Tag: We Are So Fucked

The Darkest Timeline

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

No one listens to me. And generally no one reads this blog. But for my own peace of mind, I will make some observations about how bad things could get in the next few weeks.

As I’ve said many times, we’ve elected a deranged version of Being There’s Chauncey Gardner. Trump is not a political genius. Access journalists have had a vested interest in making us thinking this because if Trump really is just a lucky doofus then that means maybe going to Harvard doesn’t make them as cool as they think it does. Trump is not only a moron, he’s wilfully ignorant. He’s unstable, racist and misogynistic. The case could be made that only his love for his daughter — and maybe a native political skill — prevents him from being an anti-semite. Even then, I’m grading doofus on a severe curve.

Stephen King’s “The Dead Zone” may be a little too on the nose.

The worst part of all of this, the thing that makes Trump himself the biggest mistake in American history besides Prohibition and the Dred Scott Decision is we wilfully elected someone who obviously never took his oath seriously. He never took it seriously and he was wilful when given the opportunity to bring as may people down with him when given the chance. That Trump would wait 24 hours to call up the president of Ukraine after being given a political pardon by Chris Wallace because of Mueller’s “poor optics” in his testimony before Congress is the single biggest self-own in American political history.

Nothing comes close. Nixon not burning the tapes comes close, but it’s my understanding he had some health issues with his legs at the time and he was bed ridden and not physically up to doing it.

And so, this is where you need to take a deep breath and have a stiff drink. It’s going to get dark pretty quick. Trump is never going to resign and it’s debatable if Republicans will ever buckle. Or, if they do, Trump’s mental deterioration will have reached a point where we all throw up a few times at the realization that we don’t know exactly who is in control of the nuclear codes.

You Know It.

That we had a similar problem with Nixon during Watergate does not make me feel any better. Nixon — I think — began to act erratically enough that there was talk of the nuclear chain of command debated not being too quick to follow his orders. And Nixon raised our threat level — If I recall correctly — at a politically advantageous moment.

All of this leads to a very specific issue — if somehow Trump self-owns enough that the Senate actually convicts him, what’s the exact sequence of events then? If Trump isn’t at Trump Tower by that point, how, exactly, would we get him out of the White House? He is likely to have snapped by that point and he will have his Twitter feed to make himself feel better. Having an ex-president rage-tweeting all day and squatting in the White House doesn’t make me feel great.

I have my doubts that things will get that bad, and, yet, my general predictions about Trump slowly cracking up once the impeachment process began are holding up quite well. No one can predict the future, least of all me. But I do think we should change the way we look at all of this.

Oh boy.

This is not going to be a political process, this is going to be the entire nation holding its breath to see if Trump goes Howard Beale on us and how the system reacts. No government official can follow an illegal order in the American system — though Trump has “joked” about pardons. Lulz? So, I guess it’s at least possible Trump might begin to go full Nazi on us and simply tell people in a “joking” fashion that he’ll pardon them. (Come to think of it, the president’s all-powerful pardoning ability is a definite weakness in the American system of based on law.)

I just want to make this clear — take this seriously. We may be careening towards a mixture of the OJ Trial and 9/11 with a little bit of Network and I, Claudius thrown in.

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Trump’s Mental State Is Now A Crisis But For The Press Not Treating It As One

Now what.

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

It gives me no pleasure to observe that my scenario running on the topico what might happen to Trump’s mental stability is beginning to play out about the way I predicted. We aren’t where we may endup yet, but we’re getting there.

The pressure of a looming impeachment is beginning to way on Trump and his already weak mental constitution can’t cope. But he’s still well within the spectrum of his previous behavior on Twitter. He’s ranting like a trapped rat, yes, but an adept sycophant could probably defend it on a Sunday morning chat show. It’s when Trump takes it to the next logical step and does things that are demonstrably indefensible, then what is now a chronic DL crisis is, well, just a crisis.

Trump’s bonkers behavior is happening right now and the press isn’t really conveying to the public what it all means. I guess they don’t want to scare people. But there may come a point where things come to a boil and not even access journalists can explain it all away in soothing tones. Here’s what we may be able to expect in the coming days and weeks.

Trump directly tells MAGA supporters to pick up arms against the government, specifically Congress. He will suggest who to kill and why. He may dox Orange Crush on Twitter and tell MAGA to hunt him down and kill him.

He will tweet out a dick pick.

He will start tweeting out the n-word to any notable person of color who he has a past history of hostility towards.

And, worst of all, he will finally suggest in an extremely passive-aggressive fashion that globalist cucks want him to kill himself. When that happens, we remember that he has the nuclear codes. We might find ourselves throwing up a few times, thinking of what might happen.

How likely is any of that? I honestly don’t know. I’m just running a scenario given datapoints that seem to fit future possibilities. Maybe none of that will happen, but they are things to keep in the back of your mind going forward.

What’s more, there’s one loony thing that is the wildcard — will Trump begin to use the levers of power in an attempt to escape his impeachment destiny? In shades of Caligula naming a horse Counsel, he might name Rudy a Special Prosecutor to look into Hillary’s emails. He might somehow talk to Putin or “Little Rocket Man” to stir up trouble for him so he’s a war president. He could finally do that Executive Order ending birthright citizenship.

But that’s a ways down the road. Or, it is until it’s not. That’s why this is beginning to make me nervous. He could simply abruptly lurch forward into bonkers territory in a pretty spectacular fashion and we won’t be prepared for it.

Or maybe not. He might just be chronically somewhat bonkers through the next few weeks and months and never finally crack. But I am nervous. I’m growing concerned.

Maybe you should be, too.

‘The Stand’

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

It is growing apparent from the chatter in the extreme Right’s echo chamber that there is one reason and one reason only why they want to know the identity of “Orange Crush.” Once they know who the whistleblower is, they use the messaging tools they feel were used on Kavanaugh during his confirmation hearings.

They don’t want to talk about anything the cold hard, collaborated facts that are an existential threat to Trump’s presidency — they want to talk about anything Orange Crush has ever done wrong in their entire life. Because a majority of Republican Senators agree with Kavanaugh’s actual judicial policies, the fact that the nomination was in trouble because of something that happens when Kavanaugh was a young man has led many Right wing commentators to wash their hands of liberal democracy altogether.

So, in the eyes of MAGA, the moment they know who Orange Crush is, they have a strategic messaging roadmap — you scream at the top of your lungs that Orange Crush smoked pot at a college party on Twitter instead of addressing what they proved to be correct about Trump. This is something similar to the “but her emails” line of argument.

This is where we are now politically.

There’s really only one major problem with this otherwise fool proof line of reasoning — the conventional wisdom is beginning to form that Orange Crush is a patriot. Every day the Republican Cult lacks a strategic response to what’s going on is another day closer to this actually, in fact, being an existential threat to not just the Trump Administration, but the Republican Party itself.

They could still very well pull it off. I know a decent amount about American presidential history and if the facts that we know hold up, what Orange Crush exposed would be, in fact, the biggest political scandal in American history. In fact, the only scandal I can compare it to is the circumstances surrounding the founding of the Anti-Masonic Party. As I understand it, that party was founded because the Masons used their power in New England to get a Mason off for murder.

The TrumpUkraine scandal takes that quantum leap forward in gravity. It’s not a problem of a secret society in New England overreaching, it’s that the leader of the country, a duly elected president of the United States would go to a foreign power to influence an election. What makes this even worse, is he did it 24 hours after the “bad optics” of Bob Mueller gave him a political pardon. And what’s even WORSE, is he is inching towards getting Orange Crush murdered because of a “joke.”

In the end, this may very well be The Stand of American History. The lines between Good and Evil will be clearly drawn. And, I hate to break it to you, the good guys don’t always win. Just ask he Jews of Europe in September 1939. Or the French Third Republic in 1940. Or the people of Eastern Europe after WWII. Or the people in the graves of Cambodia’s Killing Fields.

Either we’re careening towards darkness, or some sort of national absolution. If I knew which one, I would be working at the RAND Corporation, now giving a TED Talk and smelling my own farts.

Again, no one is going to save us but ourselves.

Shelton Bumgarner is writing his first novel. He may be reached at migukin (at) gmail (dot) com if you’re not insane.

We Got A Problem, Fam — Donald Trump Has To Go To Prison

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

The most troubling allegation against Trump at this point is he waiting 24 hours to call the president of Ukraine to do the very thing he was just politically pardoned for by the “bad optics” Mueller’s testimony to Congress.

This is a stunning insight into Trump’s motives and personality. And, as such, the only endgame for any patriot at this point is Trump is immediately removed from office, given due process for his crimes and, if convicted, spends the rest of his life in prison.

The reason for this is simple — from Trump’s point of view if a President Pence grants him a Ford-level type pardon, he’s free to turn around and use the contacts he’s developed as president to do it all again. If Trump is a free man with a twitter feed and a mental rolodex of world leaders (Putin, MBS) he has every reason to again attack our democracy. It won’t be for himself this time, it will be for Don Jr. or Ivanka.

Simply trying Trump at all in a court of law would be an extraordinary precedent to set. It’s not something I propose lightly. The moment you do it, MAGA wills set their sights on Hillary Clinton. But as long as he’s a free man, Trump’s got the means, motive and opportunity to do it all over again for as long as he can.

The issue is, as of right now, it’s debatable if we can get him out of office at all, much less have the political will to try him.

The Republican Cult Has An Existential Messaging Problem: Donald Trump

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

Today has been unusual in the annals of Trump Era Republican messaging. It’s all been tactical. I’ve not seen any kind of cogent, strategic response to what Trump is accused of doing.

A lot of quibbling about this or that thing to suggest that either “everybody does it” or “it’s a sinister Deep State plot,” but no cohesive vision as to why Trump should stay in office other than he’s Der Fuhrer and that’s that. With the news that the Trump regime is now abusing power in a spectacular and brazen way by looking to of all things Hillary Clinton’s emails and we know this is, in fact, the existential battle royale I’ve said it is.

The Caine Mutiny (1954) Directed by Edward Dmytryk Shown: Humphrey Bogart

Because of the gimme of the Mueller Investigation being not only long but a bust, Trump’s been given the time needed to figure out how to use — and abuse — the levers of power. If Trump’s messaging plan is literally use “but her emails” as a reason why he should in power, he and his corrupt cronies are in serious, serious, serious trouble.

In a sense, all of Trump’s insane attacks on the press have been a lead up to this moment. He believes he’s so discredited the press in the eyes of the MAGA base, if no one else, that they “won’t know who to believe” when push comes to shove. But as of this moment, things aren’t going according to the usual plan.

It’s becoming more and apparent which members of the power structure have a vested interest in absolute devotion to sucking the MAGA teet and who don’t. Some people are simply embarrassing themselves to such an extent that it doesn’t matter what happens next — they’re career as nothing more than a partisan hack is assured. If Trump survives, they become a spokesperson for a corrupt authoritarian regime, if he loses, then their career is destroyed. Brit Hume, specifically, is playing with fire. A very big career-ending bonfire, in fact.

At this point, Trump has leverage over the situation because he’s president and he has no shame. He knows the MAGA base doesn’t believe in liberal democracy, so lulz. The only problem for him is things are moving so fast and he got caught red handed in an easy to understand fashion. Trump is a moron, so he thinks as long as he keeps the base he can survive in the Senate. He thinks Republicans Senators would rather vote to acquit and in the hopes of surviving their primary then brace for the general than vote to convict and lose to a MAGA primary challenger. But if every other political polling group grows to hate Trump with a historical white hot rage, a few Republican Senators might realize that their hopes in the general might not be all that great. They have no shame, so they’re likely to stick with Trump. But as it obvious, Trump’s kind of deranged already as it is, so things are likely to get worse going forward.

This is on the face of it pretty basic modern American politics. Especially if you have to accept that Trump has shown a propensity to meddle in elections when he feels he can, so lulz. Trump is pretty much willing to destroy everything around him simply so he doesn’t get his fee-fees hurt. The Republican Cult will survive if Trump is convicted, but there’s a chance they will be seen by independents for what they are — a dangerous anti-democratic organization that should be voted against at all costs.

What’s more, we haven’t even gotten to the biggest problem facing Republicans going forward — Trump himself. They have no shame, crave power for power’s sake and they have absolute devotion to Trump. So should Trump’s cognitive decline accelerate as the pressure of impeachment gets to him, they have only themselves to blame for what happens. They are going to ride the Trump Train down to the bottom of the raven. What happens then is anyone’s guess.

The macro social, economic and political that produced Trump will linger for decades to come. They’re not going anywhere, even if we somehow miraculously get the Senate to convict him. If it’s not Trump, it’s Kris Kobach. If it’s not Kris Kobach, it’s Tom Cotton. If it’s not Tom Cotton, it’s Tucker Carlson. There’s a never ending supply of people with the exact same base and exact same goals as Trump. The only reason we MIGHT get spared this time is Trump is criminally incompetent at his job. He has always been a Right wing Twitter troll. That’s it. That’s all he is and that’s all he will ever be.

The Aristocrats!

What Was Bob Mueller’s Relationship To Bill Barr At The Time His Report Was Finished?

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

Now What.

It’s too soon to suggest anything unethical, but there are some datapoints about the end of the Mueller investigation that leave me uneasy.

Bob Mueller is a lifelong Republican.
He is very well respected. He’s an American hero.
Bill Bar is an old buddy.

Mueller abruptly wrapped up his investigation the Trump Administration soon after Barr formally settled into his job as the head of Justice. Given what has come out, Barr is at the center of a massive scandal. Barr does not seem to have the best interests of the nation or justice at heart.

Someone should look into this.

I Have Some Concerns

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

First, there are a lot of very stupid people on Twitter.

Anyway, while I believe everything I’m learning, there are some pretty strange “known unknowns” floating around.

What was the exact nature of Bob Mueller’s relationship to Bill Barr at the time he decided to wrap up his investigation?

Why is Bill Barr in Europe right now?

What is going on with H. R. McMaster?

How did all of this go on for so long and it’s only now coming out?

Something about this isn’t making any sense. A lot of people were complicit in some serious crimes for a long time or, I don’t know, this is all some sort of weird setup to do…what?

I don’t know. Just have a feeling we’re being trolled for some sort of nefarious purpose.

America’s Moment Of Truth In The Age Of Trump

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

One of my dad’s favorite movies is Mr. Roberts. The movie is about honor, leadership and the uses of power. As I reflect on this political clusterfuck we find ourselves in, I suggest you watch it if you’ve not done so already.

With that in mind, let’s look at the state of play in America politics on a macroscale with an eye to how history might judge us.

On a macro level, two issues stick out about what’s going on with TrumpUkraine.

Trump Is A Galactic Brain Self-Own Artist
None of this would have happened if Trump was, in fact, the political genius that all those access journalists who whisper in hushed tones that Trump is subtlety influencing middle aged white women ages 39-45 with his political messaging.

In fact, Trump is a deranged version of Being There’s Chauncey Gardner. That’s it, that’s what’s going on. Trump is demonstrably a moron. Not only is he a barely functioning man child, he’s a wilful one at that. Would a very stable genius barely wait 24 hours after Chris Wallace cooed that the “bad optics” of Mueller’s testimony had politically pardoned him to call up the president of Ukraine to do the very same thing again ? I mean, come on people.

As I’ve said before — the only reason why Trump’s considered some sort of political genius is it validates the career choices of some very powerful people who can’t accept that if history is just right any old doofus can become president. If you accept that Trump is not smart, is not educated and doesn’t know what he’s doing and he still managed to become president, that might evoke a little bit of existential angst for a New York Times reporter.

That Trump would be criminally incompetent in broad daylight for years and it not be taken seriously shows some serious problems with modern America. If it happened once, it could happen again. If support for Trump among the establishment goes the way of the issue of Iraqi WMD, we are in for a serious fucking political problem going forward.

I say the following in all seriousness: the United States may have dodged a bullet not because all the ranting of people on Twitter pointing out the obvious, but because Trump is such a complete and abject failure at everything but being a criminal that people finally noticed — because of Trump’s own actions! If Trump actually a political genius, Trump would lay low until after his second term and THEN strike. But he’s a willful idiot and he couldn’t control himself.

The Crisis Is, At Last, Existential

This brings us to the other macro issue. This is where I grow a little sad about the nation I love so much. Trump is in trouble because we were so busy pinning all our liberal fever dream hopes of Bob Mueller — a lifelong Republican and Bill Barr’s best bud — that we gave Trump time to finally figure out how to use the levers of power. So, we were content with tearing brown families apart. A smash and grab tax cult for plutocrats. Dozens of young, hack MAGA judges on the Federal bench for decades to come. The list goes on. Nothing, but nothing stuck because we gave 35% of the electorate a veto over our political process. We were so wrapped up in intercine battles within the the so-called Resistance, that nothing happened.

And here were are.

We face an existential crisis at last. The lines are clear. Are we a nation of laws or not ?What’s more important to us, “owning the moment” or respecting the lives of those who have fought and died to protect the Union. I mean, hell, guys, Trump has openly proposed eliminating birth right citizenship — something a few hundred thousand people died fighting over — and it got barely more than a lulz.

I don’t know what happens next. I do know it’s up to us.

No one is going to save us. We have to save ourselves. If it’s not too late.

A House Trump Death Rattle (Maybe)

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

I’m reluctant to say we’re in any type of late-stage Watergate situation just yet. Watergate’s conclusion came about because of a very specific set of circumstances that, because of a lack of precedent, we’ve come to believe is a forgone conclusion.

As I’ve written before, this is not 1974 and Trump is not Nixon. Republicans have no shame and crave power for power’s sake. As such, even though every other metric could be against Trump, Republicans could simply deny it all and stand firm. It’s hard for a liberal democracy to have a functioning Constitution when one of its major parties believes you can only impeach a president if they gain from it politically.

I guess what I’m saying is — the entire fate of the United States rests on Trump, well, being Trump. I would go so far as to say at this point it would actually be out of character for Trump not to do something so completely indefensible, so completely and demonstrably beyond the pale of any type of normal human behavior, that Republicans will find themselves at last defending the absolutely indefensible. If we’ve gotten this far into this situation and we’re not thinking that maybe the Deep State might be the good guys, well,oh boy.

In fact, I will go so far as to say we’re looking for the wrong signs. We’re looking for a major Republican to be Barry Goldwater. Nope. The best we can maybe hope for is a surreal version of The Pence Pivot. If Trump gets the whistleblower murdered, or tweets out a dick pic or tweets the n-word to Obama, Republican leaders will simply say they REALLY voted for Pence and why are you asking the question.

Even then, they won’t even hold an impeachment trial in the Senate.

Having said all that, I would like to tell AOC and a few other people floating around that there’s a chance that things are going to get so bad, so surreal that they are going to be given a masterclass on leadership in real time. I watched on 9/11 as then President Bush simply deflated. He ran away. The nation, for a moment, was leaderless. For a few crucial hours, Rudy was our president.

All I’m saying is, if things get as absolutely surreal as they look like they may, history is watching. They say one’s character comes out best in extreme situations. A few of our elected leaders may be given the opportunity to tell us who they really are, for better or worse.

But we’re not quite there yet. Maybe Bill Barr has proof TrumpUkraine is all an evil plot on the part of the Deep State. Again, at this point, Chris Wallace might suggest the “optics” on that one might not be so great for House Trump.

Maybe the Deep State is like the Second Foundation? Maybe they’re protecting the Constitution? We’ll see.

I Don’t Believe The Senate Is Going To Hold A Trump Impeachment Trial

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelton Bumgarner
@bumgarls

Let’s be honest — we’ve reached point where Republicans are a cult. In their eyes, the only legitimate way to impeach a president is if they, themselves, gain politically by it. So, really, in their view, only a Democrat president can be impeached.

That’s it. A Republican, by definition, is immune to any Constitutional punishment for their actions.

So, you can pull any kind of reason why this or that thing might help Democrats make their case going forward — Mich McConnell is simply not going to hold the trial. It’s a win-win for him. Senate Republicans don’t have to defend a vote if it’s never held. And the move gives Trump free reign to help Republicans in the 2020 election cycle by doing whatever the fuck he wants to do. Bribe Electors. Dox them. Appoint Rudy as a Special Prosecutor to look into the Bidens. Directly ask the Russians to hack the election. Whatever. It will help Republicans keep the White House. And the base will be happy so they keep the Senate.

Republicans keep power, which is all they care about. They have no shame. None. Zero. They are completely detached from any form of political reality at this point.

Why this is extremely troubling is the Senate simply not holding a trial is sort of a Constitutional singularity in that it’s the point where politics and the Constitution meet. Even if SCOTUS tells the Senate it has to do it, McConnel could simply ignore them. That would be fun.

I honestly have no way to address this. If we revolt, Trump simply abolishes Blue State governments, purges Congress of Democrats and, well, MAGA?