Category: Cold Civil War

Speaker Nancy Pelosi Is Complicit In Trump’s Tyranny

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

I don’t often get angry enough to yell at my Congressional representatives. But when it became obvious that the Inspector General wasn’t going to follow the letter of the law when it came to the whistleblower situation, I lost it. I popped a gasket. I called all the offices of my Congressional delegation.

I was so mad, in fact, that I also called the offices of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. That did not go very well. I tried to yell at an actual human being, but they just put me on hold after I started talking.

Anyway, I would like to note something. It definitely seems as though because Speaker Pelosi wants to make sure polls indicate the populace supports impeachment, she’s pretty much carrying water for Trump’s re-election campaign. As I understand it, the current thinking in the upper echelons of House Leadership is they can’t impeach Trump because if he loses, then MAGA will blame them for it. They also can’t impeach him because given that the Senate will never convict him, they don’t want to give Trump vindication and something to run on.

In a sense, this is simply the pussy ass bitch version of the Republicans’ political thinking about Trump. Republicans won’t do anything about Trump because they find tax cuts and young hack MAGA judges on the Federal bench so absolutely intoxicating that they are willing to ride the MAGA pony to the bottom.

Meanwhile, I don’t know what the fuck is going on with Democrats. When the final history of the United States is finally written — sooner rather than later, I’m afraid — the sheer callow, feckless nature of House Democrats during the Trump Era will be at least a chapter. They are so wrapped up in policy and throwing money at people in different ways that they are apparently completely oblivious to something very basic — Trump is a lawless tyrant.

They are so busy drinking lattes and smelling their own farts that they don’t realize this is a war. Under no scenario will Trump not do everything in his power to paint himself as a victim. Democrats are fighting the last war. The problem is, if they don’t get their act together, they may not have a next war to fight.

As of right now, impeachment is a dead letter. Not that it won’t come back the moment there’s a Republican House and a Democratic President. It will and with a vengeance. I don’t really think that will ever happen because, well, we have The Thousand Year Trump now. House Trump will rule the country for the next 20 years — if not more. Their power should theoretically wane about the time the youngest of the Baby Boomers die and the Browning of America kicks in. But even that is simply theory. More likely at some point Tiffany Trump will tweet “I am the state” and that will be that.

That Speaker Pelosi would put crass political considerations ahead of the fate of the nation is just as bad as the abject lack of backbone displayed by Republicans. And, honestly, I don’t see anything changing. The same playbook used by Trump and Rudy with Stormy Daniels and the Mueller Report will be used here and that’s it. It’s just another big scandal in the Trump Era that fades into oblivion until the next, even bigger scandal.

Prove me wrong, Nancy.

Art Isn’t Created In A Vacuum

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

I would say one of the biggest surprises to learn on a practical level about seriously writing a novel is how outside events shape the narrative. This especially the case since I want this novel to be my “Apocalypse Now” of the Trump Era. Instead of explicating the entirety of the Vietnam War in a movie, I’m doing so about life under Trump in a novel.

Two other movies that are important to me are Network and Being There. Network because it is both timeless and very timely. You could release Network today and would still be a success. I like how it explains the modern world in an entertaining fashion. I am not in anyway proposing I’m that good a writer, but it is at the forefront of my mind as I write.

Being There is really important to me because it’s a snapshot of post-Watergate America in the late 70s. If I wanted to explain to a teen what 1979 was like, I would show them Being There. So, even though my novel is completely different than Being There, there is a spiritual connection.

Anyway, the point is, I started this novel thinking it would be a snapshot — in a general way — of life leading up to the release of The Mueller Report. Well, given how long it takes — at least me — to write a novel as well as the unknowns of post-production, it’s definitely looking like this is going to be both more ambitious and more general. Instead of just the first two years of the Trump Era, the novel is meant to encompass the entirety of it in a general sense.

If I am successful with my vision for this novel, you’ll be able to read it over a three day weekend in 20201 and it not even really register that it was generated by my abject rage against MAGA (and extremism in general.) It should be just an interesting novel that’s very accessible and zips by. Only if I were to point it out to you will you notice the allegorical nature of the work.

But that’s down the road. For the time being, I’m hard at work on the first draft. It just takes physical time to write between 165,000 and 185,000 words. For the time being I have the proper momentum to keep going. It definitely doesn’t hurt that the very thing I’m so angry about that I want to write a novel about it — the Trump Era — definitely doesn’t seem to be going anywhere.

Trump Defenses #WhistleblowerGate

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

Coming soon to a TV — and maybe Senate well — near you!

The Bullshit Defense
Fuck you, you libtard. Doesn’t matter if he did it. You kill babies. MAGA! MAGA! MAGA!

The Biden Is A Criminal Defense
Fuck you. Investigate Biden and Obama’s Netflix Deal! Lock her up! Benghazi!

The Deep State Defense
George Soros paid Obama to pay the Deep State to listen into on Trump. It doesn’t matter what he did, the REAL crime is that the Deep State is trying to bring Our President, The Chosen One, down. And…by the way..fuck you.

The Disgruntled Partisan Defense
Doesn’t matter what Trump did, this is obviously some disgruntled holdover from the Obama administration. Fuck you.

The Obama Did The Same Thing Defense
This is one I could see Emmet Flood using. We get to watch Obama say, “I’ll have more flexibility after the election” on a hot mic for 11 hours. This is bullshit because what he wasn’t illegal and it was simply traditional diplomacy. But that doesn’t matter. Flood will simply want to give political cover to Republican Senators to acquit.

The “He Was Joking” Defense
Oh, you know Trump, what a kidder!

The Master Negotiator Defense
Trump’s a master negotiator. He was just freestyling, like very stable geniuses do.

The Doofus Defense
He didn’t know what he was doing was wrong.

Imagining The Impossible

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

There are two absolutes in American politics right now.

One is Trump will never resign. The other is the Senate will never convict Trump.

So, really, any talk of impeaching Trump is moot. It would be little more than a slap on the wrist. Trump will see his inevitable aquittle as an exoneration and use it as the centerpiece of his re-election campaign.

Given that populist autocrats never lose, we are safe in assuming that Trump will “win” re-election somehow. He will use his second term to consolidate power. The United States will no-so-gradually (or quietly) drift into a Russian-style authoritarian “managed democracy” and that will be that.

But, for the sake of entertainment, let’s suppose somehow the impossible happens. Let’s suppose somehow miraculously Trump leaves office between now, and, say, the Feb-March timeframe.

We’re going to assume that Pence becomes president. Any talk that Pence is also involved in the current imbriglio, while likely true, simply at this point is too insane to speculate on.

The first issue is a pardon. Most likely, President Pence would made inane, general statements on this issue for the duration of the campaign. But, of course, he would pardon Trump at some point early in his first full term. His hope would be it would help “united” and “heal” the nation. But his real goal would be do to it so early that by the time he ran for re-election in 2024, it would be a long time ago and wouldn’t matter.

Another issue is the 2020 race. Pence is a much more conventional politician than Trump. Is only discernible weakness is he’s so fucking conservative that he is unlikely to get a lot of moderate swing voters. But he, much like Trump, wouldn’t really care about that. He just needs to tip the right swing states just enough to win their electoral votes. (Sorry California.)

One enormous issue that I can’t figure out is if our democratic norms would snap back into place or if things have been so fucked up that there’s no going back. Probably it would be some sort of muddled in between. That is until, of course, Tom Cotton becomes president with the same agenda as Trump only in a much more focus manner.

The Democratic 2020 field is not prepared to run against a President Pence. It would totally throw the entire thing for a loop. The absolute worst case scenario — and thus the most likely — is just about the time Democrats pick a challenger to Trump, Trump somehow leaves office.

Anyway, this is never going to happen. Never. NEVER. Trump is an elected dictator and the only question at this point is if he will ever leave office willingly, Constitution be damned.

Populist Autocrats Never Lose

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

The United States has been in a chronic political crisis since Trump was elected. And what’s going on right now seems like more of the same. There’s just no indication that this recent scandal isn’t going to play itself out like all the rest.

The political clock is ticking. We’re well past the moment in time when its feasible to impeach Trump, much less convict him. That The Mueller Report came out four months ago and we’re exactly where we were then when it comes to impeachment tells you all you need to know. Trump is successfully running down the clock.

All he needs to do is punt this problem into 2020 and he wins. Once he punts it to 2020, he can punt it to his second term. He gets at least a two year pardon once he’s re-elected. He will have more than enough time to considolate power by that point. His biggest decision in 2022 will be picking between Don Jr. and Ivanka as his successor.

Nothing gives me any hope that anything we learn about this whistle blower will matter. And, really, given what I’ve seen about the matter, it’s more likely Bill Barr will arrest the guy for treason and that will be that. Nancy Pelosi will stamp her feet and talk about “self-impeachment.”

I like to do scenarios and there no scenario where the bad guys don’t win. If we’ve gotten this far in the process, that’s it. The House Democratic leadership has made its decision. They don’t want to impeach Trump. They’re going to hang all their political hopes on him losing in 2020. He is most definitely NOT going to lose in 2020.

The only vague feeling of hope I have about all of this is presidential second terms tend to be far worse than second terms. That’s it. That’s all I got. Not until there’s a demostrable event that is different than past such incidents will I think anything will come of this.

And, really, given that Trump is simply an avatar for some pretty fucked up things going on in America, even if we were to miraculously get rid of him in the short term, a lot of very smart, young and passionate would-be tyrants have learned all they need to know from Trump.

The Pot Is Boiling

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

Several times since the Trump Era officially began, I have felt a sense that things have gotten kind of hot for Trump. I feel that now, but my expectations are far lower than previously. The reason is simple — the Trump defense strategy at this point is run out the clock. Their first goal is simply push all of this into 2020.

Once they do that, then the 2020 presidential political season has officially begun. There simply will be no will power on the part of the Democrats to aggressively investigate whatever treasonous things the president may have done. At that point, everyone — outside of the Democratic base — will agree to “let the people decide.”

The 2020 election will happen and Trump “wins.” (He will never lose.) Then Trump gets a solid two year political pardon. By 2022, Trump will have done new crimes and the process starts all over again.

If you throw into the mix that the Federal bench is dominated by young MAGA judges, then, well, the pot is boiling and the frog is dead. Either Trump or his younger, more focused and organized successor will turn America into an autocratic state similar to Russia’s “managed democracy.”

Though I would note that if Emmet Flood pops up in the Trump circle that Trump is taking any moves to impeach him seriously. Otherwise, meh.

Crisis Datapoints (Updating)

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

It’s not really a crisis yet, but just in case things grow dramatic, I’m going to make note of what’s going on with the recent revelation that Trump promised a foreign power something.

This may come to nothing. I am going to do this in reverse order, so newer things are at the top.

11:28 a.m. Thursday, Sept 19th, 2019
Yeah, this is playing out as expected. We’re at an impasse. The law is being broken and Democrats can’t muster the political will to do anything about it. I said this wouldn’t last a 24-hour news cycle and I was right. The person the House talked to apparently bobbed and weaved when asked about the complaint. That’s it. It’s over.

11:22 a.m. Thursday, Sept 19th, 2019
As of right now, things are going like they would otherwise. Trump’s finally tweeted his usual bullshit. It gives the MAGA base comfort that all is well. Really, the only datapoint that might indicate anything out of the ordinary is House members are beginning to leave the meeting with the point person on this matter and they’re saying. “No comment.” That could mean anything. Probably means this is going the way of Trump’s taxes. A problem that is always in the background. The DNI is supposed to testify publicly in a week, but that gives Trump plenty of time to claim Executive Privilege, tell the guy not to do it or to sue whomever necessary to prevent it from happening. Nothing out of the ordinary has happened yet.

10:12 a.m. Thursday, Sept 19th, 2019
It’s just after 10 a.m. and Trump still hasn’t tweeted today. This is still no reason to think there’s a crisis of any sort going on. I will note, however, there is a little bit of a quiet-before-the-storm vibe to the day. But that is most likely just my imagination. There’s still no sense that anything will come of this.

8:56 a.m. Thursday, Sept 19th, 2019
Trump has not tweeted yet. This is not really that big a deal. But in the context of what’s rolling around Twitter, it kind of is. Trump usually responds to stuff like this in knee jerk fashion. So far today, he’s not ranted about the deep state or fake news. Also, a Republican Congressmen on C-Span referenced Kavanaugh missteps by the press. This indicates Republicans aren’t all that concerned with the allegation. That, or the talking points haven’t been written yet.

Democrats Are Useless & A Historical Embarrassment

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

We’ve come to the point where we have to admit what is obvious: Trump is never going to get impeached because Democrats don’t want to impeach him.

The reasons for this are extremely complex. So complex that I fear my writing is good not enough to convey the situation properly. But, in general, it boils down to a crisis of leadership and playing six dimensional chest in the middle of a gun fight.

First, Speaker Nancy Pelosi has framed the debate such that Democrats have a vested interest in Trump not being impeached and rather pinning the fate of the nation on Trump losing. This is the so-called “self impeachment” she keeps talking about. This has led to such foot dragging that we’re well past the point where we can impeach Trump in his first term. The 2020 election cycle has begun. Neither the time nor the political will exists to do something that is little more that a super censure at this point. In the eyes of House Democratic Leadership, it’s bad politics to send articles of impeachment to the Senate where they will promptly die.

Second, there’s the issue of the Democrats thinking we’re still in a normal liberal democracy. They are completely oblivious to the fact that MAGA is a cult. It’s logic is recursive. MAGA’s whole point is destroying liberal democracy in the United States and installing a Russian-style autocratic “managed Democracy” here. So, when Democrats somehow come to believe that their best case scenario is they don’t impeach Trump and he loses, well, Huston, we have a problem. This makes some massive political assumptions that simply aren’t true. House Democrats believe that if they impeach Trump and he loses he will become a political martyr that will hurt them politically long-term.

This completely ignores that MAGA is a lost cause. In the unlikely event that Trump loses — impeached or not — they are going to pull something, anything out of their ass to explain it away. Trump is an avatar for systemic, existential problems in the American political system. And, in a sense, Trump is more proof that the water is boiling and the frog is dead than he is anything else. If one of your major parties doesn’t believe in democracy anymore, then it’s inevitable that they will make sure there’s no more democracy at every turn.

If you accept that MAGA is a lost cause, then impeachment is your only course of action. But it’s too late. If it happens at all, it will happen at some point in Trump’s second term. Or, more realistically, it will happen against a Democratic president after Trump leaves office (hopefully) in early 2025. Then dipshit Democrats will be shown — AGAIN — that Republicans have no shame and they are not dealing in good faith.

Republicans care about power. To them, power is the endgame. And, so, as such, within 20 years (less) something really big is going to happen. Either a civil war, or Republicans dissolve Blue State governments and replace them with military districts.

So while Nancy Pelosi is studying the tactical aspects of getting a few stray MAGA votes in swing districts, MAGA is burning the entire Republic to the ground. It’s not much of a fair fight. I used to have some hope that something would happen to Trump. That he might face some sort of political consequences. But no longer.

Republican Talking Points About Trump Being A Traitor

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

Before you get too excited about tonight’s news, folks, the Republican talking points are being written as we speak. Trump probably promised eastern Ukraine to Russia but, lulz! Tax cuts! This is what Republicans will be spouting on CNN and FOX News tomorrow.

The Deep State has always been gunning for Trump — Trump was right!
Trump gave you young hack MAGA judges on the Federal bench, remember?
Benghazi!
This is a Deep State lie. Fake News.
Any evidence this happened is a lie or a Deep Fake.
Trump was joking.
It’s only one person. He did it illegally. Dox him until his family is threatened.
Those tax cuts sure were nice.
Lock her up!
Hillary Clinton did worse.
Obama was caught on a live mic saying he would “have more flexibility” after the election.
The economy is doing well, fuck you.
Build The Wall!
American Carnage
If we do anything about this, the economy will tank and there will be a civil war. Fuck you.

Why The Fight Over Kavanaugh Is An Ominous Portent

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

First, let’s get something out of the way — MAGA is, at its core, an illiberal movement. It’s really simply Putinism with an American accent. The whole point of MAGA is to use its control of the Executive and Legislative (Senate) branches of government to destroy liberal democracy in America long-term via young hack conservative judges who care more about their partisan agenda than the good of the country. Conservatives since at least Watergate have felt like victims of evil liberals. The MAGA attack on basic American democratic norms is a strategic and well-planned agenda that was set in motion decades ago.

My current analogy is this: if this was 9/11, Trump’s election was the two airplanes striking the towers. Liberals are firefighters in the lobby, trying to figure out what they’re going to do, not fully realizing they’re going to be in rubble in a few minutes. In other words, America is already a Russian-style managed-democracy, only the details have to be worked out. That, and Trump is criminally incompetent. So it may be one of his successors who finishes the job.

Having said all that, the reason why Kavanaugh is so significant is he took the positions staked out after the Access Hollywood tape to their next logical extreme. MAGA is upset because they see the efforts to “cancel” Kavanaugh for things he did as a young man as just another overreach by liberals who want to destroy traditional masculinity.

Liberal-progressives, meanwhile, are at a loss. They feel they have Kavanaugh caught red handed and yet they can’t seem to get any traction. This pretty much sums up how disorganized and ineffective the modern center-Left is in the United States in general. They can be so wrapped up in the finer points of who is more oppressed that they lose sight of the importances of messaging. Which, of course, what Donald Trump lives and breaths. (Another term for messaging would be, of course, branding.)

And so we’re at something of an impasse. But not really. MAGA will continue to plunder the treasury and destroy democratic norms at will. They will never be held accountable for anything they do. But they demand anyone they oppose be destroyed for the smallest slight.

Really, it seems that our absolute best-case scenario long-term is some sort of moderate, centrist military junta steps in at some point to keep the country together. But far more likely is Trump will go after individual Electors on a personal basis and “win’ the 2020 race on strict Constitutional grounds. Then Blue States revolt and Trump uses that as an excuse to abolish Blue State governments, turning them into military districts.

And that, as they say, will be that.

ICE will be weaponized. The camp infrastructure already in existence will be used for anyone not wise enough to shut up — like me! — and, then…well…I guess that’s it.