I love scenarios. So, let’s game how out Radical Moderates might topple Tyrant Trump when it becomes clear that he’s going full tyrant. This is just for fun. I mean no harm. And, besides, no one takes me seriously or listens to me, anyway. Lulz!
General Strike If New Lincolnites and Radical Moderates of all political stripes could organize some sort of General Strike that would be the first indication that Tyrant Trump was in trouble. I would appeal to women. I would make it clear to women that Tyrant Trump wanted to ban abortion — and contraception of any sort — and if they just didn’t show up to work then maybe malignant ding-dong Tyrant Trump might sit up and taken notice. Take Trump Tower I hate violence, so this is just me spit-balling. But if you could organize the “taking of Trump Tower” that would be way to fucking rattle Tyrant Trump’s cage. Burn the shithole to the ground. Hopefully without anyone getting hurt. Seize New York City If you could somehow have a general uprising in New York City to the point that you had something along the lines of a “Free City” that, too, would be a way to hobble Tyrant Trump’s attempts to size control. Again, I don’t want anyone to get hurt! This is just a daydream! Co-opt The U.S. Military Our best best to topple ding-dong Tyrant Trump is to co-opt the U.S. Military. Get all the talking heads on TV to beg the U.S. Military to ignore Tyrant Trump’s orders. Given that the U.S. Military on an institutional basis just doesn’t want to get involved….you invoke your secret weapon. Invoke The 14th Amendment It is clear that Trump can’t even *be* president because of his involvement in the January 6th Insurrection. So, while you’re crippling the country with a Women’s Strike, you appeal to the U.S. Military by saying, “You’re still acting legally by toppling Trump because he can’t even be POTUS because of the 14th Amendment.” Demand A Constitutional Convention Another goal of the General Strike (Women’s Strike) would be a Constitutional Convention. And it would be organized in a way not to give MAGA the ability to fuck things up. (Having the U.S. Military on your side is pretty cool.)
It is a little known fact that the right of revolution is enshrined in the U.S. Constitution. I’m a man of peace and of ideas. I hate violence of any sort. And yet these are times that try men’s souls, as Thomas Paine would tell us. It is clear that concentrations camps will be to Trump’s vengeful second term what “the wall” was to his first.
This is of personal interest to me because the same infrastructure used to put “millions” of undocumented people in concentration camps could be used against “vermin” like…me. The thing that gives me a growing sense of frustration is how oblivious the usual suspect nattering nabobs of negativism are to the fact that maybe there are *no* institutions that will step up to save us.
We will have to save ourselves.
The problem we face is there is a certain political momentum to the MAGA Nazi movement that is difficult to defeat using traditional methods. It’s like we’ve all just collectively given up, much like the Roman Empire did in its last few decades. Or, to put a more modern spin on things — freedom loving people are going to appease themselves into a corner.
“What is to be done,” was the question Lenin asked in the years leading up to the Russian Revolution. And I ask that question now, “What is to be done?” I just don’t have a ready answer for you because it seems — as of late 2023 — that it is a historical inevitability that Trump will win a second term and we’re just going to have to sort things out after that.
My fear is that Trump will attempt to use the legal magic pixie dust of the Insurrection Act to knock heads and the U.S. Military will balk at playing the part of some sort of later day SA. There is some sort of “Glorious Revolution” that deposes malignant ding-dong Trump, which, in turn provokes a Secession Crisis as Red States — who want a MAGA Nazi state — get upset and demand a National Divorce.
Before you know it, not only are WMD being used by both sides on U.S. soil, but fucking WW3 has broken out and about 1 billion people die as a number of nuclear-tipped regional conflicts turn hot. If we’re lucky, after a lot of tragic, needless death and destruction “the Good Guys” — people who believe in liberal democracy — win and we have some sort of Second Reconstruction in the context of a complete realignment of the global order — a New World Order, if you will.
But all of that is extremely speculative.
Remember, major historical events are value free while you’re living through them. There is no narrative. I mean, in 1942, your average American had no idea how WW2 was going to end. And, really, all things considered, WW2 ended in a very clean cut way — for the most part — such that The Good Guys won and the Bad Guys lost.
So, predicting what will happen starting in late 2024, early 2025 is impossible. We could very well just punt our problems down the road another four years and all my “hysterical doom shit” will be just that — hysterical doom shit. But I do think we need to think seriously about what the fuck we’re going to do when Trump makes good on his pledge to mass deport people.
And that doesn’t even begin to address what we’re going to do if Trump goes full tyrant and attempts to establish an actual military dictatorship. AND, Trump is fucking old, so it might not even be him who ultimately transitions us from an anocracy into a full Russian-style autocracy.
I suspect the lesson that MAGA Nazis will learn from their rebuke last night at the polls when it comes to abortion rights will not be to moderate to win elections, but to hasten the end of American democracy. In other words, they are so consumed with their moral objection to women having medical agency, that they will simply bide their time until they can abolish the Senate filibuster and pass a national fetal personhood bill.
And that’s probably the the best case scenario, all things considered. The worst case scenario would be MAGA Nazis involved in Project 2025 figure out some way to use extralegal methods to outlaw abortion, even if its still legal. But for that to happen, they the ranks of The Patriot Front would have to swell significantly.
I continue to think about how there is a gaping hole in the MAGA Nazi Project 2025 plan. They really think that brazenly corruption of both the law and the administration of the executive will be enough to browbeat the 60% of the American Population that still believes in the Second Republic.
Project 2025 people seem to have a childlike belief that whatever reaction they get from the populace from their tyranny they can fix using the Insurrection Act. Those hateful ding-dongs don’t have what the Nazis had in 1933: the SA. If anything gives me hope that maybe we can fight back against the MAGA Nazis is that lack of a big MAGA Nazi paramilitary arm.
I suppose that particular flaw in Project 2025 could be fixed — they still have a year, after all. And I suppose their may be some secret element of Project 2025 involving making a direct link between MAGA Nazi tyranny and the use of The Patriot Front to knock heads.
But even if they were going to do that in early 2025, there would be some lag time between when people began to riot in the streets of Blue States, the U.S. Military balking at crushing them and the establishment of a direct link between Tyrant Trump’s regime and The Patriot Front.
Here is a two stage scenario whereby America….uhhhh….has a kind of bumpy historical moment?
Stage 1 Trump wins in November 2024 and it becomes clear he’s going to be a tyrant. So exercising their Constitutionally protected right to Revolution, Blue States — and Blues across the country — work actively to topple “Magadonia.” There’s a functioning General Strike. Blue States actively work to overthrow Trump’s tyrannical reign. Because of how conflicted things are, the U.S. Military — except, maybe, Mike Flynn’s brother who controls the Pacific Command — stays out of all of this. It all happens pretty quickly and a Constitutional Convention is called with the specific purpose of renewing our democracy. The reforms implemented are fair and equitable.
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Stage 2 The PROBLEM is, that MAGA cocksuckers will freak out and because they want to fuck their guns, they do a counter-revolution just as we all think everything is figured out — we have a secession crisis. Then, well, things get totally out of control and before you know it, America looks like Afghanistan.
Good job, everyone!
Anyway. I can’t predict the future. But I do think we should keep an eye on Blues just as much as Reds. I do think — and hope — that we’ll just peacefully slip into a MAGA themed autocracy without any violence. Too many wealthy, smug liberals won’t stand their ground to be the leadership of a Blue Revolution. So, lulz.
The thing about the first civil war was how it radicalized President Lincoln, who was, for the most part, pretty moderate. It is difficult for the average modern person to understand how radical abolition was when Lincoln embraced it as a war aim. If you want some sense of the lead up to the Emancipation Proclamation, the late William Safire wrote a huge tome of a historical novel called “Freedom” which is about that very thing.
Anyway, since Americans are the vast majority of the time extremely laid back on a macro political level — we’re not French, after all — only very rarely do you see moderates pick up the banner of radicalism. The most obvious time this happened was the Civil War Era, but, to a far lesser extent “radical moderates” also popped up around the Great Depression as well.
In fact, when it came to the First Civil War, it was these radical moderates who ultimately saved the Union. Only by embracing the radical war aim of freeing the slaves could the Union be saved.
And, now, the United States may be in a modern antebellum period. I only say “may” because a Second American Civil War is one of three options before us — autocracy, civil war or some sort of military junta that might lead to a Constitutional Convention.
The prime candidates to become Radical Moderates are all of the NeverTrumpers, a smattering of the Usual Suspect talking heads on CNN and MSNBC and maybe a few Hollywood celebrities with political ambitions. The key thing to remember is, however, once you slice the seal on a civil war, there’s no going back. Everything — and I mean everything — would be thrown up in the air. Strange alliances would be made. New heroes would arise. Historical figures that you could never imagine might spring into the public imagination.
But there’s one thing I have to make absolutely clear — no matter how much people like Jesse “Welcome To The New Right!” Kelly want to glorify the prospect of a civil war, it would suck. It would suck so bad that everyone involved, no matter who won, would live to regret it ever happened for the rest of their lives.
I say this for a number of pretty obvious reasons.
One, everything would grow existential. When things grow existential, it’s not where you went to school, or your race, or gender or if you’re a hipster in a coffee shop or a transgender person upset over the latest J.K Rowling attack. What would matter is how, you, as a person, could help the war effort. Starvation would be everywhere. Death. Despair. Tragedy. Hate. All these things would become a basic part of everyday life.
I believe this because if things got so bad that there was an actual Second American Civil War, WMD would be seized and used (a whole lot!) The lights would go out. Internet may be blocked or not available. You wouldn’t know anything because your access to any form of mass communication might be controlled or non-existent.
What’s once the United States buckled, the rest of the world would not be far behind. We’re talking WW3. Billions could die if not from a number of limited nuclear exchanges, then from the starvation that would result from the following Nuclear Winter.
All because Tucker Carlson convinced Baby Boomers that the Worst Thing That Could Happen To Them Is To Be “Canceled.”
Because of all of this, the aforementioned Radical Moderates would rise to the surface and probably be in control of the Blue States.
I find myself wondering how long a Second American Civil War might last. A lot would depend on the specifics of what caused it and the leadership the two sides had when it began. Or, even more importantly — what would be the two sides war aims?
The MAGA New Right would have some very clear war aims at the beginning — establish a White Christian Autocratic Ethno State — while Blues would probably have to gradually come up with them. And, as I have repeatedly said, a lot would depend on what California did. If it left the Union altogether, the Reds probably would win and consolidate power in the rump USA.
If, however, California stayed united with other Blue States, then we’re going to the show. California would be the Union’s Arsenal Of Democracy.
But, let me be clear –while I like to think the high-risk, high-reward of a Second American Civil War would lead ultimately to a stronger, more perfect Union just like the First Civil War, it might just suck. The United States could simply devolve into a number of rump states like the old Soviet Union.
It could be that after a number of years of chaos, that you would have something that looked like this: California, Texas and Florida would be their own nation-states. NYC might be a “free state.” Some sort of American Taliban might control huge swaths of the South.
Meanwhile, you would have a number of regional alliances that would exist with the goal of giving people some sense of security.
But all of that is extremely speculative. It could be that, in the end, we simply slip peacefully into autocracy and that’s that. Wealthy liberals leave the country for, I dunno, Perth and the cities of Europe and the remaining Americans slowly, but inevitably, circle the drain to “shit hole country” status.
Good luck. You — and the Radical Moderates — will need it.
The #NeverTrump people are what I like to call “radical moderates.” You can quibble about how “moderate” they really are relative to the Left-Right divide before Trump, but #NeverTrump goals are pretty moderate in my opinion. They want simply to protect our liberal democracy at any costs.
Abraham Lincoln, Radical Moderate
In a sense, they really do harken back to Lincoln. Father Abraham was the quintessential radical moderate. At his heart, he was pretty moderate, but in the severe crisis of the Civil War he made a very radical choice out of desperation: free the slaves so as to make the war one of liberation and Union, not just Union.
As such, because the United States is hurdling towards an existential choice of autocracy, military junta or civil war, it’s at least possible that for a moment in time everyone will be #NeverTrump — there will be a United Front with the leaders of the #NeverTrump at its head.
Should it happen, it will be astonishing on a political level because such a unification of political views has only happened one or twice in our history. I would say the Civil War and WW2 are the last times it happened. For AOC to join forces with someone as conservative as, say, Rick Wilson, under “radical moderate” rubric we would have to be suffering a very, very severe political crisis.
Now, as an aside, let me address something I’ve mentioned before – are #NeverTrumpers the modern equivalent of “War Democrats?” At the moment, they are. But the moment we’re facing the type of severe political crisis I fear we’re hurdling towards occurs, they will be something totally different — the vanguard of the the radical moderates.
In other words, the leadership of the people who will have the opportunity to finally destroy the scourge of the fascist MAGA New Right will come from the group of conservatives who are now #NeverTrumpers. The center-Left simply does not have that many leaders to use for such a cause. AOC is pretty good, but she’s still too young and untested.
I can think of half a dozen #NeverTrumpers who could provide crucial leadership for the — glup — war effort, should things get that bad.
Or, put another way, if the crisis grows as severe as I fear it will, instead of the current political situation where you have a huge center-Left then the #NeverTrumpers, you would have a United Front with the #NeverTrumpers providing the leadership.
But all of this is extremely speculative. I’m always wrong, at least to date. I’m just kind of sketching out possibilities given what usually happens in revolutions and civil wars
History doesn’t repeat, but it does rhyme. I’m not saying that Trump being jeered will be anywhere near as historically significant as the Disco Sucks riot of 1979, but…it makes for great TV. It’s memorable and easy to understand. It may fade very quickly, or it may linger in the popular imagination.
A real problem with Twitter is you have a very short space to articulate what can be very complex issues. I consider myself a journalist — I was at least trained to be one — and I love the trade and the people who make it up. But we’re in a crisis — the worst political crisis since late 1860 — and the manner in which the Press is covering it is, frankly, embarrassing.
Today I got into a minor Twitter-spat with Karen Tumulty of The Washington Post. She put me on blast to poo-poo my suggestion that them doing yet ANOTHER story about Hunter Biden’s vaguely unethical business dealings from half a decade ago might not be the best use of the paper’s resources right now.
I’m so jaded at this point that her putting me on blast to “put me in my place” evokes nothing more than a lulz from me. Ok, you got me. You have a huge Twitter following and I’m just a rando you feel you can use as a rhetorical foil. The point I was trying to make, however, is valid. Rather than aiding and abetting the destruction of the Republic in the name of “objectivity,” might I suggest she — and the rest of the press — remember Mstislav Rostropovich.
There’s an iconic picture , which, for the life of me I can’t find, of him holding a Kalashnikov during the segue of the Russian White House about 20 years ago. Rostropovich wasn’t a solider — he was a well known orchestra conductor — but in a moment of crisis he took up a weapon and decided to attempt to defend liberty in the nation he loved.
So, I would suggest to Ms. Tumulty she think of Rostropovich when she crows about how I should subscribe to the paper to get the “full context” of their reporting. Trump wants to turn the United States into an autocratic “managed democracy” hell bent on putting Ms. Tumulty herself into jail for during her job.
If that isn’t enough to give her pause before crowing about discovering “important” information about Hunter Biden’s unethical behavior five years ago, I don’t know what will.
After letting a number of precious days slip past them, the Republican Party now has something akin to an overarching messaging strategy. Remember, the whole thing is based on an arbitrary Big Lie. It’s not as though facts are important or that anything they’re doing is thought up in good faith. They have one goal and one goal only — keep Trump in power.
With that it in mind, it seems as though Republicans have finally established their bullshit conditions for them to alledgly take impeachment seriously.
Quid Pro Quo Has To Be Established. This is complete bullshit because Trump and his cronies keep giving up the game on this one. But this is a key talking point right now. Even though we have all we need to prove an impeachable offense in rough transcript — quid pro quo or not — Republicans have set an impossible standard that they can then hammer home whenever asked. They’re messaging to the base that only if Trump actually uses the actual words quid pro quo does the House investigation into this situation come close to not being a “witch hunt.” This is total bullshit on their part because they honestly don’t give a shit about anything but keeping power and grifting. So Trump himself could do exactly this one thing they absolutely demand and they would simply pivot to the next talking point. They just don’t care. They don’t care about liberal democracy anymore. Fuck you, see if you can convict Trump in the Senate is their real agenda.
After this main talking point, they seem to have a hodge-podge of other, less important ones they reference as needed to “own the moment.” They rant about Schiff “lying.” They think it’s all a Deep State con job – entrapment. Everything they say is complete bullshit because we have Trump dead to rights and now it’s simply a matter of waging a pitched political war for the next few weeks. Republicans will destroy the Constitution, the Republic and whenever the fuck else they have to do keep Trump in power, even if he finally goes completely fucking insane.
As I’ve said before, I always though Trump would lose his mind in private and then a secret Regency would be set up. Now I realize Trump could very well snap and we’ll have a madman as president until the wheels of government finally grind towards some sort of endgame. Trump is obviously bonkers now, but he’s a least reasonably cogent and reasonably in control of his absolute worst instincts.
It definitely seems that Republicans are also doing their best to egg the base on into some sort of violence. They really, really, REALLY want MAGA people all over the country to start killing members of the media or Democratic member of Congress. They, of course, will say these people are mentally ill and it’s not their fault. But they will also use the death and destruction as a cover for telling us we have to end impeachment and “let the people decide” in 2020. This is fucking bullshit not only because Trump will simply bribe Electors or directly conspire with the Russians, or the Saudis or the fucking North Koreans to hack into the voting booth, but there’s a good chance that even if Trump loses fair and square, that they want violence then, too, so they can keep power.
The sooner we realize that the entire Republican Party is now a criminal fascist organization, the sooner we can be honest with ourselves about the stakes we face and what really is actually likely to happen.
And, really, the entire fate of the United States as we know it now rests on Trump losing his mind in some manner that is so completely fucking spectator that somehow 20 Republican Senators miraculously decide maybe Pence wouldn’t be such a bad president after all. That’s it. That’s all the hope I got right now.
The Republicans hate democracy so much that they will fight dirty, they will lie, they will cheat, they will burn everything to the ground simply to keep power. They are only interested in democracy as a transactional event. They want to abuse it to regain power if they lose it.
Let me be clear — I’m no big fan of Nancy Pelosi. Even for me, she’s a bit too “woke” for modern American retail politics. But she is a leader and she does have what it takes to be a caretaker president simply so we can have a free-and-fair election in 2020.
If this was a normal Watergate-level scandal, then I would be content with President Pence. He’s conservative as hell, but for the sake of the country, simply pushing Trump out politically would be enough to right the ship of state at last. But, given that this is the biggest existential threat to the Republic since states started leaving the Union after Lincoln’s election, President Pence won’t cut it.
He’s too wrapped up in the criminal fascist conspiracy that is the current Trump Administration. Pence needs the old heave-ho too. I have no idea how this could possibly happen given that Pence has no shame, but sometimes it’s good to dream big politically. We need to set our sights on getting Pelosi into the White House as soon as possible using the framework that exists within the Constitution. In fact, I only even suggest this because it’s the only acceptable outcome if you take this clusterfuck seriously.
It’s too easy to imagine that Pence becomes president and lulz, Barr and Pompeo remain in office and we simply slide into a theocracy. I don’t know about you, but I’m one of those “secularist” Barr and Pompeo bemoan and I don’t particularly feel like finding myself in a weaponized ICE camp in some sort of surreal mixture of The Plot Against America and The Handmaid’s Tale. Pence’s vision of America is based on hypocrisy and the enslavement of women. If that’s not enough to actively work to politically shank him, I don’t know what is.
But, to be honest, the only way we get a President Pelosi is a Radical Resistance. We throw down the gauntlet. Pelosi takes up the moral mantle of the show president by pounding away at the entire corrupt, fascist Trump Administration on a daily basis. We’re in enough of a crisis that she needs to scare the shit out of people. Use inherent contempt to arrest Rudy. Lobby Obama to speak out. Maybe even get Jon Stewart to go on an impassioned rant on The Late Show.
Or, put another way, Pelosi needs to set the national agenda everyday. Trump and Pence are like characters from the movie Scream. They are attempting to tag-team the destruction of our Republic into some surreal dystopia.
I have my doubts, however, that Pelosi is up to it. She’s too conservative on a Constitutional level. Too reluctant to be political aggressive in any way beyond her status as a Constitutional officer. We’ll see, I guess. Stranger things have happened. Maybe she’ll at last rise to the occasion in the manner the nation needs her to.
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