My fear is, of course, that if Trump loses that he will, unto himself, spark a civil war. The reason why I think this is how radical, on an institutional basis, state Republican Parties have become.
As such, I don’t think it would be too absurd to suggest that if Trump loses and he begins to rant and rant and RANT that he was “cheated” yet again, there is a pretty good chance that states — beginning with Texas — will call up Secessionists Conventions.
This is all very speculative — and a bit nuts.
What the “normal” person would tell you is no amount of ranting on Trump’s part could possibly lead any state — Texas or otherwise — to do such a radical thing. But I’m worried. Really worried.
It seems as though things have come to a head. It seems to me that Texas’ Republican Party has, collectively, decided the state is already one foot out of the Union already.
Anyway, who knows. I can’t predict the future. Anything — or nothing — might happen.
According to the Hollywood-related podcasts that I listen to, “Survive Until 25” is the current mantra in LA. Apparently, showbiz is kind of imploding at the moment. I really don’t know why — I’m just some rando in the middle of nowhere — but it is interesting.
One reason why it’s interesting is it’s happening right as two things — one political, the other technological — are about to crash onto Hollywood in something of a perfect storm.
It could be that by 2025, things like OpenAI’s “Sora” will really begin to take off in the context, of, well the whole world collapsing because of severe political turbulence in the USA and, by extension, the whole world.
(Let me be clear — I can’t predict the future. I have no idea what is going to happen, but I continue to have a lingering fear about such things.)
Anyway, I don’t know what to tell you. It could be that Hollywood is going to undergo a pretty radical transformation in the next few years and 2025 could not be a year of rebirth, but rather one of radical upheaval and transformation.
The key issue for me at the moment is, if Trump loses, will he demand a National Divorce and will people listen to him if he does. I think, on a state basis, Texas really would agree to leaving the Union.
That will cause the country to buckle.
Now, obvious, Trump could win and then, lulz, we have to deal with him going full tyrant. But, I dunno. If he loses, we’re so close to the country buckling already that it seems like if Trump starts to rant about the need for a National Divorce that it might really happen.
Then I have to figure out what the fuck I’m going to do. I still think my best is to head North, once some sort of infrastructure for domestic political refugees has been built out.
Generally, absolutely no one listens to me. I live in oblivion. But I have been ranting and ranting and ranting AND RANTING for years now that late 2024, early 2025 could be a Holy Shit moment in our nation’s history.
I only mention this because someone in Milwaukee*, where the RNC took place recently, looked at what of my hysterical posts from late 2020 where I had all these crazy ideas as to how Trump could stay in power. None of them, I will note, mentioned anything about him inciting an insurrection, natch.
But it does make me wonder — given how fucking much I’ve ranted about the possibility of a civil war / revolution….is it possible someone, somewhere is actually now, at last paying attention to me?
If they are, I don’t quite know what to make of such a thing. It would be totally out of the ordinary for my living-in-oblivion life. I have also caught the attention of someone who was apparently in the NYC area and now is in the DC area.
That would usually make me ecstatic — someone of note gives a shit about me! — but I’m also worried that he / she is an FBI or Secret Service agent worried I’m going to freak out and hurt someone. UGH. I hate that. I hate the idea that just because I’m a kook and have strong opinions about politics I have to worry that I’m on some sort of fucking watch list.
I’m totally, completely fucking harmless. Totally. I hate guns. I hate conflict. I am, I will admit, a kook. But that’s it. I really, really, REALY fucking hate guns.
Let’s see if anyone listens to me about that part.
I still can’t game out what is going with the United States at the moment, it makes you think about the nuts-and-bolts of collapse. There is a great book that goes into this some by David French called Divided We Fall.
But let’s talk about other things — if things actually got as bad as I fear, how would we distinguish between Blue forces and Red Forces? We both can’t use Old Glory.
A would, of course, depend on what specific nature of the division would be. My fear, of course, is that Trump wins, gets deposed then the country collapses because Reds freak out and their states begin to leave the Union.
That’s the fear.
But we’ll see. It will be interesting to see if someone comes up with a flag Blue forces to use. I think the Reds will either use an all-red flag, or maybe one with some sort of stylized lion on it. It will be interesting to see — if such a dystopian thing happens — if the Reds call themselves Trumplandia during the middle of the catastrophe.
I really, really, REALLY don’t want ANY of my dystopian hellscape fears to come true. But I can’t help myself. I keep worrying about how, exactly, the USA might collapse.
I’m very alarmed by how many young men on Twitter have gone all-in for Trump after “the Graze.” It’s very, very disturbing. It’s like we’re seeing the creation of the Trump Youth in real time.
Young men, for some reason, really like the idea that Trump is a thug. This is a “Not, great, Bob,” type situation fora number of reasons. But, here we are, with the very real possibility that a “Trump Youth” organization will be established in the first few months of 2025.
Good times!
I am really, really going to have to figure out how to get the fuck out of the USA if that happens. At least I have a passport.
The key thing we have to accept is the fascist MAGA Right is not only politically ascendant, but also fucking bloodthirsty. They have finally reached the point, it seems, where they’re willing to physically hurt people in the real world if they don’t get what they want.
The fascist MAGA Right clearly wants to murder people like me in cold blood if I stand in their way. Now, obviously, it’s all couched in the context of their anger being rhetorical.
But just on the face of it, it seems as though in the fascist MAGA Right mind, anyone who has power who isn’t them isn’t legitimate. By definition. They are craven and want absolute autocratic power to the fullest extent that society will give them.
And all of that leaves me very alarmed going forward. These facts leave me worried that even if we defeat the fascist MAGA Right in November, there will be a civil war because on a structural basis the Republican Party at the state level is so radicalized that they will leave the Union in protest.
Who knows. I can’t predict the future. I am very, very worried.
There are a few things we have to take into consideration before we think about Trump’s second term. The first is, we have to work on the basic assumption that Trump is simply going to ignore the Supreme Court if they rule in any way he doesn’t like.
So, if he fires several hundred thousand civil servants using his Schedule F idea, then, lulz, he’ll just do it no matter how much SCOTUS rules against him. He will invoke Andrew Jackson and go about his business.
Another issue we have to think about is the total fucking chaos Trump is going to cause when he begins to build out the infrastructure necessary to put millions of undocumented people in concentration camps. Just providing these people with food and housing will be a logistical nightmare.
What’s more, I have serious doubts with the idea that a variety of other people that Trump doesn’t like — everyone from trans people to loudmouth cranks like me — won’t find themselves in any sort of dragnet that Trump begins to employ across the country.
And I’m sure there are all sorts of bonkers counter-revolution things that Trump will do as early as possible in 2025. One key issue for me is if Trump will have the abstract thinking ability to propose a Constitutional Convention that would pass Amendments that would make America a white Christian ethnostate. It could be he will be so stupid that he just announces that he’s going to stay in office the rest of his life because “he deserves it.”
No matter what happens if Trump wins in 2024, we have to accept that the U.S. Military will ultimately decide the country’s fate. If the country collapses into chaos, whomever can convince the U.S. Military to take their side will determine who has power.
Of course, there’s a non-zero chance that not even the U.S. Military will stay stable. It, too, could collapse for a variety of reasons. Then you have WMD that might begin to be lobbed here and there across the country in the context of a global WW3 erupting.
Good times!
I just don’t know what to tell you. It could be that Biden wins and we muddle through another four years. But….I have my doubts.
One sign that the country is in deep, deep trouble is how the Right has constructed out of whole cloth all these conspiracies about how “woke” corporations are going to do all these horrible things to them at some point in the near future.
It is now gospel within far Right podcasts that unless Trump becomes POTUS again, that “woke” banks will deny them services simply because of their political views. And the list goes on. They have convinced themselves that just by being conservative, the “woke cancel culture mob” is going to destroy their lives and drive they and their families into the streets.
They have only the vaguest proof that this is going to happen. In short — they have vibes.
MEANWHILE, these very same MAGA Republicans totally ignore a growing amount of evidence that suggests that in cold, hard ways all the tyrannical things that Trump plans to do the moment he can. And it’s not like he’s hiding it. All he does is talk about the tyrannical things he wants to do.
Whenever you bring up any of these tyrannical things to a MAGA Republican, they piviot to all the weird conspiracy theories they’ve heard from far Right podcasts about what they believe “woke” corporations are planning to do. They either do that, or they try to mitigate or rationalize out of existence the dangers posed by things like Project 2025 by saying, “I look at Project 2024 and it just looks like a regular policy agenda to me.”
Oh boy.
All of this yet again makes me think about what will happen if Trump goes full tyrant on us in 2025. The key issue is — Trump is so lazy and stupid that he just doesn’t have the political chops to transition the United States into a Russian-style autocracy without there being SOME backlash. Even Putin, who had a tradition of autocracy and a nation in chaos, gradually transitioned the country into an autocracy.
So if Trump goes nuts and goes full tyrant the moment he’s in office again — the shit is going to hit the fan. I can only assume there will be a spectrum of far Right podcasts listeners should this happen.
On one end of the spectrum will be people who are all-in to Trump’s tyranny. They will be proactive Good Germans who cheer on the country’s transition into a white Christian ethnostate — they will be getting what they have longed for and there will, at last, no chance that a “woke” bank will come after them for listening to Joe Rogan.
MEANWHILE, ON THE OTHER END of the spectrum, there will be people who will blanch at the tyranny and chaos that Trump will cause. It is these people that we have to keep an eye on. If these Traditionalists simply sit on their hands should their be a Blue General Strike, then maybe, just maybe, we might be able to depose Trump in some way.
But, plot twist, if that happens, then there probably will be a civil war as Red States leave the Union in rage that Trump has been deposed.
I continue to just not know one way or another what to expect this fall. It definitely SEEMS as though the conditions exist for us to collectively lurch into a dark and uncertain future because of MAGA Nazis.
But, at the moment, I just don’t know.
A lot will depend on how close the election is in the fall. If it’s really close, then, oh boy, buckle up. There would just be too much of a temptation for MAGA Nazis to pull some sort of shenanigans.
But, really even if it’s NOT close, there are no assurances that Trump won’t rant about the need for a National Divorce for the pure personal reason of him not wanting to go prison. The country is primed and ready for us to destroy ourselves on way or another because of “vibes.”
The two sides just don’t like each other and MAGA Nazis, in particular, because of macro changes in culture, thing the center-Left is out to get them. The believe this so much that they often pull some pretty crazy scenarios out of their asses just to justify the absolute worst things they can think of for people who simply don’t agree with them.
A lot will hinge on states like Texas. If Trump loses and he really leans into the idea that conservatives need their own nation so they can be “left alone” then….maybe? Maybe Texas, because of how fascist and autocratic their state Republican Party is, could call up a secessionist convention?
And if Trump wins, it’s not like things are going to be all that peacefully. My key fear is that Trump is so lazy and so fucking stupid that he might go full tyrant on us to the point that he’s deposed in some way, which, in turn would cause….Red States to begin to leave the Union.
As I’ve said before, that leaves the following scenario as the only way we may it out alive in 2024 — Biden wins, Trump rants about the need for a National Divorce and no one listens to him. Then he announces his run for 2028 and we punt all of the structural issues that might cause the greatest nation in the world to collapse because of “vibes” down the road another four years.
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