As of the moment, I believe we’re not going to get the debt ceiling crisis worked out in time and, for the first time, the US is going to default on its debt. Things could change, but the momentum at the moment is definitely towards default.
In other words, we’re fucked.
Pray.
I still doubt there’s going to be a MAGA New Right themed “revolution” anytime soon, but going through a massive global economic crisis of your own making isn’t exactly great for a nation’s stability.
Once you knock out one of the pillars of a stable government — the economy — the entire political system won’t be far behind. I say this, especially since the Republican Party is now a vigilante group that is so wrapped up in negative polarization that it would rather destroy the country than work with Democrats.
I guess what I’m saying is — whatever you would do in preperation of a worst case scenario economic crisis on a personal basis — do that. Now.
This is another in my series of answering the searches about a civil war or revolution that bring people to this site. This one was from — you guessed it — Alabama.
Short answer: probably around January 2025, if it happens.
Long Answer: very good question.
That someone in Alabama would casually ask when the Second Civil War is going to start gives you some insight into how bad things are at the moment. But as of right now, I think if we do have a Second Civil War it will happen at some point after Election Day 2024 and before Certification Day in January 2025.
An actual hot civil war in the United States would be only one end of a spectrum of potential outcomes, with the an autocracy being on the other end. And lot depends on what Donald Trump does. If he runs for president again and is the nominee, he is so fucking idiotic and incompetent that he might, just by continuing to be a political force, push the United States into civil war.
But there is always a small chance that well before 2024 – 2025, some unexpected event might start a hot civil war in the United States well before the two sides (or I) expect it. Remember, for it to be a “civil war” you would need a government and troops. If it’s just a bunch of idiots in a rural part of Oregon and that’s it, well, that’s not even a revolution.
You would need some sort of mass attack on the civil Federal authority on a state level for it to be a real “civil war.” And, as such, my best guess is, at the moment, those conditions will be met when the government is at its weakest — between Election Day 2024 and Certification Day 2025.
I will note that I think we’re in a similar situation as about 1857, only things are begin speed up and feel slower because the pace of modern life is so much faster. But, as they say, people go bankrupt gradually then all at once, so it’s possible that my fears about a civil war will be justified a lot sooner than I currently expect.
But something really out of the blue would have to happen for the country to actually have a civil war anytime soon as of late 2021. We’ll see, I guess.
It’s becoming more and more clear to me that the modern day War Democrats of The Lincoln Project et al will be the leadership of the Blue States if we have a Second American Civil War.
While there are plenty of great center-Left leaders who would rise to the occasion if the shit hit the fan, it’s a tough-as-nails broad like Liz Cheney who will get the fucking job done. I don’t know how it would work, but if we reach a point where the United States is actively attacking itself in a civil war, then principled leadership will rise to the top.
As such, I suspect that ultimately, it won’t be AOC who leads Blue States, but someone like Cheney. There will be endless howls at first from Leftists at such a “betrayal” but when Cheney proves she’s an American Iron Lady they will shut up. I love you, AOC, babe, but you’re still too young, too unfocused and too unserious to get us through a fucking civil war.
U.S. Representative Liz Cheney (R-WY) delivers an opening statement during the opening hearing of the U.S. House (Select) Committee investigating the January 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol, on July 27, 2021 at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, DC. During its first hearing the committee, currently made up of seven Democrats and two Republicans, will hear testimony from law enforcement officers about their experiences while defending the Capitol from the pro-Trump mob on January 6. (Photo by Jim Bourg-Pool/Getty Images)
Cheney, meanwhile, is locked and loaded to destroy the MAGA New Right with everything she’s got.
And it won’t just be Cheney. If things grow existential, most of the Blue State leadership will probably eventually be NeverTrumpers. It will be extremely ironic and probably cause some surreal post-war events as everything snaps back into place, but in the moment of crisis, it will get the job done.
But I’m still being very speculative. It could be that we don’t have a civil war and we simply slip peacefully into autocracy. People like Cheney are either arrested, pushed out a window or exiled and that will be that.
It’s difficult to make a one-to-one comparison between the modern United States and early 30s Germany for one crucial reason: Germany was a parliamentary system, while the United States has an presidential system based on balance of powers and an Electoral College.
A more honest depiction of the American political system on the ground would show the American Fascist Party being the biggest party, only countered — at the moment — by a large center-Left coalition. If we had a parliamentary system like German, we would all be freaking the fuck out a lot more because it would be a lot more obvious how dire our situation is.
The Democratic Party is really a center-Left coalition of anti-fascist parties, socialists, moderates, Labor, etc. That’s why it’s so difficult to get the party to do anything — it’s not even really a party, but a jumble of different smaller parties fused together because of how we election our presidents.
Or, put another way — the Electoral College, on a systemic level, is luling us into a false sense of security. It’s difficult for us to comprehend that one of the two major political parties in the United States no longer believes in democracy and are hell bent on establishing an autocratic White Christian ethno state. They will stop at nothing to do this, to the point that they would rather wreck the world economy than have any form of bipartisanship.
Politics is now dead in the United States. In a post-political environment, you’re pretty much just waiting for some sort of crisis to spark some sort of violent historical event be it revolution or civil war.
Also, note that if we were a parliamentary system it would be a lot more clear how dire things are because it would be growing more and more difficult for us to form a government. What the fascists GQP New Right Republicans are doing with the debt ceiling would have an immediate effect as opposed to causing a crisis that would only be felt at the polls in about a year.
The point is — the United States is far, far more unstable than you might think. At the moment, the only thing holding the country together is, well, the political system that the Electoral College mandates. That’s why the next crisis will be severe and it will happen either in 2022 or 2024.
It definitely feels as though we’ve reached the end of the beginning when it comes to the Final Countdown. What’s it going to be, American history — autocracy or civil war? At the moment, there are too many known unknowns for me to be able to wargame that out.
So, for the moment, I’m at a loss to tell you what to think of Liz Cheney pretty obviously running for POTUS — as a Republican!
As it stands, people are beginning to wake up to the cold hard fact that we’re fucked. We’re totally, completely fucked. And the only unknown is if we get fucked via fascism or fucked via civil war. That’s it. Those are only two options at this point. (I guess, you could say that maybe, just maybe we might get a military junta, but I doubt it.)
Or, put another way, American politics is now very similar to that of around 1857. We all kinda of know that either Slave Power (MAGA) wins a final victory or we hash it out via a civil war that would be extremely high risk, high reward.
Having said all that, Liz Cheney probably has a better shot of becoming President Harris’ Unity Ticket Veep done out of desperation than she does winning the Republican nomination in 2024.
Republicans are so, on a systemic level, unmoored from the traditional concepts of a party that is associated with a liberal democracy that there is no way in hell she could possibly win the Republican nomination. And if Trump bows out for some reason, Republicans are more likely to pick Gen. Mike Flynn as his successor than Liz Cheney.
Let that sink in.
But for anyone paying attention, things are kind of dark right now. Maybe a lot dark. Because all the macro trends point to The Fourth Turning taking place in, as predicted 2025. We’re so totally fucked. Totally, completely, fucked.
We have to stop getting mad on Twitter. Or making fun of the dumb things that the MAGA New Right says or does. Things have gotten serious and existential if you think of yourself as a small-d democrat.
Ok, I’m in a writing mood at the moment and so here’s what the fucking MAGA New Right cocksuckers want — a scenario whereby we have some sort of “MAGA New Right Revolution” sooner rather than later.
First, we need to know what the conditions of the scenario will be. The fucking Bannonites want a “revolution” instead of a “civil war,” so to run the scenario we would have fit the definition of a “revolution.” In my view, a revolution tends to be spontaneous and the decision of a lot of individuals all at once. It’s not a government thing — that would be a civil war.
Steve Bannon, wargamer
But the Bannonites want a revolution, so let’s give them one in a scenario. They want it RIGHT NOW, too. They keep searching for “2021 revolution,” not “2024 revolution.” So, by “right now,” let’s say the end of the year.
I’m assuming that the MAGA New Right cocksuckers believe that since everyone THEY know wants to stop fucking their gun long enough to murder dem one of dem dar libtards, that everyone else in the country feels the same way, too. How do we get an actual “revolution” to take place before, say, the end of the year?
Well, a lot — and I mean — A LOT — would have to go wrong.
But one major data point might be the debt celling not being raised. That would be a gut punch to the US economy, which would be a pretty big step towards establishing the conditions for a “revolution.” Yet, still, I struggle the idea that good old boys would risk it all by taking up arms against the U.S. Government en mass to do an actual “revolution.”
I mean, fuck, the MAGA New Right cocksuckers who actually did something about how much they hate liberals — the January 6th Insurrectionists — have all turned out not to be hardened revolutionaries, but crybaby snowflakes who whine about having “anxiety.”
But, let’s press on. Let’s say we have something akin to an economic freefall in the United States starting in mid-October. The places I could maybe see something akin to a populist “revolution” happening would the more rural parts of Oregon and Idaho. Those guys already fuck their guns with their small dicks as it is — they’re chomping at the bit to take up arms.
So, I think maybe something that might be marketed as a “revolution” might start in the states of Oregon, Idaho and Montana. This is where I struggle. If really was a “revolution” you would, essentially, have new revolutionary governments spring up on a local basis that were popular enough that the Federal government couldn’t doing anything about them.
The hope of the MAGA New Right revolutionaries would be, I guess, that similar populist revolts would sweep through the country and Trump would start wearing a beret and Trumplandia would be established.
I guess, in the end, something I just can’t predict would have to happen in the near term for a MAGA New Right “revolution” to happen. Until then, we wait until the Fourth Turning of January 2025 to find out which direction we go.
People keep showing up at this site thinking about civil war and or revolution and I’ve decided to answer these searches each time I get one. So, let’s, again, address the probability of a Second American Civil War.
At the moment, the probability of a Second American Civil war is greater than zero. The question is not so much if one will happen, it’s if it is going to happen, when is it going to happen? For the time being, there are so many known unknowns that I can’t tell you one way or another if we’re going to slip peacefully into autocracy or we’re going to have a Second American Civil War. There are too many issues to be settled first.
Of course, it is possible that something out of the blue could force the issue and the country buckles rather abruptly for no other reason than, well, lulz, the MAGA New Right is already locked and loaded to murder like me in cold blood because I have “forced” them to.
But, at the moment, it could go either way. Either we slip peacefully into an autocracy wereby it’s Conventional Wisdom that Republicans will always be in power, no matter what, or the country collapses and we bomb the fuck out of ourselves because…Cancel Culture?
One thing that is not going to happen — our continued muddling through from crisis to crisis. I say this because the Republican Party, on a systemic level, is now a radical fascist organization that is only tempered by it being American. If it was in any other country, it would already be pushing journalists out of helicopters by now.
I do think, however, that things are moving faster than I expected. I don’t know what I feel, but I definitely feel a quickening. We’re racing towards a very dark future and I’m beginning to believe — somehow — we won’t make it to 2024 – 2025. That the decision might be made for us before then.
If we’re lucky, however, we still have a few more years to figure out what we’re going to do when face with either autocracy or civil war.
They say you go bankrupt gradually, then all at once and as such, I suggest you begin some sort of worst case scenario survival strategy. It could be that I’m way overthinking things and it’s the “autocracy” option instead of civil war that happens. So you won’t have much to worry about in 2025 as long as you keep your head down. And don’t rant about what a fucking cocksucker our new autocrat overlord is like I will.
As I keep saying, autocracy is so popular in the United States at the moment that we’re an autocracy without an autocrat.
And, but for Trump running for office again in 2024, we probably will avoid any major bloodshed, other than the blood of Lady Liberty’s slit throat rushing around our legs as Josh Hawley (or whomever) is sworn in on January 20th, 2025.
But Trump definitely seems as though he’s running again and he is such a fucking human political catastrophe that the United States may very well bomb itself into the Stone Age because of him, specifically, being the guy tasked by history to end our Republic.
He’s so fucking bad at even the most basic elements of autocracy that when the time comes for him to push off the cliff, he figures out some way whereby we turn around a fight back because we realize, at last, that we have it within our power to do so.
As such, you need to think about packing a bug out bag. Start getting the lay of the land around where you live. Do you know your neighbors? How well? Which ones have guns? What are their political views? How vocal about those views are they? How difficult will it be to get any medicines you need? What’s your Red Line for a freak out? What do you do, specifically, when you cross it?
I go on walks around my neighborhood on a regular basis and I’ve begun to imagine what might happen if things grew, uh, existential.
At the moment, we have a long time — a few years — to prepare for such an epic clusterufuck. And, yet, it’s also easy to imagine things getting extremely existential extremely quickly if there was some sort of unexpected domestic 9/11 attack that gave the MAGA New Right cocksuckers the in they needed to attempt to enforce Trumplandia upon us.
But a lot is up in the air. There are too many known unknowns as about and when we make the choice of autocracy or civil war. All I know is I can feel the cold, dark waters of an existential choice beginning to lap over my feet. As such, I’ve decided — again — to start reading books on the Civil War era and the rise of the Nazis in 1930s Germany.
That way, at least, I can have some sense in my mind of knowing how and when things are so fucked that I’m going to have to make some pretty deep decisions one way or another. And, sadly, so will all of us.
I get really frustrated when people search for “Second American Revolution” and endup at this site because there’s a big difference between a “revolution” and a “civil war.” The two are similar and may happen in tandem, but we’re a whole lot more likely to have a civil war soon than we are a revolution. I think I may be overly pedantic with that pet peeve, but I still have it.
Anyway, I have long said that our political system is so fragile at the moment that Something Bad will happen if there’s just a little bit extra pressure applied on it.
Well, we’re careening towards that type of pressure being applied to it with the existential game of chicken that Congressional Republicans are now playing with our economy. This happens all the time, I know but this time is different because Republicans have grown so radicalized that they would rather destroy the economy than in any way work on a bi-partisan basis.
As such, there’s a pretty good chance that we won’t raise the debt ceiling because of Republican assholery and the US — and global — economy will take a significant blow to the gut.
Here’s where things get interesting — given how fucked up everything is in the United States otherwise, would a severe economic downturn caused by the Republicans being fucking assholes be enough to incite the glorious “2021 revolution” that so many fucking cocksucker New Right assholes seem to crave.
That is a very good question.
My first reaction is, no. It would probably cause a lot more instability in the United States, but the MAGA New Right, for all their bluster about how much they want to murder people like me in cold blood, are actually — to date — a bunch of fucking snowflake crybabies.
Sure, there is a small minority of them that actually are willing to engage in political violence, but, over all, their impotent cocksuckers with small dicks. They talk a good talk, but when push comes to shove, they retreat to their bullshit echo chamber and whine about cancel culture.
That’s on an individual basis. On a systemic basis, things are lot different. The Republican Establishment, a whole, is now so radicalized and fascist that when the opportunity comes, they may very well start a civil war by pulling states out of the Union. But I struggle to see how, even with a debt ceiling crisis, how we would have some sort of MAGA New Right “revolution” where good old boys grabbed their guns and murdered people like me en masse as part of a popular uprising.
The cocksuckers just don’t have it in them.
So, as of now, my worst case scenario is we don’t raise the debt ceiling, the world economy crashes and the Republicans see huge gains in Congress in 2022. They turn around and impeach Biden and Harris and as we grow ever-closer to the beginning of the 2024 presidential election cycle, things really begin to grow more and more unstable.
To the point that by late 2024 – early 2025, we either slip peacefully into autocracy, or we bomb ourselves into oblivion by using WMD on ourselves as part of a Second American Civil War.
That, at least, is what I think may happen in the future as of right now.
I have long said that if The End comes, I’ll either be the first person to die on the first day or I’ll help bring back civilization. I made that joke for years, not thinking that maybe I might have to put it to the test in a deadly serious manner. Because, lulz, guess what — we’re in an existential crisis in the United States right now.
We’re careening towards a dark, dark future of either autocracy or civil war. At the moment, I still don’t know which one we’re going to end up with. But unless something Really Big happens and we have some sort of temporary military junta instead — we’re either going to slip peacefully into autocracy or bomb ourselves into the Stone Age.
If you don’t see this, you’re either willfully delusional, oblivious or in denial.
Thankfully, we have a few years to plot how freedom loving people are going to handle Steve Bannon’s tyrannical machinations. He’s doing it in the open and, honestly, he’s just playing a historical function — it could be anybody who was doing what he’s doing. He’s just the guy fate picked to have Trump’s ear.
One thing I have to stress is, a lot hinges on Trump running or not. If he doesn’t run, then we pick a peaceful slide into autocracy. And, for a lot of people who find autocracy appealing, once we live in an autocracy, they won’t even notice any difference. They can finally sleep soundly at night knowing the libs are, at last, owned for good and the Cancel Culture terror that “real” America has faced has ended.
I will survive.
It won’t be until much laters, when they, personally, have to deal with the downside of autocracy that they might grumble to those close to them that they regret being Good Germans. But by then, it will be way, way too late — especially for people like me.
But let’s say Trump does run in 2024. If he does, in my view, it won’t be so much that he runs as who he picks as his veep. His first decision will be, of course, does he co-op Ron DeSantis, or does he shiv him politically? If he shivs him politically, the case could be made that Gen. Mike Flynn would be exactly the type of wing nut that Trump would pick as his veep, because, well, Trump will be 80 or so in 2025 and who else to play America’s Putin, but a fucking traitor like Gen. Flynn?
Steve Bannon
And, yet, the real issue will be what a fucking catastrophe the 2024 presidential cycle is going to be. It’s not going to be a free and fair election because of fucking Steve Bannon and, as such, if we have Trump running around being an idiot, that, in itself, could be just the right amount of added pressure on our already rotting, fragile political system to cause us to buckle.
How do I plan to survive this?
Well, 2024 – 2025 is ways down the road and lot could change in my personal life by that point. But, in general, I’m probably follow the huge mass of humanity leave the South for the safer Northeastern states. I’m just going to follow them north to somewhere like NYC.
This is all very back-of-the-envelope, but I guess what I’m tell you, is either get a passport and leave the country or move to a state that fits your political views. Then hunkerdown and wait for the end of the United States as we know it.
Again — I don’t work for VOX, I don’t produce Tik-Toks with sharp received English vocal fry and I have no idea what you should do between now and 2024 to save yourself and the people you love.
Unfrozen Caveman Governor Ron DeSantis
You’re smart, you can figure it out.
But, for me, specifically, I’m on a hair trigger to start figuring out how, on a personal level, I can get out of where I live in Virginia. My sate is one of several that would likely collapse in the event of a severe Constitutional Crisis and my politics don’t fit the part of the state where I live.
And, yet, I won’t go anywhere unless something concrete has already happened. For instance, some sort of infrastructure designed to support domestic political refugees like me.
All I know is, I have a number of talents and when things grow existential, I might have an opportunity to shine.
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