For some time now, the MAGA Right has lobbed the threat of a “civil war” at anyone who dare oppose them. Then, of course, they turn around and claim it’s Blues who want a civil war. It’s all very curious.
The issue of a Second American Civil War is difficult to game out because what idiot MAGA people mean by using the term and what will actually happen are two different things. What MAGA MEANS by using the term “civil war” is “I’m so worked up about the browning of America and the increased economic, sexual and political agency of women I’m daydreaming about being able to murder people I disagree with politically without being charged.”
But in reality, I….just don’t know. As I’ve said before, there are two ways we’ll have a civil war — either because Trump loses and he demands a National Divorce because he wants to stay out of prison, OR Trump is re-elected and he’s so ham-handed in his tyranny that he gets deposed….which leads to Red States leaving the Union.
There is a HUGE difference between blathering on about a civil war on Fox News and actually risking your life for what you believe in in the real world. And, at this point, I just don’t know.
There are just too many different ways things could work out. It could be that even if Trump does lose and he demands a National Divorce, no one will listen to him and, lulz, we punt our structural political problems down the road another four years.
And it could be that so many smug Twitter liberals leave the country when Trump is re-elected that, welp, that’s it. Trump will be a Red King over Blue states and that will be that — America will join Turkey, Hungary and Russia as an autocratic state.
While I continue to fall apart, I’ve managed to pause my physical decline long enough for me to stabilize the first act of the third draft of my first novel…again. It’s been a real struggle, but I *think* I have a pretty good sequence of events laid out.
I continue to want to work on some other ideas. I’ve got three solid scifi concepts rolling around in my mind that I may piviot to whenever I need to king of chill out for a little while. But I have got to get out of the first act of this novel ASAP.
If I’m going to work on the rest of the novel — which I’ve written twice already — I’m going to have to get out of the first act. The clock is ticking. And there continue to be a lot — A LOT — of known unknowns that could either slow me down or dramatically change the context of the years’ long project with little or no notice.
I really — REALLY — need to wrap this third draft up by no later than April 1st if I’m going to query in the fall….just as America makes a decision as to if it’s going to become a MAGA-themed autocracy or fall into revolution / civil war.
Fox News is at it again. They definitely seem to want to spark a civil war for no other reasons than “vibes.” They — and the rest of the MAGA Right — spend all their fucking time blathering about how Blues are going to “force” them into a civil war and then they come out with bullshit like this.
Ugh.
I don’t know what to tell you. It definitely seems as though we’re careening towards a very dark future in late 2024, early 2025. The seeds are being sown for a civil war or revolution at some point within the next 18 months or so. I definitely don’t want any such thing to happen, but we have to accept that it’s very possible.
The latest version of MidJourney is alarmingly-good at producing high-res images. And it’s only a matter of time before those still images are put together to create the moving picture — movies. But for the fact that politically the United States may collapse into chaos in late 2024, early 2025, I would say that Hollywood’s goose is cooked.
At least the human part of it.
But just like the development of TV was delayed by WW2, it’s possible that an American Second Civil War / WW3 may delay the roll out of AI. It could be that not until that particular political clusterfuck is sorted out that before AGI is reached and we have to deal with the economic implications of all that.
WASHINGTON D.C. — In a stunning historic series of events, the House of Representatives yesterday named comedian Jon Stewart as Speaker of the House. Within moments of this surreal vote, a joint statement by Speaker Stewart and the Joint Chiefs of Staff declared that because of the 14th Amendment both the presidency and the vice presidency were officially vacant.
See reportage of the beginning of World War 3 on pages 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.
In line with this decision, Speaker Stewart was sworn in as 47th President of the United States in a nod to the legal theory that Trump was never president in the first place. The Red State reaction to these stunning turn of events was swift. Last night saw the a majority of the Red Southern states call up secessionist conventions.
The Commonwealth of Virginia, however, was wracked with such political violence that no decision could be made about calling such a convention there.
Meanwhile, the nation was gripped with the fear of a race war in the South because of the massive political difference between Red whites and Blue African Americans. A number of notable Southern African American politicians call for peace and calm. But the rage of the African American community within much of the South was proving difficult to contain as massive crowds attempted to obstruct the ability for secessionist conventions to be held at all.
Now-President Jon Stewart gave an address to the nation from the Oval Office making it clear that any attempt on the part of Red States to secede was illegal and would be dealt with in an appropriate manner.
“We defeated secession once, we can do it again,” President Stewart said.
I’m reading a lot about the rise of the Nazi Party these days — as one does — and the most telling thing about it all is what a Great Man of History Hitler was. He did not just drift through history, he bent it to his will. Even though he was unfocused and sometimes lazy, when the time came to strike, he was willing to do the hard work necessary to further his greater political ambition.
MEANWHILE, malignant ding-dong Trump is nothing more than a vessel, an avatar for white Christian (male) rage over the browning of America and the increasing sexual, political and economic agency of women. He really doesn’t have to do anything. His followers imbue him with their hopes and dreams because they see him as a “fighter” who will “own the libs” every single opportunity he has.
But, if you’re not a member of the MAGA cult, it’s clear that Trump is very very dumb and very very lazy. He is so lazy and has a such poor abstract cognitive abilities that he had four years to consolidate autocratic rule in the United States — that was what he was elected to do by his supporters in the first place — and he waited until the very, very, very, very last moment to actually do anything.
That is not at all what someone like Hitler would have done.
And, now, we have Trump’s second attempt.
If — and this is a big if — Trump wins re-election in 2024, then he will have thousands of toadies willing to be a MAGA “deep state” that will corrupt the administration of justice and power to the point that the United States will join Turkey, Hungary and Russia as just another autocratic state.
But there two issues when thinking about this.
One is, while I fear if Trump loses that he will demand a National Divorce — and, as such a civil war — to keep his sorry ass out of jail, he is so unpredictable, and so lazy, that it could be that for all his ranting about the need for a National Divorce in late 2024 if he loses…nothing happens. We punt our severe structural problems down the road about four years and all my “hysterical doom shit” will be laughed at. (I really want this outcome!)
Meanwhile if Trump WINS, things really get unpredictable because he won’t be smooth about the implementation of autocracy like a President DeSantis might be. He will go for the jugular of American democratic institutions in such a way that he will piss of A LOT of people who would otherwise just shrug and let him slowly consolidate power.
If Trump literally starts to snatch political opponents of the street in early 2025 there will be a lot of people — many of whom even voted for him — who will sit up and take notice. A lot — A LOT of Traditionalists just want brown kids put back in cages and they would be horrified if Trump used the weaponized ICE infrastructure to put Jews, the gay and the mentally ill in camps as well.
A lot of Traditionalists mean well but when things get personal, they will, at last, reach a red line that they simply haven’t had to date. When a Traditionalist’s bonkers relative is sent to a camp to “make sure they take their medication” without due process then Trump is going to have a problem.
This brings up an interesting situation — if Trump really does try to deport 20 million undocumented people in the United States, that is going to cause a massive amount of political, social and economic chaos. And without anyone to stop him trying to do this, all that chaos is going to not only rile a lot of Blues and Traditionalists up, but it will give rise of Radical Moderates who won’t just rant on Twitter about how upset they are — they will take direct action like General Strikes. (NOT ADVOCATING ANYTHING!)
Another issue — what the fuck is going to happen with the U.S. Military? That’s the thing I keep learning about with Hitler. The SA were instrumental to his consolidation of power in 1933. Trump coming into office in 2025 won’t have any sort of build-out paramilitary group at his disposal. He’ll have the U.S. Military, but the American military is, at its heart, a democratic institution and I struggle to believe it will be all that happy with being Trump’s goons.
Of course, it’s possible Trump will lean into weaponizing the existing ICE infrastructure, but even then the US is a huge, decentralized nation with a well established democratic tradition. Trump’s dream of ruling Blue portions of the country as a Red King will take time to implement, even under the best of conditions.
So if Trump wins in 2024, I simply can’t tell you what might happen in 2025. It’s very possible that Trump could be his own worst enemy. He will be so hateful and excited to strike back and everyone he feels has slighted him that he will make a sizable portion of the American population very, very upset.
But I can’t predict that future. I’m just *trying* make an educated guess.
There is something very curious about the reasoning of the anti-anti-Trump popinjays who blather on about how horrible it is that the Colorado Supreme Court took the wording of the 14th Amendment at face value and banned Trump from the ballot.
It really seems as though they think Trump should be above the law. They rather wanly use the fall back position of, “let the people decide,” and, yet Trump keeps breaking the law so they tie themselves into a logical pretzel to explain why what we all know to be true, isn’t true. Yes, Trump broke the law. And yes, Trump incited an Insurrection on January 6th.
But to according to anti-anti-Trump conservatives, holding Trump accountable is The End Times. All of this leads me to wonder if they have *any* red line. Is there *anything* Trump could possibly do that would make them side with small-d-democratic forces in opposition to Trump?
And it gets worse.
What happens should Trump be re-elected and he goes full-tyrant on Blues? Are they going to sit on their hands when Trump weaponizes the existing ICE infrastructure to put not only undocumented people in camps, but Jews, the mentally ill and gay people?
Will even that be acceptable? Will they just shrug and say, “Well, that’s what people voted for.” It’s all very sad because most anti-anti-Trump people are smart and well educated.
There is still a chance that Trump won’t be re-elected in 2024. I can’t predict the future, no one can. And it’s very, very possible that some sort of unexpected 2020-like “Third Way” will pop out of nowhere at some point in 2024 that allows us to avoid either MAGA autocracy or revolution / civil war in 2025.
But.
All signs as of late 2023 point to Trump being re-elected. And Trump has some pretty tyrannical things planned once he’s back in office. The key thing for me is Americans will still have agency. It’s not like Blues will just shrug and let Trump rule over them like a Red King.
I long thought it possible that it would be BLUES not REDS who started a civil war. Now I realize that’s just not what Blues would do. They are far more likely to essentially start some sort of “revolution” than pull states out of the Union in defiance of Tyrant Trump. (Of course, if that Glorious Revolution is successful that, unto itself, could cause a civil war because Red States would start to leave the Union.)
I have no idea how things would work out, but I do know that Trump is such a dingus that in all his tyrannical thrashing around in 2025, he would probably so piss Blues off that Something Would Happen In Response. It might be a General Strike. It might be that the U.S. Military would balk at being Red King Trump’s goons in Blue parts of the country — invoking the Insurrection Act is not some sort of magic fascist pixie dust.
All in all, if Trump is re-elected things will get…bumpy. And, in the end, it could be that any attempt to depose Trump will fail and we’ll endup like Hungary, Turkey and Russia. (I’m not advocating anything! I’m just musing about potential futures.)
No one in late 2019 could have predicted that a combination of a global pandemic and Joe Biden being the Democratic nominee would be enough to fell Trump. Also, people like me in late 2019 totally overestimated Trump’s willingness to use some pretty basic autocratic measures to steal the 2020 election.
Trump is so fucking lazy that he waited until the very, very, very last moment to try to steal the election, rather than, say, indict Joe Biden in the summer of 2020.
Anyway. All of this leads me to wonder if there is a similar “Third Way” possible in 2024 that doesn’t involve a transition into MAGA autocracy or some sort of descent into civil war / revolution.
Whatever the thing that evokes a “Third Way” is, it’s going to be stunning. It is going to have to be VERY BIG and totally unpredictable. There are two main scenarios I can think of.
The first one is that Trump loses and despite all his ranting about the need for National Divorce, no one listens to him and he, in fits and starts, drifts into political obscurity. Then we all wait another four years for MAGA fascists to try AGAIN to turn us into a white Christian ethnostate.
The other, far darker possible set of scenarios is Something Bad happens to either Biden or Trump which totally throws all of our basic assumptions about the 20204 race out the window. I don’t even like to think about what that Something Bad scenario might be, but both men are old as fuck and Trump, in particular, is a fat fuck.
Any type of dark scenario like that would so change the basic assumptions we have about the 2024 race that all my dystopian hellscapes for 2024 – 2025 would be very moot.
All I want is to live in a traditional liberal democracy. That shouldn’t be too much to ask.
Last night saw the usual suspects of the anti-anti-Trump Right out in force, bitching and moaning about the Colorado Supreme Court decision barring Trump from running for POTUS.
The key thing to remember is all of their arguments against the decision were non-sensical. They all boiled down to these nattering nabobs of negativism being annoyed that the center-Left had something to crow about for a night. That’s it. They really had nothing to say that made any sense.
I will agree with their general sentiment, however, that no one is going to save us from Trump. We have to save ourselves. But the issue for me is even if we defeat Trump at the ballot box like the Good Lawd intended, there’s a good chance that we’ll have a National Divorce, and as such, a civil war, because Trump will start to scream about how we need one to keep him, specifically, out of prison.
So, I don’t know what to tell you. The United States continues to careen towards autocracy or civil war / revolution. I suppose there’s a chance, like what happened in 2020, that we’ll avoid such a dire outcome, but….whatever it is that happens to cause that to be the case would be jaw dropping and extremely historic in a jarring way.
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