Tag: The Fourth Turning

2025: Tyrant Trump

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There are a few things we have to take into consideration before we think about Trump’s second term. The first is, we have to work on the basic assumption that Trump is simply going to ignore the Supreme Court if they rule in any way he doesn’t like.

So, if he fires several hundred thousand civil servants using his Schedule F idea, then, lulz, he’ll just do it no matter how much SCOTUS rules against him. He will invoke Andrew Jackson and go about his business.

Another issue we have to think about is the total fucking chaos Trump is going to cause when he begins to build out the infrastructure necessary to put millions of undocumented people in concentration camps. Just providing these people with food and housing will be a logistical nightmare.

What’s more, I have serious doubts with the idea that a variety of other people that Trump doesn’t like — everyone from trans people to loudmouth cranks like me — won’t find themselves in any sort of dragnet that Trump begins to employ across the country.

And I’m sure there are all sorts of bonkers counter-revolution things that Trump will do as early as possible in 2025. One key issue for me is if Trump will have the abstract thinking ability to propose a Constitutional Convention that would pass Amendments that would make America a white Christian ethnostate. It could be he will be so stupid that he just announces that he’s going to stay in office the rest of his life because “he deserves it.”

No matter what happens if Trump wins in 2024, we have to accept that the U.S. Military will ultimately decide the country’s fate. If the country collapses into chaos, whomever can convince the U.S. Military to take their side will determine who has power.

Of course, there’s a non-zero chance that not even the U.S. Military will stay stable. It, too, could collapse for a variety of reasons. Then you have WMD that might begin to be lobbed here and there across the country in the context of a global WW3 erupting.

Good times!

I just don’t know what to tell you. It could be that Biden wins and we muddle through another four years. But….I have my doubts.

Death By Vibes

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One sign that the country is in deep, deep trouble is how the Right has constructed out of whole cloth all these conspiracies about how “woke” corporations are going to do all these horrible things to them at some point in the near future.

It is now gospel within far Right podcasts that unless Trump becomes POTUS again, that “woke” banks will deny them services simply because of their political views. And the list goes on. They have convinced themselves that just by being conservative, the “woke cancel culture mob” is going to destroy their lives and drive they and their families into the streets.

They have only the vaguest proof that this is going to happen. In short — they have vibes.

MEANWHILE, these very same MAGA Republicans totally ignore a growing amount of evidence that suggests that in cold, hard ways all the tyrannical things that Trump plans to do the moment he can. And it’s not like he’s hiding it. All he does is talk about the tyrannical things he wants to do.

Whenever you bring up any of these tyrannical things to a MAGA Republican, they piviot to all the weird conspiracy theories they’ve heard from far Right podcasts about what they believe “woke” corporations are planning to do. They either do that, or they try to mitigate or rationalize out of existence the dangers posed by things like Project 2025 by saying, “I look at Project 2024 and it just looks like a regular policy agenda to me.”

Oh boy.

All of this yet again makes me think about what will happen if Trump goes full tyrant on us in 2025. The key issue is — Trump is so lazy and stupid that he just doesn’t have the political chops to transition the United States into a Russian-style autocracy without there being SOME backlash. Even Putin, who had a tradition of autocracy and a nation in chaos, gradually transitioned the country into an autocracy.

So if Trump goes nuts and goes full tyrant the moment he’s in office again — the shit is going to hit the fan. I can only assume there will be a spectrum of far Right podcasts listeners should this happen.

On one end of the spectrum will be people who are all-in to Trump’s tyranny. They will be proactive Good Germans who cheer on the country’s transition into a white Christian ethnostate — they will be getting what they have longed for and there will, at last, no chance that a “woke” bank will come after them for listening to Joe Rogan.

MEANWHILE, ON THE OTHER END of the spectrum, there will be people who will blanch at the tyranny and chaos that Trump will cause. It is these people that we have to keep an eye on. If these Traditionalists simply sit on their hands should their be a Blue General Strike, then maybe, just maybe, we might be able to depose Trump in some way.

But, plot twist, if that happens, then there probably will be a civil war as Red States leave the Union in rage that Trump has been deposed.

So…lulz?

The Conditions Exist For An Election Catastrophe Starting In Late 2024, Early 2025

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I continue to just not know one way or another what to expect this fall. It definitely SEEMS as though the conditions exist for us to collectively lurch into a dark and uncertain future because of MAGA Nazis.

But, at the moment, I just don’t know.

A lot will depend on how close the election is in the fall. If it’s really close, then, oh boy, buckle up. There would just be too much of a temptation for MAGA Nazis to pull some sort of shenanigans.

But, really even if it’s NOT close, there are no assurances that Trump won’t rant about the need for a National Divorce for the pure personal reason of him not wanting to go prison. The country is primed and ready for us to destroy ourselves on way or another because of “vibes.”

The two sides just don’t like each other and MAGA Nazis, in particular, because of macro changes in culture, thing the center-Left is out to get them. The believe this so much that they often pull some pretty crazy scenarios out of their asses just to justify the absolute worst things they can think of for people who simply don’t agree with them.

A lot will hinge on states like Texas. If Trump loses and he really leans into the idea that conservatives need their own nation so they can be “left alone” then….maybe? Maybe Texas, because of how fascist and autocratic their state Republican Party is, could call up a secessionist convention?

And if Trump wins, it’s not like things are going to be all that peacefully. My key fear is that Trump is so lazy and so fucking stupid that he might go full tyrant on us to the point that he’s deposed in some way, which, in turn would cause….Red States to begin to leave the Union.

As I’ve said before, that leaves the following scenario as the only way we may it out alive in 2024 — Biden wins, Trump rants about the need for a National Divorce and no one listens to him. Then he announces his run for 2028 and we punt all of the structural issues that might cause the greatest nation in the world to collapse because of “vibes” down the road another four years.

Taking Texas’ Threat To Secede Seriously

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The signs are there that one side or the other may collectively decide to start to a National Divorce as part of the 2024 presidential silly season. But, at the moment, it definitely seems as though Reds are far more likely to do it than Blues.

And the one state that seems most likely to secede beginning at some point in late 2024, early 2025 is Texas. The talk of secession is so hot in Texas that a paper in the state wrote an editorial telling people to shut up about it.

The key reason why I believe Texas — then other Red States — might actually pull the trigger on a National Divorce is state Republican Parties are so fucking radical these days on a structural basis, that if the time comes they may actually do it. Damn the consequences.

There are two scenarios whereby I could see Texas — then the rest of Red States — might leave the Union. One is, Trump loses and when he starts to rant about the need for a National Divorce to keep himself out of prison, Red States, starting with Texas then probably South Carolina, will actually take him up on it.

Meanwhile, the OTHER way Texas might begin a National Divorce is if Trump is somehow deposed for going full tyrant after he wins. THEN, I could see Texas leaving the Union, which would prompt other Red States to do the same.

All of this is still very speculative and abstract at the moment. The only reason why I think the country MIGHT collapse into revolution / civil war is they say you go bankrupt gradually then all at once. And all the signs are there that the country is gradually moving towards a level of political instability not seen since the first Civil War.

Of course, it’s very possible that we’ll just drift through this particular situation and nothing of note will happen one way or another. But for that to happen, not only would Biden have to win, but Trump’s rantings about the need for political violence after he lost would have to be ignored.

I just don’t know if we’ll be that lucky.

What Will Indicate We’re Fucked Starting In Late 2024, Early 2025

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I still am not convinced that the worst is going to happen to the United States. There is still enough time for something to happen that will cause us to muddle through the 2024 presidential silly season unharmed. And, yet, I continue to worry that we’re totally and completely fucked.

Here are some events to look for starting in late 2024, early 2025.

The Taking of Trump Tower / Conservative Media
One sign that the country is on the cusp of a civil war / revolution is Trump Tower may be stormed by angry New Yorkers. Also in danger would be the headquarters of the major conservative media outlets in the city. There might even be talk of there being a Free State / City being created in New York City.

Political Rivals Being “Disappeared” by Tyrant Trump
If Trump is elected again, one sign he’s going to hard tyrant route will be him arresting his political rivals on trumped up charged. This, in turn, will cause many, many liberals to flee the country in general because they have the means, motive and opportunity to do so. They will probably first go to Canada, then flee all over the globe, changing the make up of global culture as they do.

Mass Migration
As I mentioned, there is a good chance that if Trump goes nuts and becomes The Red King that many, many smug, wealthy Twitter liberals will flee the country. Meanwhile, depending on how exactly things work out, if there is a National Divorce instead of Trump becoming a Tyrant King, there will be a lot of bouncing around the country as Reds leave Blue States and Blues leave Red States. If you see press reports of that kind of stuff happening — you need to grab your bugout bag.

Secessionist Conventions
If there is some sort of National Divorce — started by either Blues or Reds — keep a look out for Secessionist Conventions to being called up. If Blues leave the Union, I suspect California will be the first to go, while if it’s Reds, it will be Texas. One thing that will be interesting to see — if it’s Reds who leave the Union, how many of the deranged MAGA people in Congress actually leave their cushy jobs in Washington D.C. to join a rebel government?

World War Three
If the United States collapses into chaos, the WW3 is probably going to happen. The entire post WW2 liberal order will collapse and any number of simmering hotspots around the globe will flare up, to the point that at least 1 billion people might die if nuclear weapons are used. And those 1 billion people will die specifically because of Donald Trump.

I’m Growing Uneasy

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I like to think of myself as a survivor. So as we careen towards the 2024 presidential silly season with the greater-than-zero chance that all hell will beak loose because of it, I find myself dwelling on what I will do if my worse fears come true.

I’ve written about this before, but my concerns continue to linger. I’m kind of a Blue spot in a sea of Red where I live and if the country collapses into stark worlds of Red and Blue — something’s gotta give. I just won’t be able to live in where I live anymore because my politics will inevitably be figured out and, besides, I would prefer not to live in Trumplandia, anyway.

I suppose if things got really bad, I could make a trek to Richmond where I have some relatives — but that would only be a stopgap measure because if things have gotten so bad that I have to flea my home, Virginia will be in chaos. In chaos to the point that I — and many others — will be fleeing the state for more stable states.

Virginia is two states — one Red, one Blue — fused together who hate each other. If there is any sort of revolution or civil war, Virginia will be one of the first states to collapse into political bloodshed. I suppose the longer-term solution to my problems in the event of a civil war / revolution would be to head farther north to something north of the Mason – Dixon line.

I suppose it’s possible I’ll endup in a big refugee camp in somewhere like Pennsylvania, update New York or Maine. The dream, of course, would be to get to enjoy some fun new life in New York City. But, alas, the more I think about it, the more I probably will be stuck in a refugee camp.

Anyway, all of that is “hysterical doom shit.” And very, very speculative. It’s at least possible that somehow, magically, we’ll be saved by some sort of Black Swan event or Biden will win, Trump will fail to cause a National Divorce and I can keep trying to sell my first novel.

Worse Case Scenario: Trump’s Second Term

By Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

When thinking about what might happen in Trump’s second term, there is a key thing to contemplate: is Trump too dumb and lazy to go full tyrant while still pretending to care about the rule of law?

Is it possible that his political and historic purpose is simply to destroy the United States by totally and completely making the unpreceded move of going full tyrant without giving a shit about anything but staying in power? I only broach this because he repeatedly during his first term seemed to indicate that he was prepared to just extend his time in office without an election because he “deserved it.”

If he did such a thing during his second term, then that would probably be the set up for a revolution / civil type situation that would destroy not only the United States in the near term, but the entire post WW2 liberal order. WW3 would probably happen and billions of people might die specifically because of the actions of one Donald J. Trump.

There is a chance, of course, that somehow, someway, Trump is convinced to press for a Constitutional Convention that would put MAGA Enabling Acts into the document. Doing such a thing would at least keep Trump within the boundaries of the law — even if the law was now extremely fascist.

So, that’s kind of the spectrum we face in a second Trump Administration. On one end, the country collapses into revolution / civil war and chaos and on the other, we become something more like Putin’s Russia. I’m aware of how hysterical that sounds at the moment, but all signs are pointing towards something along those lines being our choice.

The Death of Discourse?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One of many alarming signs of the decline and fall of the Second American Republic is how the discourse on — pick a subject — has become a blood sport. Just staking out An Opinion on ANYTHING is enough to rile people up.

But let me be more specific — not to sound too Red Pilled, there is a Media Narrative that exists about the world around us. If you have the temerity to believe ANYTHING that doesn’t adhere to that orthodoxy, there is hell to pay.

This most comes into play on subjects like trans rights and anything to do with the culture wars in general. The orthodoxy on trans rights is often so murky and fluid that you don’t even know what it is unless you are Very Online.

Meanwhile, in all my years of life, I’ve never seen anything as controversial as the current war in Gaza. Twitter Leftists have such an absolute orthodoxy that you have to absolutely adhere to that it can really make your head spin. What’s worse, that orthodoxy makes absolutely no sense.

They are so absolute in their views that they apparently would rather have a second Trump term than compromise for the sake of democracy. It’s crazy. Totally and completely bonkers.

I’m reminded of what I’ve read about the corrosive politics found in Weimar Germany right before the Nazis took over. I fear that should MAGA take over again that there will be whole chapters of some future American history book devoted to how fucked up the politics of 2024 were.

Anyway. Good luck, folks. You’ll need it.

The Radicalization of Traditionalists Is Alarming

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It seems as though the 2024 election will be decided because of macro political, historical and demographic trends, barring some black swan event that I can’t predict. As such, I’m inclined to believe Trump is going to win simply because of bad vibes, if nothing else.

Traditionalists are so upset over the browning of America, the “gay agenda” and the secularization of the country that they feel as though they have no choice but to support a fucking tyrant like Trump. They rationalize the dangers of giving Trump a second term by saying, lulz, he was all talk the first time, of course he’ll be all talk the second time.

Yikes.

From personal experience, it definitely seems as though Traditionalists — who are the bedrock of any stable democracy — are so weirded out by the extremes of the “woke cancel culture mob” that they are willing to give up their democratic American birthright. As such, we’re pretty much fucked.

Having said all that, we also have to admit to ourselves that if Trump goes full tyrant on us in 2025, that there is a real chance that some pretty unprecedented things might happen — up to and including Trump being deposed in some way. That, in turn would cause a civil war to happen.

Or not. I can’t predict the future.

But the fact remains — late 2024, early 2025 could be up there with the Russian Revolution in terms of jaw dropping, history making events. The key thing is Trump is telegraphing what he wants to do in a second term. As such, I just can’t believe that Trump could go full tyrant without there being some severe consequences.

The United States is just too big, too diverse and has too strong a tradition of democracy for us to just shrug and accept Trump being a tyrant overnight. If he does a “shock and awe” attack on the institutions of the United States there will be consequences for everyone involved.

And, yet, it hasn’t happened yet. There remains a chance that somehow, someway, we’ll muddle through things like we have done so many times in the past.

But I am worried this time could be different, very worried. And the key thing to look for is how Traditionalists respond when Trump begins to snatch people off the street. Things would have to get REALLY BAD for Traditionalists to sit up and take notice.

If Trump starts to arrest people he doesn’t like, the first thing radicalized Traditionalists will say is Trump is just using “lawfare” against people he doesn’t like, just like Biden supposably did (in their view.) As such, it will be interesting to see how fucking bad things will have to get before Traditionalists begin to question their decision to go all-in on Trump.

I suspect only if it gets personal will they care. They will be Good Germans until they, personally, have to deal with some tyrannical thing Trump has done. THEN they might begin to second guess their decision to support MAGA fascism.

But only then.

Political Event Horizon

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I keep saying, the old adage is you go bankrupt gradually then all at once. The closer we get to Election Day 2024, the more I find myself worrying about how surreal late 2024, early 2025 may be.

The thing is — I can’t predict the future, so I just don’t know what is going to happen.

Our best case scenario is Biden wins, Trump rants a lot about a National Divorce…and no one listens to him. Then Biden manages to live long enough into his second term that there is a reasonably stable transition to Kamala Harris.

But that is really, really the best case scenario. There is a lot of evidence to suggest there is a non-zero chance that some pretty fucking dramatic things might happen, no matter who wins in 2024. If Trump loses, we may have a civil war. If Trump wins, we may have a Blue Revolution…and then a civil war.

They key thing to consider, as I’ve mentioned before, is the fact that on an institutional basis the Republican Party has grown both radical and beholden to Trump to the point that even though the average MAGA person might not be willing to fight it out in the streets, the state Republican Parties are so radical that they may force the issue one way or another.

And, remember, all of this is happening because of vibes. Republicans — because of the browning of America and the increasing secularization of society along with the widespread adaption of feminism — feel put upon. They often don’t even know why they’re so angry, but they are.

I like to speculate that the issue is angry white Christian (men) just don’t want to talk about abortion or gay rights. They don’t mind if you have an abortion, they just don’t want to have to think about it. They want it to be a deep personal shame that requires you to “leave town,” only to return with everyone giving you the stink eye.

The same with being gay. They, on a personal basis, don’t mind if you’re gay, but they want it to be a deep personal shame. They want it to be something done in secret that is only whispered about.

And that goes for a whole list of other things that divide America at the moment. And, of course, some of all of this is just people are getting old and they don’t understand the Youngs and their newfangled world views.

Anyway, I’m growing ever more alarmed at what is happening politically in the United States. It will be interesting to see if we make out alive. I would like to query a novel in peace and quiet.