Tag: LLMs

The Economic & Political Implications of The Petite Singularity: AI, Robotics & The Future Of MAGA

By Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Any discussion of what I’m about to talk about must address the huge MAGA elephant in the room — it’s very possible that we may have to go through something along the lines of WW3 before we reach any sort of Singularity, petite or otherwise.

But, for the sake of argument, let’s assume that Trump somehow doesn’t manage to kill about 1 billion people when he is re-elected and in an effort to remake the global order in his image causes WW3 to break out. Let’s say we continue to have relative peace and prosperity.

It definitely seems as though by about 2030 that some combination AI and android technology make totally upend and disrupt the currently human-dominated service industry. There would likely to be an number of unexpected side effects.

The most obvious is, of course, a real push for some sort of Universal Basic Income. I could see this being paid for by some combination of a 30% vat and the taxation of the economic activity of non-human actors. (Though I know some Objectivists who think ANY taxation is theft, even if the “thing” being taxed isn’t even human. Ugh.)

The other, less obvious side-effect of the wide spread use of AI and androids would be that there would be no DDD jobs for undocumented immigrants to fill. Now, apparently some conservatives are soooooo racist that they somehow think that undocumented people will still come to America even if they’re going to starve to death because there are no jobs for them.

But, I think any reasonable person can assume that if all service jobs and all DDD jobs are done by AI androids that, well, that might single-handedly solve a few macro problems in the American body politic. There’s a reason why Japan has been obsessed androids for decades — they knew they would need them because of a lack of new babies.

So, if there was a snap, massive rollout of AI androids in the US it’s possible that the weird bending of in America’s political system that has caused MAGA to warp everything might subside and we might go back to “normal.” Or not, maybe things will just get worse because the plutocrat oligarchs who would control the AI androids would use those very same androids to control the everyone.

Ugh.

The Web Is Dead, Long Live The Web

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I really hate the modern Web sometimes. I hate how boring it is. I hate that I have to use a browser — or an app. What I want is to have the Web replaced by a bunch of LLM that talk to each other.

Or, I don’t know, it would be cool if I had a LLM that knew every quirk of my personality to the point that it could “pre-emptively” answer my questions before I even asked them. Or something like that.

Of course, the dark side to this is everyone would fall in love with their LLM, like in the movie Her. But ignoring that problem, I want to information to come to me via LLM, rather than me have to search it out.

It makes you think about how maybe the major national newspapers might need to invest in LLM. Because it definitely seems as though everything on the Web is about to change in a rather abrupt manner. Almost overnight, it could be that the very notion of using a “browser” will seem quaint.

This will only accelerate as LLMs become a commodity. That seems to be inevitable.

Logically, Our ‘Her’ Movie Future Will Be Powered By The House That Steve Built

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

If you believe — as I do — that they’re rushing towards a future that is very similar to that imagined in the movie “Her,” then, well, it definitely seems as though Apple would be the company to make it happen.

They don’t have a profitable search engine business to protect and they have gobs and gobs and gobs of money to throw at creating a top-tier LLM. And, what’s more, they are at the forefront of XR technology with their Vision Pro.

But, as I always say, I can’t predict the future. I have no idea what is going to happen. And, yet, I would suggest you keep an eye on what Apple does in the next 18 months with XR and LLM.

I think it’s at least possible that were about to have a thunderclap of innovation around the fusion of XR and LLM technologies to such an extent that it might cause a severe recession and the loss of millions of jobs. But, we’ll see, I guess.

Imagining The Reality Of Our ‘Her’ Movie Future

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Here are some basic existing things that I’m using to game out the ultimate demise of the “passive Web” by, say, the end of the decade. (Excluding a pause to get the outcome of The Fourth Turning sorted out, of course.)

The first is the growing power and popularity of Large Language Models. Another is the growing power of computing hardware in general. Another is the fact that there is some techno-cultural determinism in LLMs solving some pretty basic problems with the Web as we know it. And last would be improving XR technology.

Ok, with all that in mind, it’s pretty easy to imagine that we literally could live in a Her movie-like future pretty soon. Everyone will wear a earpiece that allows them to have real-time conversations with a LLM digital assistant. The LLM’s dataset will be the entirety of the Web. The LLM will be finely tuned to your specific personality to the point that all of today’s bitching and moaning by conservatives about chatbot “bias” will seem quaint and silly.

Instead of searching Google, we will have casual, personal conversations throughout the day about whatever it is we need to know. Websites will no longer exist — or will no longer get the (human) traffic that they get today. And here is where XR technology fits in.

Instead of the passive use of a “browser” to read a New York Times article, you will actively be presented the contents you’re interested in by your LLM — probably displayed as a multimedia AR experience at your demand. The connection between AI and XR is not as obvious as maybe it should be. It seems to me that the two will feed on each other so that both are trillion dollar industries by 2030. (Again, baring the United States collapsing into civil war / revolution because of fucking ding-dong Trump.)

The thing about it is, all of this could happen really, really fast. Within just a few months, content on the Web could collapse into a Singularity with little or no direct human interaction with it. An entire genre of media will no longer be relevant at all.

Even all the microblogging services that have popped up might no longer needed because the real-time news element of the services will be replaced with you having a really interesting, personal conversation with your digital personal assistant.

Or, at the very least, what you might previously get via Twitter or Bluesky, you will see via a XR display that you wear most of the time.

Besides the obvious historical and political obstacles to this happening, there might be some human resistance to what seems to make total sense today. As such, maybe it’s not 2030 that no one reads The New York Times website anymore, but, say, 2033 or later.

But it’s coming. I just don’t see how the Web continues to exist in its present form.

The End Of The Web

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

The crux of much of the money made in the Internet era has been slapping ads on solving the problem of there being a deluge of information on the Web. But it is growing more and more apparent to me that it’s at least possible that as we careen towards a “Her” movie type future, that the Web could collapse into something akin to a technological Singularity.

The entire modern Web paradigm will evaporate into into simply interacting with a hyper-personalized LLM. So, rather than a Google-style one to many situation we have now where we all go to Google to ask a question, we will each have a LLM specifically tweaked to our personal proclivities.

What’s more, the Web itself will no longer exist.

There are elements of this potential future that I can’t quite game out yet. What about video or music? How does any one make any money off of content if all content is simply fed directly into a LLM that then, in turn, tells end users about that content?

I think we have to contemplate the idea that the next trillion dollars in tech will be made from whomever can scale Her-like software. So, rather than a smart phone, you’ll have some sort of device that interfaces with a LLM. The end product will be much like what is seen in Her or even the Apple prototype commercial from way back when where a dude talks to a high end digital personal assistant.

As such, it seems Apple would be the most obvious company to benefit from this because they don’t have a profitable search business to protect AND they have a unified software and hardware ecosystem.

The issue of online content, however, is a much more difficult thing to process. But it is easy to imagine that LLM hooked up to a real-time feed of the Internet could market the final death of all media online. If your LLM uses the ENTIRE INTERNET (including the Dark Web) as its dataset, the fact that at the moment you only can get “suggestions” about a portion of the Internet’s vast content becomes quite moot and quaint.

The LLM will simply digest all of human knowledge and give you a specific answer specifically tailored to your personality and needs. It will know everything about you and so there will be something akin to “preemptive search” that takes place.

But, again, how will some future interation of The New York Times make any money? I honestly don’t know at this point. Maybe they will be paid to feed their content directly into the LLM? But I do know that the Web as we currently conceive of it is lurching towards its doom.

The Potential Implications Of Google’s Gemini LLM For Hollywood

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Apparently, Google is coming out with a next-generation LLM called Gemini later this year, in December. It’s allegedly going to be four times as powerful as OpenAI’s ChatGTP4.

The thing I’m interested in is the implications for Hollywood. It’s well within the realm of possible that the two strikes that Hollywood is experiencing at the moment will still be going on. If Gemini turns out to be as powerful as Google claims, I wonder if it’s possible that Hollywood suits might begin to turn to Gemini to make the strikes…moot.

Or, put another way, it could be that all my “hysterical doom shit” about the future of Hollywood could happen a lot sooner than we might think. It could be that the Hollywood suits will simply sit on their hands until Gemini is up and running. Then, this spring, they will start to spit out the first AI-generated movies.

Or not. I don’t know enough about what’s possible. But the point remains — things are moving very quickly with LLMs and I think we have to begin to understand that Hollywood is about to go through a massive technological shift in ways that we can barely begin to understand.

I’m At A Loss As To What To Think About Google Scraping Google Docs To Train AI

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

There is nothing short of panic on Tik-Tok from writers like me who use Google Docs. A number of people have Tik-Tok have urgently suggested that all writers take all of their writing off of Google Docs immediately and use Word instead (or whatever.)

I find this very curious for a number of reasons.

I understand where these writers are coming from, and, yet, I’ve actually looked into the scraping Google is doing and it seems a little too late to worry about such things. Now only is AI everywhere now, but I just don’t know how much my writing is going to make a difference if Google is scraping the entirety of Google Docs to train their LLMs.

Some of the hysterical talk on Tik-Tok seems just that — hysterical doom shit that assumes there’s some way to prevent, completely one’s words from somehow, someway being used to train LLMs.

But I will at amit that I just don’t know. Maybe I’m missing something. Maybe if I just turn to Word I can somehow, magically, prevent anything I write from finding itself in the maw of AI.

At the moment, I’m taking a very measured wait-and-see approach. While I understand that if I keep my writing on Google Docs that it may, in some way, influence Google’s LLMs, it’s not like my, specific writing and ideas are going to magically pop up somewhere and be produced by Google Movies.

Or maybe I’m wrong. Maybe that’s exactly what is going to happen. I just don’t know at the moment.

Of AI….& Tik-Tok Reading Our Fucking Minds?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It hasn’t happened that much recently, but Tik-Tok continues to seem to have a very…eerie…ability to pin down exact elements of my internal monologue. It’s all very curious. I’ve kind of learned to shut up about it, though, because mentioning my fears on this subject causes people to look at me funny.

But Tik-Tok continues to figure me out on such a specific manner — seemingly in real time — that there are two solutions to the issue. One, Tik-Tok has really good AI to the point that it can figure what’s going on in my mind simply from analyzing my usage…or it can fucking read not just my mind, but everyone’s mind!

I don’t think Tik-Tok is reading my mind, but I do think that however it’s figuring out what’s going on in my mind should be regulated — hopefully out of existence. What is the spookiest about what Tik-Tok does is the near-real time nature of it.

If what was going on was a general figuring out of me as a person, it wouldn’t be such a big deal. What is alarming is I think about something really hard and….then with 24 hours I get pushed some obscure thing on Tik-Tok that makes very clear reference to what I was thinking about.

Very strange. Very odd.

But absolutely no one listens to me. And if they did listen to me, they would think I had lost my mind. So, no. Like I said, I don’t think Tik-Tok can read my mind….but something…..strange…is going on.

What, though?

Is Madison Beer….Real?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I’m not being serious, obviously, but I sometimes wonder if Madison Beer is a a Simone kind of AI-generated personality. I’ve never heard her voice, even though she’s a “singer.” She’s got a perfect smile and a great body. So, while, yes, she’s obviously, real, we’re careening towards point where you could actually pull off a Simone-type AI generated celebrity, parasocial relationships and all, pretty easily.

I say this because it’s going to happen soon enough, one way or another. Once we figure out if America is going to have a revolution / civil war or turn into an autocracy, the thing thing we’re going to address is all the amazing cultural changes that are going to happen because of AI.

We may have to bomb ourselves into oblivion to get the “cool stuff” of AI, though.

Anyway. I think all human-generated art is probably going to fade away. It’s just a matter of how long it takes. It may be 10 or 20 years, but, in the end, Hollywood as we know it — actors and all — will be more industry built on software than celluloid.

AI is going to sucker punch Hollywood actors, directors and actors in a pretty astonishing way, leaving producers sitting pretty. Will a Simone of the future be able to win an Oscar? That’s a question we’re going to have to ask ourselves as a species, I’m afraid.

The End Of (Human Generated) Art?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

As we all wake up from the Superhero movie era daze we’ve been in for 20 years, I think maybe we aren’t asking the right question. The question isn’t, “What type of movie genre will replace Superhero movies?” but, rather, “Is this the twilight of not just mass media, but human generated art?”

It’s very possible that a lot sooner than you might think, AI sensors on your TV and phone hooked up to “Her”-like technology will generate movies, TV shows, songs and — gulp — novels, that are designed specifically for what you want at that specific moment because of your mood.

Some 99% of what is generated by the hand of man when it comes to art is shit and, as such, 99% of all art could very well be, well, AI generated shit. AND, there won’t be any mass media anymore, no shared reality.

As such, the Singularity won’t come with us uploading our minds into computers, but with the very idea of human-generated art for profit being seen as a quaint notion of a bygone era. And that dystopian nightmare is probably going to happen a lot — A LOT — sooner than you think.

If it happens at all, that is.

And add the general tendency to name, shame and drug anyone who is “different” and, lulz, our posthuman future may already be here.