Category: Media

Called It — Of Chatbot ‘Bias’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

For once in my otherwise dissipated life, I actually called it — the mainstream media has caught wind of something I have long believed: we’re on the cusp of a looming battle over “chatbot bias.”

This is a prime example of how you can be right and nothing will come of it. Or, put another way, let me illustrate in concrete terms a more general idea. I once heard that the man who coined the term “blog” was now a homeless person in some major European city. So, just because you might have your own Wikipedia entry, in real terms it doesn’t mean shit.

The power elite who are “normal” and who have lived “normal” lives won’t even blink an eye if a freaky weirdo such as myself gets something “right.” Which, of course, makes me wonder about my dreams of being a published author.

Is it possible that, by definition, I can never be traditionally published because I’ve simply lived in oblivion too long? It’s meta issues like this that really trouble me whenever I start to game out moving from the writing phrase of working on my first novel on to the Beta Reader process and, ultimately, querying.

I’m growing concerned that I could write the fucking Bible and just because of my status as a drunk crank I won’t get published. This really, really worries me. But I am, as the late Annie Shapiro said, a “delusional jerk with a good heart” so, lulz, let’s rock n roll.

‘When will the next civil war start?’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I am always, always wrong. But I do like to run scenarios, so I’ve written a great length about the idea that we’re at risk of having a Second American Civil War starting in late 2024, early 2025 because of the passions of the 2024 presidential election.

I continue, however, to lean towards the idea that when push comes to shove, rather than have a civil war, the United States will simply drift peacefully into a MAGA themed autocracy. At least 1 million smug Twitter liberals will flee the country and before you know it, we’ll wake up 20 years from now wondering why the United States is invading Canada to “liberate” it from the “woke cancel culture mob.”

I wish I was joking.

But here’s my personal scenario about how we might have a Second American Civil War between now and, say, spring 2025.

First, I can’t predict the future.

Second, barring some sort of catalyst, I think we’re fine until at least late 2024. I still think you need to get out of the country as soon as possible if you really believe there’s going to be “civil unrest.”

However, here are some reasons why we will have a civil war, starting around late 2024, early 2025.

  1. Republicans have come to glorify political violence
    Something you see a lot these days within the bullshit echo chamber of the MAGA New Right is the belief that because “liberals won’t leave us alone” that they are being “driven” to extremism. There’s a lot of leading not-so-vague talk as to what all this would ultimately mean. But it’s clear that for a number of “thought leaders” within the MAGA New Right that they have accepted that at some point in the future, they’re going to have to resort to violence to get what they want.
  2. Republicans no longer believe in democracy
    It is now clear that like any good fascists, Republicans no longer believe in democracy unless it’s for the specific purpose of gaining and keeping power. This view of the system they’re supposed to a part of leads them do extremely destabilizing things that help push the country to the brink.
  3. Trump 2024
    Just Trump being the 2024 nominee would, in itself, be enough to cause a civil war at some point in late 2024 – early 2025. He just has a special knack for “owning the libs” in such a way that if he stole in 2024 election and said the “quiet part outloud” that Blue States would grow so enraged that it would be they, not Red States, that left the Union and caused a Second Civil War. But Ron DeSantis is polling exceptionally well at the moment, so either Trump politically shivs him at some point, or he co-ops him, making him his VP, opening the door to DeSantis becoming America’s Putin at some point down the road a little bit.
  4. Steve K Bannon.
    Bannon and his toadies are actively working to destroy the framework that we use to administer free and fair elections. So, it’s very easy to imagine a situation where this gambit works in ways that Trump himself is too idiotic to pull off personally and it will be so egregious that, again, Blue States leave the Union and we have a Second American Civil War.
  5. Extreme negative polarization
    We’re in for a bump four or so years, no matter what, because negative polarization, on a systemic level, has reached a critical mass. When one of your political parties is fascist and would rather crash the global economy instead of even appear to work for the good of the nation — you got a problem.
  6. A lack of shared values
    As the big blow up on Twitter in the last 24 hours about a Stephen Colbert song and dance gag about getting vaccinated proves — we can’t even agree on what’s funny. A combination of this and negative polarization is leading to the United States being two nations, one Red, one Blue and when we get around to attempting to elect the next president, the system simply won’t be prepared for the passions it will stir up.
  7. A potentially historic miscalculation on the part of Republicans
    It’s possible that, much like European powers in the lead up to WW1, when the time comes and Republicans have a choice between peacefully transitioning us into autocracy or fucking with us all so we want to take up arms, they will choose the latter not because they have to, but because they want to. It’s possible that by the 2024 — 2025 period, Republicans will see a civil war as their only choice to consolidate power, even if it’s clear that they could get everything they ever wanted within the system they so obviously loath.
  8. SCOTUS sides with MAGA on the “Independent Legislature” concept.
    I really don’t know that much about this idea other than it would pretty much give MAGA free reign to ignore the popular vote and use its power over state legislatures to deny Democrats the White House for, well, forever. Once it dawns on Blues that they simply will never be allowed to take the White House again, that might be the final breaking point.

And, honestly, the only thing standing in the way of an autocrat becoming president in 2025 and seizing “total control” pretty quick is any potential cleaving between MAGA and the Republican Party that takes place between now and then.

Given what I’m seeing right now, it definitely doesn’t seem as though that’s going to be a problem. At this point, it seems as though Republicans will first win power in Congress in 2022, then win the presidency (one way or another) in 2024 and that will be that.

The autocracy we feared during the Trump Era will come, just four years later than we all expected. But…

There’s a real chance that our transition from liberal democracy to autocracy won’t be as smooth as I think — there could be a civil war. One side — or the other — won’t accept the results of the election and the country will finally buckle. All the nightmare scenarios that I came up with in 2020-2021, will just happen in 2024-2025.

If what happened in 2020 is any indication, the first sign that we would have that something was amiss would be on the local level. Instead of people who simply do their job as Americans and do the rather perfunctory duty of certifying the win of A Democrat, this doesn’t happen. In crucial voting districts all across swing states, Bannon’s “spiritual shock troops” either refuse to certify the win of A Democrat, or they go so far as to YOLO things and switch the win to Trump.

As this happens, the tension in United States escalates day by day. The very rallying cry of MAGA in 2020 — “Stop The Steal” will be adopted by the center-Left when it becomes clear that the MAGA New Right is hell bent on brazenly stealing the 2024 election in broad daylight.

But remember, the center-Left has a very different personality than the MAGA New Right. The center-Left, for all it’s problems with “cancel culture” and being “woke” is still actually connected to reality. So, there would be a struggle between the natural inclination of centrist Liberals to let the “process work” and Leftists who would want to burn everything to the ground given how corrupted everything had become.

All of this turmoil on the local level would find elections in crucial states thrown into the political realm where MAGA state legislatures and Secretary’s of State would begin to actively ensure that A Democrat is prevented from winning. Every day between Election Day 2024 and Certification Day 2025 things would grow more and more unstable in the United States as it became clear that Bannon’s long-planned “administrative coup” was actually going to work.

There would be mass confusion. Lots of lawsuits

And, remember, if Trump is involved, as all of this is going on, he would do everything in his personal power to rile up both sides. If his ongoing, progressive cognitive decline has gotten bad enough, he might even go transactional.

It would be around this point that I could see Blue governors begin to make serious plans to leave the Union. A lot would depend on what California was willing to do. But it would definitely make sense that California would be the first state to call a Secessionist Convention in preparation of leaving the Union if the 2024 election is, in fact, stolen.

But by some point between Thanksgiving and Christmas, you could see some sort of summit of Blue Governors where they debate their plans to leave the Union if the very thing that the MAGA New Right wants — to turn the United States into an autocracy — actually happens.

And as we approached Certification Day in January 2025, the last step in the crisis would happen. If you thought Certification Day 2021 was bad, just wait until Republicans are actively going over and above what they did then when it rolls around in 2025. So, the system will have been corrupted at both the local and state level. And then if that doesn’t work, Republicans will again try to throw the election into the House and Senate to buy time, if nothing else.

So, let me be clear — anyone who thinks we’re going to have some sort of MAGA New Right revolution a la The Turner Diaries — is a fool. Any Second American Civil War we have is probably going to be started by Blue States leaving the Union out of disgust that the fix is in.

Therefore, by the time Certification Day 2025 rolls around, it could very well be a foregone conclusion that we’re going to have a pretty organized civil war. Republicans have no shame and don’t apparently care about the consequences of their actions, so, lulz, we could find ourselves in the absolute worst of worlds because not only are states actively thinking about leaving the Union around this time, but the whole process of figuring out who is POTUS will be languishing in Congress. Republicans, because they are politically blood thirsty and will cheat, will win the power struggle, but there’s a chance states will begin leaving the Union.

It won’t be deranged, individual MAGA New Right blowing stuff up in some sort of rearguard action. It’s going to be a Blue Nation verses a Red Nation. A lot of the same things that happened in the First American Civil War will happen in the second. The U.S. Military will implode as people from Blue States leave it to establish a new Blue State military.

But one thing we have to expect in late 2024 to early 2025 is a mass migration of people across the country as people no longer feel safe living in an area of the country that doesn’t fit their politics. It could be rather frightening.

If it were, God forbid, to happen, I would guess that a Second American Civil War will begin between Certification Day 2025 and Inauguration Day 2025. In other words, as Trump is being sworn in, mass chaos will have erupted across the United States.

Once the hollowed out American military turns it attention to the Blue rebellion at the behest of Trump, it won’t be too long before WMD are sized and used by both sides. Not only would America bomb itself into oblivion with its eyes wide open, but it will be done in the context of WW3 definitely breaking out across the globe because the US will be too busy imploding to ensure the continuation of the post WW2 global order.

How’s that for a New World Order.

So, here goes. Here’s how the individual states would handle A Second American Civil War, probably starting in late 2024 when it becomes clear that Reds are going to brazenly steal the election. I don’t think this is going to happen — I think we’re just going to slip peacefully into autocracy — but it is at least possible. I’m NOT going to do every state because, lulz, I don’t know the internal politics of each state well enough to do it right.

California

If Blues really decide to have a National Divorce, it will be California that probably is at the forefront serving the papers. And the key issue is — war aims. I think at first the war aims of the Blues will be to simply start, say, the United States of Canada. It will only be much later in any conflict that Blues get sucked into fighting the longer-term goal of maybe establishing the United States of North America. And that would happen because Trumplandia could possible begin a Final Solution for POC within its territory and, as such, the second phase of the civil war would be one of liberation. But that’s extremely speculative on my part.

Everything will hinge on what California wants to do. If it simply wants independence for itself, that’s a lot different war than if it joins with other Blue States to establish a new, larger state. But whatever happens once the 2ACW starts, California will be the “Arsenal of Democracy.” If they want to establish a Blue Union, then California would put itself on a war footing. It would call up a few million young men and women into a new Blue Army and away we go. A lot would depend on the state of the US Military, but the case could be made that it might implode, leaving the individual states with the ability to fend for themselves.

California would quickly secure Oregon and Washington then swoop through the plains states to link up with major Blue States in the old Upper Midwest. They would crash into Texas in the south and that would be a Battle Royale, though it’s possible because Texas is shifting blue that Texas might simply implode into an intra-state civil war and Blues could secure the state a lot easier than one might otherwise expect.

But the point is — as goes California, so goes the Blue Union cause.

Texas
Texas is a state that is really difficult to game out because while MAGA has turned into a Red stronghold, on the ground, the state is shifting Blue long term. As such, when our national politics finally collapses and we’re dealing with the existential it’s possible that Texas will simply implode. There could be a massive intra-state civil war that leaves it open to Blue Union forces from the West to swoop in and take it over. Or, at least, a lot of it over. But between when the civil war starts and when Blue Union troops come to the rescue, we could all be talking about the Siege of Austin as MAGA surrounds that particular blue dot in a purple state and want to wipe it off the face of the earth.

In a sense, Texas probably has the most to loose from a 2ACW. Texas would probably be the site of a huge amount of fighting as the difference between the Blue shift in the state’s practical politics slams up against the autocratic state government. Or, put another way, Texas is a lot less stable than you might think. It will likely be the source of a huge amount of domestic political refugees who will either endup in camps, or simply flee the state altogether, only to return when (hopefully) Blues win the civil war and there’s a Second Reconstruction.

Oregon
The thing about this state is it’s ripe for a huge clusterfuck. Of all the places in the Union in the lead up to any potential 2ACW, Oregon is the state I could most likely see some sort of “Troubles” taking place. There could be a pretty bloody Battle of Portland as all the crazed Far Right Militia’s swoop down on the city and decide to end the “Antifa Problem” once and for all. Then, of course, there’s pretty good chance that all of that will be for naught when California troops come from the south and consolidate Blue control over the state. Not that it won’t come at a very, very blood cost. But California is just too powerful not to be able to seize both Oregon and Washington in the early stages of any 2ACW. Even if California simply wants to go it alone, the mass chaos of Oregon might pull them into the state for some sort of peacekeeping mission.

The Plains States

Outside of Texas, the Plaines states may see their fates during a 2ACW largly out of their hands. They could shift from Blue to Red and back again as the two sides fight it out. They have small populations and economies and if California wants to link up with Blue States in the old Upper Midwest, then, they may see their extremely Red politics change in a rather abrupt, violent manner. These states are an example of why it would be so dumb for Red States to want a civil war — the values of small plains states are being forced upon Blue States and Blues aren’t really doing anything about it. But if there was a civil war, the Red Plains States would be forced to change their ways rather quickly.

The Old CSA (At least some of it.)
At first, a number of states of the old CSA would explode into joy if there was a 2ACW. States like Mississippi, Alabama and South Carolina would have you believe they are already half way out of the Union as it is because of the evil libtard “groomers” and, as such, if Blue States left the Union the populations of the old CSA states would be very, very happy. But. And this is a big but, as the war progressed and everything went to shit there would be a natural inclination on the part of white Christians in these states to make POC scape goats. There would be a rapid radicalization of the politics of these states to the point that something akin to a race war might break out. Or, if not that, then at least Nazi-style concentration camps would be established with the aim of enacting a Final Solution once and for all. This would, in turn freak the Blue States out to the point that even if they were free of the United States, they might rejoin the battle simply to stop the Final Solution from happening. This is all extremely speculative, of course, but I’m simply gaming out what already exists and then assume the worse.

Florida
I used to think that Florida would break up into about three states, given how diverse it is, but no more. I think it would be a fully autocratic state under DeSantis — even if he was POTUS at this point — and a lot of young men from Florida would face up against young men (and women) from California as the war progressed and got worse and worse for everyone concerned. The already fucked up politics of Florida would grow significantly more radical to the point that it was a one party fascist state.

Georgia
The thing about Georgia is Atlanta. If there was a 2ACW, then it’s possible that within the state it would be Atlanta versus everyone else. Atlanta would be a very Blue stronghold and the rest of the state would be so Red that it could all get very bloody. Of course, Blue forces from outside the state could swoop in at some point and help take stabilize the situation.

Virginia
As I’ve said the last time I wrote this scenario up, Virginia is two states that hate each other. Of all the states of the Union that might find destruction as part of a 2ACW, Virginia is at the top of the list — even more so than Texas. The state would collapse into coups and counter coups. The rural Red parts of the state would go all Pol Pot on the Blue parts of the state and there would be a lot of political scores settled by extremely radicalized rural Reds who wanted to make sure drag queens of the woke cancel culture mob could never teach their kids critical race theory again. I wish I was joking or exaggerating, but I’m not.

Heartland

The so-called “American Heartland” is where the worst fighting of any 2ACW would take place. States like Ohio and Indiana would be diehard supporters of Trumplandia and they just would not go down without a fight. It would be the type of fighting not seen since the end of WW2. And it would be happening in what was once the most stable country in the world. As I’ve mentioned, a lot would depend on what Blue war aims were. If they just wanted to start the USoC, then my dark fears probably won’t happen. But if, for some reason, those war aims change and the issue becomes bringing the US back together again (probably with Canada by this point) then, well, all bets are off. It would be a very bloody pitched battle.

New York City

A 2ACW might be a tale of two cities for NYC. On one hand, there’s a chance NYC could become something akin to a Free City and on the other it could get nuked by Trumplandia. Any 2ACW would probably see the city flooded with refugees, maybe even including yours truly. But one thing is for sure — the long term tension between Upstate New York and NYC will grow in the event of a 2ACW to the point that NYC may break away politically in some way. Update New York has a lot of room for political refugees and, as such, you could see the population of some of the Update New York cities might balloon as a result.

New England
I think in the even of a 2ACW that New England would be flooded with political refugees to an unprecedented extent. People fleeing all parts of Trumplandia would go to New England, potentially in hopes of getting across the border to Canada. Should the Blue Union unite with Canada, then, of course, that dynamic would change.

In closing, I would note three things. There’s not going to be a 2ACW if Blues don’t have any leadership. They currently have no effective leadership, so a lot of abrupt heroes would have to bubble up to the surface once it became clear that Blues had to leave the Union. Also, all of what I’ve described above has to be taken into the context of very real possibility that WMD would be used by both sides as the war progressed. And, remember, if the United States is too busy bombing itself into oblivion, then the prospect of a “Great Reset” in the guise of WW3 is a very, very real possibility.

Future Shock: Will The Chatbot Revolution Turn MAGA Into Neo-Luddites?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It remains an open question if we face a “perfect storm” of a Petite Singularity happening at the same time as the United States faces the existential choice of autocracy, civil war or military junta in late 2024, early 2025. But regardless if that happens or not, there is chance that at some point in the near future something akin to a neo-Luddite movement may arise in the Western World. It could be everything from demands for “carve outs” that would exclude AI from certain jobs all the way to outlawing AGI altogether.

It will all start with, of course, a huge amount of anger over perceived “chatbot bias.” All signs point towards that particular political situation happening a lot sooner than you might think. The MAGA outrage machine is always on the lookout for something new to be angry about and the idea that ChatGPT doesn’t spit out an answer to “What is a woman” that doesn’t agree with MAGA talking points is just too juicy not for a huge outcry to happen.

It’s just a matter of when, specifically, that particular event is going to happen. At the moment, I suspect is could be at some point during the Republican primary. If there is a townhall event and some rando stands up and starts to rant about how ChatGPT won’t “write a poem praising Donald Trump” then, lulz, away we go.

I do think, however, that there is a real risk that the looming chatbot revolution is going to throw American politics for a loop, especially if, say, 3 million high paying blue collar transportation jobs go poof overnight because of AI and self-driving semis.

What is most likely to happen is a massive restructuring of the economy because of AI would happen in the context of a moderate to severe recession. Or, more ominously, the moderate-to-severe recession would happen BECAUSE of the AI revolution. If it happen too fast, our political system simply won’t be able to process it and we could see the very rapid rise of a neo-Luddite movement, probably happening within the ranks of the already existing MAGA.

Climate Change Deniers Have Enraged Me To The Point That I Feel Compelled to Begin A Second, Concurrent (Scifi) Novel

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I started my this six novel project a number of years ago because MAGA enraged me so much that I needed some sort of creative outlet for my rage. Well, now that the second draft of my first novel is pretty stable, I’ve decided to begin to work on a scifi novel that addresses global climate change directly.

I’ve come up with a pretty unique hot take on the issue and I also get to rant about MAGA via subtext. With this second novel, I’m going to do a quick and dirty first draft. The key reason why I’ve decided to start this second track is now that I am beginning to approach the stage in attempting to get this novel traditionally published where things are somewhat out of my control, I want a backup.

That and the fact that my first novel definitely seems like it’s going to blow past the 100,000 word sweetspot. So, the thinking goes, if I have a novel that is well within the 100,000 sweetspot, I might be able to sell it FIRST, then leverage selling THAT novel to sell the thriller novel I’ve been working on all this time.

I suppose I’m being very delusional with such thinking, but that’s kind of my thing, being delusional. Anyway, I think I’ve figured out how I’m going to pull this off. I’m just going to do a quick and dirty outline for this global climate change scifi novel and then start writing as quickly as possible to write an equally quick and dirty first draft of the novel.

Struggling To Understand The Nature of Being ‘Woke’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The fucked up thing about the battle over the “woke cancel culture mob” is MAGA actively works to obfuscate as to what exactly it means to be “woke.” They do this because they know the moment they make it a concrete concept, the center-Left will have something to latch on to so they can refute what MAGA proposes.

So, for the sake political expediency in the mind of MAGA being “woke” means everything and nothing. In short, MAGA just uses their hatred of the “woke” to put forth a general feeling of unease about bad “vibes” in America. I find this extremely fucking frustrating because it’s yet another sign of how broken political discourse in the United States is and how we continue to careen towards the existential choice in late 2024, early 2025 of autocracy, civil war or military junta.

The thing that we all have to let sink in is — the battle over the “woke cancel culture mob” is part of a broader collapse in American politics. At the moment, America has some serious small dick energy about it that comes in no small part from how we’ve reached a certain level of ossification of our institutions because, well, lulz, not enough white babies are being born. (I hope the droll nature of that statement comes across.)

Because of the so-called “birth dearth” you have people who should know better — conservative Traditionalists — who want to ban abortion and are willing to embrace fascism. If you combine the “birth dearth” with pretty bad income inequality then…oh boy are we fucked. Either you are hysterical because America is becoming a majority minority country or you — like me — embrace this new era as just a part of macro trends that none of us have any power over.

Something really bad is about to happen in the United States between now and the spring of 2025. It could be something as dramatic as a civil war or a military junta….or it could be something as subtle as a peaceful drift into autocracy. I say this because, by definition, the next Republican president is going to be an autocrat. The Constitution is going to be changed. The existing ICE camp infrastructure will be weaponized and loudmouth cranks like me who fucking hate MAGA will probably just go poof!

The thing about is, I find some of the more dumb extremes of “wokness” rather ridiculous because all it does is drive Traditionalists further into the arms of fascists. But this age of hyper negative polarization is such I am in something of a corner — MAGA expects me to defend the most extreme elements of the “woke cancel culture mob” just because I hate MAGA.

It’s all very frustrating.

A Hot Take On The Rational Security Podcast’s Hot Take On The ChatBot Revolution

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

With the advent of the rouge jailbreak of ChatGPT called “DAN,” I was taken aback by how alarmed Benjamín Wittes was about the downsides of chatbot technology. While, in principle, I agree with him, what is interesting is, in a sense, his concerns are the flip side of the anger that MAGA has about “chatbot bias.”

What people like Wittes want is for chatbots to be “objective” relative to what the Establishment believes is acceptable. For me, that “objective” bias would lead to chatbot answers that seemed pretty blase. And, yet, given the hyper partisan world we live in these days, the very thing that Wittes wants is the very thing that drives MAGA batshit insane.

There are no easy answers to this particular problem. The issue is MAGA is hateful and if they don’t get their poem praising the fascist Trump then they freak out and want to burn the country to the ground. If there is any solution to this particular problem it will come when everyone has their own personalized chatbot and if they want a hateful chatbot to spew their own hate back at them, then they can get that.

But, as I keep saying, there is a real risk that we’re going to have to sort out the issue of civil war (and WW3) or autocracy before we get to the point where there is a chatbot revolution at all. While I am worried about a perfect storm of a chatbot revolution happening at the same time as that existential crisis of autocracy or civil war around 2024 – 2025, maybe it will be closer to 2030 that we have address the chatbot revolution.

So, the issue is — what is an “objective” answer on the part of a chatbot when there is no “objective” truth because we’re so absolutely partisan that we can’t even agree what is real. I suppose it was just curious that I could see, in real time, the thinking that led Google to slow walk releasing any chatbot in the first place.

MAGA wants a chatbot that spews out MAGA talking points about controversial issues like, “What is a woman?” If they don’t get the answer they expect as to “What is a woman” they freak the fuck out. All of this is happening the context the battle over “What is woke” when most people who scream about this or that being “woke” means in the first place.

Will A.I. Lead To The End Of The Knowledge Economy?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It definitely seems as though we’re lurching towards a future in which the looming A.I. revolution is going to consume the knowledge economy. What’s worse, we could very well face something of a Perfect Storm in late 2024, early 2025 in which we experience a Petite Singularity at the same moment the United States may face the existential choice between civil war or MAGA-themed autocratic rule.

Now, I suppose it’s possible that the Peite Singularity could be punted down the road a few years as we address the whole autocracy or civil war conundrum which might also happen in the context of a potential Third World War. In that case, it would be similar to what happened with TV and WW2.

But there are two issues we have to think seriously about now.

One is, the need to mull the need for a Universal Basic Income. If virtually all knowledge economy jobs become moot, there’s going to be a need for a UBI. The whole issue of UBI could come rushing towards at such an abrupt speed that we won’t have any way to process properly. Our politics are already broken to the point of crisis that the added weight of having to figure out UBI may be too much for it. It could very well be we just don’t have the wherewithal or political will to institute a UBI in the first place.

Meanwhile, there is the risk that MAGA will be replaced with some sort of neo-Luddite movement that will be a direct reaction to the rise of AI. If 3 million high paying transportation jobs go poof! overnight, then the idea of a neo-Luddite movement definitely becomes a very real possibility.

One thing that is going to be interesting to see is if even journalism is transformed to the point that we get all our news from AI. That seems like a very dangerous situation going forward. If we defer things like journalism and law to A.I. there is a real risk that catastrophe might strike us.

It will be interesting to see how things progress. I just don’t think we’re ready for what is on the cusp of happening.

Watch Me Waste Time Speculating About First Contact Because of That Dumb Balloon That Was Shot Down

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

While it definitely would put a pep in my step if First Contact happened because the U.S. Government shutdown what it thought was a Chinese spy balloon over Alaska, I find the entire idea very, very dubious. So, to that extent, what I’m writing at this very moment is a huge waste of time.

But, lulz, I have a little spare time on my hands, let’s waste time and imagine what the consequences of First Contact might be in this situation.

First, I would note that America is so divided that I can’t even have a jovial conversation about this dumb story with my Traditionalist relatives because the story would inevitably pivot a pitched rhetorical battle over Biden not shooting down the first balloon. It’s all very sad.

Anyway, what makes this particular incident different is there is wreckage to inspect. So, theoretically, once we have an opportunity to examine that wreckage we will know one way or another what the fuck was shot down. Now, if it was of non-terrestrial origin, the natural inclination of the U.S. Government would be to classify the whole thing and act like nothing happened.

So, if there was anything of note about the object shot down out of the ordinary, then the U.S. Government would be in something of a sticky wicket. If they classify everything — for any reason — then a thousand conspiracies are born. Meanwhile, if they tell what really happened — if it is not human — we face a rather abrupt First Contact.

The reason why this particular situation would be different is it wouldn’t be an abstract — there would be actual evidence that aliens have the technology to traverse the vast expanse of space to reach earth. The implications of that would definitely be a Day The Earth Stood Still moment.

The idea that not only are we Not Alone, but aliens have the technology to reach the humanity would be staggering.

Of course, if we learned that the balloon was actually some sort of alien probe, the wreckage would instantly be the most valuable in human history and there would be calls to turn it over to the UN (or whatever.) Then you have a huge battle over Who Owns It and who Gets To Study It.

I have my doubts that there would be any violence if we did have First Contact. And I suspect that instead of unifying humanity, we’re probably just going to be even more divided as different powers demand look at the wreckage.

In other words, everything sucks.

I will note, however, that I have a feeling that given all the weird things we’re learning (with no explanation) about what’s going on in skies around the globe. It’s at least possible that some sort of ETs are doing regular looky-loos of humanity, we just haven’t managed to shoot them down.

Of AI & Dave Chappelle

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Something about how Twitch freaked out over how the AI generated Seinfeld “forever episode” said some pretty dumb anti-gay, anti-liberal and anti-trans jokes I find alarming. It’s not so much the jokes themselves that are at issue, but the idea that there was such a kneejerk reaction when it came to something dumb that an AI did.

Dave Chappelle

I’m extremely sex-positive and I honestly don’t give a shit what you do with your body as long as everyone is of age and it’s consensual. Love is love and all that. What bothers me is this incident feeds into the MAGA narrative that the “woke cancel culture mob” wants to turn everyone gay.

It’s already a struggle for me to talk to me Traditionalist relatives about ANYTHING without having to spend 10 minutes hearing from them about how the “woke cancel culture mob” wants to “groom” little kids. It’s all part of the broader “Gay Scare” that we’ve been living through the last few years. It sucks, yes, but that doesn’t change that there are are well meaning Christians who still think being gay is a “sin” and no longer believe in democracy because of the “gay agenda” of “woke people.”

What if the AI was, instead of doing rather bland Seinfeld-like jokes was programmed to do a never-ending Dave Chappelle-like set? It seems in today’s “woke” environment that that would be damn near an impossible thing to do. All of this is very corrosive and makes me fear that when the time comes in late 2024, early 2025 that it will be a near foregone conclusion that the United States will either slip peacefully into autocracy or have a National Divorce that prompts a civil war.

This is also sort of a quintessential “chatbot bias” issue. The very thing that the “woke cancel culture mob” freaks out about — telling jokes about gay people — is the very thing that MAGA wants to wallow in. And if they can’t get an AI to write a poem praising Trump, they’re going to want regulation to force the issue. Remember, Trump to this day crows over how he was able to get people to say “Merry Christmas” instead of “Happy Holidays.”

So, chatbot “bias” is just the sort of thing that MAGA is going to scream about at the top of their lungs at some point in the very near future. It could be just a matter of days before Trump or DeSantis picks up the “chatbot bias” standard and starts to scream about how this is just another thing that the “woke cancel culture mob” want to use to “groom” little kids to be gay.

UGH.

These are macro trends were dealing with and there really is nothing we can do about it. Either American democracy survives the 2024 presidential cycle, or it doesn’t. In other words — we’re fucked.

It Was A Long Time Ago & Nobody Cares Anymore

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about my time in South Korea as an expat is, for one brief shining moment I was a somebody. I felt like I lived up to my “potential” because I was not only DJing at the best expat bar in Seoul, I was — at one point — the publisher of the only English language magazine in the city.

The events that left me emotionally kneecapped all happened in the course of a less than a year from late 2006 to early 2007, though there was an extended epilogue that would finally see everything come crashing down in February 2008.

I’m really leaning into my very, very romanticized memories of my time as an expat to flesh out a six novel project that is meant to be something of an allegory about the Trumplandia Era.

The thing that is growing more and more alarming is, of course, the fact that I’m no longer young. My looming 50th birthday is causing me no end of existential angst. Now that I finally have both ambition and motivation I’m kind of stuck with one clear path as to how to pull myself out of oblivion — stick the landing when it comes to writing my first novel.

But even then, even under the best of circumstances, it could very well be in my mid-50s before I actually see any sort of improvement in my lot. And, as I keep saying, if I get what I want, I don’t get what I want. I could write a successful breakout first novel and I’ll be so old that I won’t be able to date 24 year olds and become a smug “bi-costal” Twitter liberal who looks down on the Poors of middle America from first class on my way to LA or NYC.

I suppose some of all of this is coming from how I’m finally transitioning from the wilfully delusional stage of working on this novel to the point where I kind of have to sit up straight and take things a lot more seriously. Publishing is an industry and me being delusional just isn’t going to cut it in the world of the cold hard metrics of actually getting a novel traditionally published.

Anyway.

The point is — I still have a lingering desire to return to Asia for at least one visit before I drop dead. It’s not going to be anything like I remember and, in fact, it might just be really boring. A lot of the reason why I think about Seoul so much says more about my dissipated youth than it does what actually happened in Seoul.

Ugh.