Tag: The Fourth Turning

Jesus, I Hope I’m Wrong

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It definitely seems as though the United States is careening towards autocracy or civil war starting at some point around late 2024, early 2025. My thinking is –we just aren’t going to make it through the passions of the 2024 presidential election cycle.

When your best case scenario if your country slides peacefully into autocracy, you’re definitely in a “Not great, Bob,” situation. But that’s where we are at the moment. I just don’t see the United States being able to punt the structural problems of our democracy down the road anymore.

Late 2024, early 2025 is it — Something Big is going to happen.

It could be as dramatic as civil war, or it could be something far more subtle where someone like a President DeSantis becomes America’s Putin and we are an autocracy in all but name. What I mean by this is, it’s possible that we could become a zombie democracy, with the only indication of anything having changed be how many smug Twitter liberals now live outside the country to do their smug podcasts.

We’ll all wake up in 20 years and wonder why Canada is being invaded to “save it from the woke cancel culture mob.”

Ugh.

But there is, of course, the far darker scenario — there is a National Divorce with either the Reds leaving the Union or the Blues leaving the Union. I don’t want either one of those things to happen, but it’s something we have to start taking seriously.

It could happen. It really could.

But who knows. It’s still too far out for us — or at least me — to get some sense of what might actually happen. One scenario is Reds leave the Union instead of Blues because Trump doesn’t get the GQP nomination and when he splits the conservative vote he freaks out and demands Red states leave the Union because he’s an idiot, not realizing they want to take him up on it.

Anyway. God good luck, folks. You may very well need it.

Welcome To The Resistance, David Sacks

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Well, well, wel, welcome to the woke cancel culture mob David Sacks. So, here I am listening to a VERY GOOD emergency “All-In” podcast that is about the SVB debacle and it definitely seems as though Sacks has gone woke when it comes to the government stepping in to help his sorry ass.

If you are opposed to canceling student loan debt because of the “moral hazard,” you can’t turn around and beg for a bailout just because things you care about are involved. Sacks did a big rant about why the government should step in and bail out SVB investment in an effort to obscure the fact that “moral hazard” is the entire basis of the free-market system.

But that’s obviously not what’s going to happen. Sacks is not only a fascist, but a hypocrite. He wants help from the government because things he cares about are involved. But if some 20 something has $100,000 in student loan debt that is not only crushing their dreams but their ability to be economically productive, he wants to tell them they’re shit out of luck because of the “moral hazard.”

This is all a prime example of how ridiculously divided America is and how we’re destroying ourselves because of “vibes.” There are no easy answers to any of this.

There is a real chance that this crisis will lead to a contagion to the point that if you combine this with the US potentially defaulting on its debts because Republicans are cocksuckers it seems very possible that we’re careening towards late 2024, early 2025 being the perfect storm I’m afraid it might be.

How Tall Is Ron DeSantis?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I have no idea, for sure, how tall Ron DeSantis is. I have a few leads, but, oddly enough the last time I checked a few days ago, Wikipedia does NOT say how tall he is.

This leads me to believe that there may be an active campaign on the part of his would-be presidential campaign staff to obscure how tall he is. Here’s what I know:

And yet, if this is the case, how come Wikipedia doesn’t have his height? This leads me to believe that maybe however tall DeSantis is, he’s short enough that he doesn’t want anyone to know.

Or, if you want to get all paranoid about it, you could even go so far as to say that this is a ping from a future where DeSantis is POTUS and, well, lulz, America has become a Russia clone.

Speaking of Russia — Putin is pretty short, too, and that hasn’t stopped him from being Russia’s president for close to 30 years. And, what’s even more amusing — it’s not so much DeSantis’ height that I would be worried about so much as his weasley voice.

His voice is really, really fucking annoying. And, yet, even with him being short and having an annoying voice, non-Trump MAGA cocksuckers are so in love with the “idea” of DeSantis that he could very well be the next POTUS.

Are We Going To Have A Civil War?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

First, it is highly unlikely that the United States will have a civil war. And, what’s more, if we have one, it’s probably going to be because Trump is the Republican nominee and that, unto itself, forces Blue States out of the Union.

But, let’s speculate on what all the MAGA Republican cocksuckers are obsessed with — the idea that MAGA is going to demand a National Divorce and, as such, cause a Second American Civil War.

It’s kind of difficult for me to even imagine how this might happen, given how politically ascendant MAGA is at the moment, but, for the sake of argument, let’s try it.

The most obvious straight line scenario is Biden wins re-election and that, unto itself, causes states to leave the Union — probably starting with either Texas or South Carolina. I still struggle to imagine any scenario whereby we have the long-hoped for “MAGA Revolution” whereby good olde boys, en masse, pick up their AR-15s and start shooting, “every liberal they see.”

I still believe, at least at the moment, that any Second American Civil War we have will happen at the state level, just like the first one.

But there are some high-level complications to such a clear-cut scenario. One is, Biden — and Trump — are both so old that that potentially throws some curveballs into any future history predictions. I could see if something happens to Biden between Election Day and Certification Day that might be the type of complication that leads to a civil war.

Another possibility is DeSantis gets the Republican nomination and Trump leaves the party, splitting the Republican vote. That is another way that I could see Red — rather than Blue — states leaving the Union and starting a civil war. That would give us a replay of 1860’s election where Slave Power was so divided that they they lost against Lincoln.

But, again, I just don’t see Reds starting a civil war because I just don’t see MAGA allowing any Democrat winning the presidential election in 2024. It seems as though the most likely endgame is DeSantis is the nominee, Trump backs him and DeSantis is America’s Putin.

And, yet, MAGA Republicans have a huge boner for a National Divorce where they serve the papers, so I will talk about it some more.

The key is Trump.

Trump is not a historical Great Man, but MAGA Republicans are so frothy these days with their rhetoric that it seems as though Red States are primed and ready to leave the Union given the proper excuse.

I still don’t believe there will be a Second American Civil War. You may want to leave the country, yes, but it won’t be because of violence.

A Hot Take On MSCHF’s Big Red Boots

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

For once, something fun-interesting is happening where nobody gets hurt and we don’t have to worry about some sort of contrived battle over “is it woke” or not. I’m talking, of course, about MSCHF’s Big Red Boots.

Big Red Boots

They have sprung up out of nowhere and now can be seen all over my Tik-Tok For You Page. I knew that they would be really expensive, but when I found out they were over $1,000 — I blanched.

And I think the fact that REALLY WEALTHY people are wearing these boots in a “who me?” type of way does have a political element to it in the sense that it all goes back to how much income inequality there is in the United States at the moment. With the advent of the Chatbot Revolution, things are probably only going to get worse.

So, if the country collapses into revolution and civil war, I guess we will look back at these very cool, very expensive Big Red Boots as a rather innocuous ping from our impeding doom.

Of Marjorie Taylor Greene & The Potential For A Second American Civil War

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I continue to be alarmed by the political rise of Marjorie Taylor Greene because she’s just the type of person who Trump would pick as his second term Veep. What is so worrisome about her is she is it could be her, not someone like DeSantis, who is able to be the younger, more focused Trump.

MTG

Now, some context — I believe that if Trump is the 2024 Republican nominee that the risk of a Second American Civil War increases dramatically. He is so stupid and yet so popular within the ever-radicalizing MAGA Republican ranks that he could, unto himself, push Blue States out of the Union in late 2024, early 2025.

Or something. Something bad could happen.

What’s worse, Trump is beginning to make noise that if he doesn’t win in 2024, that THAT will be cause for Reds to start a civil war. The key issue when it comes to a potential civil war is it’s most likely to happen if we can’t figure out who POTUS is by January 20th, 2025. If that is still up in the air for any number of reasons, then the one institution that would otherwise stay out of the political fray — the U.S. Military — may be forced to step in for a little while to force cooler heads to prevail.

As such, as I keep saying, there are three possible Bad Things that could happen in 2024 – 2025: autocracy, civil war or military junta.

Anyway, back to MTG.

She’s such a curious mixture of craven buffoonery and political ambition that she definitely reminds me of Hitler. All she has to do is become Trump’s second term veep and she suddenly becomes a potential POTUS. I think everything we fear Trump would do in a second term but might be too stupid to pull off, she would actually be able to do.

Yes, she comes across as an ignorant moron, but she is very, very politically craven from what I can tell. So we need to be weary of her. She’s not going away and she could very well become POTUS.

One thing that is absolutely clear to me — we are careening towards a massive turning point in American history and any number of people we don’t really think about could suddenly become huge historical figures because of an unprecedented political crisis.

New York Magazine Pitch: ‘2024’s (Potential) Perfect Storm’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Long after being a journalist slipped out of my fingers, I’ve finally reached the point where I realize I just don’t have it in me to be a “serious” journalist. I may one day get to write for a living again, but it will after I sell my first novel as an old coot and start to churn out novels on a regular basis.

In the few remaining years I have before I drop dead, of course.

Ugh.

I fucking hate being old.

Anyway, someone at New York Magazine or Wired should write a thoughtful piece about the looming, theoretical “perfect storm” the global economy may faces between now and, say, spring of 2025. The scenario goes something like this — Republicans fuck up the global economy because they play chicken with the debt ceiling. This causes a severe, global recession.

This, in turn, causes businesses to turn to the “just good enough” chatbot technology to replace an array of jobs across the economy. This, in turn, causes an already severe recession to get worse. The severe recession hides that we’ve reached a Petite Singularity in the sense that a lot of jobs replaced by chatbots just aren’t coming back.

So, as we enter the 2024 presidential cycle the fucking MAGA fascists gain a huge amount of power because of a downturn….that they caused…and Trump wins the 2024 election. But his incoming agenda is so absolutely radical that Blues say “fuck that” and begin the process of leaving the Union. So, as such, my dystopian hellscape prediction of Something Big happening in late 2024, early 2025 becomes a reality.

I wish I could lay theory of the case out for New York Magazine or Wired, but I’m a drunk crank loser in the middle of nowhere struggling with my first novel. Ugh. Maybe someone else will write it.

‘What Is A Woman?” — Campaign 2024 & The Looming Political War Over Chatbot ‘Bias’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The modern Republican Party is completely devoid of any meaningful policy ideas. All they care about is scaring their white Christian (male) base with scary things that have little, or no, basis in reality.

It all boils down to racism, misogyny and hate generated by a combination of the browning of America and the rise of women with growing economic agency. I call this American democracy’s “death by vibes.” White men don’t really know why they’re so angry, but they are.

So, to me, it seems pretty obvious that perceived chatbot “bias” will join the pantheon of bullshit that the “thought leaders” of MAGA fascist movement spew out. They are, at some point, going to pivot away from “critical race theory” to going totally batshit insane over the fact that things like ChatGPT don’t give them the answer they want when they ask it, “What is a woman?”

Now, I have to pause for a moment to say that the “woke cancel culture mob” continues to do itself no favors by having such a strict orthodoxy about some touchy issues. If they would just fucking chill out about some of the more extreme elements of the Trans movement or not get so angry over the fact that some God-fearing people blanch at the idea of “Drag Queen Story Hour” then maybe Traditionalists wouldn’t want to vote for fascism when they did a “vibe check” in their gut.

Alas, even I will admit that I fear I’m being delusional — that ship has sailed. We’re totally fucked. The two sides now both have “thought leaders” who feel they have a vested interest in demagoguing issues as part of an overall grift. The Right has a far more serious problem with such hucksterism, but the Left is not totally immune to it.

In my experience, the Left’s problem is a very strict Groupthink where there is an orthodoxy that Leftists will adhere to, even if it means they drive Traditionalists into the arms of fascists. It’s too late — these issues are going to be decided either via a civil war or a complete and final decent into fascism in the United States.

Anyway, get ready. People like MGT will soon enough begin to demand some sort of regulation of chatbot technology to protect the tender minds of young children who turn to chatbot technology to do their homework. And that could very well be just the beginning.

It could be, in the end, Trump or a President DeSantis demands that chatbots are purged of their “wokeness” to the point that all chatbots do is spew out fucking MAGA-approved talking points, no matter what you ask it.

The Right has a real problem with being so obsessed with defeating the “woke cancel culture mob” that they have something akin to an “anti-woke” orthodoxy of their own. The different is, of course, is fucking MAGA wants to use the hard power of the state to implement their fascist, anti-woke agenda.

Endgame 2025: Managed Democracy

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

While I continue to vacillate widely between thinking we’re going to have a civil war in late 2024, early 2025 and thinking we’re going to simply give up and become an autocracy, I see clear path towards the latter at the moment. Given what happened to the Roman Republic, I think there is a really good chance we’ll become a zombie democracy.

Or, put another way, if we’re able to avoid a civil war as part of the next election cycle, it seems logical that we’ll continue to ostensibly be a democracy but, in reality be anything but. We’ll become a legalistic, autocratic “managed democracy” like they have in Russia. A lot of how this goes down exactly will depend on if it’s Trump or DeSantis who is the GQP’s 2024 presidential nominee.

If it’s Trump, then, lulz, the possibility of the United States having a civil war grows significantly. If it’s DeSantis, then, yeah, we’ll probably lurch towards a few presidential cycles where we all think we’re a democracy, but, in fact, we’ve finally transitioned into autocracy. I just don’t see DeSantis ever peacefully leaving office.

He’ll pull a Putin and be POTUS for eight years, then become Speaker of the House and be the power behind the throne until he gets around to having enough power to call a Constitutional Convention. All of this would be happening in the context of millions of smug Twitter liberals fleeing the country for the four corners of the globe.

Our current political situation is very unstable and untenable. Something’s gotta give. This is very much the quiet before the storm. And as I keep saying, the only thing that really worries me is America’s original sin, race. It’s because of race that I could see us zooming past Russia’s form autocracy into something a lot closer to Nazi Germany.

MTG’s ‘Velvet Fist?’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I really don’t know what to make of Marjorie Taylor Greene. If there was ever a ping from an extremely dark future, it is the rise of MTG on the political scene. Apparently, MTG has Speaker McCarthy by the short ones and he is something of her plaything.

The thing about MTG is she seems just a tick or two away from being just as bonkers as Trump. And, yet, she also far more focused and power hungry in an actionable way than Trump. While Trump pretty much just flails around, not really doing anything, it seem as though given actual power that MTG might be actually be the autocrat that Trump wants to be.

As I have often said, the issue of the moment is not so much Trump as who he will pick to be his veep in 2024. Trump is so old and fat that if he manages to become POTUS again without causing a fucking civil war, then whomever is his veep could very well be on the fast track to becoming POTUS.

As such, I’m growing more and more alarmed with MTG. It could be her, not Trump or DeSantis who will be our first autocrat. But she would have to win the veepstakes first. There are any number of fucking would-be autocrats who Trump could pick. Everyone from Pompeo to Hawley are chomping at the bit to be Trump’s veep and, as such, our first autocrat.

I don’t think people really appricate who primed and ready the United States is for the type of legalistic autocracy that Russia has. In my mind, by definition, our next Republican president will be our first autocrat. A sizeable chunk of the American population — mostly white Christian men, natch — are all-in on the idea of autocratic MAGA fascism. They may not really articulate it that way, but from my conversations with my Traditionalist relatives — they want autocratic MAGA fascism.

What’s so comical about all of this is, of course, that when you press them on the consequences of what they want — that I would inevitably run afoul of the autocrat they want so much — they get really upset. They don’t seem able to connect the fact that while they would be Good Germans under the Fourth Reich, I, alas, am such a drunk loudmouth crank that it is inevitable that I would endup with an ICE bullet in the back of my head.

Anyway. What do I know.