Category: The Resistance

Not Great, Bob

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’ve decided that tonight will be my New Year’s Eve and I’m quite intoxicated. It seems the issue of the moment is the 14th Amendment says what it says.


And, yet, we all know that ding-dong Trump is going to weasel his way back on the ballot on all 50 states. So, lulz? I don’t know what to tell you. There are no easy answers — apparently even, “What was the Civil War about” is no longer an easy answer.

I have to go back to how totally fucked up the whole situation is. We all know that Trump should be banned from the ballet given the wording of the 14th Amendment, and, yet, here we are, having a pissing match over the exact wording of the words that clearly say ding-dong Trump should not be allowed on the ballet.

Whatever. No one listens to me. Barring something pretty astonishing, we’re going to have to deal with two old guys fighting it out in 2024.

Nikki Haley Has A Problem

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


That this is such a big issue in modern day America says a lot about how fucked up everything is. The Civil War was about slavery. And, yet, here we are — fighting over it and relitigating it because, I dunno, modern Republicans are cowards who want to pretend the Civil War was about anything but slavery?


The question is, will this really matter? I have my doubts. When the Republican front runner is a fascist, it’s possible that this gaff on Haley’s part won’t really mean anything. And she did escape giving the type of answer that would hurt her in the Republican primaries.

Only time will tell, I suppose.

The 20 Million Body Problem

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

While I totally validate the idea that there is a “crisis at the border,” I do have a problem with anyone who suggests we try to deport all those people en mass overnight. Not only would you would have to spend billions to build out the existing ICE infrastructure, but you’re setting yourself up for a huge amount of abuse by doing so.

There are just a huge number of problems with trying to deport 20 million undocumented people. You thought tearing families apart at the border was bad, just wait until its 20 million people who have contributed a great deal to the country over the last 20 or more years.

And I simply don’t believe people who scoff at the idea that the new, greatly expanded ICE infrastructure would not be horribly abused. You would have to be prepared to “check the papers” of people on a regular basis. That would be a fundimental change in how everyday Americans interacted with the government.

The whole endeavor would make the country a lot — A LOT — more unstable. The economy would collapse and the fabric of the country would be torn to shreds. And, yet, here we are, with ding-dong Trump seriously talking about deporting 20 million people.

Like I said, I accept that there is a crisis at the border, but I would prefer to come up with some solution other than destroying our freedoms to address the issue.

Are We Totally Overestimating Trump’s Political Viability?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I only write any of this because, well, no one can predict the future. But it is at least within the realm of possibility that Trump’s moment has come and gone and, as such, he won’t even be the Republican nominee.

Now, absolutely nothing points to this at the moment other than Nikki Haley surging in the polls. And, really, it definitely seems as though no matter what, because of the cult-like obsession with Trump on the part of MAGA that even if she over performs in Iowa and New Hampshire, she would crash and burn once we reach Southern states.

And this doesn’t even begin to address how Trump will probably run as a third party candidate if somehow, miraculously, Haley manages to be a political giant slayer.

But, as I have said — I can’t predict the future. And while Haley is Not Great relative to my political POV, she at least seems like someone who will stay within democratic norms.

Only time will tell, I suppose.

For the time being, it definitely seems as though it will be Biden versus Trump again and, well, Godspeed.

‘close to a second Civil War’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Someone came to this site using the title of this blog post as a search query and so I will answer the question as best I can. For me, in late 2023, the question of if we are “close to a second Civil War” is just too profound to accurately predict. But I can give you two scenarios whereby one might happen.

  1. Trump Loses
    In this scenario, Trump loses, but rather than slinking off into political oblivion, he starts to scream at the top of his lungs for the need for a National Divorce, and as such, a civil war. States like Texas call up secessionist conventions and away we go.
  2. Trump Wins
    In this scenario, Trump wins, goes full tyrant and is deposed in some way. Either through impeachment and conviction or the U.S. Military. This makes the Red States furious and they head for the exits, which, in turn, causes a civil war.

    It’s kind of a “pick your poison” situation at this point.

    But there is always the chance that either Trump loses the nomination and, lulz, it ends there or he loses the general and, lulz, it ends there. There is always a chance that if he loses the nomination that he will run as a Third Party candidate and if he doesn’t win, he will demand a National Divorce.

Is Nikki Haley In It To Win It?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As we enter the primaries, we find ourselves in something of a quandary. Trump continues to support extremely unpopular things — like getting rid of Obamacare — and we all just shrug as if he’s some sort of unstoppable political force.

But what if he’s not?

At the moment, this is crazy to even suggest, but what if the polls are wrong and Nikki Haley manages to become a viable contender to Trump? The best case scenario for her, as of late 2023, is she shocks everyone in the early states, gets to be a media darling until Super Tuesday…and then it’s over.

There will be talk of her being Trump’s veep, but, ultimately, he picks some crazed MAGA half-wit who will be just as bad, if not worse, than he is should they ever become POTUS.

But this does raise the issue of what happens if Trump either isn’t the nominee or he loses in the fall. If he’s not the nominee, then think he runs third party and tries to win in the House when no one reaches 270. If he doesn’t win as the Republican nominee…oh boy. I still worry that he’ll scream bloody murder about the need for a National Divorce and, as such, a civil war.

Pondering A Third Trump Impeachment

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The more I think about it, the more I realize that by definition a Trump second term would be extremely unstable. I say this because first of all, all the tyrannical things Trump wants to do won’t happen in a political vacuum in either political direction — Left or Right.

First of all, there will be a lot of vocal anti-anti-Trump people who will rationalize any tyrannical thing Trump does in 2025 by saying, “the people have spoken.” Meanwhile, if Trump really abuses power in a tyrannical way, anti-Trump forces will have two possible reactions at their disposal — impeachment or somehow deposing Trump using the power of the U.S. Military. (NOT ADVOCATING ANYTHING.)

Impeachment would hinge on if Democrats won the House or not in 2024. And people would have to get REALLY WORKED UP even then. So, in a sense, the difference between politically removing Trump via impeachment and overthrowing him via a military coup would not really be all that different. In both instances, you would probably have to organize a General Strike to get the point across AND there is a good chance that Red States would begin to leave the Union in protest.

So, I dunno what to tell you. Hopefully, things won’t get so bad. Hopefully, something will happen and Trump will just scurry away into political oblivion.

The Warped Nature of American Politics Is Enough to Make You Throw Up Your Hands In Dismay

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We live in strange times. My far more conservative relative — whom I love dearly — really lives in a totally different universe than I do. They have a pretty well thought-out series of talking points that he has been fed through all the Right-wing podcasts they listen to.

They think all the investigations into Trump are nothing more than “lawfare.” They think the economy is horrible. They think the armies of Russia and China are soooo much more powerful than ours because they’re not “woke.” I tried my best to point out how wrong all of that was on a strictly factual basis, but I don’t know how successful I was.

The point remains — the proof will be in the pudding should Trump get re-elected and he start to do things that are so totally bonkers that even Traditionalists who are “MAGA curious” will sit up and take notice. If Trump goes full tyrant to the point that Traditionalists — who otherwise love, love, love his policies — throw up their hands in disgust…everyone, not just Trump, will have a real problem on their hands.

That is crux of the issue going forward — is there *any* red line that Traditionalists will have should the time come? Is there *any* tyrannical thing that Trump might do that will cause them to say, “enough is enough” and support whatever last-ditch direct action might be thought up to get rid of Trump?

The entirety of the American democratic experience hinges on what Traditionalists decide at that point.

The ‘Vibsession’ Is Real In The Minds Of MAGA

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Another holiday season, another polite, but heated, debate with my far more conservative relative. It is clear to me that the center-Right and the center-Left in the US live in totally different realities now.

While I’m not suggesting that the U.S. economy is perfect, in general, it’s doing quite well in relative terms. But to hear my conservative relative talk, you’d think we were in the middle of a Second Great Depression. I finally had to make it clear that I actually had facts to back me up, if need be, just like they had all these fact about how horrible COVID lockdowns were.

This is a prime example of how fucked we are going into the 2024 election. It could be that we’re so divided that even though the economy is doing generally well enough people on the center-Right will be wrapped up in the “vibesession” that Trump will come roaring back.

And I don’t think we really appreciate how fucking bad a second Trump administration will be. It will far, far worse than any of us could possibly imagine. The key issue is, of course, what the reaction of the average person will be when Trump starts snatching people off the streets.

Who knows.

The Russians (Think They Are) Coming (In Late 2024, Early 2025)

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

At least one notable Russian thinks that the U.S. will be so “leaderless” in late 2024, early 2025 that they can strike Europe with impunity. While if you were to read this blog on a regular basis, you might think that was *possible*, even I have my doubts.

The two main scenarios facing us are Trump wins and there’s a major re-alignment of the global order and Trump loses and we somehow have a civil war. There is a third, less likely scenario, whereby Trump loses and…nothing happens.

I can’t predict the future. I have no idea what is going to happen. But I am worried that Something Big will happen in late 2024, early 2025. Does that mean Russia will be able to invade Europe at will? I dunno about THAT. But I do think it’s at least *possible* that there will be so much mass chaos taking place in late 2024, early 2025 for various Trump-related reasons that, yeah, maybe.

But the U.S. Military so powerful that even if Russia attacked, say, Poland, we could still put a hurting on Russia, even if the rest of the military was being force into an untenable situation by ding-dong Trump.

Yet, let me be clear — I can’t predict the future. It’s possible that the coming year will be rather meh or something unexpected will happen that will punt our problems down the road another four years.