Tag: We Are So Fucked

Stay Of Play For The Russo-Ukrainian Winter War For March 2, 2022: Contemplating The Fall Of Kyiv


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

We really need to manage our expectations when it comes to this war in the near term. It could very well be that the Russians will “win” in the near term simply because they’re bloodthirsty enough to burn Ukraine to the ground to get what they want.

My fear for the future of Ukraine.

Part of this would be the fall of Kyiv.

What worries me is not so much what this would mean for events on the ground — the Ukrainians would keep fighting, no matter what — as it it would mean for the Western media narrative.

If and when Kyiv falls, then the Western media might grow a lot more doom -and -gloom about Ukraine’s prospects. To the point that they might move on to the next big news event. Which, come to think of it, they are going to do anyway, given the impending arrival of the political silly season later on this year as part of the the 2022 mid-terms.

So, in a sense, if the Russians don’t sue for peace, but rather escalate things and simply burn Ukraine to the ground, the whole thing might become background noise to the more pressing issue of Trump potentially becoming Speaker of the House in 2023.

Thus, I think we may look back on 2016 as the last “normal” year we’re going to have for a long, long time. In fact, the era between 2016 and, maybe 2030 could be seen as a macro “Great Reset” that either leaves humanity united and able to handle Big Issues like Global Climate change or hopelessly divided to the point that our continued existence is moot.

Anyway, the the clock is ticking. If the Russo-Ukrainian Winter war drags on beyond winter and is still going strong this fall, then everything will be different. If it’s still going on next year, then the quisling MAGA politicians who will then be running Congress may lulz the whole thing since they’ll be impeaching both Biden and Harris repeatedly.

The Fate Of Russia


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

History may not repeat itself, but it does rhyme. So, it seems logical to assume that we have to begin taking seriously the idea that Putin’s Russia is going to rapidly grow unstable.

Everything from a simple palace coup to revolution then civil war is possible at this point. You thought a war between Ukraine and Russia was bad, just wait until a nation full of WMD implodes with no ready endgame.

Call it the Great Reset or the Fourth Turning, history has suddenly and violently woken from its somnambulism. This is one of those inflection points where anything can, and will happen.

The great maw of history is now open, tearing up decades of stability, norms and tradition in what seems like the blink of an eye. And, honestly, I think this is just the beginning of a much longer period of global instability. I say this because the United States remains on course to face the existential choice of civil war or autocracy in the 2024 – 2025 timeframe.

And that would just be the beginning of that process.

Either way — autocracy or civil war — the likelihood of WW3 happening would greatly increase because in either case the United States would likely be knocked out of global commission for the foreseeable future. If Trump becomes president again, in could very well pull us out of NATO as part of his fascist America First agenda.

Or, if we have a civil war, then we bomb ourselves into oblivion…opening the door to WW3 happening because, well, lulz, we will be too preoccupied destroying ourselves to do anything about it.

All I can say is — gird your loins. The remainder of this decade could, in fact, be very, very bumpy. Talk about vibe shift! It could be so bumpy, in fact, that either we endup in an extremely divided, hostile world or a far more united world that is prepared to deal with Big Issues like global climate change.

I Was Right, Kinda


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Well, I was right about there being something of a Republican civil war because of Ukraine, with the MAGA base following the lead of Trump and the Republican Establishment wanting to support Ukraine.

And, yet, I suspect it’s never going to come up to the point of a “civil war.” I think there will just be a lot of tension between the two groups. Remember, Trump can always take his scrambled marbles — the base — and go home if the Establishment gets too frisky.

So, ultimately, what will happen is Republicans rather than have any civil war will simply ignore that they’re trying to square the circle in the first place. Trump, his toadies and the base will continue to suck Putin’s cock and the Republican Establishment will continue to support Ukraine against Russia. Because everything is dumb, both things will be true and Republicans won’t event acknowledge this existential conflict.

The MAGA New Right Sure Is Chomping At The Bit To Start Political Violence, Aren’t They?


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

So, my Traditionalist relatives have, on occasion, asked me if I forswear political violence. Which is both dumb and insulting. Of course I’m against political violence! Jesus Christ!

The fact that the MAGA New Right is chomping at the bit to start a civil war makes this question even more idiotic. Even a Traditionalist who has “tuned out” from politics should know by now that there are a number of conservative thought leaders who really, really, want an excuse to murder people like me in cold political blood.

So, instead of worrying about ME wanting political violence, I think my Traditionalist relatives need to get their own home in order. Or is that just “bogus?” For those of you who aren’t into debate nullification when you’re losing, just look at what’s going on with Canada’s trucker crisis.

That crisis is going to come to the US soon enough. And, as I understand it, March 3rd — for some reason — could be some sort of successor to January 6th. I don’t know the details, but that’s what I’m seeing on Twitter. This is a developing and potentially very unstable situation. It could be like January 6th, only much, much worse.

Anyway. We need to be aware that the MAGA New Right may very well force the issue. The question then will be is how receptive people are to fucking shit up when the MAGA New Right decides to see if they can bring down the government through a General Strike or some such. (Especially in the context of this potentially happening — and working — in Canada.)

And the craziest part of all of this is if they would just be peaceful and patient, they could get everything — and I mean everything — they wanted through peaceful political means. Everything is there. All they have to do is just not blow it all by starting a civil war.

And, yet, here we are.

I’m going back to the five novels I’m working on that no one in my family cares about — they won’t even read anything I write even when I ask them to!

‘Hysterical Doom Shit:’ Of Trump & Classified Documents



by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

It takes a lot more than it did for Trump to make me angry. And my Traditionalists relatives think I’m being “hysterical” for thinking Trump is going to run again — especially if he gets into serious legal trouble — so, meh. Their only red line is personal when it comes to Trump — and by personal, I mean me dead in a ditch at the hands of ICE. THEN, and only THEN they will get upset about what an autocrat Trump is.

Then I’ll be dead.

And I won’t be “hysterical” anymore because I’ll be dead.

Fuck that, by the way.

Anyway, the news that Trump did on a massive scale exactly what Hillary Clinton was accused of when it came to classified documents enrages me. Makes me white hot with rage. Makes me pop a gasket with rage. Makes me want to throw myself into the five novels that no one in my family cares about. (That was the point of writing the novels in the first place — to give myself some outlet for my center-of-the-sun-rage over the Trump Administration.)

What makes me so angry is every argument that my Traditionalists relatives would make to knee-jerk defend Trump because they hate my politics could be used to defend Hillary Clinton in 2016. But any argument that I make that works too well is “bogus.”

The thing that makes all of this worse is, in the end, Trump’s eating of classified documents, his flushing them down the toilet, will only last less than one news cycle. So, Hillary’s “but her emails” lasted for months and months and months and Trump doing far, far worse is just a blip on the media scene.

I do have one question — what, exactly, were the nature of the classified documents Trump wanted to keep? Was he stealing specific documents that had to do with Russia, Ukraine, the DPRK or the Saudis? If any of those nations were involved, well, that takes the controversy to the next level.

Then it will be promptly forgotten. Trump runs again, (“No he won’t,” I hear you say.) wins and I get to be hysterical and peddling doom shit again.

Oh well.

The Case For Civil War

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

First, a Second American Civil War would be very destructive and very, very dumb. The people who seem to talk about it all the time in terms of a “National Divorce,” the fucking MAGA New Right cocksuckers, are the ones who can get everything they want peacefully by just being patient.

If there is going to be a Second American Civil War, it will be caused not by the MAGA New Right, but by the Blue States — probably starting with California — attempting to leave the Union. It would happen at the weakness moment of the new American Autocracy’s establishment – at some point between Election Day 2024 and Certification Day 2025.

California leaving the Union would trigger a civil war as other Blue States left the Union, taking huge swaths of the Federal Army with them, just like in the original Civil War. Then both sides seize WMD and we bomb ourselves into the Stone Age of our own volution.

So, what possible case is there for a civil war?

All I got is it would be a high risk, high reward way of fixing some systemic problems in the United States. But it only works if there is a pat ending to it like the first Civil War. If the ending is open ended or vague or muddled, then, well, maybe we should all just try to make do in an autocracy — or leave the country if we can.

A Second American Civil War would only make sense if the war aims of the Blue States were to spread the liberal-progressive ideals of California to the entire United States. This, of course, would cause maybe 10% of the Red State population to simply leave the United States and we would have to figure out how to address all that, too.

It would probably take at least 20 to 40 years for the United States (or whatever it’s call at that point) to recover from a WMD-tipped Second American Civil War. So, I honestly can’t think of any reason why we should have a civil war. If you have the ability to get out of the country as we slip peacefully into autocracy under a President Pompeo (or name a would-be autocrat), do so.

God speed.

The MAGA New Right’s Continued Delusional Belief of a Coming Fascist ‘Revolution’


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I know what’s happening. Good old boys, angry at this or that thing they feel liberal-progressives are doing to “force” them to become radicalized, think up the worst thing they can to do to liberals. They snap their fingers and say, “Revolution!”

But that’s not really how things work, if history is any guide.

Fascist, in general, usually don’t seize power as part of a “revolution.” In fact, most of the time, they just win elections and never let go of power. Anyway. Even in Canada, where they’re some instability from truckers camping out in protest of vaccine mandates, I don’t seen any kind of Right wing “revolution.” A coup of some sort, maybe that might prompt a civil war, but not a “revolution.”

The point is — things are not great right now in the Anglophone world. In fact, I think there may be a point when future historians look back upon this era as the “Crisis of Anglophone Civilization.” The fascists are ascendant and, in the end, barring something I can’t expect — like a civil war where the Blue liberal-progressives win — we’re in for a New Era, where the Anglophone world is no longer associated with Western democracy.

Lulz. There are no easy answers on this one. If even the polite people of Canada are having problems with Right wing nutjobs, then Anglophone civilization is facing some systemic problems that are going to have long-lasting consequences for everyone on this little blue marble in space.

What’s The Matter With Canada?

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

I honestly don’t know what’s going on with Canada at the moment, other than what I see passively — and occasionally — on Twitter. I’ve decided to bone up on this issue, however, because things are turning dark rather quickly. My fear is that the truckers who are now apparently camped out around the Canadian Capitol in the middle of winter will radicalize and stage a January 6-like attempted coup.

Given what I know about Canadian politics — that things can change there rather abruptly because of the small population size — my concern is that things might get out of hand a lot sooner than anyone might predict. The next thing you know, some sort of Right wing dictatorship, long predicted for the United States, will happen in Canada (of all places) first.

If something like that did happen, it would only destabilize the United States even more. And, let me be clear, if you’re reading this and getting off on the idea that the United States — or Canada for that matter — might have a Right wing dictatorship soon: please fuck off you piece of shit.

Anyway, the point is — the entire anglophone world is in crisis at the moment for various reasons. New Zealand is the only one that seems to be acting normal at the moment. All the others are veering from crisis to crisis of their own making.

My Hot Take On A Traditionalist Party To Challenge The GQP

by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

From what I can tell from talking to my Traditionalist relatives, it would be very, very difficult to pry them away from the GQP. But if I was tasked with doing just that, how would I do it?

It would be extremely difficult.

But, I think, maybe, if you focused on attacking the events of January 6th and how weird and out of character that day was for American politics, you might have a back door of sorts. I know one of my Traditionalist relatives no longer supports Ted Cruz because of his poor performance on that day.

And, yet, Republican Politics is such a shit show that prying conservatives-who-aren’t-MAGA away from their current complicit love of MAGA would be extremely, extremely difficult.

In fact, the only wedge you might be able to put between Traditionalists and the GQP is the violence of January 6th. That’s pretty much the only place you can get any votes, I’m afraid. The macro momentum is just too powerful otherwise.

In other words, in every other way, we’re fucked. Totally, completely fucked.

Americans, Worry About Canada


by Shelt Garner
@sheltgarner

Let me begin by saying I’m not an expert on Canadian culture and or politics and this is just a gauzy reflection on what little I know about the place. But the key issue is — the current “Make Canada Great Again” anti-vaccine mandate trucker camp out in Ottawa is dangerous.

I say this because the entire anglophone world is in crisis. And, even more importantly, Canada has such a small population that the whole “5%” of the population rule to make a revolution is even more timely.

So, it’s at least possible to imagine a situation where the truckers spark something that is marketed as a “Right wing revolution” in Canada. This, in turn, would embolden the fucking insane Right wing nutjobs in the United States.

Or, put another way — keep an eye on Canada. It might grow a lot more unstable in the near future than any of us in North America — and beyond — may like.