Category: Cold Civil War

The Republican Cult Has An Existential Messaging Problem: Donald Trump

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

Today has been unusual in the annals of Trump Era Republican messaging. It’s all been tactical. I’ve not seen any kind of cogent, strategic response to what Trump is accused of doing.

A lot of quibbling about this or that thing to suggest that either “everybody does it” or “it’s a sinister Deep State plot,” but no cohesive vision as to why Trump should stay in office other than he’s Der Fuhrer and that’s that. With the news that the Trump regime is now abusing power in a spectacular and brazen way by looking to of all things Hillary Clinton’s emails and we know this is, in fact, the existential battle royale I’ve said it is.

The Caine Mutiny (1954) Directed by Edward Dmytryk Shown: Humphrey Bogart

Because of the gimme of the Mueller Investigation being not only long but a bust, Trump’s been given the time needed to figure out how to use — and abuse — the levers of power. If Trump’s messaging plan is literally use “but her emails” as a reason why he should in power, he and his corrupt cronies are in serious, serious, serious trouble.

In a sense, all of Trump’s insane attacks on the press have been a lead up to this moment. He believes he’s so discredited the press in the eyes of the MAGA base, if no one else, that they “won’t know who to believe” when push comes to shove. But as of this moment, things aren’t going according to the usual plan.

It’s becoming more and apparent which members of the power structure have a vested interest in absolute devotion to sucking the MAGA teet and who don’t. Some people are simply embarrassing themselves to such an extent that it doesn’t matter what happens next — they’re career as nothing more than a partisan hack is assured. If Trump survives, they become a spokesperson for a corrupt authoritarian regime, if he loses, then their career is destroyed. Brit Hume, specifically, is playing with fire. A very big career-ending bonfire, in fact.

At this point, Trump has leverage over the situation because he’s president and he has no shame. He knows the MAGA base doesn’t believe in liberal democracy, so lulz. The only problem for him is things are moving so fast and he got caught red handed in an easy to understand fashion. Trump is a moron, so he thinks as long as he keeps the base he can survive in the Senate. He thinks Republicans Senators would rather vote to acquit and in the hopes of surviving their primary then brace for the general than vote to convict and lose to a MAGA primary challenger. But if every other political polling group grows to hate Trump with a historical white hot rage, a few Republican Senators might realize that their hopes in the general might not be all that great. They have no shame, so they’re likely to stick with Trump. But as it obvious, Trump’s kind of deranged already as it is, so things are likely to get worse going forward.

This is on the face of it pretty basic modern American politics. Especially if you have to accept that Trump has shown a propensity to meddle in elections when he feels he can, so lulz. Trump is pretty much willing to destroy everything around him simply so he doesn’t get his fee-fees hurt. The Republican Cult will survive if Trump is convicted, but there’s a chance they will be seen by independents for what they are — a dangerous anti-democratic organization that should be voted against at all costs.

What’s more, we haven’t even gotten to the biggest problem facing Republicans going forward — Trump himself. They have no shame, crave power for power’s sake and they have absolute devotion to Trump. So should Trump’s cognitive decline accelerate as the pressure of impeachment gets to him, they have only themselves to blame for what happens. They are going to ride the Trump Train down to the bottom of the raven. What happens then is anyone’s guess.

The macro social, economic and political that produced Trump will linger for decades to come. They’re not going anywhere, even if we somehow miraculously get the Senate to convict him. If it’s not Trump, it’s Kris Kobach. If it’s not Kris Kobach, it’s Tom Cotton. If it’s not Tom Cotton, it’s Tucker Carlson. There’s a never ending supply of people with the exact same base and exact same goals as Trump. The only reason we MIGHT get spared this time is Trump is criminally incompetent at his job. He has always been a Right wing Twitter troll. That’s it. That’s all he is and that’s all he will ever be.

The Aristocrats!

What Was Bob Mueller’s Relationship To Bill Barr At The Time His Report Was Finished?

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

Now What.

It’s too soon to suggest anything unethical, but there are some datapoints about the end of the Mueller investigation that leave me uneasy.

Bob Mueller is a lifelong Republican.
He is very well respected. He’s an American hero.
Bill Bar is an old buddy.

Mueller abruptly wrapped up his investigation the Trump Administration soon after Barr formally settled into his job as the head of Justice. Given what has come out, Barr is at the center of a massive scandal. Barr does not seem to have the best interests of the nation or justice at heart.

Someone should look into this.

I Have Some Concerns

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

First, there are a lot of very stupid people on Twitter.

Anyway, while I believe everything I’m learning, there are some pretty strange “known unknowns” floating around.

What was the exact nature of Bob Mueller’s relationship to Bill Barr at the time he decided to wrap up his investigation?

Why is Bill Barr in Europe right now?

What is going on with H. R. McMaster?

How did all of this go on for so long and it’s only now coming out?

Something about this isn’t making any sense. A lot of people were complicit in some serious crimes for a long time or, I don’t know, this is all some sort of weird setup to do…what?

I don’t know. Just have a feeling we’re being trolled for some sort of nefarious purpose.

America’s Moment Of Truth In The Age Of Trump

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

One of my dad’s favorite movies is Mr. Roberts. The movie is about honor, leadership and the uses of power. As I reflect on this political clusterfuck we find ourselves in, I suggest you watch it if you’ve not done so already.

With that in mind, let’s look at the state of play in America politics on a macroscale with an eye to how history might judge us.

On a macro level, two issues stick out about what’s going on with TrumpUkraine.

Trump Is A Galactic Brain Self-Own Artist
None of this would have happened if Trump was, in fact, the political genius that all those access journalists who whisper in hushed tones that Trump is subtlety influencing middle aged white women ages 39-45 with his political messaging.

In fact, Trump is a deranged version of Being There’s Chauncey Gardner. That’s it, that’s what’s going on. Trump is demonstrably a moron. Not only is he a barely functioning man child, he’s a wilful one at that. Would a very stable genius barely wait 24 hours after Chris Wallace cooed that the “bad optics” of Mueller’s testimony had politically pardoned him to call up the president of Ukraine to do the very same thing again ? I mean, come on people.

As I’ve said before — the only reason why Trump’s considered some sort of political genius is it validates the career choices of some very powerful people who can’t accept that if history is just right any old doofus can become president. If you accept that Trump is not smart, is not educated and doesn’t know what he’s doing and he still managed to become president, that might evoke a little bit of existential angst for a New York Times reporter.

That Trump would be criminally incompetent in broad daylight for years and it not be taken seriously shows some serious problems with modern America. If it happened once, it could happen again. If support for Trump among the establishment goes the way of the issue of Iraqi WMD, we are in for a serious fucking political problem going forward.

I say the following in all seriousness: the United States may have dodged a bullet not because all the ranting of people on Twitter pointing out the obvious, but because Trump is such a complete and abject failure at everything but being a criminal that people finally noticed — because of Trump’s own actions! If Trump actually a political genius, Trump would lay low until after his second term and THEN strike. But he’s a willful idiot and he couldn’t control himself.

The Crisis Is, At Last, Existential

This brings us to the other macro issue. This is where I grow a little sad about the nation I love so much. Trump is in trouble because we were so busy pinning all our liberal fever dream hopes of Bob Mueller — a lifelong Republican and Bill Barr’s best bud — that we gave Trump time to finally figure out how to use the levers of power. So, we were content with tearing brown families apart. A smash and grab tax cult for plutocrats. Dozens of young, hack MAGA judges on the Federal bench for decades to come. The list goes on. Nothing, but nothing stuck because we gave 35% of the electorate a veto over our political process. We were so wrapped up in intercine battles within the the so-called Resistance, that nothing happened.

And here were are.

We face an existential crisis at last. The lines are clear. Are we a nation of laws or not ?What’s more important to us, “owning the moment” or respecting the lives of those who have fought and died to protect the Union. I mean, hell, guys, Trump has openly proposed eliminating birth right citizenship — something a few hundred thousand people died fighting over — and it got barely more than a lulz.

I don’t know what happens next. I do know it’s up to us.

No one is going to save us. We have to save ourselves. If it’s not too late.

A House Trump Death Rattle (Maybe)

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

I’m reluctant to say we’re in any type of late-stage Watergate situation just yet. Watergate’s conclusion came about because of a very specific set of circumstances that, because of a lack of precedent, we’ve come to believe is a forgone conclusion.

As I’ve written before, this is not 1974 and Trump is not Nixon. Republicans have no shame and crave power for power’s sake. As such, even though every other metric could be against Trump, Republicans could simply deny it all and stand firm. It’s hard for a liberal democracy to have a functioning Constitution when one of its major parties believes you can only impeach a president if they gain from it politically.

I guess what I’m saying is — the entire fate of the United States rests on Trump, well, being Trump. I would go so far as to say at this point it would actually be out of character for Trump not to do something so completely indefensible, so completely and demonstrably beyond the pale of any type of normal human behavior, that Republicans will find themselves at last defending the absolutely indefensible. If we’ve gotten this far into this situation and we’re not thinking that maybe the Deep State might be the good guys, well,oh boy.

In fact, I will go so far as to say we’re looking for the wrong signs. We’re looking for a major Republican to be Barry Goldwater. Nope. The best we can maybe hope for is a surreal version of The Pence Pivot. If Trump gets the whistleblower murdered, or tweets out a dick pic or tweets the n-word to Obama, Republican leaders will simply say they REALLY voted for Pence and why are you asking the question.

Even then, they won’t even hold an impeachment trial in the Senate.

Having said all that, I would like to tell AOC and a few other people floating around that there’s a chance that things are going to get so bad, so surreal that they are going to be given a masterclass on leadership in real time. I watched on 9/11 as then President Bush simply deflated. He ran away. The nation, for a moment, was leaderless. For a few crucial hours, Rudy was our president.

All I’m saying is, if things get as absolutely surreal as they look like they may, history is watching. They say one’s character comes out best in extreme situations. A few of our elected leaders may be given the opportunity to tell us who they really are, for better or worse.

But we’re not quite there yet. Maybe Bill Barr has proof TrumpUkraine is all an evil plot on the part of the Deep State. Again, at this point, Chris Wallace might suggest the “optics” on that one might not be so great for House Trump.

Maybe the Deep State is like the Second Foundation? Maybe they’re protecting the Constitution? We’ll see.

I Don’t Believe The Senate Is Going To Hold A Trump Impeachment Trial

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

Let’s be honest — we’ve reached point where Republicans are a cult. In their eyes, the only legitimate way to impeach a president is if they, themselves, gain politically by it. So, really, in their view, only a Democrat president can be impeached.

That’s it. A Republican, by definition, is immune to any Constitutional punishment for their actions.

So, you can pull any kind of reason why this or that thing might help Democrats make their case going forward — Mich McConnell is simply not going to hold the trial. It’s a win-win for him. Senate Republicans don’t have to defend a vote if it’s never held. And the move gives Trump free reign to help Republicans in the 2020 election cycle by doing whatever the fuck he wants to do. Bribe Electors. Dox them. Appoint Rudy as a Special Prosecutor to look into the Bidens. Directly ask the Russians to hack the election. Whatever. It will help Republicans keep the White House. And the base will be happy so they keep the Senate.

Republicans keep power, which is all they care about. They have no shame. None. Zero. They are completely detached from any form of political reality at this point.

Why this is extremely troubling is the Senate simply not holding a trial is sort of a Constitutional singularity in that it’s the point where politics and the Constitution meet. Even if SCOTUS tells the Senate it has to do it, McConnel could simply ignore them. That would be fun.

I honestly have no way to address this. If we revolt, Trump simply abolishes Blue State governments, purges Congress of Democrats and, well, MAGA?

History Doesn’t Repeat, But It Does Rhyme: Watergate & The Fall Of House Trump

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

Watergate was a national tragedy. “A long national nightmare,” as Jerry Ford called it. It was a tragedy in that it was the beginning of our modern political era. The Republican Party of 2019 is essentially made up of the the people who supported Nixon after the tapes were released. And so, TrumpUkraine is shaping up to be another one of those politically redefining moments.

A prime example of this is Kris Kobach’s recent ernest declaration that Senate Republicans should en masse commit jury nullification by pledging not to even hear the case against Trump. Such a statement is a savvy political move on Kobach’s part because it’s a win-win. If Trump survives, he’s a suck up. If Trump somehow manages to actually get convicted, he could very well be the core of the Republican Party going forward. Kobach has proven himself to be a lazy doofus when it comes to the hard work of politics, but, then, Donald Trump is a also a lazy doofus. Kobach really, really REALLY hates brown people coming into the United States. Given that the systemic problems that caused Trump in the first place are going to linger even if Trump is removed, he’s probably going to court the MAGA base pretty hard.

Rather, Call Your Agent.

One of the things that has served Americans well is the stability of our government. There’s a little problem with this, however, we don’t deal with government instability well. We don’t have any traditions to lean on. There’s no precedent as to what to do when we have an existential crisis like the one we’re in now.

I honestly don’t know what is going to happen to Trump at this point. The United States is not a functioning democracy right now. In fact, the only reason why the system is fighting back at all is Trump uses his galactic mind when it comes to self-owning. I’m reluctant to say we’re in that weird period of time before a president unexpectedly leaves office because it’s only happened once, in 1974. That’s the only historical guide we have as to how the system would work.

But, let’s sketch out some sort of scenario. Trump is never going to resign. In fact, he’s more likely to start a war than resign. Yet, suppose he is convicted. The first problem is getting him physically out of the White House. I’ve written about this scenario before some time ago and it’s not pretty. It would be a 9/11-level crisis for the United States. In fact, it would be if the OJ trial had a baby with 9/11. The reason is, it wouldn’t happen in hours, it could happen for weeks. I mean, Trump is demonstrably bonkers and has a twitter feed, what’s to stop him from telling the MAGA base to gather up their AR-15s and surround the White House? Then what?

At this point, we have to bring up House Trump. However Trump might finally leave office, he’s not going to go willingly. He’s going to demand a pound of political flesh. The most obvious expression of this is who would replace Pence as veep. Don Jr. is simply too much like his dad to fill the position, even though he’s got a serious clam to it. The base loves him and the Senate Republicans would approve him in a heartbeat. It just seems more politically likely, from a macro political standpoint that it would be Ivanka Trump who would play the role of Nelson Rockefeller. Jerry Ford was seen as a partisan hack when got the job of president. Really, at this point, that Republicans haven’t done The Pence Pivot is beginning to seem a bit surreal. Under all conventional political metrics you might use, Trump’s goose is cooked. Pence is a traditional politicians who is willing to at least play lip service to traditional democratic norms. That The Pence Pivot hasn’t begun to be formulated this far into the game is a very bad sign. That means Republicans are willing to ride the MAGA pony all the way to the bottom.

But anyway, back to Ivanka. Nikki Haley may think she has a claim to be Pence’s VP, but…no. It’s going to be a member of House Trump. Ivanka is so much like Nelson Rockefeller that it’s almost as if we’re going simply use the Watergate final days as the basis for a reboot. The only problem with using her to maintain House Trump’s connection to the White House is there’s a good chance not only would the MAGA base sour on her immediately, but everyone else would hate her for being complicit.

We’re still not really into this crisis yet. There aren’t enough datapoints to make any kind of serious scenario about Trump’s fate. But I will say tentatively things aren’t looking good for The Thousand Year Trump.

Shelton Bumgarner is a writer working on his first novel. It’s meant to be an allegory for the Trump Era. He may be reached at migukin (at) gmail (dot) com. He welcomes your comments as long as they’re not insane.

Republicans Are Careening Towards Only One Option In Their Defense Of Trump: Being A Cult

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

I’m going to work with what I know as of the time I write this. Things are growing so extenstially bad for the Republican Party, I’m growing nervous that Bill Barr is Q and he’s going to jump out at some point and say “babbabooy.”

That that is growing to become the only good scenario for Republicans is very bad news. But let’s go through what I can tell of existing Republican defenses of Trump.

This Is A Deep State Attack
Their argument is none of this is valid because it’s a partisan attack on the president orchestrated by a deep state operative with a grudge against the president. It’s based on “hearsay.” Ok, this argument is bad for Republicans because it doesn’t really do what they need it to do — own the moment. Much of the complaint itself is being proven correct from other sources. And even if you could prove any sort of partisan motive does that mitigate what Trump actually did? If a Democrats sees a Republican murder someone, we don’t prosecute the Republican because the Democrat might gain a political advantage?

The Bidens Are Corrupt
While House Trump is great at branding, their ability to use their usual mind fucks on us is beginning to unravel a little bit. What they want to do is recreate the conditions of 2016 with 2020. But things are moving fast with TrumpUkraine. We’re pretty much in a political war and that particular type of messaging only works in political peacetime. If every time you get asked about TrumpUkraine you pivot to a non-existent scandal involving the Bidens, you got a problem. The sheer astonishing scope of the TrumpUkraine criminality overshadows anything the Bidens might be accused of doing. Again, if you commit a bigger crime to look into someone else’s crime, you still committed a crime.

Fuck You, The Base Loves Trump
If we get down to this argument, then the next step is The Pence Pivot. This argument removes any pretence of working within the bounds of a liberal democracy with a social contract and civil society. This is when the wheels fly off and we go from a pitched battle to all out political civil war. In a sense, this is something that the average person doesn’t realize. Something about Obama’s second term drove the Republican Party completely insane. It has no shame and it craves power for power’s sake. As such, if they run out of arguments, they simply deny that there are any arguments that they will listen to. The only reason why this might not work is if things have gotten this bad, Trump will be at the point in his cognitive decline where he’s tweeting out dick picks and tweeting out the n-word to Obama.

After that, it’s The Pence Pivot. They stop talking about Trump altogether and simply say they really voted for Pence. Though, in a sense, Trump will have lost the mandate of heaven even with Republicans, they will still support Trump staying in office. They just will talk about Pence whenever he comes up.

Republicans Face Two Impeachment Pyrrhic Victories

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

A pyrrhic victory is a victory that costs you so much that it’s not really all that much of a victory in the long term. Republicans because they have no shame and crave power for power’s sake are careening towards two major pyrrhic victories. What is so astonishing about the pyrrhic victories is they’re not even tactical in nature. If they occurred they would likely be existential pyrrhic victories.

The first one of these is political.

Democrats, feelling they have Trump red handed, rush through the impeachment inquiry. Support for impeachment runs high, but access journalists wring their hands that it’s going too fast. They say Democrats should hold weeks of televised hearings to control the narrative. Sen. Majority Leader Mitch McConnell takes a read of the nation and strikes. The day the House votes for impeachment, he says two things: one, House Democrats haven’t proven anything near an impeachable offense. Two, for the sake of the nation he believes that the “people should decide” in Nov. 2020 because were within a year of the election.

Such brazen, self-serving interpretations of the Constitution have worked before with Supreme Court justices. So, McConnell has every reason to believe he can pull it off again. He lets Republican Senators off the hook, there’s not trial and Trump can go back to meddling in the 2020 election. Since he’s made it clear that Trump has North Korean-levels of absolute devotion to Trump the very idea of ever holding him accountable is negated. Trump grows so emboldened that he bribes individal Electors in broad daylight should Russia’s efforts to directly hack the election prove unsuccessful.

There’s a problem with this seemingly airtight solution for McConnell. While he doesn’t care what his place in the history books will be — lulz! — there’s a real chance such behavior would be a thunderclap in American political history. It’s such a simple thing to explain to the average person — even if Democrats aren’t in control of the narrative — that there’s no telling what the long-term consequences to this might be. If McConnell finally is explicit that he is so craven, so absolute in his lack of shame and desire for power for power’s sake that he wouldn’t even let Senators hear the case against Trump that’s a massive crime against the Constitution and the people of the United States.

I won’t go so far as to say there might be civil unrest — Trump would just use it as excuse to dissolve Blue State governments, anyway– but the political consequences to the Republican Party might be far, far more damaging than they could possibly imagine.

The second pyrrhic victory is criminal.

Trump is notorious for “joking” about how people should be murdered for opposing him. Now, Trump’s already cueing this up to happen. It’s extremely brazen and reckless for him to even bring a hint up this concept up. I say this especially given how deranged most of MAGA is. Would it really help the MAGA cause to murder the whistleblower? Does that make any sense? While if it happened, Republicans would say Trump was “joking” and just “free styling” his frustration with the situation, and he, himself, did not commit the crime.

If things have gotten so bad in American politics that enough people this that Trump isn’t held accountable, I don’t know if I want to live in this country anymore. Again, it’s pretty likely that Trump creating an environment where crazy people want to kill his political opponents might not be a good political situation for Republicans going forward.

Anyway. Stay tuned.

Honest Question: Why Is Bill Barr Still A Free Man?

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

What the fuck is going on with Attorney General Bill Barr? He’s in the middle of a criminal conspiracy disguised as a the Executive Branch and…nothing. No one seems to be calling for his resignation. It’s like since Rudy is the lightning rod, Barr is free to go about his business being the demonstrably deeply criminal leader of the Justice Department.

There’s one specific issue I would like to be looked in — what was the exact sequence of events that led Bob Mueller to end his investigation into the firing of James Comey? Something about that particular event doesn’t smell right. One thing about Mueller is he became an avatar for a lot of liberal rag against the Trump Administration. We imbued him with a lot of qualies that he may — or may not — actually possess. He’s a lifelong Republican and Bill Barr’s friend.

Given the sheer depth of criminal behavior that Barr has presided over at the Justice Department, that makes me wonder that maybe he might have suggested Mueller wrap things up in time for Trump to start is 2020 re-election campaign. It’s pretty conspicuous how Mueller fell on his sword for Trump in any number of different ways. A lot of avenues of investigation simply were not looked into.

People who seemed bound to get indicted never were. I mean, Don Jr. is just as conspicuous in his conspicuous need to commit crimes as his father. I have no idea what happened, but it seems like now that it’s clear that Trump’s running the Executive Branch like a mafia don that maybe someone should look into that.

Barr has already done enough to warrant him being in jail for contempt of Congress. If I was going to use the House’s inherent contempt powers, Barr is the guy I would use it on. That guy needs to suffer politically somehow. He needs to experience some sort of consequences for his behavior.