Now, let me be clear — the conditions for a general war between Russia and Ukraine have existed for years. It’s just that in the last few days things have grown significantly worse, so much so that pretty much it’s just up to Putin at this point if anything happens. Let me explain.
1. Putin is corning Ukraine
It appears as though Putin is putting the squeeze on the Ukrainians in such a way that they might feel the only course of action they have is to attack the Russians in a big way, which would, of course, give Russia the cover it needs to start a general war with Ukraine. By “general war,” I mean one in which the endgame is to take Kiev and establish a rump state in the portion of Ukraine that could stretch from Odessa in the west all the way around Crimea then all the way around some more to Kiev.
2. Trump is historically weak
Trump is a historically weak president on a number of fronts, most especially Russia. Does anyone really expect Trump to do anything, anything at all if Putin starts a major war against Ukraine? There will be a major reaction by the Pols and the rest of NATO when it comes to sending arms and advisers to what’s left of Free Ukraine, but the United States under Trump is unlikely to say anything at all.
3. Trump’s in trouble.
It seems pretty clear to me that given the two things stated above, that Putin might try to help Trump by starting a major war against Ukraine, one big enough that it would distract people in the States to such an extent that Trump would feel comfortable firing Bob Mueller, pardoning half a dozen people and then hunker down for the House to officially flip in January.
Now, there are some major reasons why Putin wouldn’t do anything at all.
The biggest reason off the top of my head is while Putin’s forces could take Kiev in “two weeks,” it’s highly unlikely that they could keep it long term. It’s very possible that Putin has long ago done the geopolitical calculation in his head and he just doesn’t see a general war against Ukraine as worth it, ever. Even with a historically friendly Trump Administration in office, it just doesn’t make any sense for Putin to risk the existential threat associated with a war with Ukraine that he knows long-term could very well cause his downfall.
So, there’s a better than even chance that this is all nothing. This is just the usual geopolitical scuffling that goes on between the Ukrainians and the Russians and it’s all a big false alarm. We’re likely to know one way or another in a few days.