No matter how much the modern Slavocrats may think they can defeat the “woke” soyboys of the Blue States simply by starting a dumb, tragic Second American Civil war, they face a huge fucking obstacle to any such victory: California.
The thing that would make California a new “arsenal of democracy” should a civil war break out is its economy, population and unified polity. It’s a big enough state that it, itself, is a nation. This is where it becomes VERY OBVIOUS how fucking stupid a civil war would be. If you look at what the war aims of the Red States would be, they’re very self defeating.
How could Texas and / or Florida fight back against a California plains state blitzkrieg if they’re fighting a fucking race war? The MAGA New Right wants to establish a white Christian entho state — not something that really engenders a lot of support from POC.
The Liberators
As such, if you can just get California to stay in the Union, you put the state on a war footing as quickly as possible, secure Oregon and Washington then race across the mountain and plains states to Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan. Texas would likely be suffering from an intra-state civil war so you catch them on the back foot. The fighting would be horrific, but California would win. At the same time you have another horrific battle in Ohio and Indiana, but the momentum would be on Blue State’s side.
If things have gotten THIS BAD –where is the Federal government and U.S. Military? — then a race war has erupted in most of the old CSA. you do a peincer movement heading west and south in hopes of hooking up with Atlanta which is probably a strong Blue holdout.
Wildcard: if Red States are panicking, they’re going to use stolen WMD.
And, remember, the entire post WW2 global liberal order will have collapsed so to add to what’s going on domestically in the United States, a number of limited nuclear exchanges will likely have happened.
This entire clusterfuck would be the Fourth Turning. A huge reset. What the endgame would ultimately be would be up to us, if we survive.
Background The bonkers thing about what happened on January 6th is Trump was so fucking lazy and stupid as an autocrat that he waited to the very last moment to attempt an autogolpe (self-coup). Any other autocrat would have wrapped up the theft of the 2020 election before it was even held by firing whomever stood in the way of an indictment of Joe Biden.
It is testament to what lazy, moronic brat Trump is that even a rando like me kept thinking up the most obvious ways to steal the 2020 election and Trump just could not comprehend how to do it. The political conditions existed for Trump to steal the election without an autogolpe right up until the point where the election was officially called for Biden.
January 6th
The Plot First, given what we know of how Trump thinks, I doubt there were all that many specific elements to the plot. Probably, Trump knew what he wanted — stay in power no matter what — and he just ranted about that around his toadies so much that they began to use the spaghetti method to see what stuck. For some reason, a number of opportunities for Trump to pull the trigger on the “just say it was corrupt and I’ll take care of the rest” idea — and he didn’t do it. This is is very, very weird. Why he would choke simply because of the prospect of mass resignations is very strange.
But back to the plot.
I suspect it went something like this — in a general way, Trump and his co-conspirators created the conditions for a mob to attack the Capitol in hopes that when Trump told them to attack they would and this would either buy them time or force Pence’s hand on the certification of Electors or both.
When you have a very powerful brat to deal with as normal human being, your main goal is to buy time so you don’t have to deal with their disappointment. The theory Trump had was every moment the election wasn’t certified by Congress was a moment they might be able to somehow win.
But more specifically, they probably had a two pronged approached to their autogolpe — neutralize Pence and get the election thrown into Congress where Trump and Rudy could muddy the waters on a political level so much that they might, just might, get within shouting distance of winning that way.
If they could just put enough pressure on Pence so that he refused to certify the election — even though that isn’t within his power to do — then they would throw everything at Congress. All they needed was to get the extremely poorly written Electoral Count Act involved and all the bullshit agitprop techniques that were so successful for them over the years would take care of the rest.
Once they got past the huge personal obstacle of Pence, and they got the Electoral Count Act involved, their next goal would be to get the election thrown into the House and Senate. If the House picks POTUS, then each state’s delegation has just one vote.
And that would be how Trump would “win” in such a way that gave Fox news a media narrative that would simply be Bush V. Gore Redux. Get over it, libs, you lost, Trump is YOUR president, too, (again.)
An unknown is what was Jim Jordan’s involvement in this plot. Why did Trump in the waning days of his administration give Jorden, of all people, the Presidential Medal of Freedom? Was there something specific that Jorden did over and above the call of duty in this particular plot that Trump felt forced his hand? Does Jorden know something that no one else does? He got the medal AFTER January 6th, so it sure does sound like Trump was both thanking him and making sure stayed loyal in the future, no matter what.
I do believe there was a specific, coordinated attempt to stage an autogolpe on January 6th. What I don’t think happened was it was all that well thought out or had any specific sequence of events they thought they could pull off, which was why it failed.
They just wanted to buy time, get the election thrown into Congress and then attack the process with everything they had. It’s possible that some very smart, well educated people actually did have a specific goal in mind — get the House to pick the president — but they failed because of how stupid, lazy and disorganized the leader of the plot — Trump — was.
One reason why the American MAGA New Right is very, very dumb to crave a second civil war is they’re assuming that all such an event would be is nothing more than politics with the opportunity to use violence against liberals.
The MAGA New Right is so busy sucking its own cock that they forget something: once things become existential for both sides the state of play is dramatically different. A lot of the dumber “woke” shit that Leftist spout off about would suddenly evaporate. It’s hard to be a trustafarian when your family is staring down the barrel of a gun.
That’s probably the single biggest strategic miscalculation of the MAGA New Right — they glorify political violence, blame liberals for “forcing” them to engage in it because they assume the center-Left is made up of a bunch of transgenderd soyboys who will be easy to get rid of. This goes against all of human existence: even the most fey of people are going to fight back extremely hard if their lives depend on it.
That’s why, it’s in the interests of the MAGA New Right to stop being such crybabies and to continue work within the confines of politics — all they have to do is be patient and they’ll get everything they want without firing a shot. I would compare it to Slave Power in 1861. If they had just stayed in the Union, they had probably could have kept their slaves a solid 10 more years at least.
Even the election of Lincoln was, on a political level, a very soft, general indication of political trends. But they South decided on war and they lost everything in a very violent manner.
So, too, could the MAGA New Right lose everything if they turn to organized political violence. Just sketching things out in my mind gives me a lot to work with if things become existential. Blue States have bigger economies, are more politically unified and have populations that are more concentrated. If the U.S. Military somehow collapses and you have essentially state- verse- state warfare without any central military, then California can easily on its own seize everything between it and the Blue States of the midwest with only Texas standing in its way.
America, 2021
But even Texas is shifting Blue and if an actual civil war started it might implode, especially once the state government radicalized and started some sort of “Final Solution” against POC.
And it’s because of how quickly Red States would realize what a huge mistake they had made by pushing us into violence that WMD would be seized and then we bomb ourselves into the stone age. Once WMD were used, everything would be taken to the next level with both sides growing far, far more radical than they ever imagined.
It would be a huge, historic reset not only in the United States, but the entire world. Everything would change, nothing would stay the same. So, it’s best if we just don’t do that, ok? Let’s not start killing each other for political reasons? Please?
But I fear I’m wasting my breath. Just like how war was glorified in Europe leading up to World War 1, so, too, does the MAGA New Right glorify the prospect of a Second American Civil War.
Sooner or later, because the Republican Party on an systemic, essential basis is nothing more than modern “Slave Power” we’re going to either live under its jackboot or destroy it.
Now, a number of NeverTrumpers talk about this need to destroy the Republican Party, but they always talk about it in an extremely abstract, rhetorical fashion. And, for the time being, that’s probably the best course of action. But when such MAGA New Right “thought leaders” like Jesse Kelly and the talking heads of FOX News’ primetime up pretty much say we’re headed towards political violence — and it’s all liberals’ fault — something’s gotta give.
Again, let me be absolutely clear — I hate violence. I hate guns. All of my ranting here is done in sort of a “psychohistory” way. I’m looking at general, macro political, economic and demographic trends and making a pretty obvious conclusion — we’re fucked. And, because I absolutely refuse to let a tool like Jesse Kelly intimidate me, I’m calling his bluff. He’s not going to blame ME for the political violence HE glorifies.
I have seen how abstract fears about — essentially — “replacement theory” on the part of the MAGA New Right are destroying our liberal democracy and I feel forced to make my own abstract fears concrete. Hence, my obsessive “doom shit” about the looming existential choice of autocracy or civil war.
I also love scenarios so thinking up the specifics of how we might either peacefully transition into an autocracy or find ourselves destroying the Republican Party as part of a civil war is definitely my bailiwick. So any suggestion of violence is strictly wargaming. I’m a man of ideas and to me running a wargame about how we might defeat Trumplandia is just part and parcel of that.
Anyway, back to the point — there is going to come a point where just like during the Civil War slave power pushed us to the breaking point and ultimately caused its own destruction, so, too, is it likely that if the MAGA New Right doesn’t turn us into a Russian-style managed democracy that we (e.g. Blue States) are pushed into a historical corner and we have to destroy them on the field of battle.
And let me stress – I don’t want any political violence and I sure as fuck don’t want a civil war. Unlike the MAGA New Right fucktards I actually am aware of how fucking horrific a civil war would be. It would be massive, epic tragedy that would likely leave billions dead because the entire post-WW2 liberal order would collapse and WW3 would happen.
But on a macro historical level, I just don’t see how we don’t avoid either autocracy or civil war. And if those are my choices, I won’t say I “pick” civil war, but that’s the high risk, high potential reward option that is a lot better than living under an autocracy. The reason why all of this is personal for me is I’m a loudmouth kook and I know that having the luxury of living in a free country like the United States has been — to date — is the only reason why I can rant about what a fucking cocksucker Mike Pompeo is without risk of being pushed out a window by ICE. (I talk about this a lot, I know, but it’s just a rhetorical flourish. A running gag, if you will.)
Any time you’re talking about leaving politics behind and settling things but killing people for ideological reasons, oh boy. War is hell and unpredictable and should be avoided at all costs. But, if I HAVE to think about it, the Blue States are a lot like the North — it might take a little while for them to get their shit together, but in the end they can vanquish their rival vision of America. A lot would depend, of course, on what California did.
If it simply leaves the Union at the onset of a Second American Civil War, then, lulz, welcome to Trumplandia.
It’s times like these where I wish I went to Harvard and worked at VOX so I could get paid to figure out what to tell you to do at this point. As it is, I’m at a loss.
One of the more alarming things to happen in modern American politics is how thirsty the MAGA New Right is for autocrats all over the world. The latest thug to have their Tiger Beat spread cut out and pasted on their bedroom wall is Hungary’s autocratic superstar Viktor Orbán.
Talk about what the fuck.
It’s astonishing that it feels like two eras — the late 1850s and the late 1930s — are fusing together in some sort of weird political Frankenstein’s monster. It’s like as if the leaders of Slave Power went on a tour of the Russian Empire and were impressed with how docile the serfs were. Ugh!
What really astonishes me is how all of this is happening is broad daylight and it’s not a huge scandal. It’s like how all those Republican Senators celebrated the 4th of July in Moscow — of all places — a few years ago. That was another what the fuck moment.
What we have to take seriously is the Republican Party is radicalizing in broad day light. It’s now a fascist autocratic white nationalist party. By definition, if it ever gains power again, it’s going to finally extinguish our undead democracy. Given that even an undead democracy has a natural ebb and flow to it, Republicans are going to gain power again.
And they’re probably never going to let it go.
Any discussion of this clusterfuck, however, has to address that the very thing that has allowed the MAGA New Right to gain so much power in broad daylight — Trump’s “chaos agent” nature — is also the movement’s greatest weakness. Trump flings off so much inept chaos just by existing, that he could very well start a civil war that would at least give Blue States a fighting chance at destroying the Republican Party cancer.
So, in a sense, Trump remains a macro historical wildcard. He has such absolute control over the fascist Republican Party that it’s possible he might transition us into an autocracy. And it’s also that because he’s a fucking idiot, he could bungle that same transition and cause a civil war that leads to the destruction of the Republican Party just as much as the first Civil War prompted the destruction of Slave Power once and for all.
But the fact remains — the Republican Party must be destroyed if we are to remain a free country. On a systemic, intuitional basis, the Republican Party is now fascist, autocratic and white nationalist. I’m not thrilled at the idea that the United States would ever have to go through the tragedy of civil war again, but if my only other option is to live in an autocracy like Orban’s Hungary, what the fuck else are we going to do?
And, yet, no fate but what we make. There’s still a chance that we’re going to drift towards some sort of situation where we have an autocracy — a Democrat can only become POTUS if Democrats control Congress — but the fascist Republicans will be so busy making abortion illegal and giving plutocrats yet another tax cut that they whole pushy-pushy out of windows thing will remain just a running gag for me.
Say what you will about the #NeverTrump movement, they definitely have principles. And, I think, that’s what makes #NeverTrump groups like The Lincoln Project so appealing to liberals. NeverTrumpers are so principled, articulate and passionate about how much they fucking hate Trump that they sometimes outshine liberal leadership on the subject. (I find the vast majority of liberal leadership rather timid and tepid, at best.)
Now, I have to note — the existence of the #NeverTrump movement has a spooky similarity to the War Democrats of the Civil War. So, in a sense, history is repeating itself, which does not bode well for the long-term political stability of the United States.
In fact, it’s not too difficult to imagine a situation during a Second American Civil War where President AOC picks a NeverTrumper as her veep in an effort to unite the country, or something.
That sounds rather fantastical — it is — but it is at least within the realm of possibility, the way things are going.
I guess what I’m saying is, NeverTrumpers could balloon in political significance should Blue States find themselves actively trying to destroy the Republican Party. I mean, a liberal democracy needs some sort of conservative party if it’s going to be a…functioning liberal democracy.
If there is a Second American Civil War and the “Good Guys” — read, people like me — win, NeverTrumpers would be the core of any new conservative party, for better or worse.
We really need to destroy the Republican Party, by the way. It’s gone septic and its very existence as an organization is an existential threat to our democracy.
Way too many people have pinned their hopes on somehow everything magically going back to normal if we can just destroy Trump politically. In a sense, Trump has done all the damage he needs to do. Because he’s such a fucking idiot, he was a transitional figure.
Now that your typical ambitious Republican pol knows the conditions of the New Normal after studying Trump, we have about a dozen would-be autocrats who are chomping at the bit to finally put our undead liberal democracy out of its misery.
The current front runner for America’s Putin is Ron DeSantis. He is EXTREMELY POPULAR with my conservative relatives. Liberals hate DeSantis, so the “own the libs” box is checked. And, I’ve gotten to the point where I struggle to understand why Twitter liberals try to ascribe any logic to MAGA New Right cocksuckers at this point.
White Nationalism has gone mainstream within the Republican Party, as has autocracy and fascism. So…lulz? The historical momentum is now such that there is an open path for DeSantis to be Trump’s successor, become an autocrat through a MAGA Koch Brothers Constitutional Convention and that’s it — he’ll be POTUS for 40 odd years.
Ron DeSantis
As I keep saying, I keep vacillating wildly thinking we’re going to slip peacefully into autocracy and thinking we’re going to have a civil war. If DeSantis is the GOP’s 2024 nominee then we’re definitely going to slip peacefully into autocracy. From what I can tell, he’s proven himself an adept governor — other than killing his electorate by seeing the COVID health crisis exclusively through the lens of partisan politics — and, as such, he could easily shepherd us into autocracy.
There are a few known unknowns, however, most of them deal with a 300 lb sack of shit known as Donald Trump. It would be pretty historically ironic if Trump shived DeSantis politically and so disrupted our now near-inevitable transition into a Russian-style managed democracy that we had a civil war instead.
The thing about DeSantis is if you combine how popular he is with the MAGA New Right base with his likely ability to hoodwink liberal soccer moms in the suburbs — he’s got a winning combination. To the point that he might even be able to win the 2024 election outright, no nullification on the part of a MAGA Congress needed.
It’s easy to imagine DeSantis wins fair-and-square and soon enough enough banks hard right into autocrat land and there will be absolutely nothing we can do about it. That will be it. He’ll start ranting about how we need a Constitutional Convention to “pass a balanced budget amendment” and when it is called up somehow, mysteriously “religious liberty” will be codified in the Constitution and presidents will be elected for seven years, not four.
At the moment, that seems to be our fate. People like me will be murdered in cold political blood by ICE — one way or another — and that will just be America until we get so hot that we all have to move to Canada.
Zeroth Law A robot may not harm humanity, or, by inaction, allow humanity to come to harm. — Isaac Asimov
By Ender
The most powerful nation in the world is careening towards an existential choice: autocracy or civil war. I hate violence. I hate guns. Hell, I hate conflict. But we’ve approached a historical moment when the average self-aware American needs to do a gut check: what are you willing to do to maintain and, if necessary renew, the American Covenant?
As such, I feel forced by the human, American equivalent of Asimov’s “Zeroth Law” to say that given that I would rather die on my feet a free man than live on my knees a slave to MAGA that maybe we should begin to prepare for civil war. This is an extremely risky option.
There are no assurances that we, “the Good Guys” would win. A simple glance at the first Civil War is a huge warning not to think about it — from 1861 to 1863 the CSA had a very, very good chance of winning. That’s one of the many things about war that sucks so bad: you just never know. You could end up killing a lot of people and still not achieve your war aims. Just ask the multitude of Iraqis and Iranians that died in the early 1980s.
But at the same time, the MAGA New Right is telegraphing their objectives. They want the United States to be an autocracy, a managed democracy. They are doing this in broad daylight. If you look at the Twitter feed of people like Jesse Kelly, it’s pretty much full of the exact same things I rant about, only from the exact opposite end of the political spectrum.
What I fear, he wants, and vis versa.
I’m not proposing you buy a gun or anything — please, for fuck’s sake don’t — but I am saying you have at best about four years (January 2025) to get your affairs in order before we either slip peacefully into a Russian-style autocracy or we have a civil war of some sort.
If you have the means, buy a passport and get out while you still can. If you’re like me and don’t think you’re going to have the means to leave, you need to start to game out what you’re going to do. In some respects, a lot of this is macro and out of the hands of any one person. The choice of civil war or autocracy isn’t really in my — or anyone else’s hands.
But if we do have a civil war — which I pray we won’t — freedom loving people have to get over themselves and start thinking on an existential level how they can help the war effort. I know myself well enough to know that I’m probably going to throw myself into the revolution should it happen. I’m a good writer, speaker and organizer.
Should history decide to give me the opportunity to help save the United States, I’m going to answer the call.
Or, put another way, don’t let yourself be cowed by the civil war talk of the New Right. Rather, call their bluff and start to game out what you might do on an individual basis to combat those fucktards when the moment comes. The Blue States have a huge advantage when it comes to their economies, political unity and concentration of population.
The issue is, just like with the early days of the first civil war, if the Blue States will have the wherewithal to fight fire with fire. It could be that the Red States will sucker punch Blue States and while they’re recovering simply strangle what’s left of American democracy while Blue States recover from the inital blow.
But the Zeroth Law tells me, on a personal, abstract basis what to do.
The evidence continues to build that Trump was his own worst enemy when it came to the events of January 6th. If he wasn’t such a fucking IDIOT, his attempt at a self-coup or “autogolpe,” would have been successful. The crux of the issue is — the whole plot was done in a frenzied panic.
Me, if Trump is successful next time.
It gives one pause for thought to think that it isn’t that Trump isn’t an autocrat — he is — it’s just he’s so fucking lazy and stupid that he couldn’t pull it off even though he could have.
Or, put another way, the Hand of Fate pointed at Trump and gave him the opportunity and motive to stage a successful autogolpe in the United States. What he didn’t have was the means — he’s a barely cognizant man child who was simply playing himself.
This brings me to something I’ve found myself thinking a lot about of late: Trump is not a “great man.” He’s just an avatar. Right time, right place kind of guy. Hitler, or Stalin or whomever weren’t just playing themselves, they had agency — they warped history through sheer ego.
That avatar, not great man, element was in full display with Trump’s attempted autogolpe. Someone like Hitler wouldn’t have let the process get as far along as Trump did. And if Hitler was in such a situation, he would have used whatever means necessary to make sure he never had to leave office.
But Trump, oh boy. What a fucking moron.
We love you, Chauncy. You would never try to end our democracy.
Having said all that, there is the issue of Trump single-handedly, through sheer incompetence, forcing us into a civil war. It would happen either because Cyber Ninjas “proved” he “won” Arizona or he becomes Speaker when Republicans take the House in 2022 or he runs again in 2024 and there’s a nullification crisis when a MAGA Congress refuses to certify a Biden win.
Again, any of those scenarios would involve Trump being nothing more than a historical empty vessel. Any other autocrat would deftly transition the United States from liberal democracy into autocracy given any of those opportunities. But Trump is a fucking idiot so he could just crash into history and cause Blue States to bounce or Red States to bounce and cause the whole country to come crashing down unless the military decides to step in with some sort of temporary junta.
What I’m saying is — while we’re all going to be forced to take Trump both seriously and literally when the history of the United States is written, in a sense we dodged a huge fucking bullet (at least for the moment.) Almost any other person in the same political spectrum as Trump would have successfully destroyed American democracy.
I have no idea how to write a skit, but I do know how to tell a story. So, here you go, SNL — do something with this idea. One of the most beloved SNL skits is Phil Hartman’s “Unfrozen Caveman Lawyer.” I think Ron DeSantis looks just like that character, so I would get one of the Not Ready For Primetime Players to be “Unfrozen Caveman Governor.”
Ron DeSantis
The conceit is that he’s VERY conservative, like Stone Age conservative. The humor would be the wink and a nod to the bonkers things that MAGA New Right Republicans actually believe.
In a sense, it would be sort of Chauncy Gardner of Being There, only if he was a caveman pol.
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