Civil War / Revolution Scenarios

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


I keep writing about this over and over again. Here are three examples of me writing about the same thing — various scenarios involving a revolution / civil war starting in late 2024, early 2025.

Trump Wins
In this scenario, Trump wins one way or another and his second term agenda is so absolutely vengeful and radical that Blue states, probably starting with California, begin to leave the Union. To me, at the moment, this seems the most likely scenario. If a civil war happens, it’s going to happen because Blues, not Reds, get fed up and head for the exits.

Trump Loses
In this scenario, Trump LOSES one way or another and when he begins to rant at the top of his lungs that Red states need to do something about it, states like Texas, Arizona, South Carolina and Florida see who can be the first out the door. Of course, being center-Left this is the scenario that makes me feel the best. Even though I don’t want a civil war — I hate violence of any sort — I’d rather not have to be the one to rationalize why my side decided to destroy the country I love so much.

Honorable mention is somehow, someway Biden manages to pick just the wrong moment to shuffle off this mortal coil between Election Day and Certification Day and….oh boy. Mass chaos!

But maybe I’m wrong as I keep being told. Maybe MAGA really will, because of demographic trends, fade into oblivion and that will be that.

Dystopia: The Bad Guys Win
In this scenario, there is no impeachment, no nothing. All the lying works and the United States settles into a Russia like “managed democracy.” The Resistance kind of peters out simply from outrage burnout if nothing else. The States will become not-so-quasi-autocracy and will be so for the foreseeable future. This will all come about when we prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that there was collusion between Trump’s Campaign and the Russians and the Vichy Republicans just shrug and because of gerrymandering and dark money nothing changes. Nothing changes at all.

2. Things snap back into place
Now, when I say this, I mean it in the context of general trends that have been ebbing and flowing in American history for decades. So, while it’s possible that things will “snap back into place,” it’s not like our gradual march towards a quasi-autocracy in all but name isn’t going to continue. That’s just a problem with late-era empires like ours. But, if we’re lucky, Trump might be a one term president and the next president will pick up the pieces and we’ll just look back at this four year period as a very strange aberration in our history.

3. Progressive Revolution
One intriguing possibility in all of this is the possibility that The Resistance will decisively defeat Trumplandia and the pendulum will swing to the center-Left in a big way. So big, in fact, that a lot progressive goals will be achieved during the heady days after the defeat. Constitutional amendments will be passed, reforms will be enacted. It will be looked back upon as a Second Reconstruction.

4. Hot Civil War
It is very possible that the only way that there will be a end to the Cold Civil War between Trumplandia and The Resistance will an actual, hot Civil War where people die and get hurt. I have my doubts about this possibility, but it’s very real. I don’t know how it would work out. It’s a struggle to imagine how an actual Civil War would play out in modern America.

5. Stalemate / Trumplandia burnout
It could be that this will be a chronic problem for the next eight years. That the lying will work, but only so much. The problems with the system will be just enough to get Trump re-elected, but not enough to allow him to do serious, long-term damage to the Republic. He’ll leave office, a Democrat will come in and everything will gradually just continue as it has been, only with the continuing sector of Trumplandia in the background.

I can’t predict the future. And I have no special insight into what may — or may not — happen in late 2024, early 2025. But at the moment, just around July 4th, 2024, I would say, yes, the USA is probably going to have a civil war soon.

I say this because we have a few scenarios ahead of us:

  1. Trump loses — no civil war
  2. Trump loses — civil war
  3. Trump wins — Project 2025 happens peacefully
  4. Trump and is deposed by Blues — civil war
  5. Trump wins, Project 2025 is too radical and Blues leave before he’s sworn in

    I have no idea of any of these might actually happen. But I am worried that they might. I’ve written so much about all of this over the last four years that I don’t know if there’s anymore for me to say at this point.

    Now, we just wait and see.

It’s Like We’ve Collectively Given Up, Redux

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing about MAGA fascists is, on a historical basis, they’re ascendant. The winds of history on their side. It definitely seems as though America has collectively given the fuck up.

Or, put another way, there is a risk that it won’t be until things like Agenda 47 or Project 2025 are actually real before people sit up and take notice. My fear is that Trump will win simply because of the general ebb-and-flow of history…only to go full tyrant, which will cause all hell to break loose.

That, it seems, is a real possibility at the moment.

I don’t have any answer to what is going on going forward. I would really prefer not to have the USA collapse in early 2025 when Trump goes full tyrant and the a Blue General Strike causes the country to buckle and the U.S. Military to step in to do something about Trump — in effect, deposing him.

But I’m not prepared to believe any such thing will happen. It could be that Project 2025 will be implemented peacefully and that’s that. I will have to avoid ICE agents who want to murder me for being a loud mouth crank, but at least maybe I can finish my novel and query it.

Of Trump & ‘The Mule’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m getting some traffic on a post I did some time ago comparing Trump to the Isaac Asimov character “The Mule.” I’m assuming that either the Foundation series on Apple+ is going to feature the character. Or a movie is being made using the character. Or maybe someone, somewhere — with a lot more credibility — has also made the comparison, or is about to publish something that does.

But I’ve come to think maybe Trump isn’t The Mule — in strict terms the Seldon Plan would predict that someone like Trump would occur at some point. So, as such, Trump isn’t The Mule.

The Mule destroyed the Plan because he was totally unaccounted for.

But, in general terms, the point of the comparison remains — you could definitely use The Mule as a political allegory for Trump. I say this because only nerds would know something as strict as I do about The Plan and the point of the comparison is there — Trump is very Mule-like.

The Fascist MAGA Right Doesn’t See The Biden Administration As Legitimate

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The key thing we have to accept is the fascist MAGA Right is not only politically ascendant, but also fucking bloodthirsty. They have finally reached the point, it seems, where they’re willing to physically hurt people in the real world if they don’t get what they want.

The fascist MAGA Right clearly wants to murder people like me in cold blood if I stand in their way. Now, obviously, it’s all couched in the context of their anger being rhetorical.

But just on the face of it, it seems as though in the fascist MAGA Right mind, anyone who has power who isn’t them isn’t legitimate. By definition. They are craven and want absolute autocratic power to the fullest extent that society will give them.

And all of that leaves me very alarmed going forward. These facts leave me worried that even if we defeat the fascist MAGA Right in November, there will be a civil war because on a structural basis the Republican Party at the state level is so radicalized that they will leave the Union in protest.

Who knows. I can’t predict the future. I am very, very worried.

Trump’s Inevitable Third Term

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It is inevitable that if Trump wins in the fall that he will be allowed to run for a third term. Probably what will happen is a “creative” interpretation of the Constitution by SCOTUS as is meant by a president being limited to two terms.

Or, it could be, that Trump is so lazy and dumb that he just runs without care for what SCOTUS has to say. It would be an “official act” for him to break the Constitution, so lulz.

In short, the USA is far, far more unstable than any of us realize. I want peace, but I am worried.

Deposing Trump

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

First, some context: I do not see myself as any sort of “revolutionary.” I just love to run scenarios. So, relative to me, this is just running the, “How would you depose Trump?” scenario. I mean no harm. I don’t actually want any of this to happen in the real world.

But I do love a good scenario, so here goes.

The key thing to remember is to remember both how decentralize the USA is on an existential basis and how Godawful dumb and lazy Trump is. So, if Trump manages to become POTUS again — which looks like he is as of right now — his natural inclination will be to go “full tyrant” within moments of being sworn in.

This is where things get….uhhh….interesting.

Way, way, way, WAY too many people — especially older well-meaning white liberals on Facebook — seem to think just posting a sick burn of Trump on social media means jack shit. It does not. It just makes you look like a fool. So, if Trump really does go “full tyrant,” well, some one somewhere is going to have to risk some “lives and sacred honor” in the real world.

In general, it seems like easiest course of action for Blues if Trump goes full tyrant would be a General Strike — people in Blue States just don’t go to work until their conditions are met.

I could see the main condition being Trump and his veep stepping down (if the Speaker of the House is a Democrat) or in some way forcing SCOTUS to “review” their decision about the 14th Amendment and Trump. But even if the “good guys” won this initial victory, a civil war would break out because Texas, etc., would be enraged that Trump had to step down.

And that doesn’t begin to address how Trump would not leave office easily. A lot of people would get hurt because he would send Red National Guard troops into Blue States — even if there was no General Strike!

So, let’s call the whole thing off. Rather than any talk of “deposing” Trump, just leave the country if you can.

‘General Strike’

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

All I got when it comes to “deposing” Tyrant Trump, should it come to that, is a Blue General Strike. If the general American economy cratered because Blues — and specifically women — just didn’t show up to work for a few days, maybe the U.S. Military might be…persuaded…to get SCOTUS to review its 14th Amendment ruling about Trump?

Maybe?

Anything that happened would have to have a thin veneer of legality to it. But, of course, even if Trump just quit, him being forced out would cause a civil war because Reds would leave the Union — even if they were ok with the new MAGA veep turned POTUS.

(Talk about surreal.)

Though, I suspect if Trump were deposed that….arrangements….would be made so a non-MAGA POTUS would become president soon afterwards. I don’t want any of this to happen because….uhhh…the whole thing would be a total catastrophe.

2025: Dictatorship In America

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The key issue whenever you think about what Trump might do if he wins is how stupid and lazy he is. It is clear that autocracy has the historical momentum at this point and the US — at least the Red parts — have decided that our future lies with some sort of white Christian ethnostate.

But — and this “but” is key — the person history has designated to turn America into the inevitable is so fucking dumb and lazy that he could very well be deposed soon after he starts to go full tyrant (probably through a Blue General Strike.)

Or something. Something like that.

I’m just some rando in the middle of nowhere, but I do love to run scenarios, so you get this bit of drivel that no one should read or take seriously. I can’t predict the future, but, on a macro basis, it definitely seems as though Something Bad is going to happen one way or another in the USA starting in late 2024, early 2025.

At the moment, I would guess it will go something like this — Trump wins, goes full tyrant, gets deposed then a civil war happens when Red States leave the Union. But that’s just one of a variety of scenarios that exist on a pretty wide spectrum.

Anyway. Who knows what is going to happen. I am very worried, I must admit. Very, very worried.

2025: Tyrant Trump

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There are a few things we have to take into consideration before we think about Trump’s second term. The first is, we have to work on the basic assumption that Trump is simply going to ignore the Supreme Court if they rule in any way he doesn’t like.

So, if he fires several hundred thousand civil servants using his Schedule F idea, then, lulz, he’ll just do it no matter how much SCOTUS rules against him. He will invoke Andrew Jackson and go about his business.

Another issue we have to think about is the total fucking chaos Trump is going to cause when he begins to build out the infrastructure necessary to put millions of undocumented people in concentration camps. Just providing these people with food and housing will be a logistical nightmare.

What’s more, I have serious doubts with the idea that a variety of other people that Trump doesn’t like — everyone from trans people to loudmouth cranks like me — won’t find themselves in any sort of dragnet that Trump begins to employ across the country.

And I’m sure there are all sorts of bonkers counter-revolution things that Trump will do as early as possible in 2025. One key issue for me is if Trump will have the abstract thinking ability to propose a Constitutional Convention that would pass Amendments that would make America a white Christian ethnostate. It could be he will be so stupid that he just announces that he’s going to stay in office the rest of his life because “he deserves it.”

No matter what happens if Trump wins in 2024, we have to accept that the U.S. Military will ultimately decide the country’s fate. If the country collapses into chaos, whomever can convince the U.S. Military to take their side will determine who has power.

Of course, there’s a non-zero chance that not even the U.S. Military will stay stable. It, too, could collapse for a variety of reasons. Then you have WMD that might begin to be lobbed here and there across the country in the context of a global WW3 erupting.

Good times!

I just don’t know what to tell you. It could be that Biden wins and we muddle through another four years. But….I have my doubts.

Death By Vibes

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

One sign that the country is in deep, deep trouble is how the Right has constructed out of whole cloth all these conspiracies about how “woke” corporations are going to do all these horrible things to them at some point in the near future.

It is now gospel within far Right podcasts that unless Trump becomes POTUS again, that “woke” banks will deny them services simply because of their political views. And the list goes on. They have convinced themselves that just by being conservative, the “woke cancel culture mob” is going to destroy their lives and drive they and their families into the streets.

They have only the vaguest proof that this is going to happen. In short — they have vibes.

MEANWHILE, these very same MAGA Republicans totally ignore a growing amount of evidence that suggests that in cold, hard ways all the tyrannical things that Trump plans to do the moment he can. And it’s not like he’s hiding it. All he does is talk about the tyrannical things he wants to do.

Whenever you bring up any of these tyrannical things to a MAGA Republican, they piviot to all the weird conspiracy theories they’ve heard from far Right podcasts about what they believe “woke” corporations are planning to do. They either do that, or they try to mitigate or rationalize out of existence the dangers posed by things like Project 2025 by saying, “I look at Project 2024 and it just looks like a regular policy agenda to me.”

Oh boy.

All of this yet again makes me think about what will happen if Trump goes full tyrant on us in 2025. The key issue is — Trump is so lazy and stupid that he just doesn’t have the political chops to transition the United States into a Russian-style autocracy without there being SOME backlash. Even Putin, who had a tradition of autocracy and a nation in chaos, gradually transitioned the country into an autocracy.

So if Trump goes nuts and goes full tyrant the moment he’s in office again — the shit is going to hit the fan. I can only assume there will be a spectrum of far Right podcasts listeners should this happen.

On one end of the spectrum will be people who are all-in to Trump’s tyranny. They will be proactive Good Germans who cheer on the country’s transition into a white Christian ethnostate — they will be getting what they have longed for and there will, at last, no chance that a “woke” bank will come after them for listening to Joe Rogan.

MEANWHILE, ON THE OTHER END of the spectrum, there will be people who will blanch at the tyranny and chaos that Trump will cause. It is these people that we have to keep an eye on. If these Traditionalists simply sit on their hands should their be a Blue General Strike, then maybe, just maybe, we might be able to depose Trump in some way.

But, plot twist, if that happens, then there probably will be a civil war as Red States leave the Union in rage that Trump has been deposed.

So…lulz?