I have no inside knowledge about what Trump may have known about the January 6th Insurrection, but I do have a sense of how he thinks. I also have noticed some things about him over the last five years of terror and here’s my general sense of what Trump knew — or didn’t know — about what happened on January 6th.
Given what Trump was ranting about leading up to the event, it seems safe to believe that the goal of the “plot” was to scare the shit out of Mike Pence specifically. So, in general, the plot was to gather a bunch of bonkers MAGA people together near the Capitol, give them a bunch of hype speeches then direct them to attack the Capitol where they would either a) simply buy them time b) succeed in scaring the shit out of Mike Pence so he wouldn’t certify the vote.
Other than that, there was a lot of vague activity with the general goal of either buying time or scaring Mike Pence, but I doubt Trump, himself, knew all that many details. Because, Trump is so incapable of keeping a secret that we would know specific what he did know! So when he tweeted something like “January 6th is going to be lit!” that’s a direct indication of what was rolling around Trump’s mind.
But there is a caveat to all of this.
One is, even if we learn specifically what Trump knew and when he knew it, Trump continues to be politically above the law so…lulz. There is absolutely nothing we can do to hurt Trump politically. He will continue to linger in the shadows of America politics, waiting to pop out to destroy American democracy once and for all.
But wait, there’s more! Even if somehow we magically end Trump’s political career, there are a dozen would-be autocrats who will use what they learned from what happened on January 6th, then do exactly the same thing or worse in an effort to nullify a Biden 2024 win.
There’s a lot of hype within the center-Left echo chamber about how Texas is “one day” going to swing Blue because of macro economic trends. All things being equal, if we were still a functioning liberal democracy — and if Texas Republicans were collectively lobotomized — this would be true.
But we’re not a functioning democracy and Texas Republicans know damn well they’re on the cusp of losing power if people vote so — they don’t want people to vote.
Texas Republicans are growing more and more autocratic in leaps and bounds to the point that I believe the only way they will ever allow Texas to turn Blue is if they’ve been destroyed and no longer have the ability to do anything about it. In other words, only after a Second American Civil War has destroyed the state of Texas as we know it and it’s being Reconstructed afterwards will Texas ever be allowed to vote for a Democratic president.
A Blue Texas would doom Republican hopes for the presidency to such an extent that not even Florida being a safe Red state now could help the situation. Add to this how fucking hysterical and anti-democratic Texas Republicans are on an systemic, existential basis and there is absolutely no fucking way they will ever allow the state to shift Blue peacefully.
The absolute white hot rage that Texas Republicans have about the mere notion of the state turning Blue is pretty much what’s going on in general with the national Republican Party. It is very tragic, but it’s clear to me now that only as the by product of a tragic, avoidable civil war will the United States ever be a functioning liberal democracy again. It’s possible that the U.S. Military might step in to fix all the problems necessary to get us back on the democratic track, but unlikely.
So you can add an autocratic Texas to the long list of macro trends that indicate we’re either going to slip peacefully into the autocratic rule of a white Christian ethno state — or we’re going to have a fucking civil war.
I have no idea what is going to happen at this point.
From what I’m able to glean, the MAGA New Right wants us to believe that COVID19 is just part of modern life now AND they want to attack the Biden Administration for “not doing as well” as the Trump Administration did handling the pandemic.
My reaction to the MAGA New Right’s views on COVID19.
As such, the MAGA New Right is absolutely against mask and vaccine mandates and changing people’s lives in any way to address the lingering COVID19 crisis — and yet also wants to scream bloody murder that Biden hasn’t solve it, which apparently Trump was on his way to doing but for the evil Deep State “stealing” the 2020 election from him.
Now, I have to note that for the time being, this working — and may ultimately work to the extent necessary to flip Congress for the MAGA New Right in 2022. So, in essence, this paradoxical media narrative will be a success.
And, yet, the MAGA New Right has a problem — there is a real risk that the metrics that matter most will start to hurt their political chances. If it becomes clear that something, anything has to be done to mitigate the COVID19 uptick currently happening in Red States, then there might be a frantic too-little, too-late struggle to reverse course in mid stream.
This will be even more the case if some variant pops out that blows past our existing vaccine regimen and throws us back to square one.
But as it stands, Republicans literally would rather have a lot of people die of COVID than miss a chance to “own the libs.” To that extent, the MAGA New Right is a literal personality death cult.
If people like Ron DeSantis have a come-to-Jesus moment about COVID19, it will be so sudden, so unexpected that we will all be left in shock. And, honestly, the only way that will happen is if they see some sort of political advantage — a way to “own the libs,” if you will — by doing so.
I continue to see a lot of shock and puzzlement on the part of Twitter liberals as to the behavior of putative 2024 Republican presidential nominee, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. But to me, DeSantis’ behavior seems completely logical relative to his goal of being elected president. Here’s why:
Negative Polarization Is Now Absolute I can’t stress enough how absolute negative polarization is now in the United States, at least from my practical experience. It’s so absolute that the base of the Republican Party would rather people die than accept that COVID19 is a national health crisis. So, in a sense, yes, the MAGA New Right is a personality death cult. The wild thing is that, on an individual basis, the average MAGA New Right person doesn’t see themselves as being racist or misogynistic or any of the things that collective the MAGA New Right obviously is.
2022 (Or 2024) Is A Long Ways Away Politically DeSantis is calculating that given how popular being an autocrat to “own the libs” is with the base of the Republican Party that he can actively work to kill voters and by the time 2022 (or 2024) rolls around it will all be a lulz. The pandemic will be over and the only thing stopping him from slingshotting himself into the presidency will be the 300 pound sack of shit known as Donald Trump. Lulz! Autocracy Is Popular Even though most MAGA people don’t really think in terms of autocracy, they definitely support it. My fear of a white Christian ethno state based on “blood and soil” is their dream — they fully embrace the “cruelty is the point” of Trumplandia. Of course, what will happen is autocracy will arrive and they will be shocked when a family member is murdered in cold blood by ICE or they can’t say what they like freely in a bar. But by that point, it will be too late and they, at least will have “owned the libs” forever. The National MAGA New Right Electorate What DeSantis is doing is the political equivalent of finger banging the national MAGA New Right base. They love, love, LOVE all his “lib owning” and autocratic, thuggish behavior that puts him on the national stage. They want MAGA without Trump so everything is strictly a policy debate. If that’s the case, then they win because they can both sides everything or simply shrug and say fuck you, lib.
I’ve seen enough. The conditions are now in place for some sort of major political-related tragedy to happen just about any moment in the United States. I have no inside information from the Dark Web (or whatever) I just have a hunch. The MAGA New Right’s rhetoric has reached a point where it’s just a matter of time before someone takes them both literally and seriously and someone important gets hurt.
A lot, of course, would hinge on who got hurt, how badly and how. I don’t like to articulate exactly the kinds of things I fear might happen because I don’t want to put it out into the universe, but needless to say, whatever happened might be Big.
Oh boy.
If such a tragedy happened, here what I think would we see. First, there would be silence on the part of the MAGA New Right. They might vaguely say something about “thoughts and prayers” but that would be it. They would be hunkered down, trying to figure out what their talking points would be.
After about 24 – 48 hours of radio silence, the media narrative they would want us all to believe would be it was the act of someone who was “mentally unstable” and nothing they said or did had anything to do with it — even if there was some sort of manifesto that directly said they did! In other words, for their bullshit echo chamber, they would nullify reality with this event just like they did with January 6th.
“It wasn’t me,” they would say in unison until the faithful believed it.
Now, this has always worked in the past. But there is a small chance that if the Something Big I fear might happened was Big Enough that this wouldn’t work. Remember, the two sides are so absolute in their views now that politics only functions on the edges. So, if it was absolutely proven that Trump’s ranting about being re-instated was specifically and directly responsible for someone getting hurt, then the reaction of that crucial 1% of the electorate that open minded would determine everything.
There’s a huge but to all of this — the MAGA New Right is a macro issue. So whatever happened would have to be not just big, but fucking HUGE to actually put them on the back foot for, say, an election cycle or so. Again, while I have a few scenarios in my mind, I just don’t like to write them out.
So, in general, I think we’re just too divided for any type of tragedy to unite us, even briefly. It would have to be international terrorism, and only then it would be for about 24 hours. Or, if it was domestic political terrorism, it would have to be a huge fucking event.
In general, we’re fucking doomed. The macro trends are too powerful and the trendlines are all pointing towards the existential choice of autocracy, military junta or civil war.
One of the talking points you find within the center-Left Twitter echo chamber is how damaging FOX News is. I agree with this talking point, and, yet I feel it needs to be put in context.
Because of the nature of our society and government — we are supposed to be a liberal democracy, you know — FOX News exists because there’s an audience. In fact, what’s worse, the audience that it makes so much money scaring is growing more and more interested in watching North Korean-style propaganda like OANN and NewsMax that has the barest connection to reality.
That’s what they want, they want to be lied to. Or, put another way, for them the lie is the truth.
And, so, if FOX News had a come-to-Jesus moment and started acting more like CNN, it would lose all its viewers to OANN and NewsMax. How do you fix THAT problem?
FOX News is a symptom of one of a number of macro trends that are lurching us down the inevitable path of the existential choice of autocracy, military junta or civil war. All the conditions are there, it’s just a matter of what the catalyst will be.
But it will happen — something’s gotta give.
At the moment, a lot of people who poo-poo my “doom shit” do so because they simply can’t process, can’t imagine, the idea that the United States, the most powerful country in the world, could face the type of existential choice I keep ranting about.
In short, they have no vision.
And, yet, I have to admit that I can’t predict the future. There is no reveled truth. I could be wrong. Or, more accurately, when we do drift peacefully into autocracy the people who laugh at me won’t even realize what’s happened because their, specific life, hasn’t change all that much for the time being.
When it does, they’ll get upset in private and never, ever admit that I was right all along.
On a practical level, at least in my own personal life, American politics is dead. I have all but stopped talking politics with my far more conservative relatives. This is very bad because it means the very heart of our democracy — individual interactions where some sort of consensus is developed — no longer beats.
Trump is to blame for this clusterfuck. He’s to blame because by taking the most extreme position possible — and dragging the vast majority of conservatives with him — negative polarization has reached such a Singularity that any discussion of politics with someone you disagree with inevitable turns into a screaming match.
Now, obviously, this was already happening because of how insane the GOP turned after Obama won a second term, but the rise of Trump didn’t exactly help the situation any.
Instead of politics we just have a general drift towards a dark and unknown future.
Who organized the Pence Gallows in front of the Capitol? Sometimes, the biggest tell about an event comes from something we simply take for granted. In this case, it took some planning to set up a gallows for Pence on January 6th. That thing didn’t just magically appear out of nowhere. It suggests that there was a specific point to the insurrection — scare the shit out of Mike Pence so he wouldn’t certify the vote.
Why did Trump give Jim Jordan the Medal of Freedom on January 11? Again, it’s easy to dismiss this by saying Jordan was such a long-term toady of Trump’s that of course he would get the Medal of Freedom before Trump left office. And, yet, the case could be made that Jordan did something specific in that prompted Trump in his zero-sum-game mind to feel compelled to give Jordan a “gift” in exchange for…what? Silence? Actively fucking up any investigation into what happened January 6th? Why did a Proud Boy leader visit Trump in the days before January 6th? This is one of those things where what actually happened is kind of nebulous. Did a Proud Boy leader get a tet-a-tete with Trump in the White House? What did they talk about? There are a lot of conflicting stories about all of this, but someone needs to ask some questions to figure out what happened. How much did Trump know about the plot for January 6th? It is reasonable to believe that Trump was the driving force for what happened on January 6th….but just like with the Russia conspiracy stuff, it was probably very chaotic and haphazard. Trump probably would dip in to a meet every once in a while to give “his people” a general goal then wonder off. This gives him legal “plausible deniability” because all he had to do was incite the mob — he likely didn’t know exactly that was going to happen. He just knew there was a good chance they would attack to Capitol in such a way that it could scare the shit out of Pence so he didn’t do his job.
Long Answer If you’re searching for some sort of easy answer as to if the Red States would win a theoretical Second American Civil War, I just don’t have it for you. You probably are out at the cabin, drinking Miller Lite with the guys and someone gets a little too worked up about Vaccine Passports or Cancel Culture or whatever the fuck it is that cocksucker MAGA New Right idiots are upset about at the moment.
You pull up your phone and ask Google, “Will Red States win the civil war?“
And so, here you are.
First and foremost, you’re going to have to make concrete your hazy, abstract thoughts about a “civil war” and give me some sort of war aims. Even more important, is the issue of why do Red States even need a civil war in the first place? What, specifically, would make Red State people think that they need to start killing their fellow Americans in an organized manner because of their political views?
As I tell my conservative relatives at every opportunity, all Red States have to do is be patient and they’ll get everything they ever wanted and then some. Blue State leadership — at the moment — is divided, tepid and weak-willed and, as such, Red States could very easily establish a MAGA New Right autocracy without firing a shot. It’s when you leave the realm of politics and start making things existential that Red States have a severe problem on their hands.
But, lulz, the MAGA New Right glorifies political violence and is itching for the opportunity to eliminate the “liberal problem,” so it’s something that is at the forefront of a lot of Red State people’s minds.
If you’re still eager for a Second American Civil War and want to know if Red States will win it, I need to know what your war aims would be. What’s the point of the civil war relative to you? With the First American Civil War, the war aims of the South were clear — independence in order to protect slavery. With any Second American Civil War, Red State war aims seem extremely abstract.
Red States so hate the way Blue State people think that they’re willing to risk everything for the opportunity to physically harm them en masse. But why? Why do that when you could simply be patient and have the country slide peacefully into autocracy. It appears that the glorification of political violence on the part of the MAGA New Right is nothing more than what you would expect as part of a Fourth Turning — it exists because it exists.
Back to war aims.
I’m having to do some political reverse engineering here, but here goes. The first problem that the MAGA New Right Red States face when gaming out a civil war is, at the core of their desire for a Second Civil War is a severe existential fear of the browning of America. So, after the initial political violence began, it would soon become clear that establishing some sort of white Christian ethno state would be the chief Red State war aim.
As such, Red State people, who to date have been getting everything they want via traditional politics will get a rude awaking — POC will freak the fuck out the moment the MAGA New Right makes it clear they want to “put them in their place.” Hence — a race war will begin. And part and parcel of that race war will be crimes against humanity on the part of Red State governments (collectively known as Trumplandia) who will begin to systematically kill POC in a frantic effort to maintain control.
So, right off the bat, Red States have a race war to deal with — they just don’t have a unified polity because of that.
Then, you have two other major issues: population and economics. If California stays in the Union at the onset of a Second American Civil War it, unto itself, would be enough to allow Blue States to dominate everything from the West Cost to Texas in the South to the Mississippi River in the center to Minnesota to the north.
Add to this, in general, the Blue States have far bigger economies and more dense populations geographically and things aren’t looking good for Red States.
But if you STILL want to have a Second American Civil War because you “just want to be left alone” then Red States have a few things going for them. First is, Blue States aren’t really taking seriously how deranged Red States are going into any Second American Civil War. So, it is possible that some sort of sucker punch could happen that would knock Blue States off their feet long enough for Red States to consolidate power — still a problem: race.
Additionally, it’s almost inevitable that WMD will be used by both sides, so you could sketch out a scenario whereby the MAGA New Right is simply so much more fanatical than the Blue States that when push comes to shove on the use of WMD, Red States win because they’re willing to vaporize more people.
The argument could also be made that if Trumplandia simply wants to leave the Union to form its own white Christian ethno state, then, yes, Red States would then probably come pretty close to achieving their war aim. There would be a massive migration of POC out of Trumplandia, but the MAGA New Right hates POC to begin with, so win-win, right?
And, remember, none of this clusterfuck would happen in a vacuum. The DPRK could lop nuke our way to scramble things. WW3 would probably break out during the second civil war, the list goes on.
So, no, Red States wouldn’t win the Second American Civil War, or if they did, they would severely regret the whole thing by the time they “won.”
Sometimes, I grow very frustrated with Twitter liberals. They went to Harvard and shit and yet relative to what I, a mere hayseed rube Internet crank rando believe, they are completely clueless. A prime example of this is what’s going on with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.
Ron DeSantis
All his thuggish behavior that is putting the lives of his own electorate in danger is exactly what not just the MAGA New Right base in Florida wants, but the NATIONAL MAGA New Right base wants in the abstract. The more thuggish he is, the better in their eyes.
They want autocracy. They want to “own the libs” no matter what the consequences are. And the more DeSantis’ political fortunes improve because of him being a demonstrable autocratic cocksucker, the more every elected Republican official who sees the next president when they look at themselves in the mirror in the morning will feel obliged to one up him.
Autocratic thuggery is now the sweet spot of modern Republican politics. Negative polarization is so absolute, so extreme now within Republican ranks that even the most overheated MAGA New Right fascist rhetoric could very well become policy once a Republican inevitable becomes president again. Then all my “doom shit” won’t look so hysterical.
Anyway, DeSantis knows what he’s doing. At this point, the only issue is if Trump co-ops him or the two of them have a political deathmatch to see who gets to be the first American autocrat.
Of course, 2025 is a long ways away. There are about a dozen other would-be autocrats who are going to fight like hell to get the chance to come to power in 2025 and….just never leave office for any reason. As such, DeSantis doesn’t have a complete lock on being our first true American Autocrat, but he’s definitely at the moment the chief contender.
We are so fucked. So very, very fucked.
I have no ready answers for you. I have no VOX Tik-Tok video spoken in formal Twitter liberal received English. I just have my two eyes and ears and simply “doom shit” logic to use.
We’re going to have to have some sort of United Front or hope we can get the type of radical moderate behavior that happened around the time Lincoln decided to free the slaves. Something gotta give. Something big has to happen, otherwise, DeSantis will become an American Augustus and establish a American Empire.
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