia that the latter has. So, it wouldn’t be existential for Putin to swoop in and gobble Belarus up.
The recent protests in Belarus give Putin exactly the cover he would need to invade the small country. He would say he was “invited in” because of the instability and, well, that would be that. He would never leave.
There might be significant opposition to such a land grab by the people of Belarus, but nothing a big as what Putin would face if he tried to do something similar with Ukraine.
Since it is August, the shittiest month of the year, it would make a lot of sense for Putin to swoop in and eat Belarus. And, really, the issue for me is there haven’t been any reports of any major troop movements by the Russian military (at least as far as I know.) Putin continues to move tanks around the area, but nothing — not even a “drill” — that might indicate any large-scale invasion of Belarus is afoot.
That could change very quickly, however if things continue to deteriorate in Belarus and it appear as if democratic forces might actually win.
So, it would seem we have something of a waiting game ahead of us. It continues to be curious that Putin hasn’t done anything major with Ukraine give the complete and total pass the Trump Administration would give him if he did so.