‘3W:’ No Time To Die #COVID19 #CoronaVirus

Trump or no Trump, we got this.
Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


An alarming thing I’ve seen on Twitter very recently is some scientific evidence that COVID19 has been in Washington state, at least, for about six weeks. If it’s been in Washington for six weeks, it’s been bouncing around the United States for six weeks.

So, I would suggest, when the first wave of test results across the country begin to be reported, we may have, on a psychological level, something of a Pearl Harbor moment. But it won’t be the beginning of WW3, it’ll be the beginning of 3WW — the World War WuFlu.

Now, if that is, in fact, the case, the entire dynamic of American politics will change rather rapidly. Americans in ital reaction would be to “rally round the flag.” But, of course, Trump on an existential level is a divider, not a uniter and, as such, his usual demagogic bullshit won’t work. You can’t gaslight a pandemic. I guess you can try, but it’s difficult. The usual Stormy Daniels’ Playbook of having Rudy come out to admit everything to “normalize” criminal behavior just won’t cut it.

So what would all of this mean on a practical level? Well, if Trump’s worst nightmare happened — the stock market cratered and he was blamed for it, then either he implodes or explodes. Either he crumples rather dramatically and we’re effectively leaderless during the greatest domestic crisis since the Civil War, or he goes complete nuts and does — or tries to do — some rather insane things.

Trump implodes I could see the administration have something of a spasm of panic where by the usual corruption and incompetence is replaced with a sudden need to use things that Trump hates: science, facts and unconditional bi-partisanship. As such, MAGA apologists like Rick Santorm and Hugh Hewitt might rather abruptly change their tune out of desperation. Like, for the duration of the crisis while it’s an absolute political necessity, they might not try to score short term pontifical points or defend the indefensibly — they may start to act like normal human beings. They might, for once, unequivocally state what is demonstrably, factually true: the emperor has no clothes. They will, at last, pull their head out of Trump’s ass and weirdly want to do whatever it necessary to save as many lives as possible. If it happens as abruptly as I suspect, we all may look at CNN or MSNBC and drop our coffee cup in shock.

But for that to happen, things would have to get rather Biblical in their nature. Like The End Times Are Here Bad. Suddenly Trump and his toadies will be honest for once. They will beg for the very people they have scream at for four years — qualified women and minorities, scientists, you name it — to help them save the country, and, by extension, themselves. The moment they feel safe, these MAGA shitheads will turn around and go back to screaming at these people for being scary.

There is the other option: Trump, on a mental level, explodes. He goes complete nuts. He orders anyone who will listen to do what are obviously illegal things. He suspends the Constitution. He shuts down the Internet. He locks down the border. He orders the Air Force to shoot down passenger planes. You name it. This would pose something of a problem for our political system, especially if he starts to order the MAGA base to kill people he doesn’t like or if he goes so nuts that he begins to use the “Presidential Alert System” to send us all his tweets and cockpics.

This raises the question — what, exactly, COULD we do about it? Both impeachment and the 25 Amendment are now effectively non-existent as options. For either one of these options to become viable, things would have to grow so existential that there would suddenly be the overwhelming political will to do them. Since impeachment is a political act, you could go the 1868 route and simply impeach Trump for, being, well, Trump and rush it over to the Senate. We might even get witnesses for once.

But, remember, this is not something to hope for. Our political is so taunt, so dysfunctional, that for it to work again would mean A LOT OF PEOPLE WERE SICK AND DYING. And, if you throw The Gray Plague into the mix and the idea that a lot of the leaders who would help get rid of Trump would be, themselves incapacitated by WuFlu, well, I think you understand how bad things would be while we figured out how, exactly, to get rid of Trump. Throw in a limited nuclear exchange between the United States and the DPRK and things would get even more fucked up.

I don’t want this to happen. Yes, Trump has screamed at me and people like me for about four years. And, yes, he sees any willingness to compromise or work together as weakness to be exploited to the fullest for short term political gain. But I am an American, and if it seemed as though America, Columbia, was on her knees because of 3WW, then, I think everyone should just cool it and help the Trump Administration get us out of the situation as soon as possible.

Of course Trump would use any vacancies in the government caused by 3WW to consolidate power after it was over and he would also turn around and put everyone he didn’t like in an ICE camp, like he would do anyway in his second term, but lulz. YOLO.

Twitter Liberals Are So Oblivious: Putin, Pandemic & Trumplandia #COVID19

The Dear Leader
Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The thing that so many Twitter Liberals are completely oblivious about is Trump shares the view of another autocrat, Russia’s Putin, when it comes to his relationship to power: as long as he’s still in power when the sun sets, it’s a win. If your only metric is still being in power, then you can, as a Twitter Liberal, nash your teeth all you want to — Trump’s never leaving office for any reason.

And, yet, there’s something of an “act of God” bouncing around the world at an alarming rate right now — the COVID19 pandemic. Even then, I am reluctant to assume that Trump will, in traditional terms, face any type of political consequences. He’s escaped conviction by the Senate, and he will do whatever necessary to stay in power as long as he likes — even call a Constitutional Convention, if need be — so lulz. Even if the COVID19 pandemic caused a sharp, brief global recession and many died in the States directly because of his bungled response, it would still be 2021 – 2022 before we got around to attempting to get rid of him again. So, for the time being, Trump’s a tyrant with absolute power in the United States. Lulz?

It does, however, make you wonder how bad things would have to get before people like Hugh Hewitt might change their tune on Trump. They might have a momentary pause — in private — about their support if we entered horror-movie territory. But more likely, they would become rather giddy at the prospect of Trump consolidating his power even more as notable center-Left figures got sick and maybe even died. Or, put another way, even the gates of hell opening and Satan telling us that Trump REALLY WAS the anti-Christ wouldn’t be enough to make people like Matt Schlapp stop sucking Trump’s political cock. I guess, maybe, if 20 million old people died because of Trump’s poor leadership they might think about it for no other reason than their base of angry old men would be dramatically reduced in size.

So, I guess what I’m saying is, slow your roll Twitter liberals. Trump’s not going anywhere for any reason unless his enablers feel they have, at last, gotten every fucking thing they could possibly get from him. Then Mike Pence — or Don Jr, or The Kooch or Steve King or Kris Kobach — will swoop in and finish the job of turning America into the Fourth Reich.

Lulz!

Nine Months That Shook The World #Pandemic #COVID19 #CoronaVirus

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


We still don’t know how bad the spread of COVID19 is going to get. It could fizzle out and I can — finally — turn my full attention back to developing my novel. Here’s a back-of-the-envelope assessment of what might happen between now and when things “get back to normal” in about a year, or nine months at the earliest.

Putin’s Russia
Russians are extremely difficult to figure out. Why they finally revolted in 1917 is probably because of an extreme set of circumstances. I’m not expert, but it seems at least within the realm of possibility that if Russia made a major land grab against Ukraine in the coming days, using COVID19 as a cover, that that could lead to some major instability int Russia going forward. Add to that a pandemic and, well, lulz?

Xi’s China
If China imploded because of COVID19 then that would be a gut punch to the global economy and the global order. I have no idea that is going to happen in China going forward, but it is something to mull. If we really do descend into a pandemic then China could be one of the big three to collapse as part of the general chaos associated with the pandemic. I have no idea. But keep an eye on that situation

Trump’s America
I’m of the general opinion that the United States isn’t going to make it through a pandic. Either we split into two different countries or a Handmaid’s Tale type situation occurs. It’s up to us which one happens, I guess. A lot depends on the exact sequence of events. If a lot of elderly MAGA people get really sick and or die in quick succession, then MAGA is going to start murdering people — like me! — in cold blood. But if it’s a series of powerful center-Left political figures who drop then MAGA will cry crocodile tears and be not-so-privately giddy at the prospect of their final consolidation of power. Of course, given that, as the Bible says, “Death be not proud,” at some point both sides are going to suffer so much that maybe we’ll finally see each other as patriots, citizens and humans, not Blue or Red.

But that’s going to be far more down the path than any of us imagine. And, even then, if we do manage to survive as a nation, the moment things go back to normal, we’re likely to be back at each other’s throats. I think any pandemic in the Untied States is going to get a lot worst than we could ever imagine for a number of reasons, making it something of a “perfect storm.” But here are some ideas as to how you would know it was about to strike.

If the reason the States hasn’t had any noticeable uptick in WuFlu cases is they’re not getting picked up because of a combination of societal and general government screw up, how would we know that Corona Virus was actually here?

Well, what’s so chilling about the conditions of that scenario is how bad things would have to get before we realized what was going on. A few things would likely tip us off.

My current theory.

One, popular vacation spots for Americans in the general North America area would faceplant one by one.

Two, notable elderly people would begin to die an alarming rate, which would make news.

Three, people whose job it was to be somewhere — say, TV anchors — wouldn’t show up to work

Lastly, so many people would be really, really sick that it would be difficult for us not to notice that something was up. The frightening thing about this it would make us realize that our entire medical infrastructure had failed us on a massive scale. By the time we realized what was going on, a huge, deep swath of the population would have been infected multiple times by multiple people.

It would be the biggest crisis in American history that history would mention in the same breath with the Civil War and World War II. I only suggest this is even possible because COVID19 is whipping around the globe at an alarming rate and, yet, to date, there have not been any major flair ups in the States.

The World Economic Order
It seems to me that even with 1K in declines in the Dow, the global economy has a good, solid nine or 10 months of pain ahead of it. The pain could be so sharp, so painful that Trump will simply bribe human Electors to stay in office because, well, lulz, fuck you. Trump’s going to finally go transational in his insanity and take the whole country with him before this is over with. And, really, there’s nothing we can do. The entire global order is a dead man walking at this point. What replaces it is any one’s guess. It lasted about 75 years, which isn’t too bad.

Campaign 2020
All things being equal, we need to cancel the 20202 campaign in the USA. Or, put another way, it’s probably going to effectively be canceled at some point if things get bad enough. Once the shock wears off when we finally wake up to 12 hot and warm zones across the country, we’re all going to have to come to grips with the new normal where being in a social situation of any sort is problematic for a few months which will roughly coincide with remainder of the 2020 campaign. There may, if things crest at just the wrong moment, be talk of “postponing” the 2020 Election until sometime in early 2021.

Regional Wars
I can think of four places in the world where cold wars could turn hot. Korea, the Indian Subcontinent, the Middle East and Ukraine-Russia. If all four erupted at the same time, then, well, you got what would be marketed, at least, as World War Three. This would especially be the case if any — or all — of these regional wars went nuclear in some way.

Really, we’re careening towards a few month of global instability not seen in about 75 years. It’s going to be a war, of sorts. A war against COVID19. I used to call it 3W, but I guess WWC would be more accurate — World War COVID19.

Flughazi: ‘American Kraken’ #WuFlu #CoronaVirus

I have no idea what I’m talking about.
Shelton Bumgarner

Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


So, let’s pace this out. If the reason the States hasn’t had any noticeable uptick in WuFlu cases is they’re not getting picked up because of a combination of societal and general government screw up, how would we know that Corona Virus was actually here?

Well, what’s so chilling about the conditions of that scenario is how bad things would have to get before we realized what was going on. A few things would likely tip us off.

One, popular vacation spots for Americans in the general North America area would faceplant one by one.

Two, notable elderly people would begin to die an alarming rate, which would make news.

Yikes!

Three, people whose job it was to be somewhere — say, TV anchors — wouldn’t show up to work

Lastly, so many people would be really, really sick that it would be difficult for us not to notice that something was up. The frightening thing about this it would make us realize that our entire medical infrastructure had failed us on a massive scale. By the time we realized what was going on, a huge, deep swath of the population would have been infected multiple times by multiple people.

It would be the biggest crisis in American history that history would mention in the same breath with the Civil War and World War II. I only suggest this is even possible because WuFlu is whipping around the globe at an alarming rate and, yet, to date, there have not been any major flair ups in the States.

I’m simply struggling to understand what’s going on. What I layout out above is one of several possible options. It’s the absolute worst case scenario, which is my thing.

After was all said and done, of course, then we’d struggle to figure out how it happened. Maybe the person who should be blamed — Donald J. Trump — would be blamed. Maybe he wouldn’t. Maybe I’ll be in an ICE Camp re-education camp after the pandemic, maybe I won’t.

We’ll see on both, now won’t we?

‘Act Of God:’ Trump May Finally Be Politically Felled by ‘Flughazi’

Will never change.
Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

If Trumplandia had a motto, it would be, “Cruelty is the point.” I have come to believe that the Religious Right supports Trump not because they think he’s Jesus Christ, but because they think he’s the anti-Christ and, as such, will bring back Jesus. That particular theory may be put to the test if we pretty much have the end of the world and….Jesus STILL DOESN’T COME BACK.

But the issue is — how bad, really, would a pandemic have to get before Sean Hannity would crawl out of Trump’s butt? Far worse than you could possibly imagine. I figure at least 10 million people would have to die before Fox News might re-think its support for the Dear Leader. Or, put another away, America could be brought to its knees economically directly because of Trump’s dumb policy decisions regarding pandemic and it would be a lulz by Fox News. In a sense, America’s political system is now run by a death cult.

When “the end” comes (at least in the short term) they are likely to make good on all those threats against people like me. Trump will go completely fucking insane, do everything he was planning on doing in his second term, only counted in days instead of months and years. I guess what I’m saying is — the bad guys are a lot more organized than the good guys going into what may be a short-term armageddon. By the time the ship of state is righted, Trump will be even more powerful than he was before. I just don’t see Democrats having the wherewithal to impeach Trump AGAIN over his criminal mishandling of a pandemic. Prove me wrong, Speaker Pelosi.

But you have to admit, it would be ironic if someone so loved by the Religious Right was ultimately brought down by an “act of God.” One could make the case that Trump maybe wasn’t QUITE as loved by the big guy upstairs as MAGA would have us believe. And, remember, it would be difficult to impeach-and-convict Trump for negligence in the middle of a pandemic. He would otherwise be removed through the 25th Amendment, but lulz. Any Congressional trial of Trump over a massive pandemic screw up would be happen long after the event itself was over –say 2022-2023. Trump would be even more powerful and the massive clusterfuck he was directly responsible for would have faded, the economy would have bounced back and Mt. Rushmore would have a new face on it.

In fact, I would say you really would have to have a “Gray Plague” for MAGA to lose its potency. If 10-20 elderly people died then that’s a few less angry white men who will march to the polls no matter what for Trump. I generally believe we’re more likely to go dystopia or division than any type of renewal. This is an example of how the narrative of history isn’t written until after the fact — by the winners.

‘3W:’ The Personal History

We got this.
Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


First, generally, no one listens to me. They see me as a kook and a crank, which, to some extent, I guess I am. And, yet, I do have some value. I am very good at strategic thinking. I learned I had this gift while I was the publisher of ROKon Magazine in Seoul, South Korea. The magazine was a complete disaster — it’s problems and failures were all my own — but the fact that we lasted the few months we did was pretty much because for once in my life I was “cool” and people listened to me. That only happened because of the late, great Annie Shapiro, but that’s a story for a different day.

I often say if the end of the world came, say, a pandemic, I would either be murdered in cold blood the first day by someone who hated me or I would bring figure out a way to bring back civilization. I really believe that. Living in South Korea as an expat for five years really gave me some sense of how to survive when it seems you’re about to die. Everyday as an expat in an adventure and, in a sense, a crisis to be solved.

Anyway, all I know is if the worst happens in the States I really do think I’ll either be dead within the first few days or somehow manage to make life better for my fellow man. I really would rather not have that particular opportunity — I do have a novel to develop after all — but I think simply admitting to myself what may be about to happen is a way of taking the threat to the world, the United States, the people I love and care about –and myself, seriously.

Godspeed, gentle reader. We’re all going to need all the luck we can get in the coming days if the datapoints that are flashing red all over the world are pointing in the direction I believe they may be.

Shelt Garner may be reached at migukin (at) gmail (dot) com. Please don’t be crazy.

#WuFlu Feb 21 Threat Assessment: America’s Coming Apocalyptic Rock Fight

Do it.
Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Given what I know right now, it seems as though when the history of the WuFlu pandemic is written — if we’re still around as a nation (or a race) for it to be written — this weekend will be seen as significant because it’s when we reached another tipping point. America is collectively not only oblivious to its impending doom, we don’t even have enough of a collective response in place to know we’re doomed even if we wanted to be pro-active.

Only three States have WuFlu testing kits. So, it’s possible that people are getting sick and dying of WuFlu (or soon will be) and that metric would read a false negative because it wouldn’t register in the medical system. I have seen a study that there’s no discernable uptick in deaths in general in the States, so maybe people are being misguised with “the Flu” but not dying — yet.

But here are some things to keep in mind.

Economic
Hollywood and the newspaper industry are now dead men walking. If no one goes to the movies for six months and all entertainment production halts for the same amount of time, well, lulz? It’s likely that next year — or whenever we reached the post-pandemic era — what used to be the greater Hollywood industry will be nothing more than a barren post-apocalyptic hellscape, with”immersive media” not-so-slowly replacing it. The traditional print newspaper industry will die because no one will leave their home for the same amount of time. I have a hunch drones are going to become ubiquitous far, far sooner than any of us could have ever imagined if there really is a pandemic. It’s also possible that the American — and global — economy could tank in a way even worse than the Great Recession if places like China, South Korea and Japan have to be written off for three to six months. We might have a brief, but extremely deep depression in late 2020, early 2021.

Political
This one is kind of touchy. A whole slew of elderly people are very powerful in the States and the death rate for WuFlu among the elderly is pretty brutal. So, lulz? If you wiped out a big chunk of the American political establishment over the course off amount six months, then, yikes. And if it happened in the right — or wrong — sequence of events, then MAGA would say it was a “deep state conspiracy” and start killing anyone they didn’t like. Like me! Or, put another way, if things get as bad as I fear, there may not been much of a 2020 Campaign for us to fight over. Or the end result could be significantly more surreal than anything we could possibly imagine. There are also no assurances that the “good guys” will “win.” Or, if they do “win” the cost of that victory could be so huge, so tragic, that we aren’t exactly happy it at the price we had to pay to get it.

Media
The issue for me is, if we actually did find ourselves in the grips of a real live pandemic, inditally it would be marketed as something like 9/11 Redux. That is, of course, until is lingered for weeks and months. Then it wouldn’t be “fun” or “exciting” anymore. It would just be a grim state of existence for millions of people. I fear that Trump would suspend the Constitution at some point and simply arrest anyone — like me! — who wouldn’t simply nod and smile at his tyranny.

National Security
If there really is a pandemic, we could see at least three major regional wars occur at the same time. Israel – Iran, DPRK – ROK and India – Pakistan. And it’s at least within the realm of possibility that the DPRK might lob a few H-Bomb tipped ICBMs towards North America which, of course, will greatly increase the number of deaths associated with the the general pandemic event. Also, given how divided the United States is, I don’t really believe we’d make it. I think we’d descend into mass political violence chaos and, if we’re lucky, split into two different nations. One center-Left, one center-Right. If we’re lucky. If we’re not lucky, we get American Killing Fields! Lulz!?

In general, I still can’t make an education opinion as to our fate. Maybe this is going to blow over. Or maybe it won’t. Lulz?

The Gray Plague: ‘We All Bleed The Same Colored Blood’ #WuFlu

Don’t Panic!
Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner


It seems to me that Twitter Liberals are embarrassing themselves right now. WuFlu is whipping around the global at an alarming rate and they’re so obsessed with giving us hottakes on the 2020 Campaign that they’re completely oblivious to what’s going on.

What really bothers me is MAGA seems very excited at the prospect of a pandemic. I don’t know what the hell is going on with them at that level. Anyway, if things get as bad as I fear, we’re going to have to start seeing each other as patriots, citizens and humans, not Blue and Red. If we don’t do that sooner rather than later, well, we’re fucked. A lot of people might do for no reason if we don’t get our act together.

The key thing is, we’re not ready on a number of different levels. And one of those levels is the media. If the States finally got sucked into the pandemic blackhole, then CNN would initially try to market it as a 9/11 type event, when, in fact, it won’t be an event at all, but rather a process. It would be more like a war than a battle, in other words. The American press hasn’t had to cover a war in real terms like the one we might face since WWII and so there’s no institutional memory as to what to do. There’s likely to be something of a learning curve for a lot of people.

But that’s the worst case. I think we’ll be fine. The key issue is, how bad do things have to get for us to stop seeing the process through the prism of surreal partisan politics? Probably far worst than we might realize. I’ve always said the only way we’ll get rid of Trump is something “extra political” and gross mismanagement of a pandemic seems to fit the bill. In other words, if Trump completely loses his mind because of a pandemic then, if we survive as a nation and a species, then, well, maybe four Republican senators might vote for witnesses? Oh, sorry, wrong clusterfuck.

For me, the big issue is this chart.

Yikes!

If we have a “Gray Plague” and 3.6% – 15% of the population over 60 croaks rather abruptly, well, that’s a lot of pretty powerful people who run the world right now. That would be the stuff of some pretty astonishing historical change in a very short amount of time. This weekend is crucial. If things clam down by Sunday, then we can go back to cursing the bred and worrying about the Fourth Reich.

‘The Gray Plague:’ The Potential Political Scenario

Shelton Bumgarner

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

After a few days of personal freak out, I’ve grown rather blase about what’s going on in Asia right now. This happening in large part because, well, while it’s all very tragic, the average American simply doesn’t care and won’t care until it becomes something other than an abstract in our collective clueless national conciousness.

There’s a 14% death rate for WuFlu for people 80 years of age.

And, really, it might stay that way. I have come to stay that 1 million Chinese could die in Wuhan and as long as Vox tell us it’s the *flu* we should really be worried about, then, well, lulz. So, as of right now, we might see a little bit of a slowdown in the global economy because of WuFlu, but not enough to stop the Russians from throwing the 2020 election to Trump AGAIN. Trump’s never leaving office, anyway, unless the doofus Crown Prince Don Jr. is assured as his successor at some point. I still think Trump’s going to demand a Constitutional Convention to “pass a balanced budget amendment” then turn around and pass American Enabling Acts, but that’s just me.

But, for the sake of argument, let’s assume the absolute worst happens and my fears of a “Gray Plague” become a reality. The chief thing we have to understand is how old most of the most powerful people in the United States government are. And, what’s worst, our political system is about as taunt as you can get — if there was a Gray Plague and a lot of old people dropped dead suddenly, if the sequence of events wasn’t right, the Right would start to blow shit up because they would be ABSOLUTELY SURE the Deep State was out to get people on their side.

Of course, if, say, three major figures on the center-Left dropped, the MAGA fuckheads would gloat, mumble it was all “God’s will” as they worked to squeeze every once of political advantage out of it. If any MAGA person abruptly became president in the middle of a pandemic, they would use the opportunity not to help their fellow man, but burn the nation to the ground and establish a Fourth Reich. The fuckers. But if, say, a center-Left person was put in the same position, a civil war would start immediately because MAGA would assume “muh guns” and kill anyone who was different than what they feel America looks like. I’m not joking, I’m not exaggerating. This would happen.

It makes you wonder how many people would have to die for us to finally look past scoring short term political points to the point that we actually begin to put the needs of the nation first. A million? Five million? 10 Million? 20 Million? How enormous, really, would the human tragedy of the Gray Plague have to be for Sean Hannity to finally shut the fuck up about Hillary Clinton’s email server?

Of real concern is what would happen if the 30 year movement towards a majority-minority America happened not in decades but in months? What if, say, 30-50 million Americans (mostly elderly) died between the first report of a hotzone outside of Wuhan and when the vaccine was widely available? What makes that question difficult to process is it would be more like a war than anything else that we’ve ever experienced as a nation.

If an entire generation of the American political class got wiped out over the course of little under a year, there would be massive implications going forward. Probably what would happen is the country wouldn’t make it. The Second American Civil War that we may face in 20 years, might happen in a matter of months. But, I don’t know. Who knows. Anything could happen.

I can’t predict the future and don’t have reveled truth. Just stay aware of what’s going on.

V-Log: #WuFlu & The Birth Of The Fourth Reich

The End