by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
The thing at the forefront of my mind is not any risk of a repeat of the January 6th Insurrection, but, rather something far more dire. The Republican Party has totally gone off the reservation — it’s now nothing short of fascist. As such, the two most likely scenarios for 2024 – 2025 are either Trump wins and we peacefully slip into autocracy or he loses and we have a civil war as Red State begin to leave the Union.
There is, of course, the very real — but far lesser — possibility that there might be something akin to a “Resistance Revolution” if it becomes clear that Trump’s incoming agenda is so radical that Blues simply won’t stand for it. But, in all honesty, I find such a notion dubious because smug Twitter liberals just don’t have it in them to stand up to Trump, no matter how radical and autocratic his vision for America might be.
They’ll just leave the country and setup up shop in the south of France.
As such, it seems what’s most likely to happen is Trump wins and we become an autocratic nation of blood and soil. Then, about 20 years form now, we’ll wake up and wonder why President MTG is invading Canada to “liberate it from the woke cancel culture mob.”
The crux of the matter is late 2024, early 2025 is when the United States decides, one way or another, what the fuck it’s going to do about MAGA and Trump. I suppose it’s at least possible that we might punt things down the road another four years, but I have my doubts. Given how old Biden is, how fascist Republicans are on a structural basis, it definite seems as though late 2024, early 2025 Will Be It.
We’re going to lurch forward in a big way into a uncertain and potentially very dark future. What’s more, the entire world order established after WW2 could be upended, with the United States leaving NATO and pulling troops out of South Korea.
And all of this will happen in the context of the DPRK lurking in the shadows, ready to lob a few nukes in the direction of the United States if it thinks it can get away with it.
But, as I always say — I’m always wrong. I just can’t predict the future. All I got is a general sense of the macro trends a play in American political history at the moment and then extrapolating the into the future. But just like 2020, it’s absolutely possible that something weird will happen and we’ll manage to go a third way that doesn’t involve either autocracy or violence.
Because the thing you have to remember is — Republicans, on a structural basis, are primed and ready to demand a National Divorce if Trump loses in 2024. That’s the thing we have to take seriously. So, you can tell me all you like how Trump will have problems winning the general giving everything going on, that doesn’t stop the fact that Trump and MAGA could see such a loss as a cue to start a civil war.
So, I just don’t know. It could go any number of different ways. I just, in general, don’t believe we can assume that we’re going to just “muddle through.” All the metrics are aligning such that Something Big And Bad may happen in late 2024, early 2025.
