by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner
Let me begin, yet again, by saying I can’t predict the future. But one thing is clear, the 2024 presidential election is shaping up to be the most significant in American political history since 1860. I say this because there seem to be a number of pretty dramatic outcomes in late 2024, early 2025 no matter what happens.
Before I talk about how a civil war might start, I would like to note that we’re still too far out. There are too many known unknowns that could still allow us to, much like 2020, to punt some severe political and structural problems in American society down the road another four years.
But let’s address the issue at hand — could the United States have a civil war?
The key thing to note is I’m choosing my words carefully. The scenario I’m laying out is one in which a National Divorce becomes a civil war. At the moment, there is only one way where I see us having a civil war — ding-dong Trump somehow manages to lose or “not win” the 2024 election.
Now, this is where I have to hone into a specific issue that is sometimes missed by talking heads on TV. Trump is so vainglorious, so dumb and oblivious to the impact of his words that he could accidently, on purpose, unto himself cause a civil war out of pure self-preservation.
Here’s how I think it would happen.
Soon after it becomes clear that Trump has magically lost the 2024 election, he will ratchet up the hysterical political rhetoric. The prospect of going to jail will have a way of focusing Trump’s mind and he might even go transactional and begin to rant in very specific terms about how it’s time for a National Divorce. Maybe. Something like that.
And this would be the moment of truth for MAGA. They would have to put up or shut up in regards to their belief that the Deep State is out to get them. And it’s clear to me that if there was a civil war, it would begin at the state level. Soon after Election Day, states like Texas and South Carolina, will begin to call up Secessionist Conventions to take up the issue of leaving Union.
This will not happen in a vacuum. The reason why any National Divorce will, by definition, be very messy, is a lot of Red States have a lot of Blues living in them. And there are also states like Virginia which are actually one Red state and one Blue state fused together who hate each other with a passion.
So, as the country begin to cleve into Red and Blue once and for all there will be a massive amount dometic political refugees will be generated. And it’s this specific issue that I think would indicate shit was really going down. If millions of people freaked out and felt they were no longer safe because their personal political views did not fit that of their home state, well, get ready.
This is just the beginning of a potential clusterfuck.
If the United States implodes then there is every reason to believe that WW3 will erupt as a number of simering regional conflicts get hot really fast. And, what’s more, there is always the risk that the DPRK will lob a few H-bombs our way just to be a dick.
And, remember, history has it happens has no narrative. It’s not until everything is wrapped up that we look back and think this or that outcome was “inevitable.” So, it’s just as possible that some sort of Trumplandia will successfully come into existence as it is that the “good guys” will win.
I continue to believe that all signs point to Trump winning and the United States peacefully slouching towards a Russian-style autocracy.
