Once Trump’s Tyranny Is No Longer Abstract, All Hell May Break Loose

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One thing I’ve noticed about a lot of the liberal, hand wringing think pieces about any possible impending Trump second term is how abstract they are. They don’t really get into the nitty-gritty of what the reaction in Blue states might be if Trump went “full tyrant.”

Now, if Trump is all talk and is more Victor Orban in his autocracy, then I think he will be fine. He will lay the cornerstone for an autocratic state that will probably last for the rest of my life. We will continue to have “elections” but they will be anything but free and or fair.

My fear is, of course, that Trump is so dumb and bonkers that he goes full hard tyrant and does such crazy shit that the country buckles in some way. If Trump canceled, say, the midterms or the 2028 elections, then that would be….oh boy, a bridge too far for most people Red or Blue.

Or if he really did gather up 20 million undocumented people, put them in camps and started to deport them. That would be something, on a practical basis, that a lot of Blue states simply would not stand for. And that doesn’t even begin to address what might happen if, say, Trump started to use Red National Guard troops on the populations of Blue States.

That kind of “hard” tyranny is the kind of stuff that gives me pause for thought. The country would be shaken to its core in a way not seen sense the American Civil War. I have pondered some “legalistic” ways Trump might be deposed by the military, but, alas, I don’t even think that would help much because Trump would replace too much of the leadership of the military.

The point is — if Trump wins, the US could buckle in a pretty dramatic fashion. And if Blues were able to successfully depose Trump, that would only set the stage for a civil war, with Red states leaving the Union in protest. So, for everyone’s sake, I think some situation where Trump loses and simply drifts off into the political darkness would be the best for everyone involved.

At The Moment, At Least, Kamala Harris Has Momentum

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Well, at the moment at least, it seems as though the Kamala Harris might have the upper hand against Trump? Maybe? I say this as someone who is notoriously bad at predicting the future. But it’s at least possible that — maybe — Harris is going to win.

Now, my fear is, of course, if she does win that Trump will freak out and demand a National Divorce. But maybe I’m overthinking things. Maybe that’s not at all what is going to happen if Trump loses. He might just get mad and slink off into the darkness.

We can only hope, I suppose.

But there is a chance that Harris wining will be just the beginning to a pretty big crisis. There are any number of pretty dark scenarios that I can think of. One that I’ve been dwelling on a lot of late is not so much a secession crisis as a “recognition” crisis, with a number of Red states refusing to recognize Harris as having won the presidency.

How that would work out in practical terms, I don’t know. But the whole “who is president?” issue could be a serious crisis with no ready endgame. And, yet, again, maybe I’m overthinking things. Maybe, hopefully, everything will work out and we can cruise into 2025, no problem.

We Are Just Not Prepared For A Trump Second Term

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

All signs point to any Trump second term being extremely radical to the point that I can’t game things out. I say this because Trump keeps telling us explicitly the totally bonkers things he plans to do and we lulz it.

And whenever I broach the subject of some of the crazier things Trump wants to to my far more conservative relatives — whom I love dearly — they either simply say so want or are otherwise very blasé.

Two things stick out to me. One is Trump’s declaration that he will deport millions of people as soon as possible. Just the idea of him contemplating such a thing makes me blanch for a number of reasons. The biggest is, of course, how in the world is he going to build out the infrastructure necessary to do it. You would have to build out some sort of Federal police — ICE? — to the point that its ranks ballooned.

Meanwhile, you would have to open up camps to put all the people in before you kicked them out of the country. You would have to feed them, etc. I just don’t know how practical any such thing would be. And on the ground, families across the country would be torn apart.

And that doesn’t begin to address the situation where center-Left people — like me — might get rounded up as part of the deportation just accidently on purpose.

The other thing that really, really bothers me is Trump’s continued ranting about using the National Guard of Red States on Blue State populations if they cause any problems. This one is really personal because I could very well be a stray Blue that gets caught up in this particular endeavor.

I just don’t know. I have no idea what we’re going to do if Trump is re-elected. Things could get rather surreal. And all of this doesn’t even begin to address what happens between Election Day and Certification Day. Things could get nasty — and potentially violent — in ways none of us can predict at the moment.

I’m Unnerved By The Near-Term Future of The United States

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I would like to think that maybe the United States can make it through the next few months without, in some way, collapsing. I say this in the context of it could be that no matter who wins, some pretty horrific shit might happen. If Trump loses, he could go “full tyrant” to the point that the country collapses because Blues refuse to take his shit anymore.

At this point, I’m just really perplexed about what may happen one way or another. I just don’t know.

I do feel, in general, a deep sense of unease.

I keep thinking about the specifics of how and why I might become a domestic political refugee. Like, how might it specifically happen. My guess is because my politics are well known enough that someone will knock on my door and tell me I need to leave my home — or else.

Or, I suppose, things could get kind of “hot” for me in my area to the point where I make the move to leave on my own, even though no one outright tells me I need to leave.

I keep imagining there being refugee camps in places like the rural parts of PA, upstate NY and maybe Maine. Those seem like the types of places such camps would arise if there came a need for them.

Or something like that. I just don’t know. And I really don’t like the uncertainty of it all.

A Continued Sense Of Unease

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I continued to have a sense of unease about this fall and winter. I know I’ve been writing for years about this moment in time, but that doesn’t make it any easier to process.

It definitely seems as though this maybe be it. We’re going to find out, one way or another, if the USA is going to collapse in to civil war and / or revolution because of Trump or if his election in 2016 was something of a fluke and the high water mark of fascism in the country.

I just don’t know the answer at the moment, which is the source of all of my unease. I can already see it in my mind — Trump loses, demands a National Divorce and my state, Virginia, collapses into an intra-state civil war. I have to leave my home and, before you know it, I’m living in a refugee camp in up state New York or something.

Ugh.

Or, alternately, Trump *wins* and things get so bad that I have to figure out a way to get out of the country. This is a bit tricker because, well, I have no money. But maybe there will develop some sort of “Underground Railroad” for Blues who need to get out of the country or something.

Something like that.

I just don’t know. The whole thing puts me on edge. But, I suppose, we will all learn soon enough one way or another.

I Don’t Know What To Tell You About The 2024 Election

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The key thing about the 2024 election is, because of the Electoral College, the fact that we have a collection of anti-MAGA interest groups going against a fascist party is hidden. As such, I just don’t know what to tell you — if Trump wins, this could be it — American democracy as we know it could be over.

Now, of course, MAGA shitheads will say I suffer from “Trump Derangement Syndrome.” The reason this is so dumb is “TDS” is more about hand waving on the part of MAGA cocksuckers than it is about having an honest political debate about anything.

Anyway, the point is — if Trump wins the key issue is how bad things might get. If Trump “autocrat-lite” like Orban in Hungary, then he can found an autocratic state in the United States pretty easily. We won’t have free and fair elections anymore — but we will have elections.

The fear is, of course, that Trump is so stupid that he will attempt to end elections all together — then we have a problem. A big problem. I just don’t see the American populace accepting something so dictatorial. There’s one thing for such tyrannical behavior to be abstract and yet another for to actually happen in the concrete.

So, I just don’t know. It will be interesting to see what happens. I hope Trump loses, but we have to prepare for him to win.

We’re Not Taking Trump’s Ranting About Deporting 20 Million People Serious Enough

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Even though Kamala Harris is beginning to look like she might win, I’m still very uneasy about the consequences of a Trump victory. We have to take seriously the idea that Trump may very well make good on his vow to deport 20 million people.

I talk to my far more conservative relatives — whom I love dearly — and they seem either eager for the deportations to begin or simply blasé and non-committal about it all. They wave their hands and mutter something about “both sides.”

Anyway, if Trump does somehow win, I still am uneasy that he may go “full tyrant” and, as such, somehow be deposed. I have no idea how such a thing would happen, but if he really did go full tyrant…some pretty shocking and historic things could happen one way or another.

I don’t want such things to happen, but I like to think in the macro and it seems if Trump tried to deport 20 million people overnight someone, somewhere in the United States might take notice of such a shocking thing.

But, who knows. No one listens to me. And they probably shouldn’t.

The Autumn of Our Discontent

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The key issue for me at the moment is, if Trump loses, will he demand a National Divorce and will people listen to him if he does. I think, on a state basis, Texas really would agree to leaving the Union.

That will cause the country to buckle.

Now, obvious, Trump could win and then, lulz, we have to deal with him going full tyrant. But, I dunno. If he loses, we’re so close to the country buckling already that it seems like if Trump starts to rant about the need for a National Divorce that it might really happen.

Then I have to figure out what the fuck I’m going to do. I still think my best is to head North, once some sort of infrastructure for domestic political refugees has been built out.

Watch Me Be Paranoid: ‘Live Free or Die Hard’ & Late 2024, Early 2025

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As I keep saying, I’m prone to “magical thinking.” That is, thinking that really doesn’t have much connection to reality. It’s the type of weird thinking that caused people to think that they could cure COVID by….drinking bleach?

But given improvements in AI video technology, I have an unease about what might happen in the near, near future. The plot of Live Free or Die Hard revolves around some huge terrorist attack being faked via the use of deep fake technology (or something.)

I just worry…what if something like that happened as part of us careening towards civil war / revolution in late 2024, early 2025? I worry.

Is It Possible That People Are … Listening To Me?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Generally, absolutely no one listens to me. I live in oblivion. But I have been ranting and ranting and ranting AND RANTING for years now that late 2024, early 2025 could be a Holy Shit moment in our nation’s history.

I only mention this because someone in Milwaukee*, where the RNC took place recently, looked at what of my hysterical posts from late 2020 where I had all these crazy ideas as to how Trump could stay in power. None of them, I will note, mentioned anything about him inciting an insurrection, natch.

But it does make me wonder — given how fucking much I’ve ranted about the possibility of a civil war / revolution….is it possible someone, somewhere is actually now, at last paying attention to me?

If they are, I don’t quite know what to make of such a thing. It would be totally out of the ordinary for my living-in-oblivion life. I have also caught the attention of someone who was apparently in the NYC area and now is in the DC area.

That would usually make me ecstatic — someone of note gives a shit about me! — but I’m also worried that he / she is an FBI or Secret Service agent worried I’m going to freak out and hurt someone. UGH. I hate that. I hate the idea that just because I’m a kook and have strong opinions about politics I have to worry that I’m on some sort of fucking watch list.

I’m totally, completely fucking harmless. Totally. I hate guns. I hate conflict. I am, I will admit, a kook. But that’s it. I really, really, REALY fucking hate guns.

Let’s see if anyone listens to me about that part.

*I doubled checked – it was Waunakee. Ooopse.