I’m Impressed But Not THAT Impressed With The New Apple Vision Pro

by Shelt Garner

I’m tentatively willing to suggest that the Apple Vision Pro may be A Big Deal. If you fused XR technology with AI technology — that’s a big fucking deal. And, yet, I don’t know. The jury seems still out to how big a deal it will all be.

One thing we need to understand is the context of all of this going forward — late 2024, early 2025 definitely seems to be a Perfect Storm, a convergence of sorts of political and technological tipping points. It could be that we’re going to fate not just a Fourth Turning but a Petite Singularity around that time.

Or, put another way, things are moving really, really fast on a number of different fronts.

If we dive into a severe recession by late 2024, early 2025 because of a Petite Singularity just we’re facing the existential choice of autocracy or civil war. Oh boy. That would really suck.

And, yet, I’m always wrong, so, lulz.

It could be that I’m over thinking things. But I do think that the years 2025 – 2029 will be years of dramatic transition. If we’re lucky, we transition into some sort of autocratic techno-state. If we’re NOT lucky, then, well, lulz, we will have some sort of civil war / revolution during those years and we’ll spend the 2030s figuring out what the post-WW3 New World Order will be like.


But that’s just more of my “hysterical doom shit.”

I think we’ll probably just muddle through. We (almost) always do.

The Looming Prospect of An American Fourth Reich — The MAGA Right Has Gone Full Fascist

by Shelt Garner

Just in the last few days, the MAGA chattering class on Twitter has decided to go all-in on fascism. They’re openly talking about the need for a Right wing dictator along the lines of Franco, of all people.

And, given that it definitely seems as though the United States is about to default for the first time ever, it seems as though the conditions for the US to transition into a fascist state are just about there. Trump will be get re-elected — even if he’s under indictment for violating the Espionage Act — he will demand MAGA Enabling Acts be stapled to the Constitution via a new Constitutional Convention and, there you go — The Fourth Reich.

All my hysterical doom shit — the shit that got me blocked by Twitter liberal darling Mueller, She Wrote — will come true. And we’ll be faced with the existential choice of autocracy or civil war / revolution.

It definitely seems as though that’s our future. Or, put another way, the moment the US defaults for the first time, all bets are off. The French Empire defaulted in the years leading up to the French Revolution, so, lulz? Either we implode into a white Christian ethnostate or we explode into civil war / revolution.

If it happens, it’s probably going to be at some point in late 2024, early 2025.

Would The Indictment Of Trump For Espionage Be A ‘Disruptive Event?’

by Shelt Garner

Let me be clear — I think much like the late Roman Empire, America has given itself over to the macro forces of history. We’ve just given up and there just doesn’t seem to be any way to avoid our inevitable transition into an illiberal democracy.

In fact, between now and spring 2025, our choice will be rather stark — autocracy or civil war.

So, I don’t really give much credence to the idea that anything — ANYTHING — can stop Trump from being 2024 Republican nominee and probably the next POTUS. In short, we’re fucking doomed. And, yet, for some reason, 50 Senators have, according to CBS News, been given satellite phones because of the fear of “a disruptive event.”

Just like how the paranoid Right spent 30 years mulling what James Baker was going to say in the “New World Order” speech that he never gave, it’s possible that the same people are going to spend the next 20 years worried about a “disruptive event” that never comes.

But it does seem that Trump might — MIGHT — be on the cusp of being indicted for a number of Big Boy Crimes, amongst them being espionage. I just don’t see that as rising to the status of a “disruptive event,” however, because everything is so baked into the cake with Trump that even if he, I don’t know, ate someone live on TV, he would still be 60,000 voters in five swing states away from being president.

That’s how much America has collectively given the fuck up.

It definitely will be interesting to see Trump running for POTUS between now and Election Day 2024 having been indicted for espionage of all things. Jesus Christ.

But, here we are.

What is ‘Woke?’

by Shelt Garner

Whenever someone tries to seriously discuss the concept of “being woke” one has to make it clear that it’s a concept largely defined by people who hate it. And, they themselves, really have no idea what it means. The definition of “woke” is, thus, one of just “vibes.”

In fact, the self-appointed definers of “woke” — mostly MAGA conservatives — want there to be no clear definition so everything and nothing can be “woke” as is necessary to “own” the libs. Much like how MAGA Republicans refuse to tell us when, in fact, America was “great,” so, too, do these self-same Republicans refuse to give us any clear definition of what “to be woke” is.

As such, we’re left rummaging through the often very dumb, very vacuous arguments made by MAGA Republicans when they want to juice the base to vote. So, with that in mind, let’s address the issue at had, “What is woke?”

Terror By Vibe
It seems clear to me that the entire notion of “wokness” says more about MAGA Republican conservatives than it does the word itself. Much of the hysterical rhetoric about “wokeness” on the part of Republicans is a direct, kneejerk reaction to the combination of the browning of America and the growing economic power of women.

What’s more, if you scramble all of this in the blinder of the greater Fox News and conservative podcast echo chamber, you end up in a situation where people who should know better will tell you with a straight face that “libs” “love” abortions to the point that they’re practicing infanticide. In fact, in my discussion with my conservative relatives — who I love dearly — it definitely seems as though a lot of the outrage over “wokeness” is more anger over how modern society talks about in a very public manner things they feel should be kept private and secret.

So, these people who are so upset about abortion or the gay movement probably don’t mind that either one exists, but they ARE upset at what they perceive is the very public woke agenda on these topics. This is all an extension of how conservative Republicans want to establish an autocratic white Christian ethnostate — sometimes without even realizing that that is, in fact, what they want.

In short, they find the “woke” movement…annoying.

They just know, in general, they hate people who are “woke” — even though they really don’t know what “being woke” means. They just do a vibe check on the issues important to “woke” people and get upset that anyone would think such a thing.

In short, conservative (MAGA) Republicans find woke people really, really annoying for any number of reasons. They neither understand them nor, in some cases, even want to be in the same Union with them.

‘Go Woke, Go Broke’

One thing that any discussion of “being woke” has to mention is there is, in fact, a small but vocal portion of the liberal-progressive movement that has such a narrow minded, strict orthodox about certain issues that they drive traditional conservatives into the arms of fascists.

Take, for instance, the transgender movement.

There is a lot of talk about “protecting trans kids” within “woke” liberal-progressive circles which causes MAGA Republicans to, in turn, freak out at the idea that there are even “trans kids” to be “protected” in the first place. From what I can gather, the idea of “trans kids” is extremely muddled and misleading.

While, yes, growing number of children under 18 are identifying as “trans” the number of children actually transitioning is near zero, if not, in fact, zero. But because woke people run around screaming about how need to “protect trans kids,” MAGA bigots assume such “gender affirming care” must be happen all the time, when, in fact, it’s not.

But it suits the purposes of the all those MAGA conservative podcasts with time to fill and advertisements to sell, so they talk and talk and talk and talk about something that really doesn’t even exist — children under 18 medically changing their gender.

Those libs aren’t going to own themselves, you know.

There is a lot — A LOT — of pretty basic moralism involved in all of this, as well. It’s all vibes, in other words. As Blues grow more secular and brown, Reds grow more Christian and white (and old.) This is where the Gay Scare we’re currently experiencing is coming from. There are MAGA Republicans who feel, by definition being a member of the LGBQ+ community is a “sin” and, as such, the way a long of Gen Z seem to see being gay as aspirational fills them with horror. These MAGA Republicans just want people to be filled with the Holy Spirit and stop messing around with people of the same sex.

And, this is a very important element to all of this — the reason why Republicans hate democracy is they KNOW that they’re losing a demographic battle and, as such, they would rather turn America into an autocratic white Christian ethnostate than do some soul searching and change their policies so they can win elections fair and square.

This is a point too often missed by smug Twitter liberals who seem to feel just being a keyboard warrior online is somehow going to change anything.

There Is No Endgame
I’m not going to give you an pat solutions to the battle over being “woke.” There are none. All I got is the whole battle over “being woke” is a luxury of living in a peaceful, wealthy liberal democracy. When that is no longer the case — when things grow more….existential…then, lulz, the last thing we’re going to have time or energy for is fighting over the proper use of someone’s “pronouns.”

We Have To Take The Prospect of Default — And Biden’s Impeachment For Using The 14th Amendment — Seriously

by Shelt Garner

I just don’t think people are really taking how bumpy the next 18 months could be seriously. It’s very possible that in quick succession, the US will default, Biden will be impeached for trying to solve the problem using the 14th Amendment AND Hollywood will burn to the ground after it grinds to a halt because three strikes that prompt the widespread use of AI.

And that doesn’t even begin to address the prospect of the so-called “Fourth Turning” in late 2024, early 2025.

But, as I often say, I’m always, always wrong.

And, yet, I do think that the closer we get to late 2024, early 2025, the more “bumpy” things are going to become. The 2024 election cycle is shaping up to be a massive fucking clusterfuck. The only way we don’t either turn into an autocracy or have a revolution / civil war is if not only does A Democrat win the presidency, but Trump doesn’t do a Stop The Steal Redux.

In other words, the world’s first hyperpower is primed and ready to implode into chaos in such a spectacular manner that it will be said in the breath as the French Revolution and the Russian Revolution.

Man, do I wish I was joking or just spreading “hysterical doom shit.” But I’m not. I really think there is a greater-than-zero chance that the United States is going to have a revolution / civil war starting in late 2024, early 2025. At this point, it’s just an issue of if it’s Reds (civil war) or Blues (revolution) who light the match.

But I do think in the near term that if Biden uses the 14th Amendment to end any sort of defaut that it will be why he’s impeached. It’s simple to understand for the base and it will probably zoom through Congress, only to be stopped cold in its tracks in the Senate.

We’ll see, I guess.

Imagining Trump’s Second Term

by Shelt Garner

I’m always wrong, but here are some general ideas about what Trump’s second term might look like. The key issue for me is — how close do we come to a civil war in late 2024, early 2025 after Trump wins the 2024 election? If it becomes clear that his incoming agenda is EXTREMELY RADICAL, then there is a greater-than-zero-sum chance that Blue States begin to leave the Union.

It would all happen very, very quickly. So fast that a lot of people would get caught up in the moment and wouldn’t even realize what was going on until the Second American Civil War was actually on-going.

But I just don’t think that’s going to happen. While I do think that the chance of a 2ACW is far greater if Trump becomes POTUS, in the end, I just don’t think that Blues have it in them. Too many of the people who would actually incite a National Divorce — namely, Twitter liberals — have the means, motive and opportunity to use their newly obtained second passports to flee the country and setup shop in the south of France.

So, what would a Second Trump Administration actually look like? It would be based on revenge and the final battle between MAGA and the “deep state.” But I think the real issue, the thing will transform America into a white Christian ethnostate will be a Constitutional Convention.

Within months — days? — of Trump being sworn in, he’s going to start ranting about how he is going to run again, even though the Constitutional prohibits it. At some point, he’s going to realize he can get his MAGA Enabling Acts by calling a Constitutional Convention. It goes rouge because it’s make up of people selected by state legislatures –which are majority MAGA — and away we go.

As all of this happening, a huge pipeline of wealthy, smug Twitter liberals will flow out of the country until, of course, Trump — or whomever succeeds him — freaks out and makes it illegal to leave the country.

So, there you go.

Barring something I can’t predict — that’s America’s future.

A National Divorce Would Be Just The Beginning

by Shelt Garner

The thing about a so-called National Divorce, even if it was reasonably clean and reasonably bloodless is it would be just the beginning of a protracted era of chaos in North America. The reason is simple — both sides of the political equation in now-united America need each other for political, social and economic reasons.

The moment Red and Blue America officially cleave into two, independent nations, the age-old dynamics of rival nations would kick in. Add to this that all metrics point to Red America becoming inward looking, religious and a lot poorer, suggests that any “National Divorce” would inevitably prompt a re-match of some sort.

Red America, facing growing poverty in the context of finally being able to establish white minority autocratic Christian rule would have every reason to want to reunite the country at some point soon after the initial National Divorce.

But I’m working on the absolute best case scenario. Any National Divorce would be messy and chaotic and probably be happening in the context of WW3 breaking out. What happens if, say, the DPRK decides to lob a few H-Bombs on Blue America during the process of a very blood divorce? Then what are we going to do?

It seems to me that any divorce, for any reason, would cause a civil war / revolution of some sort to a scale and impact not seen since the French Revolution. The whole world would rumble as it began to sink in to various hostile powers across the globe that they now had free reign to do whatever the fuck they wanted while America was busying eating itself.

The point is — I really hope we don’t have a civil war, for whatever reason. I’m growing comfortable with the other possible choice America may make in late 2024, early 2025: autocracy. At least if we slide peacefully into a MAGA-themed autocracy, it’s less likely that millions will die. Though, in all honesty, I do fear that it would be inevitable that some MAGA Pol Pot might appear who starts to round up all the “woke” people he can find and we end up with American Killing Fields.

Anyway. I’m always wrong. Hopefully we will someway manage to avoid either autocracy or civil war….but something pretty spectacular would have to happen.

Jesus, I Hope I’m Wrong

by Shelt Garner

It definitely seems as though the United States is careening towards autocracy or civil war starting at some point around late 2024, early 2025. My thinking is –we just aren’t going to make it through the passions of the 2024 presidential election cycle.

When your best case scenario if your country slides peacefully into autocracy, you’re definitely in a “Not great, Bob,” situation. But that’s where we are at the moment. I just don’t see the United States being able to punt the structural problems of our democracy down the road anymore.

Late 2024, early 2025 is it — Something Big is going to happen.

It could be as dramatic as civil war, or it could be something far more subtle where someone like a President DeSantis becomes America’s Putin and we are an autocracy in all but name. What I mean by this is, it’s possible that we could become a zombie democracy, with the only indication of anything having changed be how many smug Twitter liberals now live outside the country to do their smug podcasts.

We’ll all wake up in 20 years and wonder why Canada is being invaded to “save it from the woke cancel culture mob.”


But there is, of course, the far darker scenario — there is a National Divorce with either the Reds leaving the Union or the Blues leaving the Union. I don’t want either one of those things to happen, but it’s something we have to start taking seriously.

It could happen. It really could.

But who knows. It’s still too far out for us — or at least me — to get some sense of what might actually happen. One scenario is Reds leave the Union instead of Blues because Trump doesn’t get the GQP nomination and when he splits the conservative vote he freaks out and demands Red states leave the Union because he’s an idiot, not realizing they want to take him up on it.

Anyway. God good luck, folks. You may very well need it.

Is 2023 a New 1788?

by Shelt Garner

As I grow more and more alarmed about what is going to happen in late 2024, early 2025, I think I’m going to add more books about the French Revolution to books that I buy then wait years to read.

It seems to me that because of income inequality, the United States may burst into civil war and revolution as part of the 2024 presidential cycle. And, honestly, sometimes I think it’s just a matter if its Blues or Reds who are going to be the ones who get fed up and bolt the Union. (Spoiler Alert: it will probably be Blues.)

But the United States is so huge, diverse and powerful that if we collapse into civil war and or revolution, it will one of the biggest events not just in American history — but human history. The only thing I can compare it to would be the 1789 – 1799 French Revolution combined with the American Civil War.

The world really will be turned upside down if the United States should buckle – it probably would prompted WW3. The entire global order would be thrown up in the air until everything was sorted out one way or another. And just because Blues might leave the Union to start their own center-Left nation doesn’t mean that there wouldn’t be mission creep and, ultimately, there would be a global conflagration that would totally re-arrange the entire global framework.

But, before I go down that hysterical path TOO much, remember — I’m always wrong. I think, in the end, that DeSantis will be elected and initially, any changes in the United States will be rather subtle. It won’t be until 20 years of DeSantis consolidating power that we’ll endup invading Canada to overthrow the “woke cancel culture mob” there.

Or, put another way — I’m probably full of shit and why are you even listening to me at all? Wink.

‘Cry, The Beloved Country’

by Shelt Garner

Well, it’s time for me to redouble my reading about the rise of the Nazis in Germany. My Traditionalist relatives — who I love dearly — totally lulzed the idea it’s possible my fears about bloggers such as myself being forced to register with the government.

So, I think my alarm over MAGA being American Nazism is valid. I’ve found myself reading a lot more about history — especially the Nazis — and Great Men. I need to understand how to live through what could be Very Interesting Times starting sometime between now and, say, spring 2025.

What do I think is going to happen?

I honestly don’t know. Maybe nothing is going to happen. I’m always wrong, afterall.

But the idea that my conservative relatives would not realize that I, personally, could run afoul of our new American Autocrat, whomever that may be. I’ve long suggested that my Traditionalist relatives have one Red Line — ME.

And, yet, given how much they are lulzing the prospect of me NOT being a Good German ike them, I definitely seems like I may be on my own when the crisis strikes.

I have to prepare myself for either going underground once we’re an autocracy, or I’m going to become a domestic political refugee. If it’s the latter, then, I suppose it’s possible that I might be able to make a name for myself within Blue ranks.

That sounds rather delusional at this point, but in times of civil war and revolution, strange, unexpected things are known to happen.